Boris Johnson, parties and the loss of the Ethics Adviser, part 7

[DuncinToffee]

Previous thread

www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/4560961-boris-johnson-parties-and-the-sue-gray-report-fall-out-thread-6?page=40&reply=117920731

New Westminster Voting Intention🚨

📈11pt Labour lead

🌳Con 31 (-3)
🌹Lab 42 (+2)
🔶LD 10 (=)
🎗️SNP 4 (=)
🌍Gre 5 (+1)
⬜️Other 7 (-1)

2,050 UK adults, 17-19 Jun

(chg from 10-12 Jun)

https://twitter.com/savantacomres/status/1540029760067231744?s=21&t=C56jE2Zt9gGii_5P2eqM7A

I'm struggling to believe Theresa May would willingly sit down for a meal with Boris at the same table. I wonder if he's just assuming he can bully her into it?

I have to say I was trying to think of when Cameron and BJ had publicly crossed paths since brexit.

Beth Rigby

POLLS HAVE CLOSED

Coming from Kigali in 10pm news

- Wakefield. Lab sources say “feeling good” hope for solid win
- Tiverton. LD sources say the swing is big, but can’t call it. Told “going to the wire” & LDs spoke to 20k voters today
- Tories on Tiverton: “bad on the doors”

When the North Shropshire by election took place, I didn't dare look at the results... I feel the same now.

if the Tories win by one vote they will crow to high heaven.

I'm a natural pessimist so I'm taking any early news from either by-election with a pinch of salt 🧂 I agree they'll crow if they win even by a single vote. It's worth remembering that they have had a huge majority of 24,000 in Tiverton - it's an enormous undertaking.

I note the Telegraph's front page picture of Carrie Johnson looking fawning at (presumably) Johnson. Odd timing given Simon Case's published letter admitting he was scouting for work her with the Palace.

They had a majority of 22949 in North Shropshire, which is not much less.
Back in the lat 90s the Lib Dem came within a whisker of winning.

The difference over N Shropshire is that this time the Tories aren't anything like as complacent, and have chosen a local candidate.

But I feel like I did when I though Trump would win - absolutely sick, because early results look promising for him.

"First ballot boxes in the Tiverton and Honiton by-election now being counted at the Crediton sports hall.

Pretty much every teller for the Lib Dems and Tories recording an even split in the vote.

It’s going to be tight."

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1540096426495148032?s=21&t=C56jE2Zt9gGii_5P2eqM7A

I have been to Counts. In the 2017 election we could see that the UKIP vote had collapsed but it was very very tight between the LibDems and Tories. At the verification stage it looked as though the LibDems had just won, but you couldn't really tell. In the end the Lib Dems clinched it.

They may well be in the same situation in T & H - and it depends which ballot boxes your observers are watching - the results can be quite skewed.

That's really interesting. Can anyone turn up to watch or do you need a purpose?

Can anyone turn up to watch or do you need a purpose?

No, you do need to have a purpose. Covid messed it up a bit, but usually the parties each have an agreed number of observers that are allowed in.

Latest from Wakefield are reports of shaking of heads and "blasphemous" remarks from Tory activists watching the votes coming in

Good question. I've been a party observer at local council elections (1997 iirc before the general election). I seem to remember lots of party workers turned up. I don't remember having my id checked. Looooong time ago!

Yeah but Tiverton?

I'd like to attend one just to see it in action.

I'll be awake at the (predicted) time of the results coming in. Be lovely to have the same feeling I had when Doug Jones got in in Alabama .

The 1997 council one I went to was like a party when the results were announced. The actual count watching wasn't the best fun I've had.

I don't remember having my id checked. Looooong time ago!

They only checked our names, we didn't actually have to produce any ID. Then we were given a wristband to allow us into the actual count. It was in the local leisure centre, the cafe opened all night, the TVs were going, so there was a lot of going in and out, but you did have to show the wristband.

And the Tories gradually became more and more glum as the night wore on. The results were announced at 6 a m. It was a long night.

Maybe I don't quite have the stamina!

Right I'm taking the dog out and sleeping with my fingers crossed.

The local elections were a bit of a hoot, because the Tories had fallen out and split into two factions. Who sat at opposite ends of the room and didn't speak to each other. They were slaughtered anyway, so even more long faces.

Sam Coates on Tiverton

Very very early indications from the count is that things are looking good for the Lib Dems in Tiverton & Honiton.

Be careful - early counting can mislead, & this is based on sampling - but at least one major party believes the Libs have bagged what wd be a record breaking win

Parties seem to agree Lib Dems doing better in towns, Tories better in rural areas

No surprise there but there had been some Lib Dem concern about Tiverton itself

Estimates on postal votes broadly even - they wd have been heavily skewed Tory at GE 2019

Long way to go yet.

Parties seem to agree Lib Dems doing better in towns, Tories better in rural areas
Tallies with my experience of Oxfordshire seats. The towns go for LibDems, the villages Tories.

Fingers crossed the Conservatives have a massive loss

Hmm everyone seems to be calling T&H for LibDems but it's not done yet.

I think that's a pretty decisive Labour win in Wakefield.