Ukraine Invasion: Part 27

[MagicFox]

27th thread, thanks for the continued company and analysis all

I think the British press are exploiting the situation to fan the flames of hatred towards Germany and Macron. It's pretty unpleasant.

@Ijsbear · Today 21:46
wartranslated.com/russian-sentiment-towards-the-war-in-ukraine-is-changing/

this guy translates intercepted chat between soldiers but he also observes and now and then comments on trends he sees. Far as I can see he's not hasty in his conclusions.

Thank you for that link. I hope he is right about a gradual change of tone.

I read through some of his translated intercepted calls from Russian soldiers to which he had alluded to, and some blogs(?). There is one about a battalion more or less destroying itself and it said that Chechens refused to help in that fight against the Ukrainians because they weren’t paid enough.

The blogs by Gerkhin seem exact, intelligent and balanced in the picture they give of the invasion and the state of affairs in the Donbas region, the difficulties and staggered progress which he sees continuing for a long time. He mentioned the desperate condition of the DPR soldiers who are exhausted and being used as meat. I did notice he also referred to very brave teachers and musicians among them who (in my reading )didn’t seem like conscripts.

@TargusEasting

That wiki page (with the caveat it's wiki so treat with some caution) is quite interesting, not just with regard to Germany but also with regard to the contributions other nations are making.

I think the Chechen comment I saw - that they were not being paid enough [ to help the group of Russian soldiers in a particular fight] - might not have been related to salary in any sense, but to the fact they considered it a suicide mission which they wouldn’t go on for any amount of money.

I think the British press are exploiting the situation to fan the flames of hatred towards Germany and Macron. It's pretty unpleasant.

So the Brexit theme continues.

Having said that the UK is not the only country to have been scathing towards Germany and France. Perhaps it's more of a PR problem, but the Eastern European countries haven't been impressed generally.

Spain's contribution is woeful :o

From Business Ukraine magazine on Twitter:

“Russia has destroyed a major Ukrainian grain export terminal in Mykolaiv that plays a crucial role in international food security. This targeted attack is further evidence that Putin is weaponising global famine in a bid to blackmail the international community.”

https://mobile.twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1533382115336790016

How long since Putin said there was no obstacle to Ukraine shipping their grain via sea ports?

Haven’t there been some feelings of Germany being slow to deliver coming from Poland, who gave Ukraine tanks on the understanding that Germany would then give Poland tanks to replace them? It seems there may have been a misunderstanding about how Germany would fulfil this promise.

Re Germany and the tanks promised to Poland
Germany ‘flabbergasted’ at Poland’s accusation of broken promise on tanks – POLITICO

www.politico.eu/article/berlin-flabbergasted-poland-accusation-broken-promise-tank/
www.politico.eu/article/berlin-flabbergasted-poland-accusation-broken-promise-tank/amp/

@BringBackCoffeeCreams

I think the British press are exploiting the situation to fan the flames of hatred towards Germany and Macron. It's pretty unpleasant.

It is indeed...hence my comment re the wiki article...

In terms of French materiel support the UK MSM have quietly ignored the likes of Caesar and also other "kit" that has been delivered without much if any fanfare from anyone at the Elysee.

As far as Mr Macron himself, he's pretty much automatically a figure of hate for some in Westminster, nothing new there...

I do think somebody in the west needs to be on the phone to Putin occasionally. Mr Macron is obviously not in a position to offer anything the Ukrainians won't give but the content of the calls themselves will probably be useful to those who are looking for an insight into Putins state of mind...

Oh and on a slightly trivial note - the "little man"/"Napoleon" jibes with regard to Mr Macron that you sometimes hear and read do start to sound slightly unhinged when you actually bother compare Mr Macron and Mr Johnson's heights..... there's not as much in it as many people would like some to think.

But ..Spain ..... I'm shocked.

I woner if this list is accurate. Fuck, the criticism should be going to Spain!

Do they have links with Russia?

Surely it is also fairly sensible that it is Macron speaking with Putin given that France currently holds the Presidency of the Council of the EU. It will be interesting to see what happens at the end of June, will the person speaking to Putin switch with the change in Presidency?

I know Macron's supposed comments about not humiliating Putin (I haven't read more than the headlines so don't know what he actually said) are unpopular but is that not based in the idea that the German perception of their humiliation in the Treaty of Versailles was a factor in the rise of Nazism. And possibly also the idea mentioned on these threads that if Russia had been treated differently after the collapse of the USSR then the rise of Putin and oligarchs etc might have panned out differently. I can see that it is a difficult balance in that you have people saying Russia has to be defeated to ensure the conflict isn't just kicked a few years down the line but equally there is historical precendent for humiliating defeat leading to conflict just being kicked a few years (well decades) down the line.

@BewareTheLibrarians · Today 22:58
From Business Ukraine magazine on Twitter:

“Russia has destroyed a major Ukrainian grain export terminal in Mykolaiv that plays a crucial role in international food security. This targeted attack is further evidence that Putin is weaponising global famine in a bid to blackmail the international community.”

[[https://mobile.twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1533382115336790016 mobile.twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1533382115336790016XV0=

How long since Putin said there was no obstacle to Ukraine shipping their grain via sea ports?

A day ago.

When he also said:

^"We are now seeing attempts to shift the
responsibility for what is happening on
the world food market, the emerging
problems in this market, onto Russia.
This is an attempt, as our people say, to
shift these problems from a sick head to
a healthy one”^

m.economictimes.com/news/international/world-news/vladimir-putin-hits-back-at-west-says-grains-from-ukraine-can-be-exported-via-ports-or-via-belarus/articleshow/92009871.cms

@Ijsbear 23:13
But ..Spain ..... I'm shocked.

I woner if this list is accurate. Fuck, the criticism should be going to Spain!

Do they have links with Russia?

I think Spain has given things. I don’t have time to look right now though.

Re it being the British media fanning the flames of hate against the French and the Germans.

I invite you to speak to a Ukrainian or a Pole or a Lithuanian or an Estonian.

I saw a telling comment today, that the idea of a European Union Army is dead and buried for good. The Eastern Europeans, Sweden and Finland have a trust issue now. They don't believe that France and Germany can be counted on when it matters. They realise the value of the British and the Americans in stepping up, militarily and verbally (the UK hasn't always sent as much as its said).
.
Having spoken to non-Brits I do think this is very real and not the British press talking. Its about trust.

The French and German thinking is interesting as they both draw the comparison with WWI and fear an Arch Duke moment and fear a Versailles problem. Whereas the Eastern European, US and UK draw closer parallels with WW2.

When you hear Russia talk, they are very deliberately framing things around this idea of WWI to isolate Western EU countries from Scandinavia and Eastern Europe. Its very consider. Watch out for it. It is to work on this fracture and doubt within the western EU countries. Its playing on national identity issues.

Both France and Germany have a psychological background of thinking which is fundamentally different to those in the east who were occupied by both the nazis and soviets or had to fight for the independence. France and Germany fear repeating mistakes of the past. East Europe just wishes to protect itself and have its own agency. France and Germany have had national humiliations...

Yes the British press are milking the opportunity for all its worth, but they can only capitalise on the underlying issues - they aren't just making up shit (for once).

It says there "Unspecified shipment of arms and ammunition" so looks like Spain might be doing the same as Finland and sending things but keeping quiet about what and when so Russia gets less intel.

Dmitry Medvedev: "If these weapons are used against Russian territory then our armed forces will have no other choice but to strike decision-making centres. It needs to be understood that the decision-making centres in this case are not located on the territory of Kyiv.“

Well, this is surely a threat to strike outside of Ukraine. They're waving the 'you'll force us to expand the war' rattle. Difficult to know how far to dismiss these threats (a reaction to sending heavy weapons) and how far to worry what the response would be if Russia struck eg Poland

This is definitely an escalation. The Russian position has always been that Russia is fighting NATO, and this will entrench them further.

They will retaliate, most likely in Kiev and Odessa.

I worry that the nuclear rhetoric is hotting up again.

Yes it's horrible feeling like we're constantly waiting for something even worse to happen and dreading it

mobile.twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1533619320093388800 Zelensky went to Severdonetsk

Oliver Carroll AT olliecarroll
To be clear, he was not in Severodonetsk itself but in positions nearby in Lysychansk. I guess it solves the question of whether Ukraine is in control of supply road.

Its the other side of the river, and even that will have been hairy. Its still a very forward position and not without risk. Ask a Russian General.

Our council (South East) has been very prompt, I've had a part payment for April, to cover from their arrival date on the 9th, and full payment for May. Which is good as we've had to get an old car back on the road to allow our Ukrainian guests some independence and means I'm not a taxi driver and so far the government funding has gone towards that.

No confidence vote against the PM today at 18:00 - could have big implications.

Looking at that Wiki list, Austria isn't exactly covering itself with glory either.

That needs to be considered in the context of their long standing neutrality.

I don't think we can expect everybody to automatically and very quickly set aside long standing national policies and sometimes deeply held beliefs....but yes it would be nice if everybody contributed more to the Ukrainian cause.

It is the Emirate states that I find nauseating. Only because they know that if Russia recovers unchanged there is now just one remaining destination for oligarchs funds and that is Dubai.