Ukraine Invasion: Part 27

[MagicFox]

27th thread, thanks for the continued company and analysis all

@RedToothBrush just responding to your post yesterday (I didn't want to quote whole thing)

I was talking with someone who hosting and they said that although the first language of their guest is technically Russian and they had to subsequently learn Ukrainian as a child, they no longer wished to speak Russian. They frequently travelled to Russian speaking areas of Ukraine before February and would happily speak Russian (including to family members), but they now disliked using it. They also were saying that they thought that people should speak Ukrainian in Ukraine because it was the national language ... it was about being part of society and refusing to learn was almost opting out of being part of society and the country they lived in...I find it hard to disagree with because I don't think we think differently within the UK really. Indeed those immigrants who don't learn English are at risk

I think that there is more than one issue here, and some are explained better by the media where I live (EU, western side). As I understand it it is not an immigration situation in Ukraine, at the time Ukraine became independent a sizeable chunk of Ukrainian land – 40 percent? - was Russian, with Russian communities and the Russian language spoken – there was no immigration - this is why I have likened it to Wales. To draw parallels with Wales, Wales sits with the UK and within the England and Wales jurisdiction, is about 8.5 percent of UK in terms of land, official language is both Welsh and English in Wales, you mentioned schools and both languages are taught in schools up to age 16 in Wales, there is also some autonomy in relation to some legislation.

The other issue is language spoken, and you have given an example of a refugee near you. Many of the refugees who are near me speak Russian as the first language but have close relatives who are Ukrainian eg one parent Russian, one parent Ukrainian. So many people do speak both languages, in the same way as you say Zelensky does but use one or other as the day to day language - a fair percentage use Russian as the day to day language for reasons above. The tensions I mentioned are not just to do with language though.

Just as a general point about language and immigration/refugees separate to the above, as a third issue, I am an expat and not all expats where i am have been able to learn the local language. Level of education is relevant, age is relevant, confidence is relevant, as well as the intention to learn.

When I went to the Ukrainian centre in Manchester, the guy there made a point that they did not allow Russian on any of their forums etc
This isn't happening where we are, to be honest. But again, whether refugees or people in Ukraine are going to be making pro Russian or pro Ukraine comments is a slightly different point, I think, as for a number of weeks (since end March?) it has been against Ukrainian law to say anything against Ukraine or the Ukraine army on social media or anyone else, and this applies in a practical sense to those abroad. Associated Press did a report called "Ukraine hunts down "traitors" helping Russia” which is on youtube.

The above is the best of my knowledge, I hope it is helpful, if anyone thinks any facts are wrong please do say.

ISW Key Takeaways

Ukrainian counterattacks in Severodonetsk recaptured large parts of the city and forced Russian troops out of the southern suburbs of the city.

Russian forces continued efforts to converge on Slovyansk from the southeast of Izyum and west of Lyman but remain unlikely to make notable advances around Slovyansk due to their continued prioritization of Severodonetsk.

Ukrainian troops reportedly conducted limited and localized counterattacks north of Kharkiv City.

Russian forces continued to hold their defensive lines and fire at Ukrainian positions along the Southern Axis.

In the expanded stuff, this seems relevant and significant. Bolding is mine.

Russian military bloggers continued to reckon with overarching struggles in Russian force generation on June 5. Russian milblogger Alexander Khodakovsky accused “screamers in the guise of patriots” of hypocritically calling for general mobilization while at the same time discrediting the Russian military leadership and driving away those who would voluntarily take up arms for Russia.[9] Khodakovsky blamed the pervasive public discourse on general mobilization for making people overthink and subsequently become less willing to enter military service, thereby forcing Russian military command closer to actually needing to announce general mobilization. Khodakovsky suggested that this discourse is setting Russia up for a long war in Ukraine and that Russian authorities have been positioned to take the blame for losses. Russian war journalist Alexander Sladkov claimed that the Russian grouping in Ukraine is an ”exclusively professional army” not staffed by conscripts, while simultaneously calling for the removal of health requirements for rear and combat specialties in order to mobilize those who should be medically disqualified.[10] These and other comments by Russian military specialists indicate the Russian military community is increasingly aware of issues in sustaining mobilization efforts and different actors are seeking to apportion blame as Russian operations continue to stall.

So apparently within Russia there really is a lot of public talk of general mobilization.

+++

The Kyiv Independent, [06/06/2022 10:07]
⚡️General Staff: Russian troops with Iskander-M systems positioned in Belarus along Ukrainian border. According to the Ukrainian military, Russia has also deployed medium-range surface-to-air missile and anti-aircraft artillery systems Pantsir, S-400 missile systems, and operational and tactical aircraft along the border.

⚡️ Luhansk Oblast Governor: Ukrainian position in Sievierodonetsk worsens amid heavy fighting. According to Serhiy Haidai, after recapturing half of the city during a recent counteroffensive, the Ukrainian military in Sievierodonetsk is under renewed attack, holding positions in the industrial part of the city.
The Russian tactic “is to wipe everything off the face of the earth, so there would be nothing to defend,” he said, adding that the level of damage in several settlements in the oblast could be compared to Mariupol.

+++

As RedToothBrush noted, Zelensky went very close to the front lines and certainly into the General Kill Zone.

❕Russian private military company The Wagner Group, led by oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, is mining gold in mines in Sudan to illegally replenish Russian foreign exchange reserves and mitigate the effect of economic sanctions – New York Times.

🇸🇪🇺🇦 The Swedish government decided to provide Ukraine with [yet more] financial support and weapons to defend against Russia — Army Recognition

❌ Two people were killed in a mine explosion on a beach in Mariupol. One of them was eight years old

📅 Today the UN Security Council will meet for a meeting on the situation in Ukraine
The main topics for discussion will be conflict-related sexual violence and human trafficking in the context of the war in Ukraine.

And one last one that I found rather touching.

I am an expat and not all expats where i am have been able to learn the local language. Level of education is relevant, age is relevant, confidence is relevant,

Oh so true groans And talent. If you lack the language-bump, you're buggered.

Re:Spain
Spain has shipped 200 tonnes of military equipment, including heavy transport vehicles and ammunition, to Ukraine, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said Thursday during a visit to Kyiv.
21 Apr 2022
www.thedefensepost.com › s...
Spain Sends 200 Tonnes of Military Material to Ukraine: PM^

^Spain to deliver anti-aircraft missiles and tanks to Ukraine
Reuters | Updated: Jun 5, 2022, 14:08 IST^

^MADRID : Spain is to supply Ukraine with anti-aircraft missiles and Leopard battle tanks in a step up of its military support to the country, according to government sources cited by newspaper El Pais on Sunday.

Spain will also provide essential training to the Ukrainian military in how to use the tanks. It would take place in Latvia, where the Spanish Army has deployed 500 soldiers within the framework of NATO's Enhanced Advanced Presence operation.

A second phase of training could take place in Spain, according to the sources cited by El Pais.

Russian troops with Iskander-M systems positioned in Belarus along Ukrainian border.

So it's ok for Russia to use its ally it would claim it's a sovereign state and not a vassal state but Ukraine is not allowed to use its allies

Spain and Ukrainian refugees

Spain has reported that more than 41,000 displaced people from Ukraine have already been assisted in its territory, an increase of 20,462 people compared to March 24.7 Apr 2022
www.schengenvisainfo.com › ...
Spain Has Helped More Than 20,000 Ukrainian Refugees in the

Wow, amazing listening to this Italian journalist calling out his colleagues for Kremlin fluffing in front of Solovyov! twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1533754156196016128?s=21&t=BolbQfCOzWXIDaF93ryqMw

More on Spain
The Diplomat
thediplomatinspain.com/en/2022/06/ukraine-estimates-that-the-arms-delivered-by-spain-are-enough-for-two-hours-of-fighting/

*The Ukrainian ambassador to Spain, Serhii Pohoreltsev, yesterday thanked the Spanish government for the more than 200 tonnes of military aid provided so far to repel the Russian invasion, but estimates that the weapons delivered so far “are enough for two hours of fighting”.^

Speaking to journalists on the 100th day anniversary of the start of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, Serhii Pohoreltsev said of the aid provided by Spain. “We are grateful but we cannot say that we are satisfied”. The ambassador requested the delivery by Spain of Leopard tanks and 155 mm howitzers and 120 mm mortars.

Pohoreltsev considered the delivery of the Leopards a priority over discussions to receive Spanish instructors to teach the Ukrainian forces how to operate them.

“The issue is on the table and there is good will on the part of the Spanish government and the Ministry of Defence to send instructors to teach the operation of these tanks. There is willingness, there is a possibility, but the important thing is the tanks”, he insisted.

^“We are not asking for anything that Spain cannot provide”, added the Ukrainian ambassador, before lamenting, according to studies by the diplomatic mission, that Spain registers “one of the lowest rates of aid to Ukraine in relation to its military budget”.*

The diplomat reiterated that Ukraine needs “more financial aid and more weapons” to fight an enemy whose arsenal outnumbers the Ukrainian forces “20 to 1”, which has brought the situation to a critical moment but which could be reversed, however, if Ukraine receives the supplies it is requesting. “We could drive Russia out in a matter of weeks,” Pohoreltsev said.

In any case, the ambassador applauded the “unquestionable support” shown towards Ukraine by the Spanish government, in which he does not perceive “pro-Russian sympathies”, but rather a support “that has been seen in all the decisions adopted by the government”, such as the delivery at the end of April of the 200 tonnes of arms and ammunition, the 30 large trucks and the 10 light trucks that the Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, promised during his meeting in Kiev with his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodimir Zelenski.

Finally, Serhii Pohoreltsev also expressed his satisfaction with the process carried out by the Spanish authorities to grant temporary protection status to 116,000 of the 140,000 Ukrainian refugees who have arrived in Spain since the beginning of the war, in addition to the 120,000 already residing in the country until the outbreak of the conflict.

Well of course, it stands to reason that Russia can do what it wants but Ukraine cannot possibly ever dare to do anything remotely similar.

I was in town today, first time I've been in town on a midday on the 1st Monday of the month in years, so very unused to the sound of the emergency siren test. It went off and for a moment my heart was in my throat before I remembered about the testing.

ljsbear, thanks for the takeaways.

So apparently within Russia there really is a lot of public talk of general mobilization.

I really hope Putin does not do a general mobilization. It will just prolong the war and mean more lives (Russian and Ukrainian) wasted for a lost Russian cause. It might mean the eventual end of Putin but at this point, I don't think it will make a difference if Putin loses his power because the hawks in the wings that will most likely take over will make the situation even more deadly and unpredictable for Ukraine.

+++
The Kyiv Independent, [06/06/2022 10:07]
⚡️General Staff: Russian troops with Iskander-M systems positioned in Belarus along Ukrainian border. According to the Ukrainian military, Russia has also deployed medium-range surface-to-air missile and anti-aircraft artillery systems Pantsir, S-400 missile systems, and operational and tactical aircraft along the border.

Argh, hope this does not mean Russia is aiming to hit Kyiv intensively again.

Two people were killed in a mine explosion on a beach in Mariupol. One of them was eight years old

So sad. Who could be living in Mariupol at this stage. Russian settlors?

Today the UN Security Council will meet for a meeting on the situation in Ukraine
The main topics for discussion will be conflict-related sexual violence and human trafficking in the context of the war in Ukraine.

Yes, yes. What about linking it to genocide.

Russian Officers killed in Ukraine 🇨🇿🇺🇦
@KilledInUkraine
·
5h
In the last couple of days, it's interesting that the cases of officers confirmed KIA have dropped, while the cases of Sergeants in particular have increased.

Possibly they are running out of officers, or sending them to the back now.

I do wonder what will happen if / when the Russian attrition goes too far. Will the general mobilization happen?

@whenwillwegetthereholly 10:10

Thank you for your information about what you have understood from media explanations in the western side of the EU.

As I understand it it is not an immigration situation in Ukraine, at the time Ukraine became independent a sizeable chunk of Ukrainian land – 40 percent? - was Russian, with Russian communities and the Russian language spoken – there was no immigration - this is why I have likened it to Wales.

I may be wrong, but I thought I had picked up from some posters on here with local knowledge of east Ukraine that

a. while it might have been equivalent of Wales (Russian speaking) that did not necessarily mean occupants wanted to be under Russian control, though some older or poorer residents did look back to the Soviet era as a time of security and would like it back.

b. This is where I am very unclear, but I had the impression that in some ways Russia had been moving Russian Russians into the region.

c. Since the war with the east against Ukraine, war gangsters like Motorola moved in from Russia to fight Ukraine and also also subsequently controlled infrastructure there.

So I think it may be more complicated than Wales. I realise you were talking about language When and now I am bringing in a separate subject. But I’d love any of those posters who understand the position to come back to explain again. One is MMBaranova I think, who is away. RTB may know though and there are some others.

@Ijsbear · Today 10:50
ISW Key Takeaways

Thank for these takeaways. Thanks too for the kitten photograph. Here is cat image for you.

@terrywynne · Yesterday 23:20
Re what you were saying begininning “Surely it is also fairly sensible that it is Macron speaking with Putin given that France currently holds the Presidency of the Council of the EU……..”

Thank you for you considered post.

@ScrollingLeaves

Thanks for the info on Spain! I missed it, must not have refreshed at the right time. It's good to hear they have given a lot, though I still think others have much outranked them.

Thanks for the cat foto too, that's a loving couple of beings isn't it

So sad. Who could be living in Mariupol at this stage. Russian settlors?

I think there was still a lot of people who never left Mariupol

mobile.twitter.com/WeLoveNATO/status/1533588695676514304 report of 3rd Russian General killed yesterday

Thanks for the info on Spain! I missed it, must not have refreshed at the right time. It's good to hear they have given a lot, though I still think others have much outranked them.

Just a general peeve of mine but I'm really not sure having a ranking table or some sort of generosity league is useful....

Some countries have run their military down to the point that they really have stuff all useful ordnance to give in the first place, some countries re reasonable equipped don't have the economic clout to replace anything they do give, some countries are not revealing in full what they are/have supplied, some countries we know have been supplying assistance which you cannot put monetary value on, such as imagery and other items of intelligence, some have been supplying , or promised to supply lots of "kit" of questionable value.......etc etc etc...

Just be grateful the US has a lot in stock, both to supply directly to Ukraine but also to backfill war stocks in the other countries that are are donating....

I take the point, notimagain.

It's also possible that the table didn't take everything into account or recent stuff.

Still, countries that have little military could give humanitarian aid, like Japan who's really been surprising.

ScrollingLeaves · Today 12:58

replying to:
@terrywynne · Yesterday 23:20

“Re what you were saying beginning

“Surely it is also fairly sensible that it is Macron speaking with Putin given that France currently holds the Presidency of the Council of the EU……..”

Thank you for you considered post.”

………………………………………………………………….

Unfortunately, as we can see from this video of Russian State TV, all that President Macron is getting from his efforts to speak to Putin - and treat him with respect - is mockery from Russia.

htatps://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1533644767808086018?s=20&t=TPKkJUhyz6CWmfmyTn7yyQ

@ScrollingLeaves

Unfortunately, as we can see from this video of Russian State TV, all that President Macron is getting from his efforts to speak to Putin - and treat him with respect - is mockery from Russia.

I'd expect Russian State TV to spin it that way, the real worry is those in the west who will take that footage and use it to justify their "Ah but Macron" agenda

Personally, I take some reassurance from the fact that lines of communication are open even though it does then have knock on consequences in terms of how that fact can be spun in different countries.

It is incredibly difficult to know what is the best line of action to take when you are in the moment. We can certainly take lessons from the past ie: the treatment of Germany in 1918 v in 1945 (random trivia: history was a relatively late - 19th century I think - addition to the subjects taught at Oxford University, and it was intended as a vocational course for politicians and diplomats not a traditional academic course a la maths, classics etc) but utimately we never exactly replicate a past moment of time. For all the comparisons, Putin is not Hitler, Russia is not Germany in either the 1910s or 1930s/40s (culture, economics, society), Russia's historic relationship with Ukraine is not exactly the same as Germany with the Sudentenland etc.

Ultimately, politicians/diplomats/military leaders have to have the confidence to make the decisions that they think is best based on what they know in this moment (which could have changed by tomorrow morning!). And do so knowing that they will be judged now by people who would take a different decision. And they will be judged in years to come with the benefit of hindsight! It is certainly not a job I could do....

Thanks @ScrollingLeaves for the timescale of the grain terminal explosion after putin’s “ports are safe!” comment. 24 hours is ridiculous isn’t it!

Just came across this incredibly sad news on Twitter about Mariupol.

“Russia is preparing for a possible outbreak of cholera in occupied Mariupol, said the mayor's adviser on a national telethon. He confirmed that the invaders were blocking the exit from the city.
We have received information that the Russian side in Rostov-on-Don has already prepared separate infectious disease units, where they are preparing to receive their own troops, which may be affected by this epidemic.”

Source is in the link. Hopefully reputable, but apologies if not. “Possible outbreak” gives me hope it’s not there yet, but I also can’t believe Russia would set up infectious disease units unless they absolutely had to.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Now_in_Ukraine/status/1533778649576624128

From reading that, it seems that Russia is not content with just destroying the industry and infrastructure of the territory they’re attempting to take, they now seem to be intent on destroying any last tiny shred of goodwill of civilians remaining in Mariupol. Blocking civilians from exiting a city in a cholera outbreak is another low/absolutely expected from Russia.

@notimagain gain · Today 14:1

@ScrollingLeaves
Unfortunately, as we can see from this video of Russian State TV, all that President Macron is getting from his efforts to speak to Putin - and treat him with respect - is mockery from Russia.

I'd expect Russian State TV to spin it that way, the real worry is those in the west who will take that footage and use it to justify their "Ah but Macron" agenda

Let us hope more people see it as evidence of Macron, as a civilised person elected by a free country, behaving in a way that the dictator he is trying to negotiate with is incapable of.