Ukraine Invasion: Part 27

[MagicFox]

27th thread, thanks for the continued company and analysis all

Lithuania is prepared for that though, although power might be a bit unstable, as it hasn't gone through all of the tests, but it's not the end of the world.

Agreed, to a large extent it’s probably the best Worst outcome.

Is Rostov in Russian territory?

Yes

We accepted a million British personnel dead in the first world war - but you could argue it was an existential threat. Does Putin have the balls to send an entire generation of men to their death in the face of a dropping birth rate that (he says) is a public priority? More to the point, without issuing a general draft, can he?

I don't know the answers. I just know there is a breaking point in every society and we won't necessarily know until after the fact what Russia's will be.

This one's ...... REALLY surprising news

Fuat
@lilygrutcher
·
2h
Colonel Vadim Zimin, who carried Putin's nuclear codes, found seriously wounded at his home, about 4 hrs ago.

small report I found said he'd been found in the kitchen by his brother who'd gone to the loo. They'd been drinking, he was on house arrest for corruption charges? Implication was that he'd shot himself.

Ye gods, the man with the nuclear codes on corruption charges?

though perhaps if he was under house arrest his permissions had been removed. One seriously hopes.

He carries(d) them around, he didn’t as far as I’m aware have actual access to actually launch the arsenal.

ok seems he had retired from that particulr job. Phew.

🖇 Germany, together with the Netherlands, delivered 12 Panzerhaubitzen 2000 artillery mounts to Ukraine, German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht said

Gnite, all

Good night Ijsbear. Thanks for the updates and takeaways.

Thanks, Igotjelly

Dramatic video in Daily Mail of one of the drones doing a suicide attack on the oil refinery.

"Russian air defences failed to pick up the incoming drone, initially reported to be Turkish-made Bayraktar, but later said to be a Ukrainian UAV PD-1 or PD-2."

Apparently the drone flew from the Ukraine side. I assume this is not a false flag attack. Will be pretty stupid for Russia to destroy an oil refinery as opposed to targeting (dispensable) civilians like they happily do without compunction.

Zelensky promised the US that he would not strike inside Russian territory. Is that is only in relation to using US weapons. Ukraine is presumably free to use their own military stock to destroy Russian military targets in Russian territory.

If I were Ukraine, I'd be using Western equipment within Ukraine and saving up my Ukrainian weapons for Russia.

Yes my understanding is that the agreement was as a condition of being given US weaponry.

Not to forget that a drone isn’t necessarily being piloted by the official UA military so any action taken may not be known about/sanctioned by the UA Govt.

In today's Ukraine: The Latest podcast the military correspondent said that there was some indication that it was a captured Russian surveillance drone fitted with a warhead. If true, Ukraine would have simply been returning it to the Russians. 🙂

Seems fair enough. I expect they put a ribbon on it too.

Russia claiming that the oil refinery was filmed/photoed by US satellite 3 days before the attack. Because to admit that some snotty Ukraine managed to do it without anti aircraft detection systems detecting it (how sensitive are these things?) is just too painful to admit.

MissConductUS: In today's Ukraine: The Latest podcast the military correspondent said that there was some indication that it was a captured Russian surveillance drone fitted with a warhead. If true, Ukraine would have simply been returning it to the Russians. 🙂

Brilliant, from Ukraine with love.

ISW Key Takeaways

Russian forces continued to make gains to the south of Lysychansk and will likely reach the city in the coming days, although they are unlikely to quickly capture the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area.

Russian forces continued offensive operations towards Slovyansk and made minor advances.

Russian forces intensified efforts to interdict Ukrainian lines of communication along the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway in order to support Russian operations towards Lysychansk.

Russian forces focused on defensive operations along the Southern Axis and may have made marginal gains within Mykolaiv Oblast.

Russian authorities are continuing measures to facilitate the economic integration of occupied areas.

+++

Re: EU candidate status

Zelenskiy Official telegram channel

From the very morning I continued the telephone marathon for a positive decision on the candidacy for Ukraine. Today I talked to the leaders of 11 countries: Bulgaria, Latvia, Greece, Sweden, Estonia, the Czech Republic, Belgium, Austria, Slovenia, Moldova, and spoke again with President of Lithuania Nausėda. I expressed full support to him over the situation around the Kaliningrad region of Russia.

I will continue this marathon – we must provide maximum support to our state. We expect a key European decision in the evening.

The Kyiv Independent, [22/06/2022 23:54]
⚡️European Commission chief urges EU leaders to give Ukraine candidate status.
Ursula von der Leyen called on the bloc's leaders on June 22 to "make the right choice" amid Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's aggressive war and "the wind of change" that is blowing over Europe again. The European Commission recommended giving candidate status to Ukraine on June 17, and the European Council is set to decide on Ukraine’s application on June 23.

+++

The Kyiv Independent, [22/06/2022 23:53]
⚡️German chancellor opposes "dictated peace" for Ukraine.

"Ukraine - and only Ukraine - decides what is right for them," German Chancellor Olaf Scholz wrote on Twitter on June 22. "Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine! We are a long way from negotiations because Putin believes in a dictated peace... The EU, NATO and G7 must send the message that the world's democracies stand together in the fight against Putin's imperialism."

⚡️Ukraine's military destroys Russian equipment, field ammunition depots.

Ukraine’s Operational Command “South” reported that they killed 20 Russian troops on June 22 and destroyed two ammunition depots, as well as some Russian equipment, including a self-propelled howitzer, and four military vehicles.

The Kyiv Independent, [23/06/2022 07:29]
⚡️Study: Russia employs large scale cyber attack efforts to bolster invasion, many failed. A new study published by Microsoft on June 22 suggested that while much of Russia’s recent cyberactivity has focused on Ukraine, at least
128 network intrusions have been detected in 42 countries.
Only 37 of those (29%) managed to successfully penetrate a network, Microsoft said. They added that among the successful penetrations, only a quarter (nine out of the 128 attempted attacks) resulted in data being stolen.

(I think the cyber aspect is going to be an interesting one, when it's finally analyzed in the future)

+++

UkraineNOW

⚡️Governor: Ukraine controls nearly 45% of Donetsk Oblast. Donetsk Oblast Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko said in a comment to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty on June 22 that Ukraine remains in control of nearly half of the heavily damaged Donetsk region. Russia and its proxies currently hold the remaining 55%, including destroyed cities of Mariupol and Volnovakha. [Just consider how long this war has been going on and the really considerable numerical and military superiority of the Russians. And they still control only 45%]

💥 Ukrainian partisans are effectively working in the temporarily occupied territories.

📣 Russia may resort to provocations due to the restriction of the transit of Kaliningrad, but Lithuania and NATO allies are monitoring the situation in the region and are ready to respond, – Lithuanian Defense Minister Arvydas Anušauskas

[Note, NATO allies are ready to respond. There was a grim little piece last night that Latvia expects to be overrun very fast indeed if Russia invades, despite NATO. This is one hell of a test for NATO and I hope it pulls through]

from, actually, UkraineNOW:
📡 NASA will gradually begin to shut down the Voyagers
By reducing energy consumption, scientists hope to slightly extend the service life – until 2030.
Voyagers were launched into space more than 40 years ago and are now the first man-made vehicles to go beyond the solar system.
We are watching the era passing.

❌ Russians arrange gas leaks in Luhansk apartment buildings to lure out men hiding from mobilization outside

🛢 Tankers carrying Russian oil are increasingly shutting down their radars in the Atlantic Ocean, a tactic often used while buying sanctioned oil from Iran and Venezuela.

Snake Island:
The head of intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, said that the invaders were transferring to Zmiinyi Island a group consisting of air defense units, as well as units armed with rocket artillery installations.
“Namely, there are three of them. In addition, there are a boat group and special forces units of the Russian Federation,” he added.

🔺 Invaders force Ukrainian doctors to issue fictitious certificates so as not to fight further
This was reported by the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.
According to them, the Russian military is forcing doctors in the Zaporizhzhia region to issue fictitious certificates about the impossibility to continue military service for health reasons.
At the same time, a double threat arises for doctors: in case of refusal to provide a certificate, the occupiers threaten with reprisals. If a fictitious document is issued, the occupying commandant's office promises trouble.

Foreign Policy: US Army to provide Ukraine with Boston Dynamics Spot to clear mines around Kyiv

G7 and NATO will increase pressure on Russia — Reuters
(www.reuters.com/world/europe/g7-nato-leaders-ratchet-up-pressure-russia-keeping-eye-china-us-officials-2022-06-22/)Leaders of the G7 and NATO will meet next week to develop new ways to increase pressure on Russia over the war in Ukraine, while stressing their concerns over China's position.
The President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky will address the meetings in an online format.

(reliability of pic not wholly known)

@TheABC

We accepted a million British personnel dead in the first world war

Good point...and if I remember correctly well over 50,000 casualties on the first day of the Battle of the Somme?

The past is another country, and so is Russia.

I don't know the answers. I just know there is a breaking point in every society and we won't necessarily know until after the fact what Russia's will be.

Very much agree.

Re Zimin.

He carries(d) them around, he didn’t as far as I’m aware have actual access to actually launch the arsenal.

Without looking hm up in detail from what is being described it sounds like he would have been one of perhaps several officers who would have been assigned to literally carry that bag and make sure he was never far from Putin when Putin was on his travels.

It would be a junior'ish senior officer job, bit like being a PA, so highly highly unlikely he would have had any access to even partial launch authority himself (and hopefully he didn't take the thing home in an evening..).

todays update and losses

❌ Russians arrange gas leaks in Luhansk apartment buildings to lure out men hiding from mobilization outside

🔺 Invaders force Ukrainian doctors to issue fictitious certificates so as not to fight further
This was reported by the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.
According to them, the Russian military is forcing doctors in the Zaporizhzhia region to issue fictitious certificates about the impossibility to continue military service for health reasons.
At the same time, a double threat arises for doctors: in case of refusal to provide a certificate, the occupiers threaten with reprisals. If a fictitious document is issued, the occupying commandant's office promises trouble.

Will the horrors for those in Russian occupied territories never cease. They are forced to make impossible choices and either whatever decision they make, they and their families will be penalised for it, including death and permanent injury.

Ijsbear, appreciate the takeaways.

Russia still has so much artillery and ships and boats left