Ukraine Invasion: Part 27

[MagicFox]

27th thread, thanks for the continued company and analysis all

Been away from this thread for a while, is there any more info on Belarus joining in, think there was something several days ago

Ijsbear, thanks for the takeaways and this link. Seems to be a fair assessment, even if he is FSB.

Good point.

Russia will not only be isolated from the West but Russians within Russia itself will be isolated from each other, without decent air and rail links. How would they get stuff around the country without rail? I suppose trucks. I wonder how good the road links are.

@blueshoes.

Hopefully someone who has visited Russia can confirm about the roads. The World Economic forum ranked them at 114th, with infrastructure at 2.9 (1 = abysmal and 7=excellent).

However...that brings us back to the need for working trucks and cars. Getting replacements parts is becoming harder by the week and most foreign carmakers have pulled out or paused operations.

@Ijsbear whom are you referring to? The blogger? He's just summarising what Arestovych said, it's not his own analysis.

How would they get stuff around the country without rail? I suppose trucks. I wonder how good the road links are.

What follows is unscientific but judging by what you can see from the air when flying over the country there's not much tarmac, certainly away from the major urban areas once you get East of Moscow and most especially beyond the Urals....

There's the odd basic looking road, the odd railway line, most big settlements have an airstrip that can be served by rough field short haul types that Aeroflot specialise in operating.

There are threatening noises but no action. Lukashenko seems to be doing the best he can to avoid actual military action. However Putin is visiting in a few days' time and he will presumably be putting a lot of pressure on.

@OwlsDance Ack, I think I got Gerkin and Arestovyich mixed up - reading too fast and misattributing the post to Gerkin! Oops!

@Ijsbear ear · Today 11:04
very well worth reading. He's Russian FSB through and through but gives much more accurate pictures than most and intelligent assessments.
wartranslated.com/day-117-june-20-summary-of-arestovych-and-feygin-daily-broadcast/

Do you not think it was a little optimistic? Ukraine is losing huge numbers and has a tenth of the amunition/equipment. I liked reading the optimism though, as well as the summary of events. Thank you.

The Kyiv Independent, [21/06/2022 16:27]
⚡️Ukraine’s military: Russian forces suffer “significant losses” after Ukrainian strike on Snake Island.

According to Ukraine’s Operational Command South, the Ukrainian military operation on the island continues, and the details cannot be disclosed until its completion. Russia occupied Snake island in the Black Sea at the very beginning of the full-scale invasion in February.

+++

The Kyiv Independent, [21/06/2022 16:27]
⚡️Zelensky invites Hungarian PM to visit Ukraine.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said that he has had a “fruitful” conversation with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and invited him to visit Ukraine. Zelensky thanked Orban for supporting EU candidate status for Ukraine. Hungary’s pro-Kremlin authorities had previously attempted to block an EU sanctions package against Russia. Hungary has also refused to allow weapons to be delivered through its territory to Ukraine.

{ change of tone from Orban here}

The Kyiv Independent, [21/06/2022 16:36]
⚡️US attorney general makes surprise visit to Ukraine, expresses “unwavering support”.

U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland met Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova in Ukraine on June 21. They will discuss efforts by the U.S. and allies to help Ukraine “identify, apprehend, and prosecute those individuals involved in war crimes” in Ukraine, CNN reported, citing a statement by a U.S. Justice Department official. “The United States is sending an unmistakable message – there is no place to hide. Our partners and we will pursue every avenue available to make sure that those responsible for these atrocities are held accountable,” Garland said.

❗️ Kremlin approves execution of Americans detained in Ukraine

🇫🇮 Finland's accession to NATO is delayed
Finland failed to reach an agreement with Türkiye, said President Sauli Niinistö.
He noted that Helsinki, most likely, will not be able to join NATO before September.

( :( )

Yeah, here is the ref to Putin visiting Belorus
📌 Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit self-proclaimed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko at the Forum of the Regions of the Union State, which will be held next week in Grodno, Belarus

Oleksii Reznikov
@oleksiireznikov
Ukraine government official

· 2h
Panzerhaubitze 2000 are finally part of 155 mm howitzer arsenal of the Ukrainian artillery.
I appreciate all efforts of my colleague 🇩🇪 #DefMin Christine Lambrecht in support of 🇺🇦.
Our artillerymen will bring the heat to the battlefield 🔥🔥🔥!
Photo by BMVg_Bundeswehr

(number is not stated)

@Ijsbear · Today 16:01
@thereisonlyoneofme

Been away from this thread for a while, is there any more info on Belarus joining in, think there was something several days ago

There are threatening noises but no action. Lukashenko seems to be doing the best he can to avoid actual military action. However Putin is visiting in a few days' time and he will presumably be putting a lot of pressure on.

I think earlier in this thread there was information about how Lukashenko had an ability to of seeming to go along with Putin but at the same time not do it. I think I recall some sort of leaverage he has.

This is not what you were discussing but I thought you might be interested in this article I just found which is by a Belarusian. It sounds as though there is an underground stream of opposition to Russia symbolised through language issues.

Lukashenko must really be worried about what could happen in Belarus too. Thank

The Belarusian language is under attack | Opinions | Al Jazeera

www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/6/12/belarusian-language-is-under-attack

Russia has already begun military exercises in the Kaliningrad region. What does this mean, and will the Russian Federation be able to provoke with a NATO member country?

(UkraineNOW)

Thats an interesting article scrolling and it's also interesting that Al Jazeera is publishing it. They wouldn't do that if it was a tiny phenomenon. It does seem to indicated that Lukashenko has a lot of home problems, which is confirmed by the increasing repression, book bannings and death penalties. Happy countries don't need those things.

Arestovych said a while ago, that by the time they confirm that weapons have been delivered, in reality they've already been in full action on the front for a week or two. Ukraine has had very good success lately in hitting important military targets, and Arestovych was saying something must have changed recently for them to achieve that. I wonder if he was hinting at German howitzers. Hopefully he'll say more tonight.

He did mention snake Island last night, and he said there was so much smoke it would take them a couple days to count up what's been hit. I don't envy Russians that are there, they're like sitting ducks over there.

I think they do them there all the time.

There was a lot of frothing in Russian state news about Kaliningrad transit ban, I think it really hit the nerve. They were saying that "Lithuania should just take one look at Ukraine to see what happens when you anger Russia", and then in the next sentence they say that they can't do anything militarily because it will be direct confrontation with NATO. Typical Kremlin waffle.

mobile.twitter.com/lilygrutcher/status/1539190972600442880 unconfirmed reports another war ship sunk in the Black sea

I think the hype around what Tokayev said is a bit surprising to be honest, or maybe to distract people from other things which were said by both speakers. Tokayev has said the same thing since Feb, it is not a secret, it has been the subject of many discussions I would imagine. I read an article in April which talked about it

I was a bit surprised that Tokayev only spoke about the legal position and the problem with many small nations, and not what solutions might be available for the longstanding serious problems in the area if LDPR are not recognised.

The moderator is a leading Russian journalist, in her own right, btw.

@prettybird I am sorry it has taken me so long to reply, your link didn't work but the quote was just the first thing I found, it was late, it was a UNHCPAX doc from awhile back and there were, as you say, harrowing photographs of Donetsk. There are many sources, though there is also of course as ever dispute about where shelling comes from, though having said that I read a report by an ex NATO person who said that the OSCE reports clarify from which "side" "breaches of Minsk agreements" came from in the years and months leading up to Feb 22. I haven't looked at the reports myself.

@OwlsDance just going back to what you were saying about sitting through speeches, I tend to read the English transcripts which can be found online for many speeches, for Russian and US and other speeches. Might be easier?! The youtube translater option is really amazing as a function, allowing us insights into how things are reported in other places, but it is sometimes hard to follow for long things. Even for English things I prefer the transcript to be honest.

@OwlsDance · Today 17:13
Ijsbear
Russia has already begun military exercises in the Kaliningrad region. What does this mean, and will the Russian Federation be able to provoke with a NATO member country?
(UkraineNOW)

I think they do them there all the time.

There was a lot of frothing in Russian state news about Kaliningrad transit ban, I think it really hit the nerve. They were saying that "Lithuania should just take one look at Ukraine to see what happens when you anger Russia", and then in the next sentence they say that they can't do anything militarily because it will be direct confrontation with NATO. Typical Kremlin waffle.

There was a discussion about this just now on Radio 4 PM today 9:45 mins in I think. Arcady Ostrovsky the Russia and Eastern Europe correspondent for the Economist was talking.

It is definitely worth listening to if you can get iPlayer. Apparently, re the EU sanctions against Russia being implemented by Kalingrad, there could be distinction drawn between the sanction against Russian goods being exported to Europe through Kalingrad, and those simply being sent to Kalingrad. But he did not just talk about the sanctions.

Russia making lots of aggressive noises towards the Baltics. Estonia now claiming that a Russian helicopter Violated Estonian airspace and that the Russian military are simulating attacks against the Baltics on a daily basis.

I can’t help but feel that this is all designed to intimidate ahead of the NATO summit.

@whenwillwegetthereholly

I've mentioned Simonyan's husband because he specifically criticised Kazakhstan and their leadership. Yes, she's a journalist too but that was not the point I was trying to make.

Tokayev's response was important because it's one thing to say things when you're speaking to a journalist one to one, but entirely different when you're in front of a huge audience of lots of important government officials, including Putin that everyone is supposed to be afraid of. Even though a lot of Russians are starting to realise that Putin is just an aging sick man (although he looked pretty healthy to me at that particular time), a good number of them would still be under illusion that he's someone to be feared and you have to show loyalty at all costs. And here you have a president of, in their opinion, much lesser country (politically and economically), who tells him straight to his face, in a roundabout way, that he's wrong. And what does Putin do? Nothing. If you think it's not significant, we'll just agree to disagree.

Yes, I did later think why didn't I just go through the transcript. But then you miss out on all non verbal communication, like Tokayev looking really bored during Putin's detours into history, or all Putin's "umms.." and "errs..." I won't be doing that again though, transcripts it is from now on.

@OwlsDance the media in Russia and I think the moderator in particular have all made their views known about what Tokayev said though, according to the article I read in April. Again, none of this has been a secret. Tokayev asked for Russia's help at the beginning of the year in relation to an uprising and received it. This function still went ahead and I would imagine any real tension would have been dealt with in private. I might be totally wrong though. i am not sure either of us can know for sure.

You are right that we probably do interpret the interaction differently and we can agree to differ.

The topics were interesting to me to be honest because the discussions about unipolar vs multipolar have been going on a long time, and I think are relevant to the west, and I think are topical following the recent Bilderberg meetings and Soros speech. I also think it is interesting to hear the economic intentions. I read the transcript of the Soros speech, even though in my native tongue, as I found I was flicking through the actual speech and I thought reading it quickly was probably more reliable than clicking through it!

You have probably said many times before but I am not up to date on these threads - are you from a former USSR country? Please don't answer if you don't want to though.

Yes, I am, but I've lived in the UK for a good while now.

m.facebook.com/sergiy.grau/posts/pfbid0BR7mrSpGDsRLqjAKoRWTNVujPJY5oyh2NRNipEZpn4pp9WXm5aWHtKQn3GHAG6L8l I don't know if anyone has seen this, I have had to work for the last few days. Speech by the Ukrainian ambassador to the UN