Ukraine Invasion: Part 27

[MagicFox]

27th thread, thanks for the continued company and analysis all

Olga Lautman 🇺🇦
@OlgaNYC1211
Russia’s Ministry of Finance announced tax reform amid the collapse of budget revenues due to the war

(unconfirmed)

📌 Decisive battles are taking place on the territory of the Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk agglomerations, and the Russian leadership demands that its troops reach the administrative borders of the Luhansk region by June 26, – Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar.

mobile.twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1538928301489545216 Ukraine hits one of the oil rigs seized by Russia in 2014

mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1538920450650144770 Zelensky has visited Lysychansk in Luhansk Oblast

Ok, my ears are bleeding from listening to Putin's waffle for almost 2 hours. I couldn't find the place where he threatened Tokayev. However, they seem to have cut out the place where Putin purposefully mispronounced Tokayev's name, like a petulant five year old.

By the way, the moderator of the forum was pro-Putin Russian journalist's wife. The said journalist (the husband) is well known in criticising Kazakhstan and Tokayev in particular. So this was clearly a set up to intimidate Tokayev, similar to when Putin let a dog in during his meeting with Merkel, when he full well knew she had a phobia.

That's not gonna happen, Lysychansk will be much harder to take than Severodonetsk, which they've been trying to do for over 2 months now and counting...

Stoma can be for many reasons - commonly, though, an inflammatory disease issue like ulcerative colitis; an malignancy like bowel or stomach cancer; or an injury from e.g. a blockage that caused a fistula.

Could be anything, he does look a bit puffy-steroid-face, but I don't suppose we'll ever know what is going on with his health.

It could have been just a bit of shadow tbh. I wouldn't read too much into it.

@OwlsDance · Today 18:11
Ok, my ears are bleeding from listening to Putin's waffle for almost 2 hours. I couldn't find the place where he threatened Tokayev. However, they seem to have cut out the place where Putin purposefully mispronounced Tokayev's name, like a petulant five year old

By the way, the moderator of the forum was pro-Putin Russian journalist's wife. The said journalist (the husband) is well known in criticising Kazakhstan and Tokayev in particular. So this was clearly a set up to intimidate Tokayev, similar to when Putin let a dog in during his meeting with Merkel, when he full well knew she had a phobia.

Thank you for your account of this, and going to the trouble of listening to it all.

I can't get excited about reports of Putin's ill-health. When he goes, he will be replaced with someone the same or worse. In the same way we are effectively a two-party state in the UK, the system will always swing back towards a centralised figure in Russia. Putin is not a anomaly, even if he has amassed more personal power than most.

I have just been reading the latest intercepted call on wartranslated (the site Ijsbear I think told us about). A soldier is talking about looting and says that Putin ‘allowed it’ as he had said looting is not a criminal offence during hostilities.

He refers to a list of household goods someone else has looted. He himself is pleased with new Ukrainian boots and wants to get himself a bullet proof vest.

Intercepted Call: "Putin allowed us to loot" • WarTranslated - Dmitri Masinski

wartranslated.com/intercepted-call-putin-allowed-us-to-loot/

This programme which was just on Radio 4
is worth listening to for gaining some understanding of Germany’s attitude to Russia.

www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0018g6f

Germany and Russia: It's Complicated
Analysis

*In late February, three days after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz made a landmark speech in the German parliament, the Bundestag. The invasion, he declared, represented a 'Zeitenwende' - a turning point.^

The speech has been much discussed since - was Mr Scholz referring simply to the fact of the invasion, or to the way Germany needed to respond to it?

The speech contained a number of policy statements, the boldest of which was the commitment to set up a 100 billion Euro fund to re-equip Germany's outdated armed forces.

The question now is whether Germany will live up to Mr Scholz' promises, or will the cultural, political and economic bonds that have tied Germany and Russia together get in the way?

^Presenter: Caroline Bayley
Producer: Tim Mansel^

Galeev mentioned on one of his threads on how in terms of export and import Russia and Germany complement each other's economies. I thought this was quite interesting.

twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1537122850745815040?t=SIPIsExMn96tzg1VFhPlNA&s=19

@OwlsDance · Today 22:56
Those graphic explanations showing Russian/German interdependence are very good. There really is synergy between them, isn’t there?

This Russian war is so utterly destructive. Mutual support like that ought to be a means for good like Angela Merkel thought it would be. Now it seems it just bolsters a terrible regime while trapping Germany.

@OwlsDance the link to Kamil Galeev goes a long way to explain why Germany is acting so strangely during this war. Insightful take, extracts below:

"Strange behaviour of Germany during the war in Ukraine might make more sense if we consider that German and Russian economies are surprisingly compatible.

Indeed, German economy may have been a major benefactor of Putin's militarism
1. Putin builds the army
2. Pumps cash into the military industrial complex
3. Massive purchases of German machines, tools, components

It was the Germany that was the main provider of machine tools for the Russian industry and specifically for Putin's rearmament program

Why is Germany supporting Russia?

Because their economies are so compatible. Putin's militarism creates demand on German precision manufacturing tools & components. Thus German industrialists try to influence German politicians to be pro-Russian "to the extent it is possible"

Why is France advocating for peace?

Because it helped to keep Putin's military machine going after Crimea. After the 2014 it became much harder for the Russian military to get components for their industry. Fortunately, the French obliged and issued all the necessary licenses

Why China can't compensate for the loss of European suppliers?

Because Russian military producers didn't want it and the state didn't allow it. On public Putin conflicted with Europe and befriended China. In practice he didn't allow to switch to the Chinese technological import

Hypothesis:

Friendship with China is a political project. It's quite possible that the Russian political leadership and the upper bureaucracy don't really trust the Chinese machines, tools and components as much as the Western"

ISW Key Takeaways

Ukrainian sources stated that the coming week will be decisive for Russian forces to complete the capture of Severodonetsk and that Russian forces will focus troops and equipment on the area.

Ukrainian sources confirmed that Russian forces control all of Severodonetsk with the exception of the Azot industrial zone, where fights are ongoing.

Russian sources are likely setting information conditions to justify slow and unsuccessful advances towards Slovyansk from the southeast of Izyum and west of Lyman.

Russian forces are likely intensifying operations to interdict Ukrainian lines of communication along the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway in order to support escalating operations in Severodonetsk-Lysychansk.

Russian forces continued to focus on resisting further Ukrainian advances north of Kharkiv City towards the international border.

Russian forces are continuing defensive operations along the Southern Axis.

Ukrainian partisan activity is continuing to complicate efforts by Russian occupation authorities to consolidate control of occupied areas.

+++

Zelenskyy's official channel:

Now the deputies of the Verkhovna Rada have already left, and I am here. Specially to express gratitude to them. We often criticize them, but today they did a very good job.

I am grateful to all our people’s deputies who supported our European integration. I would like to note the vote in favor of the Council of Europe Convention on preventing and combating violence against women and domestic violence.
I would also like to thank the deputies who supported the Law on Waste Management. This is an important environmental document. The Anticorruption strategy was approved today. This is also very important.

I hope that the Rada will continue to work with the same significant results.

+++

Kyiv Independent

⚡️Bloomberg: All EU ambassadors reportedly support Ukraine’s bid ahead of historic vote. [I wonder how they twisted Hungary's arm?]

⚡️Bloomberg: EU looking to finalize $9.5 billion loan package for Ukraine.

⚡️Russian Nobel Peace laureate sells medal for over $103 million to help Ukraine’s refugees.
Novaya Gazeta editor Dmitry Muratov, the Russian co-winner of last year’s Nobel Peace Prize, has sold his prize medal for $103.5 million at an auction to raise money for displaced children affected by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. All proceeds will go to UNICEF, to help Ukraine’s child refugees.

⚡️Deputy Prime Minister: More than 1,500 Ukrainian civilians held in Russian prisons.

+++

@Ijsbear · Today 07:57

Thank you Ijsbear for your key takeaways this morning.

Russian forces continued to focus on resisting further Ukrainian advances north of Kharkiv City towards the international border.

I think Russia is likely to attack Kharkiv again:

Russia-Ukraine live news: Kyiv warns of renewed Kharkiv offensive
Moscow withdrew troops from Kharkiv after its deadly campaign failed to capture the region, but Zelenskyy says Russian forces are regrouping for a second attempt.

www.aljazeera.com/news/

They were talking about this on the most recent episode of Ukrainecast. Consensus is that Zelensky has warned of increased attacks and a push by the Russians to try and get their artillery within range of Kharkiv and that this warning will be based on sound intelligence.

I think its absolutely vital that Russian citizens actively fighting against the aggression of the state should be recognised. Dmitry Muratov is such a brave man and deserves every bit of recognition he receives.

news.sky.com/story/russian-journalist-auctions-nobel-peace-prize-medal-and-raises-84m-for-ukrainian-refugees-12637665

@Igotjelly · Today 09:32
I think its absolutely vital that Russian citizens actively fighting against the aggression of the state should be recognised. Dmitry Muratov is such a brave man and deserves every bit of recognition he receives.

I agree, and I think also that, in general, an all encompassing attitude of “If it’s Russian, hate it” is not wise.

It's a salutary reminder.

"When someone shows you who they are, believe them."

I still hope we see the rapists and mass murderers from this war arrested and hauled up in front of a tribunal to answer for their crimes.

I read that thread from Kamil Galeev. Two tweets leapt out at me:

Now let's do transport. Russia is not the Upper Volta with nukes. It's the Brazil with railways. [=absolutely reliant on railways]. Railways are the main means of:
1. Cargo
2. Long-distance passenger
3. To a lesser extent, daily commuting within large urban agglomerations

New Russian cargo trains use cassette bearings. In 2022 there were only three producers in Russia:
Тимкен ОВК (joint venture with the American Timken)
ЕПК-Бренко (joint venture with the subsidiary of the American Amsted Rail)
ООО СКФ (Swedish SKF)
They all stopped production.

Russia is already struggling with its flight infrastructure. I had (naively) assumed they would have in-country manufacture for their trains, given how important they are for movement. It's carnage in the UK when rail strikes happen and we are a tiny nation with a good motorway network.

So what happens to something as big as a continent when the planes are grounded and the trains stop?

interesting last point here

Losses are over 34k now.

Reports that Russian families are being given the runaround and getting absolutely no info in many cases. Also some Ukrainian war crimes are happening.

very well worth reading. He's Russian FSB through and through but gives much more accurate pictures than most and intelligent assessments.

wartranslated.com/day-117-june-20-summary-of-arestovych-and-feygin-daily-broadcast/

again it's worth remembering this guy is 100% pro-Russia FSB, so everything has to be filtered through the lens of "why is he saying this" but this is his assessment of the length of the war

Longevity: 2-3 years of war are unlikely, Russian attempts could last maximum until next summer. Current Russian plan is to assemble 10 BTGs every month, but they are already using T-62 tanks, so even executing this plan is doubtful. Russia even sending groups of 3-4 tanks, not whole battalions. Russia was expecting tiredness of West. Media coverage decrease is normal after 120 days. It will increase, when Ukraine starts offensive.

EU supports Ukraine much more than 50%, preparing for long conflict. There is no perspective for Putin’s regime.

Collapse will start with some Russian units refusing orders, then more units. Some units will sabotage orders. At some moment, they would just leave, without explanation, not willing to die. Similarities to Kyiv, many will think that nothing changes. Possibly until end of this year.