Ukraine Invasion: Part 27

[MagicFox]

27th thread, thanks for the continued company and analysis all

Interesting to read all the latest posts on Poland closing the airspace around Western Ukraine.

With the caveat that I know nothing, I wonder whether it is because the heavy weapons from US etc are starting to arrive in Ukraine and Ukraine needs air cover to get them in place.

I had the vague impression that countries could make unilateral decisions like this but that if there was aggressive action then NATO would not defend any attacking country. May well be wrong! If this is the case though and Russia counterattacks it would be interesting where the NATO leadership draw the line.

Putin making it clear that he has his sights on Latvia next has upped the ante, I reckon.

Ref the photograph accompanying the Telegraph article up thread. An eagle eyed BTL commenter spotted the rectangular shape showing through Putin's shirt and speculated:

Putin looks so unwell in the picture atop this piece. Anyone can see it.
Are we seeing the outline of some sort of stoma equipment through that shirt?

Any medical experts that could corroborate?

I have to say weapons deliveries or not or as far as I can see ATM nothing much has changed with regard to Polish airspace, certainly not at high level.

There's nothing I can find that is relevant to this in the Polish NOTAMs (Official Notices to Aviators), there's nothing of much significance being put out by Eurocontrol other than delays in the airspace around Warsaw, and that's been a problem since the invasion.

One look at the tracker sites (e.g. Flightradar, ADS-B) still shows operators such as Ryanair happily routing between the likes of Vilnius and Tel Aviv at high altitude, tracking just the western side of the Ukraine-Polish border.

AFAIK all we've actually heard is one or two social media comments by official saying the Poles might be about to provide Air-Defence/Anti-Missile defence over Western Ukraine.

Worrying development @KevinRothrock

This has the potential for big escalation.

Russia gives “ultimatum” to Lithuania after Vilnius bans Kaliningrad rail transit of goods sanctioned by EU. “Retaliatory measures” will follow, says Peskov. RIA’s report ends by citing Putin’s warning that the West seeks to “weaken & contain” Russia. ria.ru/20220620/litva…

Looks like it could be a bag, but given the context and individual involved I'd be surprised if Putin or his advisors hadn't taken steps to ensure a bag, if used, remained hidden from view.

Not that I'm suspicious at all but it's almost so obvious my alarm bells are ringing. Do we have any doubts about the provenance of the image...

I guess I have a couple of thoughts on this:

1. Is it just more bullshit and a bluff to make Lithuania back down.
2. What 'retaliatory measures' are anticipated.

@notimagain Not that I'm suspicious at all but it's almost so obvious my alarm bells are ringing. Do we have any doubts about the provenance of the image...

Could it be a deep fake? Conspiracy theories abound.

Thanks, notimagain, for explaining that there are no obvious indications on the ground ('in the air'?) that Poland is closing the airspace. So great that you can read these markers.

@DesdamonasHandkerchief · Today 13:12
Ref the photograph accompanying the Telegraph article up thread. An eagle eyed BTL commenter spotted the rectangular shape showing through Putin's shirt and speculated:

Putin looks so unwell in the picture atop this piece. Anyone can see it.
Are we seeing the outline of some sort of stoma equipment through that shirt?

Any medical experts that could corroborate?

I am not a medical expert. I can see the shape under the shirt which seems to look rectangular at the top and not soft. On line you can find images of stoma equipment and none I saw looks like this. They look softer and more rounded, and often seem to be partially held, or hidden, by an elastic girdle. Here is an image (without any girdle). If that is the case, I wonder what it is Putin has on?

Daft question but wonder if it’s related to a microphone seeing as he’s speaking publicly

They look softer and more rounded, and often seem to be partially held, or hidden, by an elastic girdle. Here is an image (without any girdle). If that is the case....

I've lived such an exciting life I've even got expertise on this.🙄
FWIW I've had the pleasure of having to use a (temporary) bag...

So having checked the scars for a reminder😯, mine same side as Putin's, it sat possibly slightly lower on the abdomen than his appears to do... I guess exact position will possibly vary with the procedure ( one for the medics) and the position will be distorted by sitting position. Mine certainly generally didn't sit quite as low as the one in the "demonstration" image, and I never had a girdle, the thing just dangled from it's support at the top.....

I was offered a choice of bags, can't really remember the various shapes and am no expert on what is in the Russian inventory....

I guess a bag with a decent fart in it might appear rigid if it was phtographed at an unfortunate angle under thin cotton shirt.

I'd be very surprised if he did have a stoma that it wasn't kept under a wrap to prevent exactly this happening.

Mind you, he looked like he had knee collapsing and maybe spasms in the last few weeks too.

@vivariumvivariumsvivaria

Agreed, both the first and especially the second para..

This is a sort of derailment, derived from a train of looking up what apparatus might be worn under a shirt ( re the Putin photo). I had looked up ‘nuclear button that can be worn under a shirt’ in case Putin has his ‘command’ always at hand.

This article came up because of the juxtaposition of ‘nuclear’ and ‘clothes’.

It is written (2011) by someone whose job it was to sit in front of the nuclear detonation controls, and it is very interesting. They are called ‘missileers’.

In Nuclear Silos, Death Wears a Snuggie | WIRED

www.wired.com/2011/01/death-wears-a-snuggie/
www.wired.com/2011/01/death-wears-a-snuggie/amp

Another question for medics.

What is the significance of a stoma? I assume he will have some medical issue but it does not mean he is dying. Is it a sign of cancer treatment?

Uh huh. What's he going to do, threaten to nuclear bomb them?

more seriously, I'm afraid I really cant take any more threats seriously. He's already working flat out in cyber warfare, except that now Russia's on the defensive since various organisations including govt ones are attacking in the cybersphere.

Economically? what's he going to do, cut the gas and oil off?

Militarily, again, just what's he going to do?

Remember the Russian modus operandi to throw threats around and see if someone gets scared and offers them something. Frankly I tihnk the chances are that this is yet more posturing.

Only speaking from a personal perspective but my close family member wears a stoma following removal of part of her bowel for cancer treatment. She’s otherwise perfectly healthy and certainly not dying, just somewhat inconvenienced.

I had looked up ‘nuclear button that can be worn under a shirt’ in case Putin has his ‘command’ always at hand.

That's done using a thing called "Cheget", the equivalent of POTUS's "football".

Basically head of State/C in C is accompanied on his travels at all times by an aide who carries a special briefcase which contains all that is necessary to do the deed.

@notimagain · Today 15:07
I had looked up ‘nuclear button that can be worn under a shirt’ in case Putin has his ‘command’ always at hand.

That's done using a thing called "Cheget", the equivalent of POTUS's "football".

Basically head of State/C in C is accompanied on his travels at all times by an aide who carries a special briefcase which contains all that is necessary to do the deed.

Thank you notimagain again. That is interesting.

They would need to watch out for an unforeseen event that causes scattering and confusion in the building leading to the head of state getting separated from the Cheget carrier.

The cheget case looks far less bulky than the ‘football’s” judging from images.

Igotjelly, thanks for sharing your experience. Glad your sister's treatment was successful.

Notimagain, also appreciate your experience of the 'temporary' bag with your characteristic sharp-eyed detail and analysis thrown in.

⚡️The Verkhovna Rada supported the ratification of the Istanbul Convention, which is one of the conditions for granting Ukraine the status of candidate for EU membership, - said Deputy Osadchuk.

254 people’s deputies voted for, 4 - against, 26 - abstained.

@ScrollingLeaves , thanks for the link. The ‘missileers’ have a weird existence. Those dials have not been seen since Soviet times. 'Pulling down code books and binders' - I mean even now nobody uses paper dictionaries. Must be quite slow if you have to decide whether to blow up the world or not.

Interesting it takes 4 hands to launch a nuclear strike, to avoid a lone looney destroying the world.

Boredom is the ultimate enemy. I cannot help but think anyone in that bunker would go completely stir crazy and possessed like Jack Nicholson in The Shining.

🇩🇰 Denmark has officially joined the EU defense policy – EU Foreign Minister Josep Borrell

Interesting it takes 4 hands to launch a nuclear strike, to avoid a lone looney destroying the world.

But it's such a paradox isn't it - what if there are four loonies?! It just shouldn't be the case that a few men could destroy the world if they decided to. I know the horse has bolted but the Kazakhstan president is right when he says we should aim for a world without nuclear weapons in the next 50 years

Or one loony and 3 intimidated people.

About Russia, China and central Asia including Kazakhstan

warontherocks.com/2022/06/the-sheriff-and-the-banker-russia-and-china-in-central-asia/

Btw, on reflection I think the lithuania/Kaliningrad situation is one to watch. Russia is ~not~ going to take losing easy access to the industrial Kaliningrad well, and if it tries to force flyover into unwelcoming territory, it will be a question of what Lithuania does.