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Ukraine Invasion: Part 27

990 replies

MagicFox · 03/06/2022 13:48

27th thread, thanks for the continued company and analysis all

OP posts:
Thread gallery
52
TheABC · 19/06/2022 22:03

Igotjelly · 19/06/2022 21:10

It’s a lot of folk but 150,000 random people/reservists are very different to 150,000 trained soldiers.

I am sure I read somewhere that Russia had 900,000 active personnel in their army. They can afford to lose the February intake, this latest supply and still have two-thirds left over.

As @Igotjelly, you can have a lot of uniformed bodies, but having the training, bullets and bandages to support them is another headache entirely. That's where the sanctions will (hopefully) bite home.

ScrollingLeaves · 19/06/2022 22:06

Ukraine to restrict Russian books, music in latest cultural break from Moscow | Reuters

www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-restrict-russian-books-music-latest-cultural-break-moscow-2022-06-19/

I’d be interested to know people’s views on this. I can partly see why they are saying no Russian authors post 1991 unless they take a Russian passport. I wonder about the rule about no books printed in Russia? If that means Tolstoy, Pushkin , Dostoyevsky, et al that would be appalling. Maybe they mean modern Russian authors though, can anyone else make this out accurately?

This is open to being interpreted through ‘Chinese whispers’ on meaning a ban on any Russian art, even though I don’t think that is what it means.

I wouldn’t go this far if I were in Ukraine’s position. I fear it could feed the wrong narrative.

Ijsbear · 19/06/2022 22:14

advertising higher pay for soldiers, conscripting Donetsk and Luhansk men willing or no, getting mercenaries. Talking of which it's all gone quiet about Wagner atm

Ijsbear · 19/06/2022 23:09

about recruitment. Der Spiegel has an agenda but it does its research well, Im told

RedToothBrush · 19/06/2022 23:11

Ben Judah AT b_judah
The gap between “committed” and delivered military aid to Ukraine during the war is very revealing: suddenly Poland and the UK appear much more critical military partners — goes a long way to explaining the enthusiasm for Boris Johnson and the Polish leadership on the ground.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 27
Hillsmakeyoustrong · 19/06/2022 23:24

So he's about to kill more Russian men in order to murder more Ukrainians. I don't know what the after life looks like (I strongly believe in one) but I would not be able to sleep at night from sheer terror if I was Putin.

I feel like something has to seriously change. Does anyone think (from news headlines) that changes are afoot? I'm thinking particularly of the sky closure over Western Ukraine and the amassing of NATO troops...

RedToothBrush · 19/06/2022 23:26

Jimmy at JimmySecUk
Ancient Russian T-62M tanks, seen moving towards the front in Luhansk, Eastern Ukraine.

It seems difficult to understand why Russia would be using such old vehicles if they had sufficient stocks operational T-72/T-80 models in storage.

Note that the T-62 uses a different gun (115mm vs 125mm) to the majority of other Russian tanks in service, needs different spare parts and also requires an extra crew member (it doesn't use a autoloader).

All this will further stress already straining Russian logistics chains.

If memory serves, they were prioritising the newest tanks to the Donbas, often relocating ones from Kherson area, whilst they sent the oldest stock to Kherson.

If they are sending the oldest stuff to the Donbas now, it does suggest they've got a bit of a problem. Especially if this equipment uses alternative ammunition.

You wouldn't do that unless you had a problem.

blueshoes · 20/06/2022 00:02

RedToothBrush · 19/06/2022 23:11

Ben Judah AT b_judah
The gap between “committed” and delivered military aid to Ukraine during the war is very revealing: suddenly Poland and the UK appear much more critical military partners — goes a long way to explaining the enthusiasm for Boris Johnson and the Polish leadership on the ground.

@RedToothBrush Fascinating graphic. The gap between “committed” and delivered military aid to Ukraine is an interesting metric.

US has committed an overwhelming large amount by far but has delivered barely half. Germany is worse having delivered only a third but that is not unexpected. Denmark is surprisingly bad. Greece is pathetic. Sweden is not even on the list as having committed any weapons but maybe they committed humanitarian aid instead which doesn't show on the list. Italy and France do deliver on their word though not much.

blueshoes · 20/06/2022 00:06

@Hillsmakeyoustrong I feel like something has to seriously change. Does anyone think (from news headlines) that changes are afoot? I'm thinking particularly of the sky closure over Western Ukraine and the amassing of NATO troops...

I haven't heard of the sky closure over Western Ukraine. Whose planes are closing the sky?

ScrollingLeaves · 20/06/2022 00:32

@Ijsbear · Today 23:09
about recruitment. Der Spiegel has an agenda but it does its research well, Im told

What is it’s agenda?

@Ijsbear · Today 23:09
www.spiegel.de/international/world/high-casualties-russia-pulls-out-all-the-stops-to-find-fresh-troops-a-254bf9c2-c83b-4492-8dea-1f5cec53b03e

The recruiters’ techniques seem to leave little chance for poor young men. It is very upsetting to see those young faces of boys who have only just grown up.

This war seems as filled with butchery as WW1.

blueshoes · 20/06/2022 00:48

@ScrollingLeaves The recruiters’ techniques seem to leave little chance for poor young men. It is very upsetting to see those young faces of boys who have only just grown up.

Those 2 boys looked so despondent and lost. It is heartbreaking for them and their mothers to have to go off and most likely not come back at all or in one piece.

RedToothBrush · 20/06/2022 07:54

blueshoes · 20/06/2022 00:02

@RedToothBrush Fascinating graphic. The gap between “committed” and delivered military aid to Ukraine is an interesting metric.

US has committed an overwhelming large amount by far but has delivered barely half. Germany is worse having delivered only a third but that is not unexpected. Denmark is surprisingly bad. Greece is pathetic. Sweden is not even on the list as having committed any weapons but maybe they committed humanitarian aid instead which doesn't show on the list. Italy and France do deliver on their word though not much.

I was really surprised by it too. No wonder Putin is pissed at the UK and Poland.

Ijsbear · 20/06/2022 09:05

I haven't heard of the sky closure over Western Ukraine. Whose planes are closing the sky?

It seems that Poland is talking very seriously about it and the Czech republic and Latvia iirc are pretty well in alliance with Poland over this. Please check that tho - im super tired and I forget a lot.

@ScrollingLeaves der Spiegel is left leaning. "A good few years ago the editor in chief of the Spiegel put it like that "when in doubt - we lean left""

Natsku · 20/06/2022 09:13

blueshoes · 20/06/2022 00:02

@RedToothBrush Fascinating graphic. The gap between “committed” and delivered military aid to Ukraine is an interesting metric.

US has committed an overwhelming large amount by far but has delivered barely half. Germany is worse having delivered only a third but that is not unexpected. Denmark is surprisingly bad. Greece is pathetic. Sweden is not even on the list as having committed any weapons but maybe they committed humanitarian aid instead which doesn't show on the list. Italy and France do deliver on their word though not much.

Perhaps sweden doesn't announce what it's sending so won't show. I do know it was sending military stuff earlier on so likely it hasn't switched to humanitarian only.

Poland, and the baltics all delivering what they promise there but that's hardly surprising, they know how essential it is.

Ijsbear · 20/06/2022 09:15

ISW Key Takeaways

Concentrated Russian artillery power paired with likely understrength infantry units remains insufficient to enable Russian advances within Severodonetsk.

Russian forces continued to prepare to advance on Slovyansk from southeast of Izyum and west of Lyman.

Russian forces are focusing on strengthening defensive positions along the Southern Axis due to recent successful Ukrainian counterattacks along the Kherson-Mykolaiv Oblast border.

Successful Ukrainian counterattacks in the Zaporizhia area are forcing Russian forces to rush reinforcements to this weakened sector of the front line.

Russian forces are likely conducting false-flag artillery attacks against Russian-held territory to dissuade Ukrainian sentiment and encourage the mobilization of proxy forces.

+++

⚡️NYT: Russia used in Ukraine over 210 types of ammunition banned under international treaties. A New York Times investigation examined over 1,000 photos and identified more than 2,000 munitions used by the Russian army in Ukraine, an absolute majority of which were unguided. More than 330 weapons analyzed by NYT appeared to have been used on or near civilian structures.

⚡️Zelensky: Historic week ahead, Russia expected to step up ‘hostile activity’. Zelenskyy: A week when we will hear the answer from the European Union on the candidate status for Ukraine. And in such a week, we should expect greater hostile activity from Russia.

⚡️ Governor: Threat of water contamination at Russian-seized iron ore plant in Zaporizhzhia. Should the Zaporizhzhia Iron Ore Plant stop pumping water, there are risks that surrounding ground water will be contaminated by iron ore. The plant ceased operations in March.

⚡️ Defense Minister: Ukraine to display fragments of Russian military equipment across Europe.

⚡️ Ukraine’s military: Russia reinforces Black Sea fleet. Ukraine’s Operational Command “South” said there are currently three surface ships and three submarines with a total arsenal of 36 missiles and three airborne corps.

⚡️ General Staff: Russian forces continue to fire on settlements in Donbas, focus on Sievierodonetsk and Bakhmut.

⚡️Governor: Ukraine loses control over Metolkino village near Sievierodonetsk.

+++

UkraineNOW

🍔 "The government of Ukraine is cooperating with the leadership of the McDonald's fast food chain to reopen restaurants in Ukraine in the near future," Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said.

💡 Fenix Insight creates playing cards for Ukrainians that teach them to distinguish between types of mines and shells. There are 60 cards in the deck, and each of them has a text in Ukrainian and English about explosives. [so this idea went ahead! great news]

📈 President Macron's coalition won a majority in the French parliament

❌ The invaders stole 15,000 tons of sunflower and 10,000 tons of grain from the granaries of the Luhansk region, said the head of the regional military administration Serhiy Haidai

Kazakhstan blocked 1,700 wagons of Russian coal on its territory in response to Russia blocking the export of Kazakh oil [this whole situation is really interesting and Kazahkstan is in danger]
❗️ In an interview with the Govorit Moskva radio station, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs Konstantin Zatulin tacitly threatened Kazakhstan with a Russian invasion according to the Ukrainian scenario. Zatulin said that there are areas in Kazakhstan "with a predominantly Russian population" that, in his opinion, have a "weak relation" to what is called Kazakhstan. “Everywhere, including in relation to Ukraine, we say: if we have friendship, cooperation, partnership, then no territorial issues are raised. And if not, then everything is possible. As is the case with Ukraine,” Zatulin said. The Russian-Kazakh conflict, caused by President Tokayev's refusal to recognize the L/DPR gangs, continues to gain momentum.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 27
Ukraine Invasion: Part 27
Ukraine Invasion: Part 27
notimagain · 20/06/2022 09:18

blueshoes · 20/06/2022 00:06

@Hillsmakeyoustrong I feel like something has to seriously change. Does anyone think (from news headlines) that changes are afoot? I'm thinking particularly of the sky closure over Western Ukraine and the amassing of NATO troops...

I haven't heard of the sky closure over Western Ukraine. Whose planes are closing the sky?

Not heard anything, even rumour, about further airspace denial/closures having taken place..

The source of the story may be this comment seemingly made in the last day or two(?):

"Poland can provide air defense of the western regions of Ukraine if Russia continues rocket attacks. This was stated by Brigadier General and ex-head of the National Security Bureau of Poland Stanislav Kozei in an interview with Onet."

Note he says "can", so I've no doubt in that the Brigadier General is correct...whether they will, or are about to is one for the politicians.

Link to the statement, no idea of the credibility rating.

www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vg1it8/poland_can_provide_air_defense_of_the_western/?utm_term=1901396348&utm_medium=post_embed&utm_source=embed&utm_name=&utm_content=header

Ijsbear · 20/06/2022 09:20

About the threats to Kazahkstan - this could play out interestingly. Russia can't afford another war at this point. So If Ukraine wins, then I bet if Russia tries to invade Kazakhstan then Ukr will go to their aid and perhaps other countries. If Russia wins, I wonder if other countries will still support Kazakhstan because of the threat that Russia is generally posing.

I suspect that Russia will try to suborn and assassinate politicans there to get Kazakhstan on side. I hope the leader is being very careful.

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 20/06/2022 09:42

Hi I've tried twice to paste the link to the news stories relating to Poland closing the skies. It has been covered in Ukrainian local newspapers not in international headlines. Sorry to mislead.

ScrollingLeaves · 20/06/2022 10:07

@Ijsbear
Thank you very much for your key takeaways.

Ijsbear · 20/06/2022 10:42

I'd read that too Hills

Ukr seems to be attackign Snake Island again.

WarMonitor🇺🇦
@WarMonitor3
·
18m
“Ukraine is currently bombarding Russian occupied Snake Island.”
No escape for them

Ijsbear · 20/06/2022 11:24

Samuel Ramani
@SamRamani2
·
1h
BREAKING: A German government source confirms that Sweden and Finland will reach a deal to join NATO. It is unclear whether this deal will be struck by the Madrid Summit

(Samuel Ramani is one of the more respected Twitterati regarding the war)

Ijsbear · 20/06/2022 12:15

Tactical_OSINT
@TactictalOSINT
·
Jun 19
Poland said that any day they could introduce anti-missile defense over western Ukraine.

Poland seems to be moving to a more ... um, aggressive? firm? defense attitude.

Tillsforthrills · 20/06/2022 12:22

Ijsbear · 20/06/2022 12:15

Tactical_OSINT
@TactictalOSINT
·
Jun 19
Poland said that any day they could introduce anti-missile defense over western Ukraine.

Poland seems to be moving to a more ... um, aggressive? firm? defense attitude.

Would this be permitted by NATO?

Would Poland then be backed up by other nations?

notimagain · 20/06/2022 12:39

Tillsforthrills · 20/06/2022 12:22

Would this be permitted by NATO?

Would Poland then be backed up by other nations?

I think we need to know what system is being postulated here before it's possible to make any really meaningful comment.

The Poles ordered Patriot a few years back and supposedly have their first two batteries now, which may or may not yet be operational....haven't kept up with the details.

www.reuters.com/article/poland-defence-patriot-idUSL2N2XG0H0

In theory suitably positioned in Poland one or both of those batteries could probably provide some anti-missile defence over Western Ukraine.

Quite what their actual Rules of Engagement would be and what NATO/US position on this is ?????