Ukraine Invasion: Part 27

[MagicFox]

27th thread, thanks for the continued company and analysis all

⚡️ Chinese leader Xi Jinping signed a directive stating that China's armed forces can be used for "non-military" purposes

Radio Free Asia notes that this may indicate preparations for an invasion of Taiwan under the guise of a "special operation."

The rumblings from that direction are worrying me.

Gazprom had to cut down gas transfer on Nordstream by over 40% due to lack of parts and Siemens no longer servicing it. So there might be no need to include gas into sanctions, it looks like Russia might be unable to deliver it soon even if they wanted to. I hope EU are working really hard on their plan B...

@Ijsbear · Today 13:53
people have to be more careful on Social Media.

Someone posted where some of the US arms and vehicles were resting on their way to the front and the Russians located the place and blew them up

That is awful. It looks so bad given the need to beg for these weapons. What are modern armies supposed to do @notimagain @TargusEasting - anyone - to stop soldiers being a liability to themselves through modern media?

The training ground for foreign soldiers joining Ukraine on the border near Poland got blown up by Russians because of all the phones (emitting signals? or giving information?).

@notimagain, thanks for the repeated reality checks re the complexity of deploying equipment.

I'm all too aware of the human propensity to enact this Dilbert cartoon, and believe that anything we don't understand must be easy to do.

dilbert.com/strip/1994-10-17

anyone need a keyring? only 1000 dollars and might buy some ammo

www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/06/13/ukrainian-army-crowdfunds-selling-russian-weaponry-wreckage/

Good one from Dilbert

I like a good merch.

Do you have a link to the site? Telegraph is behind a pay wall for me.

Id love one, but out of my budget. Brilliant idea tho!

Yikes, not $1,000. Maybe they sell a fridge magnet for less.

@ScrollingLeaves I saw your @ to me and was just scrolling through to catch up before replying, and saw this post. I read the article you referred to, linked by notimagain, and I am not sure whether or not anyone else has picked up on this yet, but it is pretty clear (more towards the end but you have to read the whole thing) that the key issues for Russia were NATO, neo nazis, etc. It goes into detail about why the issues may have arisen. It says that Russia would be a better strategic partner than the west in order to preserve Ukraine's sovereignty.

I am just commenting on the article itself, as you referred to it. I will reply to your other post after catching up.

Someone posted where some of the US arms and vehicles were resting on their way to the front and the Russians located the place and blew them up

Shit :( this is why arms transfers need to be kept secret until they have safely arrived.

@ScrollingLeaves just going back to your post to me (pages ago!) I am not sure whether this is what you were asking, but the 2014 referendum in Donbas and the Minsk agreements were about autonomy for Russian speakers within Ukraine – ie this is what I meant by parallels to Wales within UK. Things have obviously moved on from 2014.

Re Motorola, I didn't know much about him but googled – if you google his real name you will find a wiki page on him.

@PerkingFaintly

Thanks for the Dilbert...😊

@ScrollingLeaves

. What are modern armies supposed to do @notimagain @TargusEasting - anyone - to stop soldiers being a liability to themselves through modern media?

Personally no idea, I left the mil well before SM had been invented...🙄

However I did have the opportunity in later years in the civilian world to on occasions witness (and try and head off) the absolute Brain/rules/common sense disconnect that can occur with some people when they perceive an SM opportunity....
;
Scene - Customs and Immigration at an airport in the States.

Junior Colleague: "Why is that nasty man in uniform shouting at me, it's my first time here and I'm only trying to get a selfie of the event to show my friends"

Me "Well..... you see all those signs plastered around that say "no phones, no photos"..that includes you..."

Career suicide by Whatsapp/Facebook was not unknown where I worked so heaven knows how the military control it, maybe @TargusEasting has more insight.

Someone asked why Russia would be targeting civilians they’re supposedly there to rescue…..they don’t see them as civilians, they’re Ukr soldiers pretending to be civilians, they’re conspiring against Russia and informing the Ukr army. They’re being held as hostages by Ukr army so their loss is necessary to get the army. They’re hiding weapons and things for the Ukr army. Schools, hospitals, theatres they’re all weapons depots now. And any other bloody excuse to justify it.

As far as war being something for thick kids I do, I wonder if to a certain extent that is true still for some of the army on both sides, but particularly Russia, the canon fodder don’t need to be skilled at anything other than shooting and given how many people one lone gunman regularly kills at school shootings in America a bunch of cannon folder soldiers aiming in the right direction will have some success for Russia, especially if they don’t care about shooting civilians. Of course we may be way beyond that level of canon fodder in this war but would the old soviet dumb weapons need much training on?

When my daughter was posted in Afghan, their phones were blocked if anyone was killed, to make sure the families were notified by the Army carefully and officially rather than reading on social media that their soldier had been killed. She warned me in advance that she might be out of comms sometimes with no warning. The same was true in Somalia, and again in South Sudan.

In the matter of highly trained and skilled; one member of her platoon had difficulty multiplying by ten when he arrived, and an early part of his on-the-job training was teaching him how to do that.

i still wish there was a better solution for Ukraine than us letting them be bombed so much.

How Likely is it that Russia, having been planning this for years have munitions factories up and going and producing loads more of the stuff they need?

Have we heard anything more about Biden approaching factories in the states to see how quickly they can get things produced? Are we, or any of Europe, setting up production outside of Normal peace time weapons manufacturing?

surely we need to be on that so we/nato don’t run out of our stockpiles as well as so we can keep supplying Ukraine.

Hear hear.

I hope someone knowledgeable can enlighten whether US and other NATO countries (forget Germany!) are ramping up production.

Not just for Ukraine but so they don't run out of stocks if China gets ideas about Taiwan ... The West was caught flatfooted by Russia who had been building up their arsenal. I fear China is too.

Interesting about the phones, thanks...

Completely understand the point being made about the capabilities of some in the infantry (of many nations), OTOH even there you find a few smart cookies around who choose to move on to other things, and of course many of the trades and specialisations demand more than simply the ability to jump when told to, point a weapon and dig a hole when ordered.

Russia won't be able to produce anything on large scale. They depend on import for parts and components, and sanctions have cut that off. They can't even supply gas in the volumes they need, their whole industries are grinding to a halt due to collapsed import and high tech companies like Siemens pulling out.

They could find alternatives in China or elsewhere but it will take years.

The disinformation has really ramped up today.

They are really pushing the info that Ukraine is numbing and shelling civilians

They've been doing it for the last 8 years tbh.

An interesting one that I'm seeing more of lately is that Poland is allegedly trying to build an empire and wants to absorb Ukraine.

@owlsdance I haven't heard about the Poland thing, but both the UN and OSCE have reported shelling by Ukraine against civilian areas in the autonomist side. Google says:

"During war between 2014 and 2021 in East Ukraine, more than 14,000 people were killed, including nearly 3,400 civilians. Civilians accounted for 89% of explosive weapons casualties, according to a report by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs-PAX"

@owlsdance I posted that too soon. Are you saying that you think that that is incorrect info or propaganda?

@LoveLarry · Today 19:15
The disinformation has really ramped up today.

They are really pushing the info that Ukraine is numbing and shelling civilians

Remind me of the numbers of how Ukraine is out gunned and out manned? I have forgotten the massive decrepancy.

Given this and the fact that shelling goes on more or less all the time, you’d think they’d work out who is the most likely to be causing the most destruction.

Plus Russia is using cluster bombs and shells with little precision.

@whenwillwegetthereholly · Today 17:06

Thank you for taking the time to respond to that discussion from a few days ago. Things move on so fast I had forgotten.

I do think that even if NATO is grist to the mill for Putin’s anger, with the ‘Nazi’ thrown in for more catalyst to draw the public with him, really it is much more that Putin wants back what was lost with the end of the Soviet Union, and the consolidation of a Soviet world.

Here he is on Russia Day giving voice to his Imperial mood. This has an English translation.

fwww.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/06/14/russia-putin-new-propaganda-ukraine-pleitgen-lead-dnt-intl-hnk-vpx.cnn