Ukraine Invasion: Part 27

[MagicFox]

27th thread, thanks for the continued company and analysis all

Thanks, @minsmum. I have donated.

I thought the same, @OwlsDance

I have been reading more from wartranslated which Ijsbear posted this morning.
Life in DPR as told by Donbas residents • WarTranslated - Dmitri Masinski

wartranslated.com/life-in-dpr-as-told-by-donbas-residents/

From the Independent
www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-sanctions-putin-health-latest-b2099785.html

Goal of Russian invasion is to protect Donetsk and Luhansk, says Moscow

The main goal of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is to protect the two separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in the east of the country, Moscow has reportedly said.

The RIA state news agency has cited Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as saying: “In general, the protection of the republics is the main goal of the special military operation.”

If they are protecting them, why are they conscripting them with inadequate kit and using them as cannon fodder?

If they are protecting them, why are they shelling and bombing their homes and infrastructure?

This
wartranslated.com/life-in-dpr-as-told-by-donbas-residents/
shows how it is for the ‘liberated’.

twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1536474288261414913?t=UARYFfIVcBcL9xUTUHa7aQ&s=19

This is worth reading about weapons supplies (take with salt as it's opinion, not fact), The logistics and maintenance chime with what I have been told by my own family (military engineers). In a nutshell, it's never just about the damn rocket launcher but everything else that comes with it. Across a minimum of 600 miles of Ukrainian territory.

Further to @OwlsDance post yesterday, Arthur Snell's Doomsday Watch podcast is all about Russian Mina information today: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/doomsday-watch-with-arthur-snell/id1593634121?i=1000566221673

Mind Control: Why Millions Think Russia is Winning

Those in the West would be forgiven for thinking Ukraine is winning the information war, with slick videos of President Zelenskyy appearing all over social media. However for those in the Global South, the content they consume about the war is much more pro-Russia.
To explain this phenomenon and the wider context, Carl Miller, Research Director at the Demos Centre for the Analysis of Social Media, joins Arthur Snell for another War Bulletin.
We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. You can support our work on the crowdfunding app Patreon: doomsdaywatch.co.uk
Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: ukrainewar.carrd.co/
• “Wrenching heartbreak for Ukraine is completely unbroken on my social media feeds.”
• ”Russia and China have tried to meddle in open information spaces to manipulate the world's view of them.”
• “You only have to Google ’buy retweets‘ to see how readily available these services are. It's not expensive for states to run these campaigns.”
• ”We need widen the array of responses to this tradecraft, beyond platform takedown, digital literacy campaigns and journalistic exposé.”
• ”Western governments need to support ways for Russian citizens to access information that already exists. Let them use Wikipedia.”

Misinformation, don't know who Mina is!

@TheABC · Today 00:42
twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1536474288261414913?t=UARYFfIVcBcL9xUTUHa7aQ&s=19

This is worth reading about weapons supplies (take with salt as it's opinion, not fact), The logistics and maintenance chime with what I have been told by my own family (military engineers). In a nutshell, it's never just about the damn rocket launcher but everything else that comes with it. Across a minimum of 600 miles of Ukrainian territory.

Thank you that is very informative. It really portrays the large system made up of specifically trained engineers, spare parts and supply routes that needs to go with any weapons.

Was he was implying that Ukraine is being unrealistic asking for more weapons? Or just letting the public know why it is difficult to supply them quickly?

What is the “1/6 Report”?

IMHO that's a good take on things by Hertling..

"Was he was implying that Ukraine is being unrealistic asking for more weapons?"

I suspect he was - there's certainly a bit of being unrealistic about....There have been some 🤔 who have been saying for a while that NATO/US quite possibly doesn't have the stocks some people think they have. Nevertheless there are now reports that some politicians are requesting amounts of equipment that are bigger then the US or even the whole NATO inventory..

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/13/ukraine-asks-the-west-for-huge-rise-in-heavy-artillery-supply

What is the “1/6 Report”?

Isn't that the report on Trump/insurrection/Capitol etc...

I think Hertling is basically saying that had pushed a lot of the Ukraine related stories out of the MSM in some parts of the world.

Thank you owlsDance for that more balanced message.

The Kyiv Independent, [14/06/2022 04:13]
⚡️ Politico: European Commission to give green light on Ukraine’s EU candidacy.
Politico, citing officials privy to the information, said the European Commission will recommend granting Ukraine official EU candidate status following discussions on June 13.

+++

The next step will be for Ukraine’s candidacy to receive unanimous approval from the 27 heads of state in the European Council.

ISW Key Takeaways

Russian forces pushed Ukrainian defenders from the center of Severodonetsk and reportedly destroyed the remaining bridge from Severodonetsk to Lysychansk on June 13, but Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces are not encircled in the city.

Russian forces carried out unsuccessful ground assaults in an attempt to sever Ukrainian ground lines of communications (GLOCs) near Popasna and Bakhmut.

Russian forces launched unsuccessful offensive operations southeast of Izyum and north of Slovyansk, and are likely setting conditions for an assault on Siversk and northwestern Ukrainian GLOCs to Lysychansk.

Russian forces are likely conducting a limited offensive directly northeast of Kharkiv City in a likely attempt to push Ukrainian forces out of artillery range of Russian rear areas and secured some successes.

Russian and Ukrainian forces are engaging in ongoing fighting for Davydiv Brid in northwestern Kherson Oblast.

Russian occupation authorities likely staged terrorist activity in Melitopol and Berdyansk for Russia Day on June 12. ❗️ ISW explained In the occupied cities the bombings were set up by the Russian authorities to thus accuse Ukrainian partisans of attacking civilians.

+++

The Kyiv Independent, [14/06/2022 01:38]
⚡️ Ukraine files over 700 cases of collaboration, treason since start of war.
Around 400 of the criminal cases filed have been transferred to other law enforcement agencies, Ukrinform news agency reports, citing First Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs Yevhen Yenin. The highest number of suspected collaborators are reportedly from Luhansk and Kyiv oblasts, 162 and 155 cases, respectively.

⚡️ Ukraine’s military: Ukrainian, Russian forces engage in ‘air battle’ in southern Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Operational Command “South” said on June 14 that Russian forces attacked Ukrainian positions via helicopter in Mykolaiv and Kherson oblasts, but Ukrainian forces managed to repel Russian attacks.

⚡️ Reuters: Wikipedia appeals against Russian order to remove information about war.

⚡️Scholz promises more weapons for Ukraine.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Berlin intends to expand its military aid to Ukraine and supply additional weapons. “In this critical phase we are considerably expanding our support: we will supply Ukraine with a state-of-the-art anti-aircraft system and an artillery detection radar, among other things,” Scholz told reporters in Berlin on June 13. [oh aye, that so? you're promising 'a' anti-aircraft system and 'a' radar - one of each?]

⚡️UK Defense Ministry: Russia to increase defense spending, may still struggle to replenish weapons.
While Russian government funding is allowing the military industrial sector to meet demands placed on it by the war in Ukraine, the industry may struggle to keep up, partially due to sanctions and lack of expertise, the U.K. Defense Ministry said in its latest intelligence update. The update also cited a June 10 statement by a Russian official predicting that Russia’s defense spending could reach a 20% increase in Russia’s defense budget.

⚡️General Staff: Russia continues storming Sievierodonetsk. [From other sources, the Ru forces have occupied Sievierodonetsk, apart from the heights]

+++

UkraineNOW:

⚡️Explosions reported in occupied Kherson.
According to Suspilne news reporters, explosions were heard in the occupied city of Kherson on June 14.

📍 The White House: U.S. President Joe Biden has officially announced that he is extending sanctions against Belarus for a year.

🇺🇸 The White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre: "We hope that this war will end in negotiations, but we do not see that coming from the Kremlin right now”
The Press Secretary stressed that the United States will try to ensure the strongest possible position for Ukraine to be ready for negotiations when the time comes.

⚡️ The European Union is disconnecting Russia's largest bank, Sberbank, as well as Russian Agricultural Bank and Credit Bank of Moscow, from the SWIFT interbank system as part of the sixth sanctions package against Russia for its aggression against Ukraine.

Flash
@Flash43191300
·
3h
⚡️Today, sanctions hit three major Russian banks - Sberbank, Rosselkhozbank and Moscow Credit Bank.

They will be from the SWIFT system.

Flash
@Flash43191300
·
1h
⚡️Steel prices in Russia fell by 40% amid weaker demand and a stronger ruble against the dollar. Metallurgists expect serious losses and low capacity utilization in the summer.

The representative of «Severstal»
said that the situation is extremely tense.

Flash
@Flash43191300
·
1h
⚡️The European Union sees no threat to its food security due to the war in Ukraine — EU Commissioner for Agriculture Janusz Wojciechowski.

At first it was said it would take too long to train Ukraine on Western weapons. But we seem to have got over that. Point well taken that it takes a village, not just cannon operators, to move equipment 600 miles and keep them functioning and stocked. So let's start training those engineers. We have got to start somewhere. Ukraine needs help on weapons now fast, if not help soon. Anything. If this war is now going to grind on for years, then Ukraine has time which will be paid in blood

@notimagain gain · Today 09:14
Reuters: Wikipedia appeals against Russian order to remove information about war.

How interesting given @MagicFox · Today 07:01 the podcast posted about resisting misinformation:
”Western governments need to support ways for Russian citizens to access information that already exists. Let them use Wikipedia.”

Thank you @notimagain for your answers
and @Ijsbear bear · Today 09:59 for your takeaways

But we seem to have got over that. Point well taken that it takes a village, not just cannon operators, to move equipment 600 miles and keep them functioning and stocked. So let's start training those engineers. We have got to start somewhere.

But all this has started......I'm afraid the problem is that depending on the trade and the specific system ("kit") it takes a long time to train engineers up to even a basic standard where they can keep the equipment running out in the field on operations. Even on a abbreviated course it might take months to get somebody up to the point where they are worth deploying as say an engineer on something like Caesar.

Send them out undertrained and they'd probably at best be as much use as a chocolate fireguard and possibly a danger to themselves and the rest of the team. Same applies for tanks, aircraft, missile systems etc etc

I know I've grumbled about this before but I'm going to do it again:

Sadly it's been a bit fashionable in some quarters to think "war" was simple, something only thick kids did and have underestimated how complex it can be. Most people don't realise the training that troops operating at even quite a basic technical level need in order to be able to perform effectively.

That's great.

Informative article from the BBC on the implications:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60521822

These are apparently just the latest 3 Russian banks to be disconnected from SWIFT. In March, 7 Russian banks were removed from Swift including Bank Otkritie, Novikombank, Promsvyazbank, Bank Rossiya, Sovcombank, VEB and VTB Bank.

Sberbank is Russia's biggest lender, which accounts for more than a third of Russia's banking sector.

"The aim is for Russian companies to lose access to the normal smooth and instant transactions provided by Swift, disrupting payments for its valuable energy and agricultural exports.

Banks now have to deal directly with one another, adding delays and extra costs, and ultimately cutting off revenues for the Russian government.

Russia was threatened with a Swift expulsion before - in 2014 when it annexed Crimea. Russia said the move would be tantamount to a declaration of war.

Western allies did not go ahead, but the threat did prompt Russia to develop its own, very fledgling, cross-border transfer system called the System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS) as an alternative to Swift.

Few foreign countries currently use SPFS, but India is reportedly considering a Russian proposal to use it for payments in roubles.

Separately, Moscow is working with Beijing to connect to China's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) - another alternative to Swift which processes payments in Chinese yuan.
Swift logo

Why was the West divided over Swift?

Some nations - such as Germany, France and Italy - were initially reluctant to take action against Russia's use of Swift.

There were concerns that companies owed money by Russia would have to find alternative ways to get paid.

There were also fears it could impact the global banking system, although there is no evidence of this yet.

Alexei Kudrin, Russia's former finance minister, has suggested being cut off from Swift could shrink Russia's economy by 5%.

However, there are doubts about the lasting impact on Russia's economy, particularly if banks find sustainable ways to reroute payments via countries that have not imposed sanctions."

@notimagain Sadly it's been a bit fashionable in some quarters to think "war" was simple, something only thick kids did and have underestimated how complex it can be. Most people don't realise the training that troops operating at even quite a basic technical level need in order to be able to perform effectively.

I suspect many people's idea of war (mine included) is still stuck in WW2, which even then must have been complex but now many multiples of complexity with all the technology that comes with new kit and permutations and variations that exist out there. My appreciation of how much skill and training it takes to organise, co-ordinate, feed, arm and move an army has been greatly enhanced by this thread and contributors like you.

On a parallel note, in my own world (corporate), I do get slightly when I hire an inexperienced team member and people think that that person is ready to go after 2 weeks of training. Erm no, even after a year, they are still considered very junior ... not ready to be let loose completely ...

How much more so in the battlefield under stressful and unpredictable, often life and death conditions, dealing with tricky equipment, kit and people.

Yes good points made by @notimagain and @blueshoes . I have heard that new, inexperienced soldiers (there are many) are even struggling with using radios safely and now they are only issuing closed circuit radios (where they can) to reduce the risks.

Eurgh. Navalny has "disappeared" from prison

Link to his spokesperson's Twitter account: twitter.com/kira_yarmysh/status/1536668006671073282?s=21&t=s4pgGT5Vy6X2AUwY5bxqLA

Tim White
@TWMCLtd
·
9m
⚡️Breaking⚡️

Reports coming in that the traitor "Head" of occupied #Kherson is fighting for his life after a sabotage attack in the southern #Ukraine city.

Volodymyr Saldo's car has been blown up according to
this source, but no confirmation yet.

---

people have to be more careful on Social Media.

Someone posted where some of the US arms and vehicles were resting on their way to the front and the Russians located the place and blew them up :/

Argh, no. He is such a high profile political prisoner. Hopefully he turns up again (and was just being moved to a no doubt even more uncomfortable prison).

people have to be more careful on Social Media.
Someone posted where some of the US arms and vehicles were resting on their way to the front and the Russians located the place and blew them up :/

It was only a matter of time, I know the Ukrainians have been using SM to great effect generally but it's use can be as risky as hell...If that story is verified then somebody needs tracking down and they need asking, maybe not very politely or gently, whether the promulgation of the images/info was done accidently, deliberately accidently or done with malice.

Some keen amateurs (some with perhaps previous experience of looking at imagery when working as professionals) were certainly performing some quite spectacular geolocating of events and equipment early on in the conflict just by using Ukrainian and/or Russian footage that was out on SM and Google Earth.

Kwasi Kwanteng AT kwasikwanteng
In May, I asked National Grid to explore keeping 3 coal power stations open this winter, if needed.

With uncertainty in Europe following the invasion, it's right we explore all options to bolster supply.

I'm pleased EDF has today confirmed West Burton will remain online.

Discussions with two other plants are ongoing.

If we have available back-up power, let's keep it online just in case. I'm not taking chances.

For our long-term energy security, we're accelerating renewables and nuclear - while maximising North Sea oil and gas production.

I thought that the oil and gas in the Scottish sector of the North Sea had run out?

At least, that's what the independence supporters get told when the Unionists say Scotland can't afford to be independent

(....not that I think that independence should rely on oil and gas alone )