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Ukraine Invasion: Part 27

990 replies

MagicFox · 03/06/2022 13:48

27th thread, thanks for the continued company and analysis all

OP posts:
Thread gallery
52
prettybird · 14/06/2022 21:45

@whenwillwegetthereholly - I looked for the source of that quote, which I found as part of this report: https://www.inew.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/collateral-the-human-cost-of-explosive-violence-in-ukraine-web.pdff*

Having read it (it's mostly photos), it's very careful to be neutral about the causes of the need for humanitarian aid as a result of the conflict and all the explosions/ordnance involved. It most definitely doesn't say that it is shelling by Ukraine against the civilians in the autonomist areas. It just says that there is shelling of civilian areas (and the impact on civilians Sad) - not who is doing it Confused

LoveLarry · 14/06/2022 21:49

ScrollingLeaves · 14/06/2022 21:17

@LoveLarry · Today 19:15
The disinformation has really ramped up today.

They are really pushing the info that Ukraine is numbing and shelling civilians

Remind me of the numbers of how Ukraine is out gunned and out manned? I have forgotten the massive decrepancy.

Given this and the fact that shelling goes on more or less all the time, you’d think they’d work out who is the most likely to be causing the most destruction.

Plus Russia is using cluster bombs and shells with little precision.

You'd think, eh?

Twitter is even more vile than isual

The worst are the diplomatic and ambassadorial posts

All liked and responded to by Indian and African posters who are so fucking gleeful about Ukrainians dying. And bitcoin

And the GB news, anti vac, George Galloway loving people

I want to cry at the venom

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 14/06/2022 21:51

Ukraine Now (Telegram news channel) are reporting that Ukrainian Special Services have issued a warning that Russia will be releasing fake news about the Mariupol defenders.

TheABC · 14/06/2022 22:11

Ijsbear · 14/06/2022 15:56

⚡️ Chinese leader Xi Jinping signed a directive stating that China's armed forces can be used for "non-military" purposes

Radio Free Asia notes that this may indicate preparations for an invasion of Taiwan under the guise of a "special operation."

The rumblings from that direction are worrying me.

Rumour has it that some of the rural state banks are struggling and they have frozen their customer's accounts to prevent a run happening. The Chinese authorities are desperate to prevent confidence eroding - especially after shocks to the economy from Shanghai being closed and the Evergrande problems. There's been muted online protests about the suffering the COVID lockdowns have caused - a lot of people died in the last one because they could not get timely medical treatment (e.g. asthma attacks or heart failure).

If so, this directive could have been signed as a precaution for internal measures, rather than external ones.

OwlsDance · 14/06/2022 22:18

whenwillwegetthereholly · 14/06/2022 21:16

@owlsdance I posted that too soon. Are you saying that you think that that is incorrect info or propaganda?

I mean it's always been part of Russian propaganda. Crazy Nazi Ukrainians shooting at their own people.

The exact thing has happened in Georgia - Russia manufactured an issue and then rode in on their white horse in shining armour and saved the poor oppressed people. Same scene, different decorations.

whenwillwegetthereholly · 14/06/2022 22:33

ScrollingLeaves · 14/06/2022 21:35

@whenwillwegetthereholly · Today 17:06

Thank you for taking the time to respond to that discussion from a few days ago. Things move on so fast I had forgotten.

I do think that even if NATO is grist to the mill for Putin’s anger, with the ‘Nazi’ thrown in for more catalyst to draw the public with him, really it is much more that Putin wants back what was lost with the end of the Soviet Union, and the consolidation of a Soviet world.

Here he is on Russia Day giving voice to his Imperial mood. This has an English translation.

fwww.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/06/14/russia-putin-new-propaganda-ukraine-pleitgen-lead-dnt-intl-hnk-vpx.cnn

I was only commenting on the article which you linked, not on what has happened since, and I think you have misread the article as I said. If you read the last couple of pages it was about modern day issues. Not anything about imperialism. It ends with saying "And what Ukraine will be – it is up to its citizens to decide" As I say, I was commenting only on the contents of the article.

In relation to the CNN video, I watched a report yesterday which gave a different translation and ("when Peter the Great founded the new capital no european country nobody recognised it as Russia, everyone recognised it as Sweden. The same goes for the western direction of his early campaign". [And then something about the battle of Narva (WWII) which was to do with redeeming and reinforcing.]) but I haven't seen a transcript and I don't know what the context was. The talk itself was in the main to do with commercial opportunities within Russia post sanctions given to young entrepreneurs I thought. If a full transcript has been released, I would be interested to see it.

blueshoes · 14/06/2022 22:48

TheABC · 14/06/2022 22:11

Rumour has it that some of the rural state banks are struggling and they have frozen their customer's accounts to prevent a run happening. The Chinese authorities are desperate to prevent confidence eroding - especially after shocks to the economy from Shanghai being closed and the Evergrande problems. There's been muted online protests about the suffering the COVID lockdowns have caused - a lot of people died in the last one because they could not get timely medical treatment (e.g. asthma attacks or heart failure).

If so, this directive could have been signed as a precaution for internal measures, rather than external ones.

It is good that China is preoccupied with internal issues. Long may that continue. Though I hope China does not decide to start a war to distract its local populace from deeper issues. That would be out of the Russian playbook and so far (touch wood), not China's, I think.

minsmum · 14/06/2022 23:19

Sanctions starting to bite in Russia Times article

ScrollingLeaves · 15/06/2022 01:13

@whenwillwegetthereholly tthereholly · Yesterday 22:33
I was only commenting on the article which you linked, not on what has happened since, and I think you have misread the article as I said. If you read the last couple of pages it was about modern day issues. Not anything about imperialism. It ends with saying "And what Ukraine will be – it is up to its citizens to decide" As I say, I was commenting only on the contents of the article.

Thank you for explaining that. I might well have read it too superficially and will look again.

In relation to the CNN video, I watched a report yesterday which gave a different translation and ("when Peter the Great founded the new capital no european country nobody recognised it as Russia, everyone recognised it as Sweden. The same goes for the western direction of his early campaign". [And then something about the battle of Narva (WWII) which was to do with redeeming and reinforcing.]) but I haven't seen a transcript and I don't know what the context was. The talk itself was in the main to do with commercial opportunities within Russia post sanctions given to young entrepreneurs I thought. If a full transcript has been released, I would be interested to see it.

How worrying that it gave a different translation. It is difficult to know what to trust, and I should think that US one was the less reliable. Thank you for telling me.

herecomesthsun · 15/06/2022 06:57

Reuters - these look slightly different?

www.reuters.com/video/watch/idRCV00B054

from the Torygraph

"Ukraine is offering souvenirs made from destroyed Russian jets to Britons who donate more than £800, with the first auction set to secure bidders a keyring made out of Ka-52 “Havoc” helicopters.

As Kyiv continues to urge Western powers to provide heavy weaponry, online crowdfunding websites are doing their part in the war effort by raising money to purchase drones, medical supplies and flak jackets for soldiers.

On offer are fragments of Russian military hardware that has been destroyed by Ukrainian soldiers since the full-scale invasion started on Feb 24.

The Serhiy Prytula Charity Foundation is due to open online bidding for the souvenirs on Tuesday, and expects they will sell out in a matter of hours due to extremely high demand.

Anna Gvozdiar, the head of the foundation, said each piece of a Russian jet or helicopter debris could provide around 30-40 souvenirs, such as keyrings made from the plane’s fuselage."

Ijsbear · 15/06/2022 12:24

The exact thing has happened in Georgia - Russia manufactured an issue and then rode in on their white horse in shining armour and saved the poor oppressed people. Same scene, different decorations.

And Chechnya.

ISW Key Takeaways

Russian military authorities are pursuing options to increase the available pool of eligible recruits to account for continued personnel losses in Ukraine.

Russian forces are continuing to fight for control of the Azot industrial plant and have destroyed all bridges between Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, likely to isolate the remaining Ukrainian defenders within the city from critical lines of communication.

Russian forces continue to prepare for offensive operations southeast of Izyum and west of Lyman toward Slovyansk.

Russian forces are continuing offensive operations to the east of Bakhmut near the T1302 highway to cut Ukrainian lines of communication to Severodonetsk-Lysychansk.

Russian forces continued offensive operations to push Ukrainian troops away from frontlines northeast of Kharkiv City.

Ukrainian counterattacks have forced Russian troops on the Southern Axis to take up and strengthen defensive positions.

+++

📌 The United States considers reliable information about the daily losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, voiced by representatives of the Ukrainian authorities, – US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin at a press conference

⚡️The Contact Group on Ukraine will discuss the supply of heavy weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine on June 15 in Brussels – NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, Associated Press reports.

📌 Putin still wants to take over most of Ukraine but will not be able to achieve his goals — Pentagon — Reuters citing the U.S. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl.

❗️ Ukrainian military is holding back the Russians from three directions at once to prevent them from advancing to Lysychansk – the Head of Luhansk Regional Military Administration Serhii Haidai.

📣 The West admits three scenarios for the further development of Russia's war against Ukraine — CNN. The first possible scenario is that Russia can gradually seize more and more territory in Luhansk and Donetsk regions. The second scenario is if neither side can advance, and the war drags on in a positional phase for months or even years, with heavy losses for both sides and consequences for the world economy. The third scenario, considered least likely, is that Russia will adjust its objectives, will claim to have achieved what it set out to do and try to prepare the ground for the end of hostilities.

[ unfortunatley I note that it does not consider a 4th option - Ukraine pushing Russia back to its own bloody borders ]

⚡️ "Ramstein-3": Defence officials from around 50 countries will meet today at NATO Headquarters in support of Ukraine — Ambassador Julianne Smith, the U.S. Permanent Representative to NATO. The participants of the meeting will discuss what additional military assistance they can provide to Ukraine in the short and medium-term as well as in the future, to help it secure victory in the war.

❌ High-ranking Russian colonel-propagandist Sergei Postnov was eliminated in Ukraine

🎞 The key foreign policy issue of June for Ukraine is whether our country will receive the status of a candidate for EU membership. This issue will be considered in the second half of June by the European Commission and the European Council. And a positive decision will require the consent of all countries of the European Union.

❌ Improvised cemeteries are growing in Mariupol because burials according to Russian rules are too expensive

⚡️ Jens Stoltenberg said that NATO is preparing a plan on how to transfer Ukraine to the Alliance arms. He added that NATO defence ministers are expected to announce new military assistance for Ukraine tonight. This package will include heavy weapons and long-range artillery.

📌 Olaf Scholz rejected the idea of complete nationalization of Gazprom Germania, the former German division of Gazprom. He is concerned that such a decision "could irritate Putin" and lead to a halt to Russian gas supplies. [christ cant someone send the fuckwit to Mariupol to live permanently and put someone useful in place?]

‼️ Dmitry Medvedev questioned the future existence of Ukraine, against which Russia is at war. "I saw some information that Ukraine wants to receive LNG (liquefied natural gas) from its overseas masters under the Lend-Lease Treaty with payment for supplies in two years. Otherwise, it will simply freeze to death this winter. Just a question. Who said that in two years Ukraine will exist at all on the world map?" he wrote.

+++

The Kyiv Independent, [15/06/2022 00:57]
⚡️Nearly two-thirds of Ukrainian children have been internally displaced or fled the country. Afshan Khan, UNICEF’s Regional Director for Europe and Central Asia, speaking in New York, said: “The numbers are staggering. Almost two thirds of Ukrainian children are displaced either internally or across the border as refugees.”

Institute for the Study of War: Russia might pursue options to loosen military recruitment restrictions as eligible pool dwindles. The U.S. think tank quoted a Russian military blogger who suggested that Russian authorities are preparing to increase the age limit to serve in tank and motorized infantry units from 40 to 49 and to drop the requirement for past military service. The institute said if true, this shift demonstrates the Kremlin’s increasing desperation for recruits to fill frontline units, regardless of their skills.

⚡️Bloomberg: Russia may be few months from having to slow operations for major regroup. After having used up much of its military capacity in the first months of its full-scale war, Russia is searching across the country for manpower and weapons, including old tanks from the Far East, Bloomberg reported, citing unnamed senior European officials. Russia may also be forced to announce a mass mobilization to continue its fight, the officials said.

⚡️Media: Locals report explosion near market in Russian-occupied Chornobaivka, Kherson Oblast. Local Suspilne news reporters in Kherson said there are dead and injured but the exact number has yet to be confirmed. [There have been warnings that the Russians are going in for false flag actions for a day or two]

Ukraine Invasion: Part 27
Ukraine Invasion: Part 27
Ijsbear · 15/06/2022 13:11

ISW's view is that belorus is ' unlikely' to join the ground war.

blueshoes · 15/06/2022 13:45

@Ijsbear thanks for the takeaways

The West admits three scenarios for the further development of Russia's war against Ukraine — CNN. The first possible scenario is that Russia can gradually seize more and more territory in Luhansk and Donetsk regions. The second scenario is if neither side can advance, and the war drags on in a positional phase for months or even years, with heavy losses for both sides and consequences for the world economy. The third scenario, considered least likely, is that Russia will adjust its objectives, will claim to have achieved what it set out to do and try to prepare the ground for the end of hostilities.

[ unfortunatley I note that it does not consider a 4th option - Ukraine pushing Russia back to its own bloody borders ]

I wonder who 'The West' as mentioned in this snippet is. Is this an authoritative source, like Lloyd Austin?

I had a good chuckle about your comment on sending the turncoat Schloz to Mariupol to live permanently. Will be nice if his mate Pu could join him.

The Kyiv Independent, [15/06/2022 00:57]
⚡️Nearly two-thirds of Ukrainian children have been internally displaced or fled the country. Afshan Khan, UNICEF’s Regional Director for Europe and Central Asia, speaking in New York, said: “The numbers are staggering. Almost two thirds of Ukrainian children are displaced either internally or across the border as refugees.”

Poor things. The children are Ukraine's future, many of them experiencing trauma through witnessing the death of loved ones and just unspeakable horrors. Even those who are just displaced will be vulnerable. A generation of traumatized people.

ScrollingLeaves · 15/06/2022 14:05

Thank you @Ijsbear for collating this news.

The first possible scenario is that Russia can gradually seize more and more territory in Luhansk and Donetsk regions. The second scenario is if neither side can advance, and the war drags on in a positional phase for months or even years, with heavy losses for both sides and consequences for the world economy

Even if Russia succeeds in the first, the second option might follow anyway if Ukraine has to try to stop Russia gaining even more territory.

blueshoes · 15/06/2022 14:06

For logistics geeks. Trent Telenko is quoted.

Fascinating read if you can access the whole article behind the paywall. If not, extracts are below:

www.wsj.com/articles/the-19th-century-technology-driving-russias-latest-gains-in-ukraine-railroads-11655218602

The 19th-Century Technology Driving Russia’s Latest Gains in Ukraine: Railroads
June 14, 2022
After struggling to supply troops early in the war, Moscow has returned to Soviet-era shipping methods. That could limit its reach going forward.

...

Trains are the Russian military’s go-to method for moving troops and heavy weapons. In Ukraine’s industrialized Donbas region, dense rail networks have played to Moscow’s advantage.

Russia’s military depends so heavily on trains that it maintains an elite Railroad Force, a service branch once common in countries through World War II. The unit has camouflage-painted armored train cars equipped with antiaircraft cannons and artillery to guard supply trains, and its troops are trained to repair bombed tracks while under enemy fire. Russia’s Defense Ministry said it has restored 750 miles of track in the land corridor it now controls in Ukraine’s southeast.

“Even if Ukrainians destroy rail lines, it will just slow the Russians, not stop them,” said Alex Vershinin, a retired U.S. Army lieutenant colonel who has analyzed Russian military logistics.

But Russia’s heavy reliance on train transport, a 19th-century technology, reveals critical gaps in its logistics, the coordinated transfer of supplies. Russia’s struggle to supply troops away from rail lines has slowed its invasion and contributed to catastrophic failures in its early offensives to take Kyiv and Kharkiv. It could also shape the conflict going forward.

Unlike the U.S. and other countries that have adopted modern military logistics, Russia has largely remained wedded to traditional Soviet-era methods. It isn’t just a sign of the military’s failure, according to Western officials. The shortfall results from a lack of modernization in Russia’s economy.

Russia boasts one of the world’s largest military forces, equipped with nuclear submarines and intercontinental ballistic missiles, but it has few shipping containers, forklifts or pallets of the kind the U.S. is using to speed supplies into Ukraine, according to logistics experts.

Instead of the heavily mechanized logistics system used for decades by Western businesses and militaries, Russia’s military relies on bountiful conscript labor to move gear, much of it packed in unwieldy coffin-size wooden crates.

“The U.S. has built logistics like we are short of people, and Russia has done it like manpower is free,” said Trent Telenko, who spent 33 years at the Pentagon’s Defense Contract Management Agency and has studied Russian military logistics.

...

Russians load cargo manually into railway vehicles that travel its national rail system, which forms the backbone of the country’s freight network. Railways reach deep into sparsely populated corners of Siberia, with many lines built by Gulag slave labor under Stalin. The U.S.S.R. used train tracks with a wider gauge than Western Europe, in part to thwart invasion. In recent years, that disparity has slowed rail commerce with other countries, further isolating Russia’s logistics industry.

Ukraine, once part of the U.S.S.R., has the same wide-gauge tracks, making it easy for Russian trains to roll in during the invasion.

...

Russia’s lack of civilian trucks is mirrored in its military, which has long faced vehicle shortages. Western intelligence analysts during the Cold War could judge Soviet battle readiness by seeing if army trucks were deployed to help farms collect the harvest rather than move troops.

...

Efficiency and worker safety, goals of for-profit logistics operations in the West, haven’t been a priority for Moscow’s quartermasters.

Russia’s wooden crates, which can weigh more than 100 pounds when full, are similar to ones the U.S. used in the 1940s. “They’d get everyone who wasn’t an officer and make them lug things” into trucks, said Georgy, a Russian conscripted into a logistical support brigade in 2016 and who asked to be identified by only one name.

He recalled seemingly endless work cradling the splintery containers or grabbing them by small metal handles that dug into his fingers. The painful work was accepted as character-building, Georgy said.

...

A wartime study found that the man-hours required to load and unload supply ships could be cut to 203 from 682 by using forklift-and-pallet systems.
“What saved them was bringing in industry,” Mr. Irwin said. The forklift was deemed so significant to the U.S. military, he said, that literature about its various wartime uses and methods was classified as secret.

The Russian economy under President Vladimir Putin has advanced beyond Soviet-era practices. But investment has focused largely on extractive resource sectors, like petroleum and minerals, rather than advanced manufacturing and logistics.

The easing of economic restrictions in post-Soviet Russia allowed it to obtain more-advanced technology, superior production equipment and to hire experienced foreign managers. But that also increased Russia’s reliance on outsiders to build its industrial base.

Specialized roles in industry, such as supply chain supervisor, had only begun taking root in Russian businesses in 2014, when ties with the West were frayed over Moscow’s seizure of Crimea from Ukraine. Sanctions recently imposed after the invasion of Ukraine are expected to set back Russia’s logistics even further.

Without domestic logistics expertise, Russia’s military lacks a model to challenge its resistance to change, which is typical of armed forces, analysts said.

Private-sector know-how rescued the Pentagon in 1965, when Washington ratcheted up the number of troops in Vietnam. Supplies piled up on the shores of the embattled country, and ships were waiting weeks to unload.

...

“A lot of people in the military were opposed to containers in Vietnam, taking a not-invented-here attitude,” said Marc Levinson, author of “The Box,” a history of the shipping container. “In pretty short order, containers solved the military’s problems. It really transformed the ability to fight the war.”

The use of containers by the military quickly catapulted demand among civilian-cargo movers, Mr. Levinson said.

Early this year, before Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion, a steady flow of U.S. cargo planes landed at Kyiv’s Boryspil Airport. Mechanized loaders moved pallets of Javelin antitank rockets, artillery shells and ammunition to forklifts, which hoisted them onto military trucks destined for bases across Ukraine. The speedy deliveries helped Ukrainians repel Russian forces from the capital of Kyiv.

The U.S. military’s commitment to logistics automation is embodied in the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System that President Biden recently promised to Ukraine. The 5-ton truck has robotic arms that load prepackaged rockets ready for launching and can be operated by a single soldier. Comparable Russian systems must be loaded and prepared manually by a team.

Mr. Telenko, who followed the development of such automated systems over the years, said the contrast between the two countries reflects how their respective societies approach risk. In the U.S., public accountability and the prospect of litigation prompted the military to reduce as much human fallibility in logistics as possible.

“There’s a cultural aversion to risk built into the American military supply chain that Russia doesn’t have,” Mr. Telenko said. Increased safety and efficiency have the added benefit for the Pentagon of reducing payouts in veterans’ benefits, a large expense, and leaving more money for operations, training and equipment.
“A military can’t be better than the social system it grows out of,” he said.

Igotjelly · 15/06/2022 15:03

The mood music coming out of today’s China/Russia talks seems to be very friendly unfortunately. Speaking of relations being at an unprecedented high and agreement towards closer economic collaboration due to the West’s “illegal” sanctions. Some discussion too on military cooperation but no detail given in either read out.

Ijsbear · 15/06/2022 16:11

Feet firmly on the ground here, but there are rumours that Putin is in a coma following surgery.

This is unconfirmed

Ijsbear · 15/06/2022 16:13

Flash
@Flash43191300
·
2h
⚡️Russia does not renounce relations with the West and intends to support it in the future, - Peskov said.

According to him, the condition for dialogue with Europe and the United States will be mutual respect and benefit.

[I wonder if this is a coincidence]

Igotjelly · 15/06/2022 16:16

Ijsbear · 15/06/2022 16:11

Feet firmly on the ground here, but there are rumours that Putin is in a coma following surgery.

This is unconfirmed

Well if he is he did well to speak to Xi….

Ijsbear · 15/06/2022 16:18

Oh damn, probably bullshit then :(

OwlsDance · 15/06/2022 17:44

Russian "International" economic Forum is starting today in St Petersburg. We'll know if he's not there.

OwlsDance · 15/06/2022 19:14

Another Gazprom turbine shut for maintenance. Germany is blaming Russia that it's political. Gaz volume down from 167mln cubic metres per day to 67.

blueshoes · 15/06/2022 19:56

OwlsDance · 15/06/2022 19:14

Another Gazprom turbine shut for maintenance. Germany is blaming Russia that it's political. Gaz volume down from 167mln cubic metres per day to 67.

Could be that Russia ran out of spare parts to maintain that turbine and don't want to admit it so making it seem like a deliberate act all along.

Either way, ya boo sucks.

OwlsDance · 15/06/2022 20:03

Russia is adamant it's purely technical. I tend to believe it because to admit that sanctions are actually hurting you is quite humiliating.

But OTOH they said they had to switch it off due to maintenance, but Germany said there was no planned maintenance until autumn. So it could be a reaction to a new deal for LNG from Israel/Egypt. Except before that they were quite vocal with blackmailing, but maybe they're being more stealthy to get some sanctions lifted?

ScrollingLeaves · 15/06/2022 20:07

@blueshoes Today 14:06

Thank you for that post about logistics in transporting the materials of war and the difference in efficiency between the modern

US vs Soviet Russian ones.

it does seem though that the railways might well be ideal and functioning well for the Russians in the Donbas region alas.

Yesterday someone was mentioning Russian propaganda and disinformation being rife. I was worried to see there is a huge amount in Italy. Apparently only 30% Italians want to help Ukraine.
www.politico.eu/article/infowars-russia-vladimir-putin-propaganda-permeates-italy-media/

financenews.upexampaper.com/italys-media-is-being-roiled-by-rows-over-russian-propaganda-more-finance-news/