Ukraine Invasion: Part 27

[MagicFox]

27th thread, thanks for the continued company and analysis all

mobile.twitter.com/mhmck/status/1535992454851305477 Military vehicles destroyed in Russia

mobile.twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1536060095737516032 Russia more free than the west

ISW Key Takeaways

Russian forces continued ground assaults in Severodonetsk and blew up bridges that connect Severodonetsk to Lysychansk across the Siverskyi Donets River in a likely attempt to cut Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) that run from Bakhmut to Lysychansk and Severodonetsk.

Russian forces made incremental gains to the southeast of Izyum and will likely continue attempts to advance on Slovyansk from the northwest.

Russian forces continued efforts to push Ukrainian troops back from contested frontlines northeast of Kharkiv City.

Russian forces focused on maintaining defensive lines along the Southern Axis.

+++

⚡️Ukrainian army chief asks US for more 155 mm artillery ASAP.

The Kyiv Independent, [12/06/2022 23:58]
⚡️Ambassador asks Germany why it refuses to ship armored vehicles.

“Why are you refusing the Ukrainian army these Marder infantry fighting vehicles, available immediately from Rheinmetall, while Ukraine is bleeding dry in the Donbas before your eyes?” Andriy Melnyk, Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany, tweeted. German arms producer Rheinmetall said on June 12 that the first Marder vehicles are ready but it is up to the German government to decide whether to ship them to Ukraine. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been accused of blocking arms supplies to Ukraine, and not a single heavy weapon has been supplied by Germany so far.

⚡️ Luhansk Oblast Governor: Around 500 civilians remain at Azot plant in Sievierodonetsk. [deja vu in the worst way]

The Kyiv Independent, [13/06/2022 01:41]
⚡️ Many bodies of those killed at Azovstal remain in Mariupol.
Maksym Zhorin, a former commander of Ukraine’s Azov National Guard regiment, said on June 12 that 220 of those killed at the steel plant have been sent to Kyiv, but “just as many bodies” are awaiting retrieval. Zhorin said talks are underway to facilitate further exchanges but, because many of the bodies are in a bad state, it will “take a very long time to identify each person.”

⚡️ Lithuania buys additional 4 drones for Ukraine.

⚡️ Luhansk Oblast Governor: Police identify 50 potential collaborators in Lysychansk.

⚡️ Amnesty International: Russia conducts ‘indiscriminate attacks’ on Kharkiv.
A report published by the NGO on June 13 details the use of missiles and widely banned cluster munitions by Russia in Kharkiv, resulting in mass destruction and civilian death

⚡️ SIPRI: Global nuclear arsenal to expand for first time since Cold War.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Russia’s war and Western support for Ukraine have increased the risk of nuclear arms use and proliferation. [no shit, Sherlock]

⚡️ Ukraine’s military: Russian troops storm Sievierodonetsk, force Ukrainian troops from city center. [grim news]

+++

UkraineNOW

Svetlana Alexievich, a Belarusian writer, dedicated the Award for freedom of speech to Ukrainian writers

🇺🇦 Today, in the temporarily occupied Kherson, the Ukrainian anthem was played through portable speakers put in different places and at bus stops.

📣 Ukraine is ready to transfer its weapons to NATO standards in a month
The Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov states that the Ukrainian military has mastered artillery delivered from Western countries in just two weeks, and Ukraine itself is ready to convert its weapons to NATO standards within a month.

📍Russian invaders recaptured part of the occupied territories in the north of the Kharkiv region, according to the General Staff

News from Severodonetsk overnight looks bleak.

The bridges have been blown by the Russians. Ukrainians admitting they have been pushed out the city centre.

www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/06/13/russia-strikes-depot-in-west-ukraine-battle-for-severodonetsk-rages-a77981

Little mroe info than the headline, no details ofc, but bad news.

www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/06/12/russian-anti-torture-ngo-disbands-after-foreign-label-a77979
The head of the Russian Committee for the Prevention of Torture said Sunday he had disbanded the organisation after it was branded a "foreign agent" by authorities, a label he called an "insult".

The Committee for the Prevention of Torture, founded in 2000, campaigns to compel authorities to investigate mistreatment by security forces and take steps to stop it. Its work has included the situation in Chechnya.

Already branded a "foreign agent" in 2015 and again in 2016, the organisation decided to dissolve itself before reforming to try to shake off the designation.

The label "foreign agent", reminiscent of the Soviet-era "enemy of the people", is used heavily against organisations, the political opposition and journalists accused of carrying out foreign-funded political activities.

www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/06/10/explainer-what-does-russias-zero-inflation-mean-a77952

(0 inflation can mean that demand has stalled, which means possibly a looming recession apparently.
Getting accurate information will be impossible though, probably even for the Russian govt statisticians and economists.)

This site is excellent btw, if I haven't plugged it already

wartranslated.com/

It really seems genuine, unlike the much more controversial Canadian soldier in Ukraine, though he does now and then get unexpectedly accurate info early.

Great thread: @d_jaishankar

"I spent the last week attending several international conferences (all Chatham House Rule) in Washington DC, meeting over 100 people from >30 countries.

A few takeaways on: (1) Russia-Ukraine, (2) the global economy, (3) China, (4) U.S. power, (5) emerging tech"

https://twitter.com/djaishankar/status/1536151775446720514?s=21&t=SDD_hjSMrLckYy91AcjHtXg

This is interesting and mirrors what I've seen/heard elsewhere. I always think the references given to the Ukraine/Russia war are interesting in their minimalism. Its very much seen as an (important) spec in a much wider geopolitical picture.

ljsbear, thanks for the link to this site. I have bookmarked it.

I have been concerned about the strain Ukraine has come under in Severdonetsk. Losing 200-300 men a day is devastating. The headline about the strike by Russia on a depot in West Ukraine is sobering, especially when Ukraine has been crying out for weapons and artillery.

Praying for a breakthrough by Ukraine.

@Ijsbear · Today 08:32
This site is excellent btw, if I haven't plugged it already

wartranslated.com/

It really seems genuine, unlike the much more controversial Canadian soldier in Ukraine, though he does now and then get unexpectedly accurate info early.

You did post it once before, and I am glad you have again. It is very interesting.

Last time I read a report by Igor Girkin (Russian) writing about the situation and criticising the failures of the R army. It was very eloquent - though from the point of view of wanting it to be successful. So I read a bit more about him just after that - a completely fascist Russian nationalist really. I think he was a governor of some kind after the 2014 invasion of the Donbas region.

Very interestingly, wartranslated now has an ‘Opinion’ article about him about how is it he is allowed to be critical? It turns out he is FSB regularly reporting back. Also he is a ‘repeater’ for a certain ultra Imperialist faction within which means his voice can safely let off steam for them. Apparently he is a war criminal too.

The Russian soldier’s description of attacking Mariupol is interesting. I don’t think there is propaganda involved in what he says about how the residential buildings are used as part of the Ukrainian defence because of the high level vantage points, and places for caches of equipment. It makes more sense of why the residential flats were shelled. That’s my interpretation gleaned from the Russian soldier’s description of events- he did not say what I just have.(Unless this description is all top level creative, subtle dissembling.) He does refer to the civilians at Azovstal as ‘hostages’ though. I thought it was pretty clear this was incorrect. It must have been one of the few safe places to be.

There is a nasty call intercept about a plan to use Ukrainian POWs to clear mines.

@MagicFox · Today 09:14
Great thread
9
"I spent the last week attending several international conferences (all Chatham House Rule) in Washington DC, meeting over 100 people from >30 countries.

A few takeaways on: (1) Russia-Ukraine, (2) the global economy, (3) China, (4) U.S. power, (5) emerging tech"

twitter.com/djaishankar/status/1536151775446720514?s=21&t=SDD_hjSMrLckYy91AcjHtXg

Thank you Magic Fox.
He said they all see the war as likely to be protracted as long as both sides see gains to be had.

That may be realistic, but that appraisal implies the dismal prospect of countries standing by after losing interest, and watching the war go on and on until Russia effectively wins when Ukraine has been ground down to nothing.

It makes more sense of why the residential flats were shelled

I'm not sure that the shelling had anything to do with anything except destruction.

It's exactly the same thing they did in Grozny and in Aleppo. It's their modus operandi and their battle theory relies on extremely heavy artillery use. Their store of precision ammunition has always been limitted compared to the non-precision, so there was always going to be a lot of destruction of property.

Remember they deliberately target schools, hospitals, old people's homes.

I think that it's simple: they go in to deliberately destroy everything they can to break the spirit of the people.

It's their modus operandi and their battle theory relies on extremely heavy artillery use.

Yep, it's been their default for decades (WW2 and probably before)...

Several months back some were predicting they'd return fairly quickly to the method that has worked for them in the past.

“It makes more sense of why the residential flats were shelled”

I'm not sure that the shelling had anything to do with anything except destruction.

It's exactly the same thing they did in Grozny and in Aleppo. It's their modus operandi and their battle theory relies on extremely heavy artillery use. Their store of precision ammunition has always been limitted compared to the non-precision, so there was always going to be a lot of destruction of property.

Remember they deliberately target schools, hospitals, old people's homes.

I think that it's simple: they go in to deliberately destroy everything they can to break the spirit of the people.

I agree, that’s what I thought too. But have you read that Russian soldier’s account of the battles for Mariupol on ‘wartranslated’ the site Ijsbear posted 08:32?

I’d be interested to know what you and notimagain think about that account which is on that wartranslated site.

Notimagain is the military guy and has the experience, along with a few others on this thread

As an interested civilian I think this guy needs to be promoted. (well no i don't, but if he was fighting for the Ukrainians he should be)

He analyses and observes the different strands of battle well. Again, Im untrained but the general tactics sound good. HIs comments re existing problems to the higher command were intelligent. It's clear that the Russian command is simply less good than the bright soldiers!

Some things that stand out are that the Russians are using more than just weopons, as we know. They deliberately tried to make sure that the Azov defenders had no water, and the supplies they bartered needed water. Clever.

It also stood out that some of the locals gave info. Mariupol may have been more pro-Russian than we thought. Or possibly some of them were coerced into giving info or bribed, but the phrasing, and I think the translator is careful in what words he chooses, implies that there was some co-operation.

I noted that electronic warfare was mentioned. Also that the Ukr forces were very well equipped, much better than recent conscripts are equipped now.

The soldier commentated that the Ukrs left small groups behind in civilian clothing. If this is true and 1) it wasn't just civilians attackign the russians or 2) that these soldiers had simply run out of clothing and gear then you can see why Russians would shoot at civilian adults - especially since there are reports that soldiers had been using normal cars, lacking military transport vehicles. This does not excuse it, especially regarding children, but it may explain the paranoia and trigger happiness to ~some~ degree (on the other hand it's clear that many soldiers just enjoy murdering).

The Chechens were just window dressing. From various reports, they go in, pretend to do a job and then (sorry) find women and children to rape. They don't fight much.

NOT CONFIRMED

⚡️ Correspondent of Radio Free Rikard Jozwiak reported on the outcome of a previous meeting of the European Commission, where a debate on granting Ukraine candidate status to the EU was held

"It appears that Ukraine and Moldova will be granted candidate status with conditions, but the question remains open on Georgia," he wrote.

---

The Kyiv Independent, [13/06/2022 16:08]
⚡️ Donetsk Oblast Administration: Over 22,000 people killed in Mariupol.
According to preliminary data, more than 50,000 people were forcibly deported from Mariupol to Russia and the Russian-occupied territories of Donetsk Oblast.
The administration added that those civilians who remain in occupied Mariupol are forced to go through the so-called “filtration camps,” where residents are interrogated and tortured.

The Kyiv Independent, [13/06/2022 17:06]
⚡️ Odesa Oblast Administration: 5 Russian warships carrying cruise missiles remain in Black Sea. Serhiy Bratchuk, a spokesman for the Odesa Oblast Administration, said this includes four large landing ships and one submarine.

Ukraine’s South Operational Command earlier said Russia is ready to use a total of 40 cruise missiles from the Black Sea.

Notimagain is the military guy and has the experience, along with a few others on this thread

v kind of you to say that but to avoid embarrassment I'd have to say I'd recommend @TargusEasting and @Tiddly (haven't seen the latter for a while, think thats the right the name) as the source of real knowledge for the army/battlefield at ground level stuff...

BTW I will try and get around to reading that soldier's account mentioned upthread in a few minutes...

@Ijsbear · Today 15:31

Re what you said after reading that soldier’s account from wartranslated you posted earlier:
It also stood out that some of the locals gave info. Mariupol may have been more pro-Russian than we thought. Or possibly some of them were coerced into giving info or bribed, but the phrasing, and I think the translator is careful in what words he chooses, implies that there was some co-operation.
From The Telegraph
www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/06/13/ukraine-news-russia-war-putin-severodonetsk-azot-chemical-plant/

^Mariupol mayor accuses 'traitors' of passing information to Russians
The mayor of Mariupol, Vadym Boichenko, has accused "traitors" of passing along vital information and coordinates to Russian forces during the siege of the port city at the start of the war.^

told the BBC: "They knew where to shell. There were many traitors who gave co-ordinates. Everything we had, everything that is considered the critical infrastructure of the city, was destroyed in the first seven days.

"There are 15 power supplies in the city. Even the mayor did not know where they all were. And they knew and in a week destroyed all 15. The city was left without light."

According to the mayor, the "traitors" were made up of city council deputies from pro-Russian party The Opposition Platform - For Life, who are now in charge of the city under the Russian occupation.

mobile.twitter.com/Ukraine/status/1536403861224792065 how to donate to Ukraine

I fell off the thread a bit, life got a bit hectic for the last week.

I watch the (almost) daily updates from Arestovych (he often gets quoted in various sources from these interviews) and I kept meaning to post this for a while, but thread seems to run away every time I do.

He talked a good couple of weeks ago about all the different types of war that Russia is waging, the immediate one on the ground with Ukraine is the most obvious one, but there's also energy, food, politics, etc. He then talked about information war and that Russia is really good at it - I think a lot of people will agree on here. He said that any tiny bit of progress that Russia gets, it will try to pass as a major victory, to firstly undermine Ukrainian morale, but also put doubt into Western minds whether supplying Ukraine is worth it or maybe it's all futile and Russia will win anyway? Looking at reactions in the news and mood on this thread for the last week or so, it's quite scary how successful they've been (Russia).

A lot of people think that Russia is having a lot of success right now because it's almost captured Severodonetsk. However, when you go back and remember that they've started that particular phase of their "operation" 2 months ago, it kind of puts things in perspective. Yes, they've gained some ground, but at what cost? Don't get me wrong, it cost Ukraine dearly as well, but Ukraine is generally better trained and motivated but obviously motivation can run out.

He also said that there are about 5 action zones, and Ukraine is leading the offensive on 3 out of them. That's pretty impressive having in mind they are very much outweaponed. Although he said they've got good supply of howitzers, supplied by Norway (and I think Italy and maybe Denmark? gave some too), so they were pretty successful at destroying Russian weapons supplies. Just shows how much they can achieve when they've got right equipment in right places at right times in right quantities. Which isn't really happening at the moment.

He goes on and on and on and on about the weapons every single time. Can't really blame him. There was a discussion about Spain here a few days ago, they wanted to pass on some German talks to Ukraine. Guess who blocked that...

Having said all that, you do have to take his account with a small pinch of salt. But so far it's been pretty accurate.

Forgot an important bit.

He said that it's quite common for for troops to have active action phases and then a small pause while they regroup/resupply. He said that Russian army's active phases seem to be shrinking, but pauses keep getting longer (relative to action), which is a sign they are running out of steam. They've amassed a lot of troops around Severodonetsk area, but they're not using the full potential of them. It's mainly the artillery/missiles (is that the same thing?) in action at the moment, but no so much from troops. Which again probably hits at low morale and commanders actually trying to do something about it this time. He said the current commander seems to better than any oftge previousones, and seems to know what he's doing (Zhydko?), which is not so good news for Ukraine.

Oh and apparently some sources from Kremlin say that Putin was heard shouting at the generals/commanders. That was about a week ago.

Hints, not hits

There was an excellent Radio4 series called War on Truth, it's on bbc sounds still and it looks at misinformation and disinformation used by the Russians.

Very interesting and a few episodes feature the pregnant lady who was pictured outside the bombed hospital.

Worth a listen and it all makes sense, especially if you read Russian gov and ambassadorial tweets which are outrageous and so goady

Thanks @OwlsDance. Needed to read your post tonight 🙏

Same here. Thank you @OwlsDance.

I am keeping Ukraine in my prayers.