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Ukraine Invasion: Part 22

1000 replies

MagicFox · 23/04/2022 10:06

Here we are again

OP posts:
Thread gallery
34
blueshoes · 27/04/2022 22:49

Fundamentally most humans have a survival instinct and the concept of a nuclear war is one hell of a deterrent.

Don't assume that because Putin decides if he can't run the world the way he wants then he'll blow it to hell that everyone in the nuclear chain of command will agree with him.

Agree. Logically every person in the chain must agree to blow up themselves and their family for a man who does not give a fig about them. If I were them, I would secretly sabotage the equipment.

Oops, computer says no ...

RedToothBrush · 27/04/2022 22:50

The Cavell Group AT TCG_CrisisRisks
Explosions have been heard in Kherson tonight after a day of significant shelling outside the city and fighting reported in a number of regions. There are reports Russian communications systems and the TV towers were sabotaged in Kherson taking Russian TV off the air.

blueshoes · 27/04/2022 22:52

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 27/04/2022 22:44

ITV news

UN mobilising team to evacuate civilians from besieged Mariupol steel plant

Wednesday 27 April 2022, 10:30pm

Injured Ukrainians attempt to recover in cramped conditions in Azovstal's basement.Credit: Mykhailo Vershynin
The UN has said its humanitarian office is mobilising an experienced team from around the world to coordinate the evacuation of civilians from a besieged steel plant in Mariupol.
UN secretary-general António Guterres and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed in principle to UN and Red Cross participation in the evacuation from the plant during a nearly two-hour, one-on-one meeting on Tuesday.
The sprawling Azovstal complex, which has been almost completely destroyed by Russian attacks, is the last pocket of organised Ukrainian resistance in Mariupol. An estimated 2,000 troops and 1,000 civilians are said to be holed up in bunkers underneath the wrecked structure.
UN deputy spokesperson Farhan Haq told reporters on Wednesday that the UN is trying to translate the Guterres-Putin agreement in principle “into an agreement in detail and an agreement on the ground”.
“And ultimately what we want is to make sure that a ceasefire would be respected that would allow us to move people safely,” he said

I can't begin to tell you how much I want these people to get out

Oh god, me too. The civilians, which has children amongst them, definitely need to get out. What could the deal be about the Ukrainian troops?

HappyWinter · 27/04/2022 23:04

I hope so too, I hope the UN are able to rescue the people trapped at Azovstal.

blueshoes · 27/04/2022 23:04

Wannago · 27/04/2022 22:46

Still on here (but mostly been lurking).

I do wonder though, if this is not precisely the correct role for Britain. Our job is to take the "extreme" West line - the things that ought to be said, but nobody else can say them. the US can't, it is too important, so it needs to be measured and careful. None of the countries that border Ukraine can, they are too vulnerable. Germany is too dependent on gas/oil and won't. France could, but won't. We are far enough away, and can always play bad cop to the US's good cop (when negotiating, usually the bad cop is the less senior person, so that the good cop can come in and overrule them if/when they judge it appropriate).
Given our role in spotting the issues and arming Ukraine (we didn't have to sack our heads of intelligence, like the French, we were the ones saying 1) that Putin was going to invade when everybody else was saying nah, and 2) that the Ukranians would fight, when everybody else was saying 3 days and it would all be over), we are the logical one to make the more extreme demands at this stage.
Ultimately everybody in the West and Ukraine wants Russia out of Crimea and Donbass. Whether it is possible, who knows, but somebody needs to stake out what are the fully desired options, so that the others look more reasonable when they concede. If that is Britain's role, iis it not a reasonable one for it to play? Everybody knows that we can't go in and make it happen, we are just not strong enough and we are a bit to far for reprisals (it would be mad to nuke us only, as the US would respond and nuke Russia, so they get the little fish and the US gets the big one, but short of nukes, what else can they do, we are not Poland).
So just wondering if the bluster is not exactly what is needed from Britain, so everybody else can sound more measured and reasonable and can potentially negotiate?

Wannago Interesting perspective about the UK being the loudmouths because we are out of the range of Putin's swing and too small to be a threat, but clever (intelligence) enough to know what we are saying is potentially achievable. Other countries need time to come round so the UK sets the agenda and let the ideas steep whilst Ukraine shows evidence of more atrocities to help gird loins and galvanise action. Certainly the current Tory government will be used to speaking without thinking and its ministers are inexperienced and unstatesmanlike so UK mouthing off can also be discounted as bluff and bluster.

It is working. The West is after all sending heavy weapons, a step up from previously.

BarrowInFurnessRailwayStation · 27/04/2022 23:08

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 27/04/2022 22:44

ITV news

UN mobilising team to evacuate civilians from besieged Mariupol steel plant

Wednesday 27 April 2022, 10:30pm

Injured Ukrainians attempt to recover in cramped conditions in Azovstal's basement.Credit: Mykhailo Vershynin
The UN has said its humanitarian office is mobilising an experienced team from around the world to coordinate the evacuation of civilians from a besieged steel plant in Mariupol.
UN secretary-general António Guterres and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed in principle to UN and Red Cross participation in the evacuation from the plant during a nearly two-hour, one-on-one meeting on Tuesday.
The sprawling Azovstal complex, which has been almost completely destroyed by Russian attacks, is the last pocket of organised Ukrainian resistance in Mariupol. An estimated 2,000 troops and 1,000 civilians are said to be holed up in bunkers underneath the wrecked structure.
UN deputy spokesperson Farhan Haq told reporters on Wednesday that the UN is trying to translate the Guterres-Putin agreement in principle “into an agreement in detail and an agreement on the ground”.
“And ultimately what we want is to make sure that a ceasefire would be respected that would allow us to move people safely,” he said

I can't begin to tell you how much I want these people to get out

I know. I can't stop thinking about them. I really hope help reaches them asap. Those pictures of that poor bombed city 😢 I can't imagine how scared the people must be.

Damn Putrid and his henchmen to hell.

eglantine7 · 27/04/2022 23:11

Liz Truss thinks she's Maggie Thatcher 🙄

BarrowInFurnessRailwayStation · 27/04/2022 23:12

eglantine7 · 27/04/2022 23:11

Liz Truss thinks she's Maggie Thatcher 🙄

She does doesn't she? 😖

blueshoes · 27/04/2022 23:14

If the UN does succeed in evacuating civilians from the Mariupol steel plant (instead of Russia using it as yet another opportunity to shell or kidnap them), this would be first time the Russian army actually respected the evacuation route. In which case, maybe China had some words with Putin under the UN auspices.

We'll see. I am praying the civilians will get out (with the troops too). They need food and urgent medical attention.

RedToothBrush · 28/04/2022 00:03

Isw update tonight has a map of the Kherson area. It looks like there are two Russian checkpoints to go before Chornobayivka. Then they are nearly into Kherson itself.

How retaking Kherson might play out is frightening tbh. The city is largely intact. If Ukraine retake it, then it becomes a target for Russia. So the citizens are not going to be able to get out, nor are the Ukrainians likely to be able to get supplies in easily.

Liberation will bring about starvation and death.

Shuuu · 28/04/2022 00:27

Realistically Is Putin going to be able to sustain this war much longer? How long before all countries find alternatives to oil or refuse to pay in rubles. Are his soldiers going to fight for free when wages are not going to be paid?! Are the Russian mothers/wives going to watch as those coffins start rolling in. Something that I don’t see being discussed much is, are Belarus going to finally back putin militarily if needed?! What is Putin going to do when Finland & Sweden join NATO. There’s so much uncertainty right now, sadly the only place he can be dealt with is Russia. There is still a huge following for Putin and even those who are not loyal to him fear him so the outcome is the same. This situation is horrendous for Ukraine. My heart is breaking for them right now.

Autumnwater · 28/04/2022 06:47

Liz Truss speech didn’t seem as disastrous as it could have done. However I read this and thought this is a nice one the Kremlin can take hold of and say the UK is at war with us

"The war in Ukraine is our war. It's everyone's war because Ukraine's victory is a strategic imperative for all of us," she said.

this was on sky news summary this morning

RedToothBrush · 28/04/2022 06:59

Kherson region to introduce the ruble on 1st May.

'Surplus' harvest to be exported from Kherson region to Russia. (Echoes of history here)

MagicFox · 28/04/2022 07:11

This thread outlines the difference between tactical and strategic nuclear weapons and why it doesn't make sense for Putin to use either in Ukraine (it doesn't say their use is not possible later on but it reaffirms the likelihood that it is no greater than it has been all along) :

twitter.com/russianforces/status/1519430545503141888?s=21&t=GC2wOweFKRCiobcMSgxrhw

OP posts:
Igotjelly · 28/04/2022 07:20

I now can’t find who said it (thanks Mumsnet 😑) but interesting thought that perhaps what Putin referred to by weapons was something more akin to cyber attacks. he did specifically say weapons that others don’t have and surely that isn’t actually true of nuclear weapons.

Ijsbear · 28/04/2022 07:21

RedToothBrush · 28/04/2022 06:59

Kherson region to introduce the ruble on 1st May.

'Surplus' harvest to be exported from Kherson region to Russia. (Echoes of history here)

Oh god.

Chance of starvation then whether Kherson is freed or not.

MagicFox · 28/04/2022 07:23

Yea, that's a good point @Igotjelly . He also said it would be retaliatory against a "strategic threat" to Russia but he always leaves this open to (his) interpretation I suppose

OP posts:
Natsku · 28/04/2022 07:27

Igotjelly · 28/04/2022 07:20

I now can’t find who said it (thanks Mumsnet 😑) but interesting thought that perhaps what Putin referred to by weapons was something more akin to cyber attacks. he did specifically say weapons that others don’t have and surely that isn’t actually true of nuclear weapons.

But other countries have cyber attack "weapons" as well too. Maybe he just thinks Russian cyber war abilities are far superior so it counts as something that others don't have? Or maybe its just his fevered imagination.

Ijsbear · 28/04/2022 07:33

bit of a non-sequitur but a while back someone posted a very interesting thread about Lukashenko and Putin a while back. If it's accurate, and Lukashenko has managed to stay out of the fight when I'm sure Putin would have wanted him to join, then there may be some tips in it for people who are dealing with Putin and it may also help people realise that Putin throws out threats the moment anyone says anything he doesn't like, like a spinning top in the rain throws off waterdroplets.

twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1518351659465904129

KonTikki · 28/04/2022 07:35

To be honest, Putin referring to his special weapons reminds me of Hitler, cowering in his bunker, talking about his "wonder weapons".
They didn't exist then, and I'm not convinced that they exist now.

RedToothBrush · 28/04/2022 07:49

MagicFox · 28/04/2022 07:11

This thread outlines the difference between tactical and strategic nuclear weapons and why it doesn't make sense for Putin to use either in Ukraine (it doesn't say their use is not possible later on but it reaffirms the likelihood that it is no greater than it has been all along) :

twitter.com/russianforces/status/1519430545503141888?s=21&t=GC2wOweFKRCiobcMSgxrhw

I don't get the logic of the thread tbh.

It makes sense to western thinking but not through the lens of Russia.

The argument that it will only be used to demonstrate resolve to use and serves no tactical or strategic benefit and can only cause mass casualties of civilians therefore the threshold to use will be very high misses some really key points I fear.

The first point is that the Russians deliberately use terror as a tactic. Much of their bombing and artillery campaign serves no other purpose. Civilians are deliberately targeted for this reason. There is a reason here to try and crack the west by scaring the public and dividing NATO / EU as we have seen just yesterday with the attempt to try and blackmail the Bulgarian with gas. Thats backfired and now the Bulgarians are more determined to send weapons and I suspect it is making the Germans speed up their efforts to find alternatives.

Secondly Putin is under increasing pressure to do something. There are internal calls to show strength in the face of embarrassing loses and uturns. Another significant loss could turn up the dial significantly. The level of this pressure means the bar of an attack in terms of whether its sensible changes; you get a switch from logical reasoning to emotion led reasoning. Its going from acting rational to acting out of frustration and desperation. We aren't there yet (some way to go on this) but as sanctions kick in and fuel embargoes eventually come into force and the backlash over the body count comes in, we don't know where this is headed. The danger is the loss of temper with the situation.

Third the whole point of an existential threat is that if you don't do something you lose everything. You have nothing else to lose. At that point the calculation doesn't need a high threshold, it can be purely vindictive rather than tactical. There is mountains of evidence to suggest that Russia has been motivated by pure vindictiveness at times during this war.

The arguments are nice and soothing, but overlook some of the most important factors here about how the West and Russia aren't understanding each other.

The West constantly applies the logic that no one would do something so terrible because its self destructive not accounting for the level of misjudgement and lack of understanding of the situation and how Russian thinks the west will react to its moves. Russia demonstrates that it thinks it can get leverage by doing something by thinking the west are weak, only to find the we have other ideas.

I am not saying that this means we are doomed to nukes. So don't start panicking. I am saying that if you are failing to add in the above three factors you are not necessarily assessing the situation accurately either.

RedToothBrush · 28/04/2022 07:53

Igotjelly · 28/04/2022 07:20

I now can’t find who said it (thanks Mumsnet 😑) but interesting thought that perhaps what Putin referred to by weapons was something more akin to cyber attacks. he did specifically say weapons that others don’t have and surely that isn’t actually true of nuclear weapons.

Definitely feeling like this one is overstated at this point. Especially due to computer and computer parts shortage.

Still a risk, but much less than anticipated.

OwlsDance · 28/04/2022 07:56

I think Belarus is 100% dependant on Russian gas and oil. If Lukashenko actively goes against Putin, he'll turn all the supplies off, which he's done before multiple times with Ukraine.

I'm not sure how big Belarusian army is. But I'm pretty sure that Lukashenko will be doing his bare minimum as not to rock the boat and watching how it's all going to pan out. Don't think he's as deluded as Putin as to how badly this is all going.

RedToothBrush · 28/04/2022 07:59

Btw though if you want to feel more positive and less worried be mindful of the verbal and body language between the US and Ukraine especially between Austin, Blinken, Zelensky and Reznikov.

They believe Russia can be beaten and are confident.

They will be assessing the risks of nukes as part of that. Their confidence isn't a bluff or to boost morale. They genuinely believe it.

Interestingly I believe does Putin.

Ijsbear · 28/04/2022 08:06

The point about Lukaschenko is that he is relatively weak but he can play Putin rather impressively. Worth learning from?

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