Page 36 | Ukraine Invasion: Part 22

RedToothBrush · 28/04/2022 08:08

Lukashenko's first priority is his own survival. Lukashenko didn't back Putin militarily citing his own weakness as the reason. However Lukashenko also knows that if Putin is fucking it up, then tying himself to Putin too closely is stupid.

He has to be close but not so close he bleeds for it.

Lukashenko does not believe the war is going well. He has doubts about Putin as long term leader. He thinks that there is a possibility he will either die or be replaced in the next few years and hes planning for that. He cannot afford a prove Western Russian state though either.

If you read the thread by Galeev he stated that Lukashenko had ambitions to be Russian leader by absorbing Belarus into Russia but he had given up on that idea. Nothing to say he doesn't think he can have more power and influence inside Russia if Putin goes...

Igotjelly · 28/04/2022 08:09

I thought Zelensky’s speech last night had a slightly more hopeful tone than we’ve seen recently. Talking about the future and rebuilding Ukraine.

BarrowInFurnessRailwayStation · 28/04/2022 08:21

Igotjelly · 28/04/2022 07:20

I now can’t find who said it (thanks Mumsnet 😑) but interesting thought that perhaps what Putin referred to by weapons was something more akin to cyber attacks. he did specifically say weapons that others don’t have and surely that isn’t actually true of nuclear weapons.

I assumed he was referring to the RS-28 Sarmat weapon which could wipe out an entire country.

katem98 · 28/04/2022 08:24

Ben Wallace on BBC News, I really like him.

""It's really important to send a message to Putin that he will always get an escalation of certain behaviours when he behaves like he does. It's always calibrated to make sure that it doesn't broaden the conflict and to make sure that we are viewed as being defenders"."

I like the almost emphasis on 'defenders'.

YorkshireLondonMiss · 28/04/2022 08:26

So basically what putin has said has worked because it’s ambiguous enough to keep us all guessing what the heck he means. Also ambiguous enough that he can make it so that whatever he does fits that narrative if he wants it to. Hopefully it’s the boobs we spoke about yesterday.

ScrollingLeaves · 28/04/2022 08:29

@Ijsbear · 28/04/2022 07:33
bit of a non-sequitur but a while back someone posted a very interesting thread about Lukashenko and Putin a while back. If it's accurate, and Lukashenko has managed to stay out of the fight when I'm sure Putin would have wanted him to join, then there may be some tips in it for people who are dealing with Putin and it may also help people realise that Putin throws out threats the moment anyone says anything he doesn't like, like a spinning top in the rain throws off waterdroplets.

twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1518351659465904129

I just read the Kamil Galeev thread you posted and want to briefly interject with another non sequitur:

Is it also known in the West that crossing your legs in the presence of someone important is so disrespectful it could get you thrown into prison?

It shows what effect something apparently minor can have.

Kamil Galeev

24 Apr
Unfortunately Uralkali's CEO Vladislav Baumgertner angered Lukashenko. Why? Some say he competed with Belarusian potassium fertiliser producers too hard. Others argue that he showed disrespect crossing his legs when talking to Lukashenko

BarrowInFurnessRailwayStation · 28/04/2022 08:31

I'm concerned that he's going to be backed into a corner and just lashes out as well. I suppose he is in that corner now. I'm really encouraged by the confident talk from several sources that Ukraine can win this war and even drive them out of Crimea. That would be incredible.

HappyWinter · 28/04/2022 08:36

From the Guardian live feed, Ben Wallace on the Black Sea:

The UK defence minister Ben Wallace has suggested that the UK will be supplying Ukraine with weaponry that can strike Russian naval forces in the Black Sea. He told Sky News earlier:

"We have said we will source and supply, if we can, anti-ship missiles. It’s incredibly important that grain that affects us all, the food prices, does get out of Ukraine. It can’t control the Black Sea. It’s not theirs anymore. And therefore making sure that Russian ships are not used to bombard cities is important."

katem98 · 28/04/2022 08:39

He cleared that up a little.

OwlsDance · 28/04/2022 08:40

I'm not sure if non Russian speakers are able to pick this up, but I watched that video yesterday where Putin was talking about his magic weapons, and he didn't seem to be in good form at all. He was repeating himself quite a bit, and also tripping over words. He's usually very eloquent.

I've also read the comments after the video - this was on state TV website, RIA Novosti - and there's a staggering amount of comments from people that know that the "special operation" isn't going as well as they are made out to believe. Sure, there were lots of idiots with "just nuke them all!" but there were quite a lot of sarcastic comments, saying sure, Russia will answer with "lightning response", it will just take 2 months plus. So even though they are not criticising Putin per se, I feel like the tide is on the turn. Provided Russia doesn't get any further significant gains.

Alexandra2001 · 28/04/2022 08:41

BarrowInFurnessRailwayStation · 28/04/2022 08:31

I'm concerned that he's going to be backed into a corner and just lashes out as well. I suppose he is in that corner now. I'm really encouraged by the confident talk from several sources that Ukraine can win this war and even drive them out of Crimea. That would be incredible.

Why is he in a corner? holding their own against the Ukrainians, still blockading the Black Sea/launching 'cruises from ships & despite sanctions, can produce unlimited shells and missiles.... Ukraine also has extremely long supply lines.

As much as i want him destroyed and Russia weakened, i think its pie in the sky to think Russia will be forced out of Ukraine.

Perhaps IF the west stopped buying Russian gas and oil, maybe it might happen.

DuncinToffee · 28/04/2022 08:42

Bulgaria PM visiting Kyiv today

BarrowInFurnessRailwayStation · 28/04/2022 08:45

OwlsDance · 28/04/2022 08:40

I'm not sure if non Russian speakers are able to pick this up, but I watched that video yesterday where Putin was talking about his magic weapons, and he didn't seem to be in good form at all. He was repeating himself quite a bit, and also tripping over words. He's usually very eloquent.

I've also read the comments after the video - this was on state TV website, RIA Novosti - and there's a staggering amount of comments from people that know that the "special operation" isn't going as well as they are made out to believe. Sure, there were lots of idiots with "just nuke them all!" but there were quite a lot of sarcastic comments, saying sure, Russia will answer with "lightning response", it will just take 2 months plus. So even though they are not criticising Putin per se, I feel like the tide is on the turn. Provided Russia doesn't get any further significant gains.

This is good to know, thanks.

BarrowInFurnessRailwayStation · 28/04/2022 08:47

Alexandra2001 · 28/04/2022 08:41

Why is he in a corner? holding their own against the Ukrainians, still blockading the Black Sea/launching 'cruises from ships & despite sanctions, can produce unlimited shells and missiles.... Ukraine also has extremely long supply lines.

As much as i want him destroyed and Russia weakened, i think its pie in the sky to think Russia will be forced out of Ukraine.

Perhaps IF the west stopped buying Russian gas and oil, maybe it might happen.

Show quote history

I've been reading that the withdrawal of Russian oil and gas is next on the cards for the west.

DuncinToffee · 28/04/2022 08:47

Olga Tokariuk @ olgatokariuk

Day 64 of Ukraine resistance. Repressions on the rise in Russian-occupied Kherson. 4 people injured during a brutal crackdown on a protest against the occupation. Russians created a camp where 300 Ukrainian activists are held, tortured. Foodstuffs are seized and taken to Russia

Alexandra2001 · 28/04/2022 08:50

HappyWinter · 28/04/2022 08:36

From the Guardian live feed, Ben Wallace on the Black Sea:

The UK defence minister Ben Wallace has suggested that the UK will be supplying Ukraine with weaponry that can strike Russian naval forces in the Black Sea. He told Sky News earlier:

"We have said we will source and supply, if we can, anti-ship missiles. It’s incredibly important that grain that affects us all, the food prices, does get out of Ukraine. It can’t control the Black Sea. It’s not theirs anymore. And therefore making sure that Russian ships are not used to bombard cities is important."

Yes the BS needs to be free of Russian ships but Harpoons alone wont do this.

DuncinToffee · 28/04/2022 08:51

Kyiv Independent

These are the indicative estimates of Russia’s combat losses as of April 28, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Igotjelly · 28/04/2022 08:51

OwlsDance · 28/04/2022 08:40

I'm not sure if non Russian speakers are able to pick this up, but I watched that video yesterday where Putin was talking about his magic weapons, and he didn't seem to be in good form at all. He was repeating himself quite a bit, and also tripping over words. He's usually very eloquent.

I've also read the comments after the video - this was on state TV website, RIA Novosti - and there's a staggering amount of comments from people that know that the "special operation" isn't going as well as they are made out to believe. Sure, there were lots of idiots with "just nuke them all!" but there were quite a lot of sarcastic comments, saying sure, Russia will answer with "lightning response", it will just take 2 months plus. So even though they are not criticising Putin per se, I feel like the tide is on the turn. Provided Russia doesn't get any further significant gains.

Thanks, this is really interesting. Re the comments section It’s exactly the same as if you read the DM comments.

Alexandra2001 · 28/04/2022 08:52

I've been reading that the withdrawal of Russian oil and gas is next on the cards for the west

Thats fantastic, any idea on timescales? the only thing i heard was UK thought oil would end in 2023.

shreddednips · 28/04/2022 09:10

I assumed he was referring to the RS-28 Sarmat weapon which could wipe out an entire country.

AFAIK, the RS-28 Sarmat hasn't actually entered service yet and isn't due to until later in the year. Not that that is particularly comforting, but I don't think that can be what he means by a lightning fast response, unless there's something we don't know. But I think western intelligence would probably find out if Russia actually had operational Sarmat missiles ready to deploy.

I think Putin is being deliberately ambiguous here, because if he says he's going to do something specific then he really has to follow through or his threats completely lose credibility.

OwlsDance · 28/04/2022 09:11

Something is better than nothing, even reducing Russian oil purchases before stopping them completely will have an effect.

PestorPeston · 28/04/2022 09:16

As part of its additional $800 million military aid package the US announced last week, the Department of Defence said it will be providing Ukraine with drone boats – better known as uncrewed surface vessels (USV) – for use against attacking Russian Navy craft in the Black Sea.
These should help get the Black sea trade following more freely.
Not sure about the extent of Russian mining though.

US drone boats

RedToothBrush · 28/04/2022 09:25

YorkshireLondonMiss · 28/04/2022 08:26

So basically what putin has said has worked because it’s ambiguous enough to keep us all guessing what the heck he means. Also ambiguous enough that he can make it so that whatever he does fits that narrative if he wants it to. Hopefully it’s the boobs we spoke about yesterday.

This is absolutely spot on.

ChardonnaysBeastlyCat · 28/04/2022 09:34

Thats fantastic, any idea on timescales? the only thing i heard was UK thought oil would end in 2023.

What exactly is so fantastic about this? Have you given a rational thought about what the means for the ordinary person?

Rising prices of everything, especially heating and petrol. Everything else because of rising delivery costs, shortages in the shops because of fuel shortages, unemployment, blackouts. Inflation.

While this all might sound wonderful to you, I'm sure you can appreciate that not everybody else might think that.

Igotjelly · 28/04/2022 09:35

ChardonnaysBeastlyCat · 28/04/2022 09:34

Thats fantastic, any idea on timescales? the only thing i heard was UK thought oil would end in 2023.

What exactly is so fantastic about this? Have you given a rational thought about what the means for the ordinary person?

Rising prices of everything, especially heating and petrol. Everything else because of rising delivery costs, shortages in the shops because of fuel shortages, unemployment, blackouts. Inflation.

While this all might sound wonderful to you, I'm sure you can appreciate that not everybody else might think that.

This is so true. I myself consider it a luxury that I am secure enough financially that my biggest worry is a hypothetical nuclear war. Many people I know don’t have capacity to worry about that because they’re genuinely concerned about being able to feed their kids next week.