Ukraine Invasion: Part 22

[MagicFox]

Here we are again

Third the whole point of an existential threat is that if you don't do something you lose everything. You have nothing else to lose.

That is a subtle yet vital point. While Russia loses everything if it uses nuclear weapons, we have to look at this through the lens of Putin and not people like Abramovich who have tasted the west. It is the potential extinction of Putin and the Kremlin guard that could lead to nuclear weapons. I suspect the US intel will be very alert to this and with Zelensky in the loop will know the point at which Putin must be given a parachute. What that looks like in terms of land and land bridges will no doubt play out. There will almost certainly be some entrenchment against Russia to delay its military rebuild. It must be like herding cats at the moment, but the US seems to be doing all the dirty work. We should not forget this.

And how are you going to convince the public this is necessary? That they might lose their job, they can't use their car and can't go on their usual Disney half term because of a war in Ukraine?

Most people don't even know where Ukraine is.

Are you ready for riots? I'm not.

I really wonder if Putin used to be very much in charge but others are now starting to pull the strings. So many indications that he's an ill man. Not that shoigu and lavrov are an improvement

Many families can't or have stopped doing these things already, as Truss said, Russia winning in Ukraine wont be good for any of us.

So whilst we all applaud the UK's military aid to Ukraine, we have also bought £220million in oil from Russia, £220m that will be used to bomb the 1000s of people in the Azov steel works.

There is zero need for us to be buying this oil from Russia, why aren't sanctions being lifted on Iran?

Why not lift sanctions on Iran ?
America / Israel is why not.

There is zero need for us to be buying this oil from Russia, why aren't sanctions being lifted on Iran?

This is your rational take on it?

And you really think things are as bad as they will get for many families?

And when are things going to get better according to Liz Truss? And, possibly the most pertinent question, since when do you believe what Liz Truss is saying? I

I think if 'the public' need persuading that a few days in a theme park are less important than people being blown to bits, tortured, raped, we're a bit fucked.

Let her be burned and raped, if that's the price of my mini-break. Really? Really?!

Good on Ben Wallace this morning.

I think it's more a case of Russia cutting off supply as in Poland and Bulgaria.

That’s not how I read it. It’s about oil embargoes on the wests part. Essentially decapitating Russia’s economy.

That’s not how I read it. It’s about oil embargoes on the wests part. Essentially decapitating Russia’s economy.

Yes that's how I read it too.

I'd be more likely to riot if we don't stop using Russian gas and oil.

There are other ways our government can take the financial pressure of the British public but they are choosing to put their mates/ hoard more money as a priority.

This is what I would protest/riot about.

Im cynical that the public will do without , once people cant get their favourite
food and shortages of petrol etc, rips out, they soon will be fed up with being inconvenienced, never mind people are being killed, made homeless, raped etc in Ukraine.

^
Canadian Ukrainian Volunteer
@CanadianUkrain1
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3h
In other news. During the night, in #Kherson region, several #Russian ammunition depots in #Molodetsky and #Velyka #Oleksandrivka mysteriously exploded. We blame reckless cigarette smokers.^

small bits of good new

I might have been flippant about the Disney break.

What about your job, or someone else’s job, what about your pension when the stock market crashes? What about the bare shelves in the supermarkets and the chemists? what about not being able to afford going to work because you cannot fill up your car? Rolling blackouts?

Are you happy with that?

No. I'm also 'the public', and I've cut a number of things from my life in order to donate. I still get to wake up in the morning to an un-bombed house.

'Each according to his ability' after all - those who can't afford to help, can't afford it, fair enough. Those who can, really should consider where on their relative value scale holidays sit, as opposed to, say, tortured human beings.

I think I'm very angry this morning.

I think the wider security of the European continent is of upmost importance at the moment. If Ukraine don't prevail it puts us all at risk because it'll lead to Russia believing they can invade more countries, although with the tin pot army they have I'd be surprised if they got very far.

Does anger help when you are evaluating a situation?

Donating is wonderful, what about a complete change in your way of life? Are you ready for that? Are you happy to ask everyone else to do that?

This is why Germany have been dragging their feet with the gas.

You really don't want to see the dire impact on my pension already

Bare shelves? Unlikely. Filling the car? Have already given up non-essential travel. Rolling blackouts? I'm a seventies kid, I remember those.

I'm not sure 'happy' is my yardstick here though - necessary, perhaps. I find myself in the unusual position of agreeing with Liz "no brains" Truss though, in that it is taking a hit now to prevent a larger hit later.

What about when Russian controls both food production and it's export in Ukraine as well? What about when it invades Moldova, Romania, etc? What about when it takes control of the seas in that area? How 'expensive' will all that be?

This is why Germany have been dragging their feet with the gas

I think Germany's approach has been woeful. But one faint point that can be made is that manufacturing has been reliant on Russian oil. Some of the things made are essential for daily life and indeed for making military equipment.

They are moving in the right direction at last and this whole crisis has been a gigantic thing for Germany to get to grips with. They had a previously good relationship with Russia and believed that trade would achieve peace, plus ... their own military history. Taking the decision to build up their military is no small thing.

This change in Germany and the lowering of respect for Russia's efficiency and military ability are two of the greatest long term effects of the war, I think. Plus ofc China can hardly be considering Russia anything like an equal partner now. Perhaps in the long term Russia will be a client state of China.

Sorry, I keep replying a few beats too late (am in extremely dull online meeting so not paying full attention).

I do find I can be angry and think at the same time, yes. I also appreciate everyone has their own lines in the sand. At the same time as believing those lines can be shifted, with a bit of encouragement.

This is not a 'look what I'm losing' scenario, it's a 'look what I'm temporarily agreeing to in order to HELP other people not be murdered'.

@ChardonnaysBeastlyCat

This thread is generally on the hawkish side and conviction based, so you are unlikely to get much agreement to your views here. It will also reflect a good proportion of the population of course.

What about when Russian controls both food production and it's export in Ukraine as well? What about when it invades Moldova, Romania, etc? What about when it takes control of the seas in that area? How 'expensive' will all that be?

Hang on, are you more worried about a possible loss of a resource in the future, than you are about the certain and imminent loss of another one now?

Food can be grown but we need more time to wean off oil and gas.

Absolutely. Well said.

I can be worried about both at the same time. That specific point was to clarify that giving in now to secure today's energy resource, will result in being in being blackmailed on a much wider basis for a wider variety of resources in the future.

But lives, basically. Right now, I cannot get out of my mind that horrific story about the young woman with hands burned to the bone, a chunk of flesh torn off her ribs, and... all the rest. It has to be stopped.

There is no need for the British public to suffer if the British government would get their act together. A reasonable cap on fuel prices, decent tax on oil and gas company profits, and tax credits/bump to benefit payments to ease things with the rises in food prices.