Ukraine Invasion: Part 20

[HappyWinter]

Thanks to everyone for taking part in the thread.

Whilst I don't want Ukrainians to suffer a minute longer than necessary, in one respect, this is a positive thing.

1. The West is digging in for the long haul. We're not going away and Putin knows it.
2. The longer this takes, the longer the sanctions have to do their job.
3. We can keep up the pressure on politicians to remove our Russian oil and gas dependency.
4. It gives all those other regions dominated by Russia a chance to rebel. Ukrainians have shown just how good they are at guerilla warfare. The Russians in that dug out position are still vulnerable to supply disruption, sleep disruption, sneak attacks and every other covert operation in the playbook. I would not bet on a demoralised and badly trained army gaining much ground.

Apologies if it's been mentioned but apparently mariapol hasn't fallen.
Not according too the times today, Ukrainias military strongly refuted the messages everyone has seen.

The ABC unfortunately due to the terrain and logistics of the Donbas no one thinks it will be an easy win for zelensky. Supply lines etc won't be such an issue Andso on

@TheABC

Whilst I don't want Ukrainians to suffer a minute longer than necessary, in one respect, this is a positive thing.

1. The West is digging in for the long haul. We're not going away and Putin knows it.
2. The longer this takes, the longer the sanctions have to do their job.
3. We can keep up the pressure on politicians to remove our Russian oil and gas dependency.
4. It gives all those other regions dominated by Russia a chance to rebel. Ukrainians have shown just how good they are at guerilla warfare. The Russians in that dug out position are still vulnerable to supply disruption, sleep disruption, sneak attacks and every other covert operation in the playbook. I would not bet on a demoralised and badly trained army gaining much ground.

Yes, much as I dream about it, let's not kid ourselves this war will end quickly. Russia still has a lot of fuel to throw into the fire, even if not particularly effective.

Time is not on Russia's side and the West is digging in with Ukraine.

@MagicFox

How does this expectation of a long war sit with the feted May 9th deadline? Also, how long does 'long war' imply? It all seems so intense that a long war contained to ukraine just doesn't sound imaginable. Usual caveat to please excuse my ignorance here

The fated May 9th is something of a twitter myth.

Russia CAN NOT have a military victory by then by conventional means.

It simply does not have the strength to do it - contract soliders are reaching the end of their contracts and are refusing to sign new ones as Ukraine has been so tough. The next wave of conscripts won't be available until June.

They are struggling to redeploy soliders from the Northern areas to the Eastern and Southern fronts quickly cos they are so screwed.

Advanced in the East against an entrenched Ukrainian force just aren't happening. .

That's what makes me worry that he-who-must-not-be-named might do something even less rational. May 9th seems to have been built up in his psyche. What will the parades look like in Russia?

BREAKING - Biden describes Russia’s actions as genocide for the first time.

Kiyv Independent

Ambassador: Ukraine invited Scholz to Kyiv.

According to the German newspaper Der Spiegel, Ukraine’s Ambassador to Germany Andriy Melnyk said Kyiv would be happy to welcome German Chancellor Olaf Scholz for talks on assistance with heavy weapons.

@Igotjelly

BREAKING - Biden describes Russia’s actions as genocide for the first time.

Wonder whether that was scripted by his administration or he simply forgot that that was the word that must not be used.

and on the subject of weopons ...

WorldOnAlert
@worldonalert
·
24m
The Pentagon will host leaders from the top eight U.S. weapons manufacturers on Wednesday to discuss the industry's capacity to meet Ukraine's weapons needs if the war with Russia lasts years

That means they believe 1) there is a real and possibly high likelihood of it lasting for years and 2) They are willing to keep helping Ukraine, at least as long as this president is in power.

I wonder if having an external enemy to focus on will help heal the deep wounds within the US itself? Republicans and Democrats working together to stand up to Russia?

@blueshoes reports seem to be he was ad-libbing.

[quote Igotjelly]@blueshoes reports seem to be he was ad-libbing.[/quote]
Yep, thought that was too good to be true

@blueshoes it seems to have been more likely the latter (or passed off as the latter). He was saying it without saying it. Context a speech in Iowa where he blamed inflation on the war in ukraine. What he said was:

"Your family budget, your ability to fill up your tank - none of it should hinge on whether a dictator declares war and commits genocide a half a world away,"

So yes it's clear but also fudgeable

[quote Igotjelly]@blueshoes reports seem to be he was ad-libbing.[/quote]
Someone will have the enviable task of walking this back again.

"Your family budget, your ability to fill up your tank - none of it should hinge on whether a dictator declares war and commits genocide a half a world away,"

So yes it's clear but also fudgeable

Interesting to see the exact wording. Agree that it is enough of a fudge that he could walk away from. He said it and he didn't say it ... probably lost in translation to Russian

What a great time for word games ... bet Ukraine enjoyed that one

[quote Igotjelly]@blueshoes reports seem to be he was ad-libbing.[/quote]
oh ffs.

@PaperTyger, @blueshoes, oh, I agree.
I don't envisage an easy or swift victory for Ukraine and I know Russia can still throw resources at it.

However...I don't see an easy victory for Russia, either. It looks like they are as hamstrung by corruption and crap training as we are by rules, laws and inertia.

I

Michael MacKay @mhmck
The State Border Guard Service of Ukraine has increased security along the border with Russian-occupied Moldova – the fake "Transnistria." Invader Russia has approximately 2,000 occupation troops around Tiraspol. They're expected to carry out provocations to pin Ukrainian troops.

The State Border Guard Service of Ukraine has increased security along the border with Russian-occupied Moldova – the fake "Transnistria." Invader Russia has approximately 2,000 occupation troops around Tiraspol. They're expected to carry out provocations to pin Ukrainian troops.

The President of Moldova, Maia Sandu, has told the Russians they must leave. After 30 years, the foreign occupiers are decidedly unwelcome.

Ukraine has given notice that any Russian military aircraft attempting to fly to Tiraspol will be shot down.

Unfortunately, the Great Power democracies have never done anything proactive about Russia's imperialist aggression.

If they came to their senses now they could do something simple and direct: support Moldovan sovereignty and help the Sandu gov't expel Russian occupation troops.

Follow up on this:

PestorPeston Mon 11-Apr-22 22:30:31
US and India seem to be best friends again
twitter.com/DeptofDefense/status/1513626330780389378

The reason they are friendly is pretty straightforward

Trent Telenko @TrentTelenko
India is in a bind in that high end Russian equipment is failing the test of combat in Ukraine & India's procurement system has a mismanagement problem rivaling that of the US Navy ship building program.

warontherocks.com/2022/04/after-ukraine-where-will-india-buy-its-weapons/
After Ukraine, Where Will India Buy Its Weapons?

Gives US leverage.

[quote TheABC]**@PaperTyger, @blueshoes, oh, I agree.
I don't envisage an easy or swift victory for Ukraine and I know Russia can still throw resources at it.

However...I don't see an easy victory for Russia, either. It looks like they are as hamstrung by corruption and crap training as we are by rules, laws and inertia.

I[/quote]
It does look like a stalemate.

I would like to share my completely unmilitary and unsupported view.

Sure Nato is full of foot dragging, wilful blindness and legalistic word play , but so long as they continue to arm and support Ukraine, which seems to be quite strongly and openly the case, even if it is not fast enough for Ukraine's liking, I believe that over time, brick by brick, Ukraine will chip away at the Russian monolith in the South and East.

Success is little things done well. That is what our Ukrainian friends are good at. Prayers for them over this unbearable time.

Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien
Ok, been looking forward to the transcript of the DoD briefing since the first notes this afternoon. Seemed that there was some seriously interesting information about the air war. Here is the whole transcript btw.
www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/2997296/senior-defense-official-holds-a-background-briefing-april-12-2022/

Thread
twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1514001961699491843

The Russians are trying to hit Ukrainian logistics targets but pace of strikes is slow and rate is slowing.
Pentagon still thinks Ukrainian air defense is mostly intact, though clearly they want more.
Russians are trying to get rid of Ukrainian air defense but are shite at it.
Ukrainians now have switchblades.
US position on fixed wings is not to get involved themselves but not opposed to Poland or Slovakia supplying.
Considered amazing that the Ukrainians are still in this good state as it was though Russians would dominate.

Ooooo look at this:
Jonathan Lemire @JonLemire
“The Biden administration is poised to dramatically expand the scope of weapons it’s providing Ukraine, with the Pentagon looking to send Mi-17 helicopters that can be equipped to attack Russian vehicles, armored Humvees and a range of other arms.”

Helicopters!

Not definite yet. But Helicopters!

@RedToothBrush

Follow up on this:

PestorPeston Mon 11-Apr-22 22:30:31
US and India seem to be best friends again
twitter.com/DeptofDefense/status/1513626330780389378

The reason they are friendly is pretty straightforward

Trent Telenko @TrentTelenko
India is in a bind in that high end Russian equipment is failing the test of combat in Ukraine & India's procurement system has a mismanagement problem rivaling that of the US Navy ship building program.

warontherocks.com/2022/04/after-ukraine-where-will-india-buy-its-weapons/
After Ukraine, Where Will India Buy Its Weapons?

Gives US leverage.

Interesting perspective. Another fall out from Russia unintentionally exposing the weaknesses in its war machine.

RedToothBrush Helicopters, oh joy! Like the cheeky ones that struck the Russian fuel depot in Belgorod.

@blueshoes

RedToothBrush Helicopters, oh joy! Like the cheeky ones that struck the Russian fuel depot in Belgorod.

And were resupplying into Mariupol and medivacing out of Mariupol. Yep.

The Ukrainians have demonstrated their value and ability with them.

@RedToothBrush

We've heard a lot about how the Russian army is inept.

Here is a couple of articles giving the flip side to the running down of the Russian army and talking about the modernisation of the Ukrainian army and how it is being lead now.

They are ones for anyone who is more of a military nerd. I found both fascinating.

www.thebulwark.com/i-commanded-u-s-army-europe-heres-what-i-saw-in-the-russian-and-ukrainian-armies/
I Commanded U.S. Army Europe. Here’s What I Saw in the Russian and Ukrainian Armies.
The two armies at war today couldn’t be more different.

www.politico.com/news/2022/04/08/ukraines-iron-general-zaluzhnyy-00023901
Ukraine’s 'iron general' is a hero, but he's no star
Meet Valeriy Zaluzhnyy, the commander in chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, who's quietly leading the fight against Russia's invaders.

Excellent articles and I found them fascinating.