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Ukraine Invasion: Part 20

997 replies

HappyWinter · 11/04/2022 21:30

Thanks to everyone for taking part in the thread.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
51
RedToothBrush · 12/04/2022 18:20

We've heard a lot about how the Russian army is inept.

Here is a couple of articles giving the flip side to the running down of the Russian army and talking about the modernisation of the Ukrainian army and how it is being lead now.

They are ones for anyone who is more of a military nerd. I found both fascinating.

www.thebulwark.com/i-commanded-u-s-army-europe-heres-what-i-saw-in-the-russian-and-ukrainian-armies/
I Commanded U.S. Army Europe. Here’s What I Saw in the Russian and Ukrainian Armies.
The two armies at war today couldn’t be more different.

www.politico.com/news/2022/04/08/ukraines-iron-general-zaluzhnyy-00023901
Ukraine’s 'iron general' is a hero, but he's no star
Meet Valeriy Zaluzhnyy, the commander in chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, who's quietly leading the fight against Russia's invaders.

Ijsbear · 12/04/2022 18:30

blinks given that Nokia is -Finnish- ... you know, that doesn't sound impossible

RedToothBrush · 12/04/2022 18:34

Samuel Ramani @samramani2
BREAKING: The U.S. says it will not object to Slovakia's potential transfer of MiG jets to Ukraine

This is a major contrast from U.S. opposition to Poland's MiG transfer. By moving S-300s to Ukraine, Slovakia has bucked domestic polarizations to moving sophisticated arms with Ukraine, and might take this green-light seriously.

Bring on the MiGs.

Natsku · 12/04/2022 18:35

Oh yeah that report earlier about Russia moving military stuff near the Finnish border, was just coastal defence systems that get moved about from time to time. Some major general in the Finnish army was on the news saying its really nothing at all.

Alexandra2001 · 12/04/2022 18:37

@DGRossetti

We should stop ALL trade with Russia, today - every single bit of it, because every $ we send him will buy one bullet and that bullet may find its way into the back of a Ukrainian, tied up and blindfolded.

If we don't trade we can't spy. Those companies that have been "dragging their feet" in pulling out of Russia may well have been using that time to plant backdoors and exploitable vulnerabilities into kit the Russians are using.

You'd think with a film about Operation Mincemeat coming out soon, people would be more on the ball.

Of course it may be that these firms were merely greedy and trying to make as much money as possible.

But the more confusion and distrust that can be sown in some areas the better.

Most of what the west might be selling to Russia (which we could hack) say network kit, is made in China! and in any case would take an age to put in undetectable f/w and h/w... plus secure stuff is often older, so it doesn't need f/w fixes for bugs.

I would prefer Russia to run out of money and not be able to produce munitions.

RedToothBrush · 12/04/2022 18:40

Remember how Belarus was going to join the war?

Yesterday:
Phillips P OBrien@phillipspobrien
Belarus opposition figures are now making calls for a movement to overthrow Lukashenko. This could be important.

If the people of Belarus want their own insurgency, would very much be in Ukraine’s interest to support with real aid and expertise. They even have a fighting unit of Belarus volunteers.

With the Russian Army so damaged and preoccupied, a strong uprising might topple Lukashenko. This would be transformative. Putin’s whole (failing) strategy seemed to be based on annexing Ukraine and Belarus into a greater Russia.

If Belarus rises up and overthrows the government, Putin has no path even to a limited victory.

Then today:
Phillips P OBrien@phillipspobrien
Addition to the Belarus thread. Reports that the Belarus army is digging in tanks on the Ukrainian border. Not a large number and in a defensive posture. More likely nervous about Ukraine than any plan to attack.

Natsku · 12/04/2022 18:41

Oh wow, good luck to the Belarus opposition!

RedToothBrush · 12/04/2022 18:54

There's been a few videos over the last few days of how men are being forcable taken in the DPR by Russian soldiers

meduza.io/feature/2022/04/12/vseh-muzhchin-puskayut-na-pushechnoe-myaso
“All men are allowed to be cannon fodder” Many residents of the DPR have been hiding from forced mobilization for war for 50 days. Here is the story of one of them

I'm afraid to talk about myself. But in short, I'm twenty-two years old. Last year I graduated from the university, but I won’t say who I studied for for security reasons. Born in Lugansk, but spent all his life in Donetsk. We have a small city - even what I said, with all the vagueness, may be enough for me to be identified. I agreed to give an interview out of desperation. I don't see life here.

And

Because of the massive conscription [to the war], virtually the entire male population, regardless of loyalty or political persuasion, is now simply hiding. Everyone is sitting at home. Nobody goes out [on the street]. None. The call affects everyone under the age of sixty. My father is only fifty-two, he hides with his parents at home.

Now there are rumors that door-to-door rounds have begun. It's not even a matter of subpoenas, and it's not about catching those who got caught on the street. They [representatives of the DPR] go from house to house. I don't know if they're breaking down the doors or not, but they're looking for conscripts. Therefore, every time when male voices, steps and the like are heard, it is very alarming

And

I hide alone. Once a week, either my mother, or a girl, or a grandmother come to me. The neighbors were told that I had moved out, and they just come to my apartment to clean up. They bring me food, we talk for about an hour. Previously, they came more often, once every two days, but over time, the number of commandant's offices increased, the number of shelling increased, and relatives had to cut the number of visits. You have to do this during the morning rush hour, when it is more difficult to track down an individual car on the street. Otherwise, they will ask questions, check phones.

And

Already a lot of people have been taken. For example, all students - they were called up under the threat of immediate expulsion at the very beginning of the war. And at the enterprises they took documents and created lists [subject to conscription]. My friend's father has diabetes and is in the hospital. They constantly come there and try to get him discharged and sent to the front. The man is fifty-something years old. They don't give a damn about his diabetes.

Recently, my uncle, who works in one of the state structures of Luhansk, called me and said that the command of the Russian troops was allegedly dissatisfied with the recruitment of conscripts from Donetsk - that they feel sorry for the locals and do not take as much as they could, they do not fit into the quota. He warned me to hide even more.

And

Everything feels like a bad dream that has no beginning and no end. We exist automatically. Sometimes, well, they'll bring something delicious to eat. And that's not how distractions work. My friend says he drinks. He lives in the suburbs, his girlfriend brings him food. Drinks every day to comfort himself. From communication with him, I got the impression that he went crazy.

I don't get along with alcohol, so I just sit. I lost contact with almost everyone today. I hope that the people who live here can, if not live at home in peace, at least be able to escape. Even this is a privilege that most of the population does not have.

Saltedeggplant · 12/04/2022 19:05

but sadly it feels more likely it was because they were hoping things might blow over before they had to go through the effort of pulling out.
I agree, considering Nokias shitty history in Iran and more recently the links to uygur forced labour, I think it's likely they just hoped it would blow over, these corporations do not care what disgusting regimes they trade with as long as they can get a profit.

I hope Belarus gets their uprising and freedom, as they should have had it in 2020 but it will be a great blow to Russia too, bye bye Putin's useless idiot, you won't be missed and no more Belarus as a staging ground

Ijsbear · 12/04/2022 19:06

@Natsku

Oh yeah that report earlier about Russia moving military stuff near the Finnish border, was just coastal defence systems that get moved about from time to time. Some major general in the Finnish army was on the news saying its really nothing at all.
Phew.
Ijsbear · 12/04/2022 19:10

Now if Japan decided to take action over the Kurils ... dreams

PestorPeston · 12/04/2022 19:16

IJS theowp.org/russia-stops-wwii-peace-treaty-talks-with-japan-over-sanctions
You have to remember that Japan and Russia are still officially at war.

DGRossetti · 12/04/2022 19:22

I am under no illusions that it was worship of mammon that kept Nokia (for example) in Russia so long. I would imagine that is exactly what the Russian leadership Putin thinks too.

However, there is the 1% chance it wasn't. And it's that 1% that can fuck up an already paranoid mind.

The more open chatter there is on what may -or may not be - happening or reasons for happening the better. It's more noise to hide the truth. Putin may struggle with calling this a war, but - much like pornography - the rest of the world knows what it is when it sees it.

The truth is so precious it must be protected with a bodyguard of lies, as that great wartime leader Boris Johnson will never be said.

Ijsbear · 12/04/2022 19:25

^Christo Grozev
@christogrozev
Zelensky's official telegram account announces that SBU caught the fugitive oligarch and Putin's close friend Viktor Medvedchuk. Camouflage and all^

Apparently Putin is godfather to Medvedchuk's youngest daughter. He was under house arrest but escaped 4 days after the invasion began.

Saltedeggplant · 12/04/2022 19:26

I lauged that zelenskiy called this a special operation by the security service of Ukraine www.instagram.com/p/CcQqp2IoqbQ/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=

(safe for work) it's just a picture of a captured putin puppet medvedchuk

Saltedeggplant · 12/04/2022 19:27

Oops I cross post with you there ljs!

Ijsbear · 12/04/2022 19:28

I wonder if he was found hiding in a culvert Salted :)

RedToothBrush · 12/04/2022 19:32

Tim White @TWMCltd
#Ukraine's deputy PM says Russia is still blocking humanitarian corridors from 3 towns.

Iryna Vereshchuk reports 2,600 evacuees managed to leave hotspots today including 208 from #Mariupol.

However convoys of buses were blocked from leaving #Berdyansk, #Tokmak and #Enerhodar.

They blocked the buses to Mariupol again then.

Incredible that people are still getting out of Mariupol by car though even if its just a small number.

TiddyTidTwo · 12/04/2022 19:50

What the actual fuck is he on about?!

twitter.com/ari_adion/status/1513951679141531652?s=21&t=IPMbzRVhrD-lAb4NAnSG9A

RedToothBrush · 12/04/2022 19:51

More on the British fighter forced to surrender:

From January:
www.buzzfeednews.com/article/christopherm51/russia-invade-ukraine-western-fighters-nato
NATO Won’t Put Troops In Ukraine, But Western Foreigners Are Volunteering To Join The Fight Against Russia
Fighters from the US and the European Union are signing up to fight in Ukraine against Russia. “Ukrainians are fighting for what America was fighting for — freedom.”

Aslin, who has served with Ukraine's marines since September 2018 and just extended his contract for a fourth year, is one of the thousands of foreign fighters who have flocked to Ukraine since the war began in 2014 to fight for one side or the other. Most of them have been Russians and citizens of other former Soviet republics, and most joined unofficial volunteer units.

And

The Ukrainian military has made little effort on its own to recruit them, instead letting any interested foreigners simply come or leaving it to word of mouth. (Ukraine did, however, adopt legislation in 2015 allowing foreigners to officially serve in its regular armed forces, and it created a path to citizenship for those who complete a three-year contract.)

And

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense and General Staff of the Armed Forces declined to comment on their recruiting efforts and the number of foreigners currently enlisted in the country’s armed forces. But a press officer for the Joint Forces Operation, as the military’s operation in eastern Ukraine is known, told BuzzFeed News that two British men, including Aslin, and one American man were serving in the area. The press officer said they were of value to their units due to their previous military experience, even if some of it was not in official military structures, and that their presence helped keep up the morale of their Ukrainian comrades.

And

Applications for foreigners to join the official military have taken up to four months to process in the past, but Aslin said it was recently streamlined. On his Instagram account, where he goes by the name CossackGundi (a mashup of the Ukrainian term for the warriors who roamed its steppe lands and a Kurdish term for villager, which he picked up while fighting for two years alongside the Kurds against ISIS in Syria), he regularly shares photos and videos from the front line with his 30,000 followers.

And

Aslin, whose youthful face is hidden behind a full beard, agreed. But the fight for him is also personal. While here, he met a Ukrainian woman, and they’re now engaged. When his contract expires late this spring, he hopes to settle in a nearby city and start a life in Ukraine. And that is what’s motivating him right now as Russia threatens a new invasion.

So in this case, the guy had been in Ukraine a long time, was eligible for Ukrainian citizenship, was settled in Ukraine and was in a relationship with a Ukrainian and was part of the official Ukrainian Army.

In theory this means he should get POW status unlike some other foreign fighters.

He is high profile by the look of it too; that might help to keep him alive but he's almost certainly going to be a target to use for Russian propaganda. He's going to be valued by the Russians - and he was clearly valued by the Ukrainians.

RedToothBrush · 12/04/2022 20:00

[quote TiddyTidTwo]What the actual fuck is he on about?!

twitter.com/ari_adion/status/1513951679141531652?s=21&t=IPMbzRVhrD-lAb4NAnSG9A[/quote]
He is on about the latest Russian conspiracy theory.

They are saying that Bucha was faked by British Intelligence Services to frame Russia.

It relates to this:
twitter.com/francska1/status/1513811973955280897

Russian TV put out a programme which is called something along the lines of 'anti-fake' which is supposed to bust conspiracy theories. But like FoxNews is actually the one pushing this utter nonsense to a receptive audience.

So thats where its coming from.

Of course, they'd love nothing more that a British Solider to parade to the public right now...

Ijsbear · 12/04/2022 20:01

www.strategypage.com/htmw/htwin/20220411.aspx

Been wondering why the Russian army don't have many NCOs

This article suggests it's because the government wanted decision-makers in charge who'd been vetted for correct political thinking, which was mostly officers.

Politics > pragmatism.

RedToothBrush · 12/04/2022 21:00

This is a shift. Expectation of a long war:

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2
BREAKING: The U.S. says it will be willing to send Ukraine more weapons systems even if they require training to operate

It appears as if the Switchblade drone transfer helped move U.S. policy in this direction, and that the U.S. is finally preparing its military assistance for the reality of a longer war in Ukraine. Lithuania's training proposal got a big win from this too.

UK also announced training today. So lots of training planned.

MagicFox · 12/04/2022 21:06

How does this expectation of a long war sit with the feted May 9th deadline? Also, how long does 'long war' imply? It all seems so intense that a long war contained to ukraine just doesn't sound imaginable. Usual caveat to please excuse my ignorance here

TargusEasting · 12/04/2022 21:07

More an unwinding than a shift.