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Ukraine Invasion: Part 20

997 replies

HappyWinter · 11/04/2022 21:30

Thanks to everyone for taking part in the thread.

OP posts:
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51
RedToothBrush · 12/04/2022 10:53

@ScrollingLeaves

ScrollingLeaves *@thereisonlyoneofme*

Its hard to believe that all this is happening again after the last World War

Yes, and what is happening and the powerlessness against it makes it difficult to believe in anything again.

This really needs to be caveated with in Europe genocide has happened many times since WW2

Yes, you are right.

Its happened in Europe in the 1990s. Can we please not forget one too? Its getting very depressing how there is this vacuum of memory / general knowledge over it on these threads.

Indeed the US put sanctions on a number of people yesterday over Bosnia following an uptick in efforts to undermine Bosnian democracy. This was quickly followed by the UK doing the same and making a symbolic point to go further that the Dayton Agreement...

This follows Serbia making a point of importing anti aircraft weapons the day before.

I'm a long term follower of Jamin Mujanovic on twitter who is excellent on Bosnia and the principles of democracy (in the same vein of Zelensky)

Jasmin Mujanovic @jasminmuj
The UK’s decision to impose sanctions on secessionist actors in Bosnia is a transformative moment, not for just the UK-BiH relationship, but for BiH’s position w/in the new European security paradigm. The normative weight of what the Johnson govt has done cannot be overstated.

That is not to undersell significance of the U.S. “first mover” role. It’s fair to say if there had been no U.S. sanctions vs. Dodik in 2017 already, the UK may well not have acted here either. But the UK didn’t just become first state to join the American blacklist vs. Dodik.

The UK actually expanded the U.S. sanctions by adding Cvijanovic, the RS entity Pres. That’s a “first mover” initiative all of its own. Whitehall did something, in other words, the U.S. has not done. Folks really need to be appreciative of how significant that is for UK-BiH ties.

Sarajevo now has three tasks: I. double down on this historic breakthrough in the UK. Organize routine visits to the UK, and likewise organize visits by leading UK officials & community ldrs to BiH. Some of that is happening, but work to expand it maximally.

II. Make a comprehensive accounting of every key figure in UK Parliament, civil service, academic & civil society communities who helped deliver this breakthrough & make sure they are acknowledged in BiH — formally and w/ maximum pomp.

III. Finally, when next interacting w/ other European officials, play up the significance of UK’s leadership here. Several EU govts are on record as saying they were considering sanctioning Dodik. Ask them clearly: U.S. & UK have acted — why haven’t you? Press the advantage. /x

I post this here although its not entirely relevant to Russia - you really don't need to know who these people are, because it offers a fascinating incite into how the UK is leading in terms of diplomacy and sanctions and how its working with the US and others which is relevant to Russia. (Note: its not always the UK doing the leading - far from it, at times we too are hesitant. Poland and others like the Czechs are also doing it to effectively egg everyone on too - and Zelensky has seen how targeting this is effectively making a competition between countries to do the right thing / send aid)

He has also made a another very relevant point from his understanding of Bosnia to whats happening in Russia thats really important:

Jasmin Mujanovic @jasminmuj
I warned a few days ago that atrocity glorification would co-exist w/ atrocity denial in the context of Russia's aggression in Ukraine, as it has viz the Bosnian Genocide. And here it is. Paint by numbers horror.

Xena @xenasolo
Pro-russian telegram channels are posting samples of Bucha Massacre-themed merch. It says “Bucha Massacre: we can do it again” (we can do it again/repeat is a popular rus slogan often used in the context of WWII — for instance, “we reached Berlin once, we can do it again”).

People in the comments are ecstatic and continue comparing Ukrainians to pigs. Someone is asking “Where can I buy one?”

If you are familiar with Nazi propaganda and the dehumanisation of the jews, this is very very similar.

There is a pattern we can see and understand. We haven't forgotten it from WWII. I'd argue many never learned it in the first place. Genocide is something that only happened in WWII, or happens in places where people are all uncivilised anyway and 'what, Bosnia is in Europe, its not really Europe is it'? in the minds of far too many.

Its symptomatic of ideological supremacy. That makes it significant in the context of war. There is demonising your enemy and then there is dehumanisating your enemy. The two serve different propaganda and motivational purposes.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 20
DuncinToffee · 12/04/2022 10:54

@RedToothBrush

Jimmy *@jimmysecuk* Damn. Looks very much like a Ukrainian cross border raid blew up a Russian railway bridge in Belgorod.
Governor of Russian Belgorod oblast is confirming damage to Russian railroad tracks near Ukrainian border twitter.com/dalperovitch/status/1513790391082008580?s=21
Igotjelly · 12/04/2022 11:02

@RedToothBrush excellent post.

DGRossetti · 12/04/2022 11:04

because it offers a fascinating incite into how the UK is leading in terms of diplomacy and sanctions and how its working with the US and others which is relevant to Russia. (Note: its not always the UK doing the leading - far from it, at times we too are hesitant. Poland and others like the Czechs are also doing it to effectively egg everyone on too - and Zelensky has seen how targeting this is effectively making a competition between countries to do the right thing / send aid)

But that is how unions and alliances work. With each actor egging the remainder on you can achieve a pretty devastating position very quickly. As long as each actor sees themselves as part of the union and doesn't have deranged idiots like Stanley Johnson making decreasingly less sense about anything.

And that's a union and alliance that Putin by definition is unable to confront. Because he has no frame of reference. It's not the way Russia has ever done things. It's telling he had another toys and pram moment to embarrass himself over Sweden and Finland and NATO yesterday.

I'm vaguely reminded that my DF would add £10 every time someone argued over a quote.

ScrollingLeaves · 12/04/2022 11:07

Re: forgetting about or being blind to all the post war genocides, including in Bosnia because ‘It’s not really Europe”, because they did not feel so much on our doorstep

Its symptomatic of ideological supremacy.

Yes it is indeed. But the too complacent feeling that ‘here’ was different enough, has been common I think among many like me, toddling through life. Now it cannot be anymore I don’t think.

Igotjelly · 12/04/2022 11:11

When I woke up this morning to all the calls for NATO to act over, as yet unconfirmed, report of chemical weapon use it really made me think. I still shudder when I think about the pictures out of Syria, of children foaming at the mouths because of Russian chemical weapons. We did absolutely nothing then, it barely made headline for a week.

Igotjelly · 12/04/2022 11:13

Little more info coming out, any thoughts on what would cause these sorts of symptoms?

Ukraine Invasion: Part 20
RedToothBrush · 12/04/2022 11:26

@DGRossetti

because it offers a fascinating incite into how the UK is leading in terms of diplomacy and sanctions and how its working with the US and others which is relevant to Russia. (Note: its not always the UK doing the leading - far from it, at times we too are hesitant. Poland and others like the Czechs are also doing it to effectively egg everyone on too - and Zelensky has seen how targeting this is effectively making a competition between countries to do the right thing / send aid)

But that is how unions and alliances work. With each actor egging the remainder on you can achieve a pretty devastating position very quickly. As long as each actor sees themselves as part of the union and doesn't have deranged idiots like Stanley Johnson making decreasingly less sense about anything.

And that's a union and alliance that Putin by definition is unable to confront. Because he has no frame of reference. It's not the way Russia has ever done things. It's telling he had another toys and pram moment to embarrass himself over Sweden and Finland and NATO yesterday.

I'm vaguely reminded that my DF would add £10 every time someone argued over a quote.

Quite honestly, its good to seem some good functional diplomacy in action!

Its good to see the UK working well with others and to encourage others - and to recognise that difference and nationhood being distinct is an asset not an obstacle.

We've not seen a lot of that in recent years...

WeAreTheHeroes · 12/04/2022 11:28

I think forgetting the genocide perpetrated by the Bosnian Serbs is more due to ignorance of it having happened for many people rather than thinking war in the former Yugoslavia wasn't in Europe.

DrBlackbird · 12/04/2022 11:33

Governor of Russian Belgorod oblast is confirming damage to Russian railroad tracks near Ukrainian border
twitter.com/dalperovitch/status/1513790391082008580?s=

Completely understandable that Ukrainian forces carried this out. Trying to stop the resupply to Russian forces in Ukraine. You even kind of want to cheer Ukraine on… but doesn’t such action risk even greater retaliation? Provide more ‘justification’ to the Russian people by saying ‘look we’re being attacked on Russian soil’?

Yes, I know, how much worse could Russia be to Ukrainians… but I fear the answer to that could be much much worse.

And so hard to get my head around the jubilant purchase of merchandise that celebrates mass murder.

HappyWinter · 12/04/2022 11:33

I'm glad the UK is working well together with other countries to help Ukraine. Apart from all the issues and delays with refugees getting visas, we've been good on supplying weapons and diplomacy.

I remember Bosnia, a few of the people I later studied or worked with had fled in the war. It's awful that it is happening again.

OP posts:
DGRossetti · 12/04/2022 11:37

You even kind of want to cheer Ukraine on… but doesn’t such action risk even greater retaliation?

Maybe UA is at the point where that's meaningless ?

DrBlackbird · 12/04/2022 11:39

Reports of chemical poisoning delivered by a Russian drone is horrific. Is this a shift in tactics aiming to reduce Russian casualties and preserve military equipment? Just send drone after drone?

blueshoes · 12/04/2022 11:42

@DGRossetti

You even kind of want to cheer Ukraine on… but doesn’t such action risk even greater retaliation?

Maybe UA is at the point where that's meaningless ?

DGRossetti That would be right.

Ukraine wanted NATO in Ukraine since the start. Russian retaliation has not been a concern to the extent that Ukraine knew what Russia would do to them, their civilians and cities which has now come to pass.

DGRossetti · 12/04/2022 11:44

I'm glad the UK is working well together with other countries to help Ukraine. Apart from all the issues and delays with refugees getting visas, we've been good on supplying weapons and diplomacy.

Well the diplomacy is good for dragging things out allowing the UK to flog more battle tested weapons to appalling regimes.

Not quite sure why I find it impossible to view anything the UK does through an uncorrupted prism. There must be a reason.

RedToothBrush · 12/04/2022 11:44

@Igotjelly

When I woke up this morning to all the calls for NATO to act over, as yet unconfirmed, report of chemical weapon use it really made me think. I still shudder when I think about the pictures out of Syria, of children foaming at the mouths because of Russian chemical weapons. We did absolutely nothing then, it barely made headline for a week.
Watching one of the videos from Mariupol from soliders this morning (the one which reportedly features some of those directly affected by the alleged chemical weapons) its worth reflecting on what they themselves said:

Why is it that the world wakes up and suddenly demands NATO do something at the slightest mention of chemical weapons, when you look at what has happened for weeks in Mariupol and how many citizens have been murdered, raped, deported etc etc by conventional warfare?

Why doesn't the world sit up and pay attention to that?

In terms of how the West sees war and 'acceptability' it is very telling. It runs alongside my grips about arguing over the definition of genocide.

Its purely political to avoid needing to take action.

These 'red lines' are ways, not to measure when we MUST intervene; they are ways to avoid intervention and to ignore the problem. As long as you don't kill a dozen people with chemical weapons, you just crack on with as many systematical killing of civilians as you can cos thats fine as long as you don't have a manual, manifesto and signed list of orders to wipe out a group...

There are far too many who are happy to sit and watch as long as it isn't them. It reminds me of Germany in WWII.

Such apathy doesn't turn up the political pressure on what we can do in reasonable terms. The focus is always on what we cannot do despite what we see happening.

It has to be said in terms of the change in political pressure and the shifting goalposts on tanks is fascinating... And them bloody MiGs (I've seen rumours about the Ukrainians being able to suddenly 'restore ones' that they had mysteriously 'forgotten they had'. Whether they are true or not, its impossible to say, but it wouldn't surprise me).

There is definitely more that could be done without WWIII. Active choices not to are being made though.

RedToothBrush · 12/04/2022 11:58

Patrick Wintour @patrickwintour
In Marine Le Pen’s defence program she turns her back on US and EU & instead rests much on building partnerships with 2 countries - Russia & the U.K (hence the Union Jack flying in her manifesto). Quite legitimate for UK PM to tell her no alliance with Putinists will be on offer.

RedToothBrush · 12/04/2022 12:06

The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent
CNN: Large Russian military column spotted heading to Donbas.

CNN geolocated a video showing a group of Russian military vehicles near Russia’s Matveev Kurgan, a settlement in the Rostov region.

The vehicles were seen facing northwest, in the direction of Ukraine’s Donbas.

Phillips P OBrien @phillipspobrien
More logistics, this report is actually good news for Ukraine. At worst signs that the Russians have not been able to get rail lines working into Ukraine in south east (which they’ve controlled for a while) and at best a sign that the Ukrainians are attacking rail lines here too.

This column of heavy vehicles has been geolocated to Matveev Kurgan. This is about 10 kilometres inside Russia.

So that means they are using road and not rail still in Russia. That’s good for Ukraine. Road means slower, less efficient buildup with longer fuel lines, etc. the town mentioned is marked with a red marker in this map.

Btw those vehicles have tires, yes, that doesn’t make them light vehicles. They are a combination of large military trucks and fighting vehicles. They would ideally be transferred by rail as close to the fighting as possible.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-61074826?at_custom3=Regional+BBC+North+West&at_custom2=twitter&at_campaign=64&at_custom4=FA140C10-BA4F-11EC-B507-3D3B0EDC252D&at_medium=custom7&at_custom1=link
Russians in Rochdale need protection, councillor says

He told the meeting: "I have had contact from Russian citizens that live in the borough to say they need protection, because they are getting abuse in the street and the kids are getting abuse in schools because they are from Russian stock."

This is the second article ive read with a similar story about harassment of children in the uk.

strawberriesarenot · 12/04/2022 12:16

Europe must stop using Russian energy. Couldn't there be a war time rationing of energy across all of us to support Germany from falling into complete recession? Even in the UK, where we don't use Russian oil directly, if rationing were introduced that would leave more free to go to Europe. It might only need to be for the summer.

Shuuu · 12/04/2022 12:16

Apologies if been reported.

Russia has moved heavy military equipment to the Finnish border.

This is now beyond ridiculous

DrBlackbird · 12/04/2022 12:16

Maybe UA is at the point where that's meaningless?

Yes, agree that Ukrainian forces probably feel this given the destruction and viciousness of Russian forces, what possibly else could they do. That’s understandable. I’m wondering if there is even worse retaliation.

However, Ukrainians probably do feel they’ve got nothing left to lose and being on the offensive puts them more into a position of control.

RedToothBrush · 12/04/2022 12:19

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/12/russia-using-weapons-smuggled-by-iran-from-iraq-against-ukraine
Russia ‘using weapons smuggled by Iran from Iraq against Ukraine’
Iraqi militias and others say undercover networks being used to supply materiel such as RPGs and anti-tank missiles

Iraq has hosted US and western troops since the 2003 overthrow of Saddam Hussein, and the US has trained and supplied various Iraqi army and special forces units to defend the Baghdad government against insurgencies. After two decades of war, the country is awash with weaponry.

Much of it has passed legally into the hands of Iran-backed Shia militias, which are opposed to the US presence in the country, but since 2016 have been officially incorporated into the Iraqi armed forces as part of the fight against Islamic State.

DrBlackbird · 12/04/2022 12:20

In Marine Le Pen’s defence program she turns her back on US and EU & instead rests much on building partnerships with 2 countries - Russia & the U.K (hence the Union Jack flying in her manifesto).

Not exactly a resounding endorsement of Johnson’s politics. Let’s not forget his welcome to Orban last year as one of the first EU leaders to visit post Brexit.

DGRossetti · 12/04/2022 12:25

@strawberriesarenot

Europe must stop using Russian energy. Couldn't there be a war time rationing of energy across all of us to support Germany from falling into complete recession? Even in the UK, where we don't use Russian oil directly, if rationing were introduced that would leave more free to go to Europe. It might only need to be for the summer.
Could we ramp up North Sea Gas ?
Ijsbear · 12/04/2022 12:27

Completely understandable that Ukrainian forces carried this out. Trying to stop the resupply to Russian forces in Ukraine. You even kind of want to cheer Ukraine on… but doesn’t such action risk even greater retaliation? Provide more ‘justification’ to the Russian people by saying ‘look we’re being attacked on Russian soil’?

Russia has been doing false-flag operations for some time. Russians in Ukrainian uniform carrying out attacks on Russians in Ukraine and possibly elsewhere, to justify going in 'to protect our Russians'. Pile of info here www.bbc.com/news/world-60434579

So if the Ukrainians really have gone and blown up a railway used to bring Russian armaments into Ukraine, it doesn't matter. According to Russia media (!) there have been piles of other attacks.