Ukraine Invasion: Part 20

[HappyWinter]

Thanks to everyone for taking part in the thread.

Horrific scenes, unimaginable hell the Ukrainians are being put through,
I also believe there is a huge amount we don't know, and our Defence are making decisions accordingly, which we don't know the half of

Defenders of Mariupol from the 36th Marine Brigade said they were holding the city's defense to the last.

"We are the defenders of Mariupol, the 36th Marine Brigade, which has kept and is defending this city to the last. We did not give up positions, we kept every piece of this city to the best of our ability. But the reality is that the city was under siege, in a ring, and no supply of ammunition, food did not happen.

We are grateful to every Ukrainian who believed in the Marines and continues to believe! We have endured this faith for so long! We did not leave our positions, we remained faithful! Glory to Ukraine, "the fighter said.

My friend in Odesa just sent this. He said the soldiers will die soon as they are unable to get food or ammunition now.

*Goes to pray for miracles

.

Ukrainian forces seem to be making steady advances in the South. See blue areas of map. Working down the roads towards Nova Kakhovka seems feasible. It is mostly cultivated steppe with villages and small towns along the roads. It is exposed though and whoever has the upper hand in the air can disrupt the other side.

Kherson is a sizeable city. I do not currently see it being taken. Looped around to cut off the single bridge perhaps. The river is I think the limit of any advance on this front unless there is a Russian collapse.

Map I failed to post.

@topsyturvypants

Horrific scenes, unimaginable hell the Ukrainians are being put through, I also believe there is a huge amount we don't know, and our Defence are making decisions accordingly, which we don't know the half of

I think you are right and I take comfort from that.

Ukraine deputy foreign minister says weapon may have been phosperhous. While it is a chemical (correct me if I'm wrong) wouldn't be classed as a chemical WMD and is actually used in war by other countries?

I had contact with my relative on the south side of the Dnieper this morning. See image. Nikolaev = Mykolaiv depending on language.

Our subsequent discussion was 'family stuff' and looking to a better future. I am really not sure what future they have though. I'm going to get on with a busy work day, but the war will be on my mind.

Defence minister sorry not Deputy foreign minister.

It very much looks like surrenders are happening in Mariupol. This in the last couple of hours:

Bel Trew @beltrew (International correspondent for the independent)
This is a British citizen fighting with the Ukrainian military saying he and his unit has surrendered to the Russians in Mariupol as they ran out of food and ammunition. We’ve already had reports of this. Last night Azov claimed “poisonous substance” dropped by drone on Mariupol

Cossackgundi @cossackgundi
We've gotten word from Johnny. "It's been 48 days, we tried our best to defend Mariupol but we have no choice but to surrender to Russian forces. We have no food and no ammunition. It's been a pleasure everyone, I hope this war ends soon."

We're putting this out after direct consultation with his family. Until we're told otherwise we'll continue working on sharing the facts of the war. Hope for a prisoner exchange.

Ukraine Maps @mapsukraine
Phonecall between the British mercenary 'cossackgundi' and his friend moments before surrendering (he's crying and emotional because he knows he'll spend the rest of his life in prison):

This phone-call alone has gotten us interesting information:

- Situation in Mariupol is freaking bad for them
- No ammo, no food and no options
- They have been trying to escape from Mariupol for 3 weeks now by dressing up as civilians
- Chechenphobia is a thing

It is also possible that Syria will request his (cossackgundi) extradition because of his illegal activities within the sovereignty of the Syrian Arabic Republic.

The Russians have previously put out a statement saying foreign fighters will not receive POW status as they are outside the Geneva Convention.

This from last night:
The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent
Vereshchuk: 1,700 Ukrainian soldiers and civilians are held by Russian forces.

Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said that 500 of those are women.

“They force them to stand, don’t let them sit down. They shave their heads, they force them to undress every day for checkups. I know facts of rape, I saw spines that had been beaten,” she said. The Kyiv Independent couldn't immediately confirm these claims.

If thats how they are treating those under the Geneva Convention....

@MMBaranova

How difficult for you, thoughts are with you and your family members

@toastfiend

Can we please be a bit mindful of posting links to photos of dead children?

I realise the caption was "this is heartbreaking" but that doesn't really cover it.

Agreed. I didn't click on the link because I suspected what it might contain. I don't need to see photos of dead people - man, woman or child, to be horrified by what's going on.

Last night's ISW report:

Key Takeaways

Russian Commander of the Southern Military District Army General Alexander Dvornikov is the natural choice to take overall command of Russian operations in Ukraine. There is no reason to suppose Dvornikov was selected for any particular skills or experience, nor is there reason to think the conduct of the Russian war effort will materially change more than it was already changing due to the Russian abandonment of northeastern Ukraine and focus on the east.
Russian forces may have used chemical weapons against Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol, though ISW cannot independently verify Ukrainian claims at this time.
Russian forces failed to make significant advances in continued assaults on Severodonetsk, Popasna, and Rubizhne in eastern Ukraine.
Russian forces continued to amass troops in Kharkiv Oblast to reinforce offensive operations on the Izyum axis and conducted several minor attacks.

I think (hope) the west is too invested now to do anything other than pile weapons into (pr send nato into) Ukraine. I’ve seeb numerous discussions about genocide, and about China. China cannot outright Condem putins genocide as to do so would mean they have to admit to their own ongoing genocide. The best we can hope for is that they don’t outright join or resupply arms to him. With both of them being permanent members of the UN the UN is powerless to do anything about either genocide.

A couple of observations made by a war studies student from testamonies

Rob Lee @RALee55
"The villagers tell stories of soldiers and commanders making ethical choices inside a lawless military structure that expected nothing of them. One type of soldier killed and ransacked their homes, they say, stealing expensive laptop computers, alcohol"
From this article about near Chernihiv
www.economist.com/europe/2022/04/11/a-ukrainian-village-tries-to-make-sense-of-russian-occupation

The above articles should be approached with full caution. They are not pleasant at all.

They are necessary journalism, but they do describe some of the most appalling stories.

Someone told me this morning that 100,000 Ukrainians had been deported to Siberia ? Not seen anything myself. All the people sent to Russia will be hostages for whatever Europe try to do. Its hard to believe that all this is happening again after the last World War

The re were reports Russians opened humanitarian corridors that led one way - to Russia. You have to stay at least 2 years.

From the Times: A “Stalinist” mass purge of Russian secret intelligence is under way after more than 100 agents were removed from their jobs and the head of the department responsible for Ukraine was sent to prison.

In a sign of President Putin’s fury over the failures of the invasion, about 150 Federal Security Bureau (FSB) officers have been dismissed, including some who have been arrested.

and a comment from @PhillipsPOBrien
Putin now charging people left and right with embezzlement. The weirdest delusion he seems to be labouring under is that while he actually established an inefficient, corrupt, kleptocracy, that when war came his state would fight like Sparta.

edition.cnn.com/2022/04/11/investing/russia-default-sp/index.html
Russia has defaulted on its foreign debt, says S&P

Russia attempted to pay in rubles for two dollar-denominated bonds that matured on April 4, S&P said in a note on Friday. The agency said this amounted to a "selective default" because investors are unlikely to be able to convert the rubles into "dollars equivalent to the originally due amounts."

According to S&P, a selective default is declared when an entity has defaulted on a specific obligation but not its entire debt.

Moscow has a grace period of 30 days from April 4 to make the payments of capital and interest, but S&P said it does not expect it will convert them into dollars given Western sanctions that undermine its "willingness and technical abilities to honor the terms and conditions" of its obligations.

And

Russia has gone to great lengths to artificially prop up the ruble — which sank by as much as 40% to less than one US cent in the days after the invasion — including by hiking interest rates to 20%, and by forcing exporters to swap most of their foreign currency revenues for rubles.

That measure is still in place but the central bank has decided to relax some other restrictions, Reuters reported Monday, and last week announced that it was cutting interest rates to 17%.

The ruble was trading at 79 to the US dollar on Monday, according to data from Refinitiv. That's about 5% weaker than on Saturday.

@thereisonlyoneofme

Its hard to believe that all this is happening again after the last World War

Yes, and what is happening and the powerlessness against it makes it difficult to believe in anything again.

Jimmy @jimmysecuk
Damn. Looks very much like a Ukrainian cross border raid blew up a Russian railway bridge in Belgorod.

[quote ScrollingLeaves]@thereisonlyoneofme

Its hard to believe that all this is happening again after the last World War

Yes, and what is happening and the powerlessness against it makes it difficult to believe in anything again.[/quote]
This really needs to be caveated with in Europe genocide has happened many times since WW2.

ScrollingLeaves
@thereisonlyoneofme

Its hard to believe that all this is happening again after the last World War

Yes, and what is happening and the powerlessness against it makes it difficult to believe in anything again.

This really needs to be caveated with in Europe genocide has happened many times since WW2

Yes, you are right.

Factbox: Who is buying Russian crude oil and who has stopped | Reuter's

www.reuters.com/business/energy/who-is-still-buying-russian-crude-oil-2022-03-21/