Ukraine Invasion: Part 20

[HappyWinter]

Thanks to everyone for taking part in the thread.

MMBaranova thanks for the link to the Oryx article. That makes for sobering reading.

It seems to me that Russia was not able to get its advanced military kit to work properly because corruption makes you good at stealing, hiding and destroying things but not so good for building things that work and developing people who are skilled and motivated. Military equipment is presumably more high tech these days and you need to invest in education and people to run an innovative high tech and complex defence industry.

I recall learning in Economics 101 that corruption could result in inefficient allocation of resources but man, this seems to be the understatement of the year when applied to Russia's attempt at modernising its army over the last 2 decades.

The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent
Zelensky estimates up to 3,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed during the war.

In an interview with CNN on April 15, President Volodymyr Zelensky compared these numbers to Russia’s, an estimated 19,000 to 20,000 soldiers killed.

^Zelensky added that around 10,000 Ukrainian troops have been injured and that it’s “hard to say how many will survive.”
Source: CNN^

I'm sure we will see an analysis of this.

Personally I don't think its in Ukraine's self interest to underplay these numbers.

I would caution that civilians who may try to defend their homes possibly may be unofficially combatants so thats where you might hit a grey area between soliders officially on the books and civilians.

We also do have to consider the number of civilians killed. And the number of POWs there currently are.

But 3,000 dead with 10000 injured compared to the numbers for Russia, is a hell of a lot, but its a lot less than I think has been feared. The ratio suggests medical assistance is reasonable as its in line with expectations too.

I lean towards believing it as credible because a) they didn't have to release these numbers b) Zelensky has made a point about transparency on certain things - it makes no sense to lie about this in that context c) its thought the Russian loss estimates from Ukraine are probably there, or thereabouts d) there is good propaganda to be gained from this, if accurate because it is substantially better than the Russian numbers. As awful as everyone one of those deaths is, it's still a much lower number than Russia and that will be of comfort to those who have lost loved ones. It won't feel as fruitless.

The issue is going to be over how trained soliders are and whether losses have been amongst the most skilled (sounds like thats being taken seriously at least) and where those loses have been. A significant proportion are likely to be from the Mariupol area.

The POW issue sounds problematic too. Again we know there's a substantial number from Mariupol. I don't necessarily buy the Russian figure of 1300 but we do know its upwards of at least 300. We also know of a substantial group who were taken to Belarus (around 300 I think). And there's likely to be a fair few in similar circumstances elsewhere. There have been some prisoner swaps but a couple of thousand POWs in addition to that isn't unreasonable.

We also don't know if MIA are being counted as dead or potential POWs.

Someone was asking about reports of nukes on the Moskva. I wont post the thread this links to but:

Trent Telenko@trenttelenko
<span class="italic">This is a useful thread 🧵running down the report of Moskva having a pair of nukes on the P-1000 ASCM.</span>

<span class="italic">Short form:  Very unlikely w/o further confirmation</span>

Other commentators are saying similar, with the point that Moskva must have had them on board during peace time if it did have them and asking questions about that. If it did have its likely to be no more than 2.

And finally before I try to go back to sleep (I'm completely all over the place atm and its driving me nuts) twitter is promoting washing machine throwing contests to me. This seems to be an organised event for the Guinness World Records. A Lithuanian beat an Icelandic. Bet Russia are gutted.

I actually cannot believe that Mariupol is still holding out, even by the tiniest bit. Nearly 3 days ago now it was being said it would fall within hours. Truly remarkable!

[quote ScrollingLeaves]I am not quite sure from reading this why the gas can’t be turned off, especially as there is mention that the pipelines are difficult to maintain and repair under war conditions, but here is more about it.

Russian gas will continue to flow through Ukraine to Europe - Ukraine's Naftogaz | Reuters

www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-gas-will-continue-flow-through-ukraine-europe-ukraines-naftogaz-2022-03-14/[/quote]
Pipeline also provided Ukraine with a revenue stream of £2 billion in 2020

I recall learning in Economics 101 that corruption could result in inefficient allocation of resources but man, this seems to be the understatement of the year when applied to Russia's attempt at modernising its army over the last 2 decades.

Cronyism also crippled the Nazis. And that was before they began using slave labour - which is even more inefficient.

Just to add to the above about casualties. Russia claims Ukraine has lost 36000 soliders.

Tim White @TWMCltd
Britain's SAS has resumed training #Ukraine's army in #Kyiv region.

@thetimes reports the training in operating equipment has occurred the last two weekends.
Ukraine media are also reporting the story now:
www.unian.net/society/ptrk-nlaw-britaniya-vernula-v-ukrainu-specnazovcev-sas-gotovyat-ukrainskih-voennyh-novosti-ukrainy-11788425.html
According to Captain Yuri Mironenko, about two weeks ago, soldiers of the British Special Air Service (SAS) in Kiev trained the military to use the NLAW anti-tank systems .

Officers from two battalions received military training from the British Special Forces, one last week and the other a week ago.

The British Ministry of Defense refused to confirm the information of Ukrainian commanders, referring to the decision not to comment on such operations.

Instructors from Britain had previously worked with Ukrainian military personnel, but in mid-February, the Ministry of Defense of the kingdom withdrew them . The department then said that in the event of a conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the British would not participate in the battles.

I see Russia is warning the west of "unpredictable consequences" - which given the past 50 days may not quite read as they intended.

But either way, the more they bluster, the more they reveal their poor position in all this. Power is it's own threat.

If there were any way possible, this is the moment we need to cut their oil and gas off. Yes it will hurt, but that's what unions and alliances and friends are for. That could be the blow that shatters Putins glass house.

It's possible the Russian ire with Britain is simply a language thing. When British press openly talk of Putins small penis, and overcompensating, along with all related failures of the Russian military (after all, if your leader can't get it up, how effective can you be ???) the rest of the world can read and understand it almost intuitively. Whereas - and this isn't a dig, just an observation - chatter in other countries in other languages doesn't travel so well.

Not that I give a toss really. Although if Russia is pissed off with the UK now, I'm sure we can do plenty more to pile it on in the coming weeks.

Although if Russia is pissed off with the UK now, I'm sure we can do plenty more to pile it on in the coming weeks.

Britain's SAS has resumed training #Ukraine's army in #Kyiv region

Erica Marat @ericamarat
Kazakhstan won’t hold victory parade on May 9. Significant symbolic gesture that points at how the war in Ukraine undermines Russia-centric view of the Soviet history

In the recent years both Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan were able to turn May 9 into a day of remembrance, more resembling Veterans Day than celebration of the Soviet army.

Kazakhstan has now explained that the May 9 parade is not feasible because the priority is to maintain combat readiness of the armed forces to ensure protection and defense of gov and military facilities. Hands down, this is bold.

Quite a journey for Kazakhstan between calling for CSTO troops in January to siding with the “Russian warship, go f yourself” sentiment

Correct me if I’m wrong: Kazakhstan MoD has basically said that instead of celebrating Soviet Russian May 9 version of the V-day, they are instead preparing for a now plausible Russian “special operation” scenario on their territory

Oh my. Putin will hate this.

@DGRossetti what do you mean by 'may not read as intended' this headline has really frightened me this morning

[quote duvetdrama]@DGRossetti what do you mean by 'may not read as intended' this headline has really frightened me this morning [/quote]
If there is one thing that every single person on this thread can agree with, it's that the last 50 days have certainly had some unpredictable consequences - if you are Russian that is.

And all the last 50 days have show us is that - outside Ukraine - the man with the smallest willy in the world (and it's worth putting that near his name, as Google sees stuff like that and amplifies it) - is, as the vernacular goes "full o'shite". He was blustering "if you this" and "if you that" to the west 50 days ago.

Then his army and plan went to shit.

Now he's blustering again.

You don't need to be a rocket scientist to guess why.

Russia started this 100%. No one on this forum, or in this country apart from Putins paid stooges in politics (and we will hopefully deal with them next) wanted this. But now it's started and going o-so-badly for the Russians, no one here should have any hesitation in helping collectively kick them when they are down.

War is hell. We should all know this. It's why I marched with CND in the 80s and against the Iraq war in 2003. But the price of freedom is eternal vigilance, and the west is sadly a bit in arrears on that.

Consider this a catch-up payment so we don't lose our planet.

There are tiny little things you can to to really piss Putin off. Some need a little effort - not using your car, turning the heating down. Some need time - not voting Tory. But some you can do immediately. And refusing to let the headlines do anything other than make you tut and go "Really ?" is immediate and free.

Threads like this need to be read in their entirety. Then you can see you aren't alone, but also you aren't the only view. (Which in itself is another thing which would piss the small-cocked Putin off).

@duvetdrama
what do you mean by 'may not read as intended' this headline has really frightened me this morning DGRossetti

DGR said:
I see Russia is warning the west of "unpredictable consequences" - which given the past 50 days may not quite read as they intended.

I think DGR meant that Russia predicted they would invade Ukraine and overthrow it within 3 days. But the unpredictable consequence was that still 50 days later they had done nothing of the sort. They had also invaded they said because of NATO expansion, yet an unpredicted consequence has been that Sweden and Finland may well now join NATO… etc

Have to say I’m much less scared of Russia’s bluster than I was 50 days ago. Not sure if it’s that I don’t think they’d follow through (I think they probably would) or whether it’s that I care more about victory for Ukraine.

[quote duvetdrama]@DGRossetti what do you mean by 'may not read as intended' this headline has really frightened me this morning [/quote]
If you read the full part of their demand that has been published, they seem to be alluding more to international and regional uncertainty as a result of the weapons and systems that the West are providing potentially falling into the hands of terrorist/fringe groups. It feeds into their narrative of Russia as the stabilising force fighting Nazi terror regimes and the West as being irresponsible and promoting destabilisation. It's basically another effort to portray themselves as the good guys and the West as the bad, it didn't read like they were actually threatening nukes as an "unpredictable consequence" on this occasion - from the bit I saw, anyway. Obviously the narrative they've created means that's always at the back of people's minds whatever they say, though, which is what they want.

It's possible the Russian ire with Britain is simply a language thing. When British press openly talk of Putins small penis, and overcompensating, along with all related failures of the Russian military (after all, if your leader can't get it up, how effective can you be ???) the rest of the world can read and understand it almost intuitively. Whereas - and this isn't a dig, just an observation - chatter in other countries in other languages doesn't travel so well

You don't think they have interpreters and translators and no one can speak and understand the intricacies of the English language there?

Nobody was able to predict that the largest supplier of tanks to the Ukraine army would be the Russian army.

Still wish we had given Polands Migs to Ukraine. I thought then the West should have called Putins bluff.
Unfortunately Biden bottled it.

@PestorPeston

Nobody was able to predict that the largest supplier of tanks to the Ukraine army would be the Russian army.

No, it really showed just now unbelievable useless the Russian army is.

It's so incredibly backwards in everything, warfare, behaviour, tactics.

chardonnays it's less about the worlds and -much- more about differences in culture. The same words can mean entirely different or partially different things to two people from different cultures. It's a weird thing to stumble across when you say one thing and your listener understands something different frm what you meant!

About the words* grr

@Igotjelly

Have to say I’m much less scared of Russia’s bluster than I was 50 days ago. Not sure if it’s that I don’t think they’d follow through (I think they probably would) or whether it’s that I care more about victory for Ukraine.

Same here, much less scared.

I know what you mean, but really, the meaning and more importantly, the usage, is not that difficult to understand.

Yes, there are cultural differences in language usage, and we can see that when we read the Russian media, and Russian official propaganda language is very interesting in its chunky Stalinist glory, but there are language professionals to help with that on both sides.

Hmm. A few tit bits flying around which beg a number of questions about the direction this is now heading. My thoughts for the next few days ahead:

The Moskva is definitely a significant milestone.

Osnitdefender @sentdefender
There are Unconfirmed reports that the Russian Federation is preparing to Formally Declare War on Ukraine in response to the Sinking of the Russian Black Sea’s Flag-Ship “Moskva”, this would allow the Russian Government to begin Mass Conscription as well as Economic War Actions.

This Official Declaration would also allow Russia to Formally Request Assistance from Treaty Organization that they are apart of such as the CSTO which consists of many Euro-Asian Countries including Tajikistan and Kazakhstan.

The line about May 9th in the post I made above looks interesting in this context. Did Kazakhstan put Russia on notice or are they preparing to support them in war? Keep watching this. I think it might be more important that I initially thought and it may not be as positive as the above thread seems to suggest either.

In the comments below the Osnitdefender thread:

Matthew Shoemaker @mattshoemaker88
Worth noting, Russia formally declaring war means, according to UN treaties, other countries have to cease trading with warring parties. This is one reason why virtually no one has formally/legally declared war in decades

oosas @siaubas
Then Russia would be risking being at war with the US, if the US refuses to stop sending weapons.

Matthew Shoemaker @mattshoemaker88
So here’s where it gets weird. Self defense (in Ukraine’s case) doesn’t require ukraine to declare war and as long as ukraine doesn’t declare war back, legally speaking the US can still send them weapons without legally/technically being an accomplice in the conflict

But that requires people to follow international law…

This would include Germany et al, from importing Russian fuel and the Middle East / Africa importing wheat. (Though Russia has already put in export bans on wheat so this part may be somewhat irrelevant.) Would this happen? European importers need to think about this. If they chose to ignore it does render the UN even more useless and irrelevant. The long term future of the UN is very much up for debate here.

Trent Telenko also raises an relevant point in response but I doubt it will go as far as the conclusion he draws. That said a Russian civil war when Putin dies in very much in my thinking, but I'm not convinced it will go like this.

I do think its a scenario that is worth considering at least though. We are seeing some signs of Putin arresting large numbers within his power base, so the idea that the snake is eating itself is very much in play.

Trent Telenko @trenttelenko
Whelp, it looks like the Putin Regime has realized it can't hide the humiliating loss of the Moskva and now Putin has decided to make lemonade out of the lemon flavored s--tburger Ukraine force fed his regime.

This may fix the short term Russian manpower problem.

It will make the corruption-power sharing problems much worse for Putin as he tries to eat the corruption-based income streams of the Oligarchs & Generals to fund the war.

Those guys have no future in a wartime 'North Koreanized' Putin Regime & they know it.

This is where the internal contradictions of the Russian Kleptocracy will start to tear the Putin Regime apart.

Kleptocracies are about money over power.

Thieves don't stop stealing while there is a war on.

Putin will have to start imprisoning/killing domestic opponents in the Oligarchy to fund his invasion of Ukraine.

Without the fair maid of money, the Kleptocracy start to will eat itself & then, eventually, Putin with a '9mm retirement.'

The removal of Putin without a vetted successor will result in a power vacuum interregnum where we will see the Russian Army repeat it's 1917 behavior of simply going home and shooting officers who get in the way.

Putin has attached to himself a cult of personality like the Czar.

The rural Russian troops who have been brainwashed by Putin's agitprop simply are not going to fight for whomever takes Putin out.

That is going to make the succession fight confused, protracted & bloody.

First Belarus & then Poland overrun with Russian refugees - 'cause Ukraine will be busy shooting Russians who try - is not on anyone's player card right now.

However, it is the logical outcome of Putin's pending '9mm resignation notice.'

There is one other thing we can be certain regards these pending events.

It will be a "Complete Surprise" for the Western intelligence agencies because the top guys in them are busy telling the elected officials what they want to hear & not what their analysts see

The whole thing raises questions about whether Putin can declare war to fix his problems. It is being demanded by his propaganda channels and therefore a significant part of the public so the pressure is building to do it. However its clear its probably going to merely create a world of other problems for Putin...

Rock meet hard place.

We are into the land of existential threat to Russia post Moskva in my honest opinion.

So I think the next couple of days will have a fair amount of talk about Russia declaring war / Russia will declare war and how this changes things.

This is why today Zelensky is talking about preparing for Russia to use nukes but also stresses not to be afraid.

Not because he thinks Russia will definitely use them. But because he's trying to stop it in line with this thinking:

Anders Aslund @andersaslund
Few things are more tiresome than Westerners getting scared of Russian nukes. As @GeneralClark repeatedly states. Rather than getting scared of Russian nukes, presume that Putin will use nukes & ask what the US will do. The answer is Putin will not use nukes then.

As I said upthread, this is the only way the west can now play this. Its scary but the alternatives are more likely to end up with nukes being used rather than talked about. The logic is Biden has to appear willing to use rather than likely to blink.

I therefore think we are about to hear a lot of talk about nukes, because Zelensky, of all people, has opened the conversation up on this. Prepare for the talk of nukes and keep in mind that counter initiatively it doesn't mean that they are more likely to be used.

What I wanted put across is that it's easy to underestimate them, it's tempting to underestimate and it's understandable to do that in the light of their ineptness, but it's not helping us to do so.