Ukraine Invasion: Part 20

[HappyWinter]

Thanks to everyone for taking part in the thread.

BREAKING: The Kyiv police have discovered 900 civilian bodies. Almost all of them were shot dead.

Enough now. In fact, for me that was weeks ago. They haven't uncovered half of this yet either.

I'm sick of Putrids threats. It's all bluff to cover up just how shit his supposed superpower is. He's a tin pot antiquated twat that believes his own bullshit. A legend in his own lunchtime.

The fact they broadcast that they're not at war, then their big boat is sunk but it was an ammo explosion but it's ukraines fault etc etc. to have to listen to their absolute lies and gaslighting and we still don't stop it....

It's fucking appalling.

twitter.com/figgymom/status/1515072846627713028?s=21&t=BMLotS0GY86K9C3TuNTFmw

Like I said

Has there been any news on the claim that the Moskva was carrying nuclear warheads or was that nonsense?

Nothing that I have seen after that one comment. Perhaps it was bullshit.

Anders Aslund @andersaslund
Few things are more tiresome than Westerners getting scared of Russian nukes. As @GeneralClark repeatedly states. Rather than getting scared of Russian nukes, presume that Putin will use nukes & ask what the US will do. The answer is Putin will not use nukes then.

This is a good point.

If Putin is prepared to use a tactical nuke because he thinks the west will blink and will try to peacemake, you can only change that by convincing him that the US is prepared to fully respond.

Sending more weapons sends a robust message.

It doesn't deesculate, but you have to subscribe to the idea that Putin is willing to deesculate. And thats hard to see.

I reckon thats the change in calculation going on in DC.

If Putin will nuke no matter what, then you also have to plan for it. Nothing we do will change that.

You therefore have to bet on Putin seeing there is no benefit to nuking. There isn't an alternative. All other options end in nukes.

@Alexandra2001

On the Neptune missile strike, i don't think it was a case of Russia choosing Civilian over Military targets, more a case of that they didn't even consider it! Their ineptitude is quite obvious.

However the Ukrainians aren't stupid, its possible they had no missiles stored there and even another assembly area.

I did think that Ukrainians probably won't be so stupid as to leave their missile factory exposed. Let's hope they saw this coming and have quietly de-camped elsewhere. The Russians can claim shit.

@RedToothBrush

Anders Aslund *@andersaslund* Few things are more tiresome than Westerners getting scared of Russian nukes. As *@GeneralClark* repeatedly states. Rather than getting scared of Russian nukes, presume that Putin will use nukes & ask what the US will do. The answer is Putin will not use nukes then.

This is a good point.

If Putin is prepared to use a tactical nuke because he thinks the west will blink and will try to peacemake, you can only change that by convincing him that the US is prepared to fully respond.

Sending more weapons sends a robust message.

It doesn't deesculate, but you have to subscribe to the idea that Putin is willing to deesculate. And thats hard to see.

I reckon thats the change in calculation going on in DC.

If Putin will nuke no matter what, then you also have to plan for it. Nothing we do will change that.

You therefore have to bet on Putin seeing there is no benefit to nuking. There isn't an alternative. All other options end in nukes.

Well put.

Odesa

You should be ashamed for questioning Aiden Aslin’s courage, resolve and his position. Shame on you!

Well yes shame on me.

But I didn't.

I didn't question it. It didn't mention it. I made no mention of his boot size either.

I put: 'I suspect he has had the precariousness of his situation made clear'.

Do you not understand what I was suggesting?

@BringBackCoffeeCreams

Has there been any news on the claim that the Moskva was carrying nuclear warheads or was that nonsense?

I know nothing but I am inclined to think it was Putin lies and bluff as usual and it did not carry any nuclear warheads.

Presumably Russia has not said anything about this.

""Sad story of Moskva: 90% of the crew including and led by the captain Anton Kuprin went to the bottom""

No sympathy here.

I am totally ashamed I am using nuanced English.

So with ''I suspect he has had the precariousness of his situation made clear' examples might be:

Shit kicked out of him.

Threatened with death.

Family threatened.

All of the above and/or something else.

Now that he HAS publicly turned (and his confession is over Russian media but isn't getting close to Moskva related rants) it will be interesting to see if he still has value. Somehow I think a future article 'I surrendered in Mariupol and survived by turning on my colleagues because I was coerced' is possible but unlikely. Time will tell.

"Now that he HAS publicly turned"

But no one actually believes that. He's fighting to survive now.

He's been in Ukraine since 2018 in their armed forces, Ukrainian fiancé and had a life there, not here.

I can see why he fought for Ukraine. I mean, they're an incredible nation as we can all see clearly now.

Implicit in my last paragraph above is that I think he has possibly served his purpose.

Anyway, Moskva sinking: the Russian discussion is swinging around to a missile strike as the fire tale seems untenable. If you ponder it, the fire but no Ukraine missile version admits to incompetence without even being attacked. The Gorbachev (no not that one) speech at the relatives' gathering in Sevastopol is being picked up around the world [CNA article snip - Singapore].

The Mark Hertling threat on Twitter that adds Moskva to a list of Russian failures half way through just rubs in how humiliating things now are for Putin and his entourage.

twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1515074699587473411?s=20&t=Hy5zt86xOsCgfShhTPYPjg

Implicit in my last paragraph above is that I think he has possibly served his purpose.

I dare not ask but what does it mean for him? It does not sound like good news. Would he be too high profile now to be disappeared?

But no one actually believes that. He's fighting to survive now.

Exactly. No one being most people in the West and Ukraine can see that. I make an exception for a certain Irish MEP and a few others.

In Russia his 'turning and confession' [speech marks so I don't get a shame attack] is being lapped up.

RT: British captive who fought in Mariupol describes ‘reality’.

Timur on VK, who has a long standing genuine looking account: 'Meet another scumbag - Aiden Aslin, a British nazi volunteer who was fighting against the Donbass people and Russian troops in ukraine. Running out of food and ammo, he surrendered to the Russian troops and here he is, making up beautiful stories just to escape captivity. Hopefully to no avail.'

Lilia who posts Aslin giving Putin the finger as well as criticising captured Aiden: Наш британский мальчик оказался совсем не таким скромным: Интервью с этим инопленным, он вроде ещё с зимы на Украине (now not so modest British boy).

Do they see he has been beaten? Yes. Does what he says fit in with their view of Ukrainians? Yes.

I've got my dimwitted hat on this evening, maybe this has already been discussed and I missed it. Zelensky is understandably pissed off at European countries continuing to buy Russian gas. He's talked about it being paid for in Ukrainian lives. Why doesn't he just turn it off? I've only just realised that the pipelines pass through Ukraine.

Is Aiden Aslin Kurdish? I'm confused he also spoke Farsi in some footage. And he fought ISIS in Syria. His fiance is Ukrainian.

Would he be too high profile now to be disappeared?

I just don't know, but he was fighting in Syria so deporting him to face 'justice' in a third country would keep the story running and shift the final decision.

He's a catch in propaganda terms. If he is disappeared the spotlight shifts to 'what did you do with Aiden?' so I suspect he will face trial or be exchanged.

@BringBackCoffeeCreams

I've got my dimwitted hat on this evening, maybe this has already been discussed and I missed it. Zelensky is understandably pissed off at European countries continuing to buy Russian gas. He's talked about it being paid for in Ukrainian lives. Why doesn't he just turn it off? I've only just realised that the pipelines pass through Ukraine.

Good question. Me too.

While not getting too focused on Aiden Aslin: I assume he is White British. A quick search on a genealogical site beginning with A shows a number of Aslins generally in the Midlands in the 1800s onwards. What looks like his birth record (registered in 1994) gives him four names / initials before Aslin and says his mother's maiden name is Aslin. I am sure all this will be in articles about him in the coming days. He fought alongside Kurds in Syria.

As for gas and oil pipelines: not just via Ukraine. Belarus into Poland and beyond, Latvia, Lithuania, for instance.

I suspect Zelenksys hands are tied on the gas lines somewhere along the line.

If I were him I'd bomb them and blame it on the Russians

I am not quite sure from reading this why the gas can’t be turned off, especially as there is mention that the pipelines are difficult to maintain and repair under war conditions, but here is more about it.

Russian gas will continue to flow through Ukraine to Europe - Ukraine's Naftogaz | Reuters

www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-gas-will-continue-flow-through-ukraine-europe-ukraines-naftogaz-2022-03-14/

Which part of Ukraine do the gas pipelines pass through?

Interesting questions posed by those gas pipelines.

@OriginalFloorboards probably because it’ll piss off the very people who are currently supplying Ukraine with weapons/aid. He needs Europe & US to continue supplying. He won’t cause problems like this for countries offering substantial support

Good article by Oryx writers on Moskva loss and Russian failure.

'While large contingents of military analysts still remain baffled by the ineffectiveness of supposedly advanced Russian military equipment, there has in fact been an ongoing trend of Russian military hardware proving unable to hack it on modern battlefields. Though the Ukrainian conflict has exposed this secret to the wider public, the first truly telling conflict was Nagorno-Karabakh's forty-four day war of 2020, in which many of Russia's most modern EW and SAM systems proved little capable against UCAVs and small loitering munitions.'

And

'The catastrophic saga of Russia's attempt at subduing its neighbour must have not only astonished those following the offensive, but also Russia itself. Once thought to be amongst the most powerful armies of the world, the biggest enemy of the Russian Armed Forces turned out not to be NATO, but the Russian government itself. The incompetence, corruption and complete denial of reality so deeply embedded in its way of governing not only contributed to dragging yet another country into a senseless war, but also appears to have eliminated the Russian Armed Forces as an effective fighting force. In this sense, the sinking of the cruiser Moskva, though a seemingly isolated event, is a symptom of far larger problems.'

And more.

www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/neptunes-wrath-flagship-moskvas-demise.html