Mark Hertling @markhertling
Just now, @jaketapper on @ccn asked me about the strategic & operational importance of the Moskva sinking.
In my view, this is a very big deal for a variety of reasons.
Here's a new thread 1/14
First, many are still asking "was this a ship board accident (fire), or was this really a Neptune strike?"
DoD indicates the latter.
Having said that, this was MORE than a simple matter of a couple of missiles hitting a ship that was a great distance away. 2/
There will be an after-action review (AAR) on this strike, and someday we will learn what went into it.
But anytime a military unit conducts a strike as complex as this, there is MUCH more than just launching a couple of missiles that surround the event.
Let's leave it there.3/
[rtb: intelligence and planning?]
But I would say that it is open-source reporting that Ukraine has had this ground-to-ship missile in experimentation for about 5 years.
Now I'm not a sailor, but it seems the Russians sure didn't incorporate that info into their naval maneuver planning.
Shame on them. 4/
Back to the question: Will this sinking be strategically important?
I'd say, emphatically: Yes, for a variety of reason!
First, this the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet. But this ship was also the flagship during the 2008 invasion in Georgia, and it's named for MOSCOW! 5/
This ship was tasked to provide overall Fleet C2 (command and control), Air Defense (it is filled with different ADA systems), and it would have discharged Naval Infantry (Marines) during a planned amphib assault on the shores near Odesa. 6/
As Putin revised his plan for "eastern & southern attacks" after failing to take Kyiv, the seizure of the Black Sea coast (& perhaps the continued attack toward Transnistria in Moldova) was likely part of the "new" plan.
It will be hard to execute that western assault now. 7/
But there's more...
Russia/Putin should NOT take this sinking as a singular event.
Let's add the Moskva sinking to other failures: 8/
-The destruction of the Russian Parachute Regiment (the famed "palace guard" VDV/Spetznaz) north of Kyiv during the first week of the war.
-The loss of at least 7 generals & an unlimited number of Colonel Commanders of key Combined Arms Armies and Tank/Motorized Rifle Units. 9/
-The increasing number of Russian soldiers (mostly conscripts) killed in action (Ukraines count is now 20,000...and that's likely conservative).
-The destruction of over 700 tanks and literally hundreds of other armored vehicles during the first 50 days 10/
-The inability of the Russian Air Force to provide close air support to Russian ground troops or deep strikes against Ukrainian forces due to fear of UA air defense
-Russians communicating using unencrypted devices that leads to intelligence leaks 11/
-Ukraine Army helicopters conducting a cross-border operations into Belgorod to destroy multiple fuel tanks
-UA special operations striking behind Russian lines against key logistics targets.
-RU failure to resupply/medically evacuate their troops 12/
Again, the strike against the Moskva was a big deal.
But combining it with other the Russian military failures, it should be difficult for Putin to explain to his citizens.
The advantages of being an authoritarian w/ a friendly RT news channel. 13/
I've learned never to underestimate my enemies, but it's going to be VERY hard for Russian General Dvornikov to turn this around. 14/14
Going back to this:
Putin can't hide the sinking of the Moskva. It apparently happened in the early hours and this was confirmed independently by Romania and Turkey.
Yesterday, they tried for some time to suggest it hadn't sunk and had tried to tow it back to port.
But ultimately they knew they couldn't hide it, so admitted it had sunk.
The official line is now that they safely evacuated the ship, following an onboard munitions accident and the ship then sank in stormy weather.
Yet Russian state tv didn't believe this and had pundits referring to an attack by Ukraine which merited a retaliation. Its an open admission that they do not believe the official line. Its not subtle. It was a direct question. It was a direct challenge to Putin.
It asks "well what the fuck is your response to this significant Ukrainian attack? How do we retaliate?"
This begs a response from Putin.
He can't say the Special military operation is going well. Cos everyone knows this isn't supposed to happen.
The facade of Putin as a great military strong man is shattered. Putin has to prove himself.
Yet how?
He cannot commit more, when it does not exist.
Such open challenges to his leadership, may seem trivial but they will sting and give cause for concern.
Putin now has to demonstrate to the pundits. If he now cannot deliver the red meat they desire, there's a issue.
Putin must now invent a pretext to switch from a military operation to a war. He has no choice. He is into 'unforced' errors.