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Ukraine Invasion: Part 20

997 replies

HappyWinter · 11/04/2022 21:30

Thanks to everyone for taking part in the thread.

OP posts:
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51
DGRossetti · 13/04/2022 12:07

And a comment on that article ...

let's not forget that Russia is a small market. It might have an enormous land mass (the largest country in the world, covering over 17,125,192 km2, and encompassing more than one-eighth of Earth's inhabited land area, according to Wikipedia), it has only 145 million inhabitants.

Its economy is slightly larger than that of Spain but the Russian people are 70% poorer than the Spanish people. There is only one EU country with a poorer population than Russia and that is Bulgaria. Moreover, these economic figures are from before some of the harshest economic sanctions the world has ever seen. The Russian economy never really recovered from the sanctions post the annexation of Crimea and those were peanuts compared with the current sanctions. The ruble currency is being propped up artificially but they can't keep that up for much longer and every time the capital controls are eased slightly we see signs of capital flight. Russia is suffering a big brain drain at the moment as educated people are leaving the country to Turkey, Armenia and Georgia.

Regardless of how much the Chinese government wants to maintain a relationship with Russia on a political level, as a Chinese company it is playing with fire to keep doing business with such a small, and submerging, market if the risk is losing custom in the richest parts of the world, Europe and North America.

MagicFox · 13/04/2022 12:08

Can you clarify what you mean there @DGRossetti as that's a pretty scary post

MagicFox · 13/04/2022 12:08

Sorry, the updated quote clarifies!

ClaudineClare · 13/04/2022 12:21

.

Ijsbear · 13/04/2022 12:27

The Russian economy never really recovered from the sanctions post the annexation of Crimea

Slightly confusingly some pundits seem to think that the Crimean sanctions achieved nothing and others seem to think they did achieve something. Wonder which it is.

One thing to bear in mind is that an impoverished country with one media message and a grudge can brew a very angry and volatile people.

strawberriesarenot · 13/04/2022 12:34

@Ijsbear

The Russian economy never really recovered from the sanctions post the annexation of Crimea

Slightly confusingly some pundits seem to think that the Crimean sanctions achieved nothing and others seem to think they did achieve something. Wonder which it is.

One thing to bear in mind is that an impoverished country with one media message and a grudge can brew a very angry and volatile people.

This is so true, and exactly how WW2 began. It's why I fear the isolation of Russia long term. After this war I think the west has to open the doors agains, so to speak, because God knows what will brew behind them if they are locked shut.
DGRossetti · 13/04/2022 12:39

If we do open the doors to Russia again, it should be from humanity, not fear. And humanity - like respect - is earned not demanded.

MagicFox · 13/04/2022 12:44

@DGRossetti

If we do open the doors to Russia again, it should be from humanity, not fear. And humanity - like respect - is earned not demanded.

Absolutely, but I agree with strawberries that we must open the door

strawberriesarenot · 13/04/2022 12:46

There seems to be no discernible humanity in Putin. It could be a long wait.

Autumnwater · 13/04/2022 12:50

With Sweden and Finland both looking into or going to be putting in applications to join NATO what are other peoples thoughts on this? Pre war I was against NATO expansion and still feel the same to an extent but understand why these previously neutral countries are looking to join.

Natsku · 13/04/2022 13:04

@BringBackCoffeeCreams

Swedish media is reporting that the Swedish PM and Finnish PM meet today to discuss NATO membership. However the Swedish PM has already taken the decision to join. The application is already prepared and will formally submitted at the next NATO summit, which is in June.
Finnish news is saying that Andersson denies having made the decision already. I still reckon its a foregone conclusion now, Sweden and Finland will both join. Saw this yesterday www.politico.eu/article/sweden-nato-wins-lottery-finland-membership-russia-ukraine/?fbclid=IwAR3DVRlKFouDbjVJSJmlCaZSqGFUilqDAAuyVmu0Rrwv0JYiN35a3bjLaoo and may I say, you're welcome Sweden, we're making it easy for you Grin
DGRossetti · 13/04/2022 13:05

Having grown up under the shield of NATO - which has never invaded or attacked any sovereign country (unless I am spectacularly ill informed, although the lack of calls from Tory party HQ suggest I have some clues) I can't fathom why people think it's having more members is a bad thing.

The only "problem" with NATO is that is has up till now pretty effectively stopped Russias ambitions to grow and grow and grow.

A parallel might be if the local thieves, drug dealers and pimps all raised a petition threatening our neighbourhood watch against expanding.

thereisonlyoneofme · 13/04/2022 13:06

Re victory Parade, the media will edit out all signs of destruction no doubt , its not as if thousands of Russians are going to be lining the streets

Ijsbear · 13/04/2022 13:09

Everyone should be treated with humanity. Some people may fall below the standard but while there needs to be consequences, if you still treat them with humanity then some will rise to those standards (some won't, of course).

But if you treat others without humanity, you will certainly not improve their behaviour.

I refuse to hate the Russian people en masse because it just won't achieve anything.

CailleachGranda · 13/04/2022 13:09

@Autumnwater

With Sweden and Finland both looking into or going to be putting in applications to join NATO what are other peoples thoughts on this? Pre war I was against NATO expansion and still feel the same to an extent but understand why these previously neutral countries are looking to join.
Can I ask why you were against expansion?
Natsku · 13/04/2022 13:10

@Autumnwater

With Sweden and Finland both looking into or going to be putting in applications to join NATO what are other peoples thoughts on this? Pre war I was against NATO expansion and still feel the same to an extent but understand why these previously neutral countries are looking to join.
I was against Finland (and by extension Sweden) joining before this, but definitely changed my mind now. Wasn't against it because I saw an issue with NATO expanding, just did not like Finland having to commit to NATO but that's a trade-off that's worth it now (and Finland already joins in with NATO crisis operations so what difference is it really? Assuming we'll be able to say no to permanent NATO bases)
blueshoes · 13/04/2022 13:14

@thereisonlyoneofme

Re victory Parade, the media will edit out all signs of destruction no doubt , its not as if thousands of Russians are going to be lining the streets
I am sure Russia could create a Mariopol victory parade using CGI. Actually they can probably start working on that now using old footage and a green screen.
Alexandra2001 · 13/04/2022 13:16

@Ijsbear

Everyone should be treated with humanity. Some people may fall below the standard but while there needs to be consequences, if you still treat them with humanity then some will rise to those standards (some won't, of course).

But if you treat others without humanity, you will certainly not improve their behaviour.

I refuse to hate the Russian people en masse because it just won't achieve anything.

You treat human beings with humanity, you do not treat a baby rapist/a bomber of maternity units/people who bury others alive etc etc etc with humanity as they are not behaving as humans.

Their behavior will never improve, however you treat them, so why bother.

No one should hate all Russians, many are being extremely brave and opposing Putin.

DuncinToffee · 13/04/2022 13:36

Dave Keating @DaveKeating

🇸🇪#Sweden and 🇫🇮#Finland's prime ministers have just held a joint press conference outlining plans to join #NATO.

🇫🇮 expected to move first. PM Marin says she won't give a timetable but "it will happen quite fast—within weeks, not within months, we will have the discussion"

🇫🇮&🇸🇪"will deliver decisions independently" says Marin. Assumption has always been 🇸🇪 can't join unless 🇫🇮 does 1st.

"Of course...I would prefer that we would make the similar kinds of choices for the whole region—but it's up to Sweden to decide for yourself"

Sweden's SvD reports that the ruling Social Democrats have already decided to apply for NATO membership (but must wait for Finland to decide to do so first), and will submit the application at the Madrid summit at end of June.

Thread continued twitter.com/davekeating/status/1514198882250596356?s=21

HappyWinter · 13/04/2022 13:39

I wonder how many ordinary Russians know the full story of what's going on in Ukraine, how easy is it for them to get information outside of the official channels? One of their main independent news outlets (Novaya Gazeta) closed recently due to Kremlin pressure and its editor was attacked.

OP posts:
Saltedeggplant · 13/04/2022 13:44

@HappyWinter

I wonder how many ordinary Russians know the full story of what's going on in Ukraine, how easy is it for them to get information outside of the official channels? One of their main independent news outlets (Novaya Gazeta) closed recently due to Kremlin pressure and its editor was attacked.
The youtube channel 1420 does good street interviews with a variety of people, recently have been doing Ukraine based ones, they showed people footage of bucha and asked for opinions etc. bit of an generation divide of where people get info from, with some outliers.
Saltedeggplant · 13/04/2022 13:45

*a variety of people from Russia.

Autumnwater · 13/04/2022 13:45

@CailleachGranda of course. From my limited knowledge on the whole NATO expansionism.

I’ve seen it from the point of it being a way to be inflammatory by the US against Russia under a disguise of a defensive alliance, of course each country is free to do what they want and request to join whatever alliance they wish if they are accepted. With no offence to the countries who have joined in recent years but they had little to add in terms of military might and spending, what they gave was a way to aggravate the east and a border closer to Russia.

Has NATO expansion caused Europe to be safer? Absolutely not. It also raises the question which has been around recently will NATO really step in if Russia attacks a Baltic member, which a lot of people don’t think they will. There’s a lot of info out there on why NATI expansion isn’t a great idea. That’s my very limited and brief reason on why I don’t agree

RedToothBrush · 13/04/2022 13:45

Kevin Rothrock @kevinrothrock
This is quite telling: since the start of the February 24 invasion, the Russian state has increased funding for propaganda by 3.2 times, while funding for the army has risen only 11%.

Alexandra2001 · 13/04/2022 14:05

@HappyWinter

I wonder how many ordinary Russians know the full story of what's going on in Ukraine, how easy is it for them to get information outside of the official channels? One of their main independent news outlets (Novaya Gazeta) closed recently due to Kremlin pressure and its editor was attacked.
Even when they do, they deny, plenty of Ukrainians and Russians living in the west phone back home and get short shrift, in the case of Ukrainian families, many have completely fallen out with their Russian relatives.

Independent polling shows Putin has around 80% support, though of course with a state controlled media, no surprise.