Ukraine Invasion: Part 20

[HappyWinter]

Thanks to everyone for taking part in the thread.

Given the focus of the thread today this is a timely piece just published by Lawrence Freedman on nato and ukraine:

samf.substack.com/p/nato-and-ukraine?s=r

The Guardian is reporting

Ukrainian authorities have collected 765 bodies of civilians, including 30 children, in the Kyiv area since Russian forces were routed there at the start of April, a senior prosecutor in the region has said.

Oleh Tkalenko, the Kyiv region deputy head prosecutor, warned that authorities expected many more dead bodies would be found in the coming weeks.

“This is only the beginning. We have only just started working in the bigger towns such as Borodianka, Hostomel, Irpin and Bucha,” Tkalenko said, referring to the number of dead civilians. “There’s a lot we haven’t dug up yet.”

@DuncinToffee

The Guardian is reporting

Ukrainian authorities have collected 765 bodies of civilians, including 30 children, in the Kyiv area since Russian forces were routed there at the start of April, a senior prosecutor in the region has said.

Oleh Tkalenko, the Kyiv region deputy head prosecutor, warned that authorities expected many more dead bodies would be found in the coming weeks.

“This is only the beginning. We have only just started working in the bigger towns such as Borodianka, Hostomel, Irpin and Bucha,” Tkalenko said, referring to the number of dead civilians. “There’s a lot we haven’t dug up yet.”

It's important they dig up and identify (what's left of) the bodies to prevent Russian attempts to try and leverage families hopes of seeing loved ones alive as part of "quelling" the civilian population.

Why do you think there are stories of people (especially children) being taken to Russia ? They're hostages plain and simple.

(They probably got the idea from the British. Sounds like the sort of thing we'd have got up to in our illustrious imperial age).

Adding this excellent piece by Eliot Cohen on this being the decisive moment in the war.

www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/04/ukraine-russia-war-consequences/629541/

bigly plaice matting.

Demonstration, against the rape and murder of women and children in Ukraine, outside the Russian embassy in Estonia. Really effected me for some reason.

Very powerful image Igotjelly, got me as well

Also worth remembering that all the people you see on Russian TV "disbelieving" what is happening in Ukraine and being "happy with Putin" may also have family members in the gulags.

@DGRossetti

Also worth remembering that all the people you see on Russian TV "disbelieving" what is happening in Ukraine and being "happy with Putin" may also have family members in the gulags.

Yeh. It’s easy to speak out against your country and govt when you don’t have the threat of detention of a fall out of a high window to worry about.

DGR yes, their stories need to be told and shown to the world. We can't shy away from the absolute horrors.

I’m a few pages behind but I caught the end of this interview earlier. She says that both nato and UN are useless. UN because they can’t do anything (true) amd NATO because even if Ukraine had been a member, or if it had been one of the nato countries he invaded, she says the agreement is that within 50 days nato will come in to fight for the country. Look how much of Ukraine has been destroyed in less than 50 days. If the 50 days thing is true then I have to agree with her, 50 days would have a smaller country with a smaller and less trained army defeated and nothing left for nato to fight for.

mobile.twitter.com/LBC/status/1514219188201693198

What is Irish MEP Clare Daley on about???

@eglantine7

What is Irish MEP Clare Daley on about???

She is crazy, pretty much the whole country is embarrassed by her. Russia can have her!

@eglantine7

What is Irish MEP Clare Daley on about???

Well, if Putin had ordered an effective ceasefire, withdrawing troops and wanted talks, she might have a point.

But the key component missing in her rant was that Putin is the aggressor and wants to continue war.

Upsetting article about the war crimes in Chechnya

Putin’s terror playbook: if you want a picture of Ukraine’s future, look to my home, Chechnya
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/apr/13/russia-ukraine-chechnya-moscow-aggression-putin-victims

@Onceuponatimeinalandfaraway

I’m a few pages behind but I caught the end of this interview earlier. She says that both nato and UN are useless. UN because they can’t do anything (true) amd NATO because even if Ukraine had been a member, or if it had been one of the nato countries he invaded, she says the agreement is that within 50 days nato will come in to fight for the country. Look how much of Ukraine has been destroyed in less than 50 days. If the 50 days thing is true then I have to agree with her, 50 days would have a smaller country with a smaller and less trained army defeated and nothing left for nato to fight for.

mobile.twitter.com/LBC/status/1514219188201693198

Not to quibble but she said NATO agrees to help after 60 days - even worse! It was 50 days into the invasion she meant. So evidently NATO would be leaving it too late in many cases.

She mentioned the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 which gave Ukraine guarantees from the U.S. and U.K. in return for them giving up their nuclear arsenal.
Can anyone say
a. What happened to the Budapest Memorandum here? Or, are the weapons they sent supposed to be the guarantee?

b. How could there be that Budapest Memorandum guarantee at the same time as the U.S. and U.K. having to act as part of NATO ( with the agreement of other the NATO countries)?

The article above Chechnya has parallels with what is happening in Ukraine, with civilians being targeted including hospitals.

Presidents of Poland, Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia visited Borodyanka, a town of 12,000 people 40 kilometers northwest of Kyiv, that has suffered some of the worst destruction seen by any place in Russia’s war against Ukraine.

@Onceuponatimeinalandfaraway

NATO because even if Ukraine had been a member, or if it had been one of the nato countries he invaded, she says the agreement is that within 50 days nato will come in to fight for the country.

Never heard of a 50 day rule before, the North Atlantic Treaty is here:

www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.htm

Article 5 is the important one in this context.

Mary Ilyushina @maryilyushina
“Has tendency towards betrayal, lies and deceit: refused to participate in the special military operation in LNR, DNR and Ukraine.” This stamp shared by a lawyer helping Russian military men going viral. The fact there is a stamp may point that this is happening more often now.

BBC
Ukraine continues to deny Russian reports of more than 1,000 marines surrendering in the strategic, besieged port city of Mariupol.

Speaking to the BBC, Petro Andriuschenko, an adviser to the mayor of Mariupol, has dismissed Russia's statements as "impossible".

He says Ukraine still holds several areas of the city.

"They don't control our harbour, they don't control Azovstal [iron and steel works]," Andriuschenko says.

Russian forces were also not controlling half of the eastern district of Livoberezhnyi, the biggest part of Prymorskyi in the north or half of the city's central district.

The BBC cannot currently verify his comments as the full picture of what is going on in the city is still unclear.

Clarification about the Budapest Memorandum cited by the Ukrainian MP talking to David Lammy.

mobile.twitter.com/LBC/status/1514219188201693198

She said it had not been worth the paper it was written on. But according to this:

Washington did not promise unlimited support. The Budapest Memorandum contains security “assurances,” not “guarantees.” Guarantees would have implied a commitment of American military force, which NATO members have. U.S. officials made clear that was not on offer. Hence, assurances.
www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2019/12/05/why-care-about-ukraine-and-the-budapest-memorandum/

Re what she said in regard to Article 5 in the NATO agreement meaning any intervention would only come after 60 days, I can’t find any mention of that either as @notimagain said.

According to OSCE, half a million Ukrainians have been forcibly deported to Russia

twitter.com/kylieatwood/status/1514244289626263558?s=21

Details in this new OSCE report are horrific:

a Ukrainian interpreter held in captivity for 9 days by Russian forces in an icy cellar, beaten w/ an iron bar & rifle butts, tortured w/ electricity.
500,000 Ukrainians forcibly deported to Russia & some put in filtration camps.

I am not doubting any news reports - I am not able to verify anything.

It cannot be easy to deport 500,000 Ukrainians without satellites noticing the buses and trains going in the opposite direction. Does anyone have any intelligence on this?

Here is the full report
www.osce.org/files/f/documents/f/a/515868.pdf