Ukraine Invasion: Part 19

[MagicFox]

Welcome friends, still going

@DGRossetti haha maybe that's how it works. I'm not sure. Racism is so weird to me and I rarely encountered it openly but then I was born and raised in Notting Hill and a teen in the 90s. It's genuinely weird to me that people think in terms of race. Patriotism also gives me the creeps and it's not always a bad thing to be patriotic.
I did volunteer with Afghan refugees before Christmas. I do sense the wider public don't have as much sympathy for non European refugees definitely.

European Parliament votes for a resolution calling for “immediate full embargo” on Russian oil and gas imports.

Roberta Metsola @EP_President

Stronger action called for by @Europarl_EN in strong resolution following war-crimes in #Ukraine:

•immediate full embargo on Russian oil, coal, nuclear fuel & gas
•delivery of weapons to be stepped up
•more & harder sanctions reflecting level of atrocities

eglantine7 the proposed Nationality and Borders bill is a depressive read though. But then a Tory MP did say that he only wanted the right kind of refugees just last week.

And the Ukraine visa scheme is proving quite a headache.

@DGRossetti - you can call it bollocks all you like, it is what happens. Usually there will only be a coalition/unity government in wartime.

Post towards the end of the last thread:
ChardonnaysPetDragon Wed 06-Apr-22 17:40:47
To call it genocide in law there has to be an element of intent to destroy a particulate group, that's very difficult to prove.

It's not only a moral issue, it has to the exact definition in law.

About that proving intent and planning:

Katty Kay @KattyKay_
German intelligence has evidence that massacres in Bucha were actually planned and coordinated. Think about that. Not the random violence of individual soldiers pumped up on adrenaline - this was a strategy.

Peter R. Neumann @PeterRNeumann
THREAD: German intelligence service BND captures radio messages of Russian soldiers coordinating Bucha massacres.
www.spiegel.de/politik/butscha-soldaten-besprachen-graeueltaten-gegen-zivilisten-ueber-funk-a-9e01662c-aa7e-4828-bf6f-f662d9b6164e

According to @derspiegel , many of the messages match locations in which bodies were found. Also, some of the descriptions by soldiers are consistent with photographs that have emerged in recent days.

In the recordings, Russian soldiers casually speak about killing people. In one, a soldier describes how he shot a Ukrainian civilian "off his bike". Another talks about how Ukrainian soldiers are questioned, then executed.

The material seems to indicate that Russian mercenary group Wagner has participated in the massacre. It suggests that the atrocities are part of a deliberate strategy to break Ukrainian resistance by terrorising local populations.

Most disturbingly, the BND has captured plenty of similar recordings whose locations could not yet be identified. This means that there could be more Buchas around Ukraine.

At what point do we pass the threshold where there is enough evidence to say that calling it a genocide is pretty reasonable accusation and there is a good case to answer in law?

When we've got Putin's 10 point plan, in his own hand writting which says: "Squadon 45 are to go to X Town, and their orders are to rape, loot and execute as many people as possible who simply happen to live in Ukraine"?

Do we think the Germans have made this story up?
Do we think its JUST the Germans who have this intel?

I really do think that saying 'oh well we haven't got enough evidence to make a case in line with the letter of the law yet', really starts to look like its merely trying to throw a technical point.

Are we actively trying avoid using the word Genocide because of the magnitude of using the word?

Why?

As I keep saying, Western governments KNOW this stuff. They have this intel.

I do not believe for one second that Zelensky would have used the word purely for propaganga or to try and manipulate anyone. I don't think he would use it because he was 'understandly overly emotional' as some have accused him. His background makes him unlikely to carelessly use the word.

I said yesterday, we are going to see a gradual creep towards the word.

Yesterday Johnson said attacks on civilians by Russian forces in the Ukrainian town of Bucha do not "look far short of genocide".

As I say, if the Germans have this, evidence is going to start piling up fairly quickly...

Following on from the George Galloway comments above I had a quick click through his followers etc. It gives the same sense of cognitive dissonance as looking at Russian coverage of the war.

For example have a look through the re-tweets of this random account:

twitter.com/LucyGatsby

Claims that Ukraine are responsible for the civilian deaths in Bucha and elsewhere, that residents of Mariupol have been liberated by the Russians, all sanctions are illegal etc.

These accounts don't appear to be shills or trolls, just from a very different echo chamber than my own.

news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-the-saviour-of-mariupol-how-fearless-mechanic-rescued-180-people-in-besieged-city-12582140
Ukraine war: The saviour of Mariupol - how fearless mechanic rescued 180 people in besieged city

Approaching the edge of the city, they joined a convoy headed for a road they had been told was a humanitarian corridor.

Suddenly, they heard the thunderous crack of Grad missiles falling on the field next to them.

They do not know where or who the missiles came from - but some of those in the convoy were hit.

And

Five of the cars in the convoy, including Aleksey's, made it to a village where many others who had escaped Mariupol were sheltering. Some of the cars in the convoy never made it.

It was when he reached that village that Aleksey made another choice.

“I remember the words of a great human being, Winston Churchill: 'War is when innocent people die for the interests of others,'" he said.

"And I remember my grandpa's words: 'It is better to die than to live all your life in fear.'

"I decided that, under these shells, under these Grad missiles, living or dead, I would continue rescuing our innocent people."

and

“I have changed the wheels on the car five times now. They were sliced by shrapnel, glass. Nine people fit into this saloon. Can you imagine this?”

and

But the city is becoming harder to access. Aleksey slept in his car for two days while he waited for the road into town to open on his last trip. In the end, he had to turn back.

He did manage to deliver supplies to those sheltering in the village outside the city, however.

Mariam Naiem
As a Russian-speaking person of color who was born and raised in Ukraine, I believe that I am in a position to speak on the issue of nationalism and neo-Nazism in Ukraine. A long thread
twitter.com/mariamposts/status/1511995713135443969

An interesting thread about racism in Ukraine and the far right movement in Europe and Russia

@K4fkaesque

Following on from the George Galloway comments above I had a quick click through his followers etc. It gives the same sense of cognitive dissonance as looking at Russian coverage of the war.

For example have a look through the re-tweets of this random account:

twitter.com/LucyGatsby

Claims that Ukraine are responsible for the civilian deaths in Bucha and elsewhere, that residents of Mariupol have been liberated by the Russians, all sanctions are illegal etc.

These accounts don't appear to be shills or trolls, just from a very different echo chamber than my own.

I remember this by Owen Jones. amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jan/26/vladimir-putin-russia-oligarch-british-left-speak-out?amp_js_v=a6&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQKKAFQArABIIACAw%3D%3D#aoh=16493342177497&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fcommentisfree%2F2016%2Fjan%2F26%2Fvladimir-putin-russia-oligarch-british-left-speak-out The Left is a bloody mess since social media took over and unfortunately some choose to live inside the echo chamber. No free thoughts left for many.

@K4fkaesque

Following on from the George Galloway comments above I had a quick click through his followers etc. It gives the same sense of cognitive dissonance as looking at Russian coverage of the war.

For example have a look through the re-tweets of this random account:

twitter.com/LucyGatsby

Claims that Ukraine are responsible for the civilian deaths in Bucha and elsewhere, that residents of Mariupol have been liberated by the Russians, all sanctions are illegal etc.

These accounts don't appear to be shills or trolls, just from a very different echo chamber than my own.

There was a story I read earlier today which kind of highlights the extent of the mad propaganda going on:

Tim White @TWMCLtd
Kharkiv alert

Russia sources say ther'll be a chemical attack in the region

Russia claims Ukraine will bomb its own chemical storage facilities in Pervomaisk, releasing 120 tons of Chlorine. They say it will be a "false flag" but Russia always blames others for what it does

When I first read this I was a little wtf??

Turns out that Major General Igor Konashenkov an official representative of the Russian Ministry of Defense told Russia 24 that a storage facility containing 120 tons of chlorine was mined and Ukraine were going to blow it up to cause the death of civilians and this will be used to blame Russians.

We also have this example.

Alec Luhn @ASLuhn
Actual state news agency headline: "The West has used weapons of mass destruction against Russia. There are casualties."
The WMD in question: A propaganda "info war against Russians."
ria.ru/20220404/zapad-1781555831.html

Note the use of words that have been used by the West. Putin has a fondness for doing so, to play to a non-western audience's sensitivities.

If thats all you are hearing its hard to imagine the world outside.

@DuncinToffee

eglantine7 the proposed Nationality and Borders bill is a depressive read though. But then a Tory MP did say that he only wanted the right kind of refugees just last week.

And the Ukraine visa scheme is proving quite a headache.

Agree. Just mean interacting with people day to day it feels White Brits with British heritage are not as unwelcoming as our hostile politicians' policies . There's also Priti Patel. The rags, the Sun, Mail, Express to stir a lot too and many are susceptible to it.

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent
Dnipro mayor: Residents not involved in critical infrastructure should evacuate.

According to Suspilne media, Borys Filatov said that the situation in eastern Ukraine is escalating. Dnipro is a regional capital in central Ukraine that borders the eastern Donetsk Oblast.

They are worried.

AFP News Agency @AFP
Russian foreign minister accuses Ukraine of 'departure' from demands at Istanbul talks

Ukraine presidential adviser urges Russia to 'lower the degree of hostility' to allow dialogue

Going well there then.

At what point do we pass the threshold where there is enough evidence to say that calling it a genocide is pretty reasonable accusation and there is a good case to answer in law?

I suppose there is more information coming out, the statements we posted about were made yesterday, the Spiegel article is more recent, then again BND did have the info, but what did they share with other intelligence agencies?

twitter.com/KasiaMadera/status/1511984630899089411?t=RlC-8E75VNmQ90eqYJ443Q&s=19

About rape as a Weapon to break morale 😢

Alec Luhn @ASLuhn
Actual state news agency headline: "The West has used weapons of mass destruction against Russia. There are casualties."
The WMD in question: A propaganda "info war against Russians."
ria.ru/20220404/zapad-1781555831.html

Note the use of words that have been used by the West. Putin has a fondness for doing so, to play to a non-western audience's sensitivities.

If thats all you are hearing its hard to imagine the world outside.

I just read the article, what he means is the media, basically he calls FB, Instagram and the media WMD.

@RedToothBrush

The Kyiv Independent *@KyivIndependent* Dnipro mayor: Residents not involved in critical infrastructure should evacuate.

According to Suspilne media, Borys Filatov said that the situation in eastern Ukraine is escalating. Dnipro is a regional capital in central Ukraine that borders the eastern Donetsk Oblast.

They are worried.

NATO needs to get its act together and get Ukraine so called offensive weapons, though why there is that distinction i don't know?

We know whats going to happen next and we are doing little to stop it...

Aside, i do get the feeling the whole issue is dissapearing from peoples radar, moving down the news agenda, politicians more concerned with their tax status, genders or energy mix.

.

@ChardonnaysPetDragon

At what point do we pass the threshold where there is enough evidence to say that calling it a genocide is pretty reasonable accusation and there is a good case to answer in law?

I suppose there is more information coming out, the statements we posted about were made yesterday, the Spiegel article is more recent, then again BND did have the info, but what did they share with other intelligence agencies?

Do you think Germany is the ONLY country with this intelligence?

I am really struggling to believe they are.

I am also struggling to believe that they haven't shared this with other intelligence agencies earlier this week before releasing to the public.

Indeed, to make my point about why I think this:

This from 19hrs ago.

Barbara Starr @barbarastarrcnn
Breaking from CNN NATSEC team: The US now believes “it will be able to identify the Russian units” that carried out the atrocities in Bucha, Ukraine, according to a US official familiar with the latest information.

Identification of those involved “is an extremely high priority now” for the US intelligence community, official says. US using all avail intel means to help Ukraine identify who conducted atrocities.

The US is also analyzing possible indicators that more than one Russian unit or group of fighters was in Bucha during the time the atrocities occurred.

"I would just tell you, just looking at the imagery, when you see individuals with their hands tied behind their backs, and evidence of being shot in the head, that certainly appears to be premeditated, appears to be planned."senior defense official--different than first official

The Americans had this information at least at the beginning of this week, had looked at it initially and then had passed onto the press that that they think they can identify those responsible. Its not as detailed as what the Der Speigel is saying but its very consistant with the report.

If the Germans and the Americans have this, I find it hard to believe the British haven't also had sight of it too. And it even more inconceivable that the Ukrainians don't have anything (which they are possibly sharing with the West to strike home the point about why they need more help).

I just don't buy it.

@ChardonnaysPetDragon

Alec Luhn *@ASLuhn* Actual state news agency headline: "The West has used weapons of mass destruction against Russia. There are casualties." *The WMD in question: A propaganda "info war against Russians." ria.ru/20220404/zapad-1781555831.html*

Note the use of words that have been used by the West. Putin has a fondness for doing so, to play to a non-western audience's sensitivities.

If thats all you are hearing its hard to imagine the world outside.

I just read the article, what he means is the media, basically he calls FB, Instagram and the media WMD.

The use of the words WMD is deliberate still though. Its designed to tie in with this idea of 'western imperalism' and 'western injustice' that already exists in the minds of many.

Its a use of language to deliberately twist and render meaning useless.

Ivan Krastev made the point that Putin wants to teach us a lesson: parts of his declaration on the annexation of Crimea, Putin took passages almost verbatim from the Kosovo declaration of independence, which was supported by the West.

And this is a reoccurring theme.

French officials have been saying about how Putin lives in a historical fantasyland of Soviet thinking.

@ChardonnaysPetDragon labelling something genocide doesn't happen straight away unfortunately...

www.reuters.com/world/who-says-making-contingency-plans-possible-chemical-assaults-ukraine-2022-04-07/
WHO says making contingency plans for possible 'chemical assaults' in Ukraine

A WHO database showed that there have been 91 attacks on Ukraine health care infrastructure resulting in 73 deaths since the invasion began, without saying who was responsible. Medical charity MSF witnessed a hospital bombing this week.

Jarno Habicht, Head of the WHO Ukraine office,said this was taking away people's hope, "because hospitals and health care facilities are the places where people go to be treated and healed."

Papowitz said she expected more deaths from illnesses that would ordinarily be easy to treat such as pneumonia and diarrhea in children.

.

An insight into how Russian TV has been portraying Ukraine over the years

Explanation on why there haven't been British diplomatic expulsions:

Shashank Joshi @shashj
My piece on mass expulsion of over 400 Russian diplomats from Europe in recent days. It means that roughly half of undeclared Russian intelligence officers in legal rezidenturas (stations) in Europe are being kicked out. A big blow to SVR, GRU & FSB.

A few other notes. No British expulsions and seemingly low Czech numbers, but UK expelled 23 in 2018 post-Skripal and Czechs 81 or so last year. Both countries also reached parity in embassy with Russia, as UK ambassador notes below. No-one left to expel.

Secondly, not all expulsions equal. In 2018 many of 153 Russians expelled by Western countries were towards end of postings; harsher to expel at beginning. And keeping numbers low depends on consistent visa refusals for known spies. That has impact on your own postings in Moscow.

Indeed the tweet he references (originally in czech)
Nick Archer @NickArcherFCDO (British Ambassador to Czech Rep)
Now would be a good time for more countries to move to "parity" like UK and Czech Rep ?

Looks like a criticism of other countries for STILL not going far enough on kicking out excess russian diplomats.