Ukraine Invasion: Part 19

[MagicFox]

Welcome friends, still going

fecking yoga mats, evil weopons of war.

More seriously, how astonishingly resourceful of the Ukrainians!

I hope from the bottom of my heart they can pull some more tricks up for the Donbass and Mariupol.

Ok very very silly question. In the Vietnam war, there was monitoring going on by other nations not far away and I was told that Gurkhas were doing some secret and entirely deadly stuff, along the lines of multiple night-kills of sleeping enemies. I don't suppose there is any chance of something similar against the Russians?

Tim White @TWMCLtd
Ukraine's Parliament is proposing a law which forces nationals abroad to return home during martial law.

The punishment for those liable for military service who refuse to return would be 10 years jail.

Some loopholes include accidents, business trips, hospitalisation

This has to make you wonder about how many casualties the Ukrainian army have taken. Comments underneath this are also worth considering:

Neil Ellis @neilellis
This sounds potentially counter-productive. It also smashes the image of Ukrainians returning in droves to protect their country. They'd have to be talking a large number of people to even make it worth the negative PR/morale.

Tim White @TWMCLtd
100% agree. I know of a lot of people who have returned voluntarily, many who don't are doing good things to raise awareness, funds etc.

I had a bit of a search to see if there was anything else about this.

I couldn't find anything on this as such but I did find this from last week which caught my eye:
en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/821682.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=%5Btwitter%5D&utm_campaign=%5Brogue_corq%5D
Rada proposes to admit foreigners to military service in intelligence agencies during martial law in Ukraine

MPs propose to amend the law On Intelligence, providing for the right to accept foreigners and stateless persons for military service in the intelligence agencies of the Ministry of Defense during the period of martial law in Ukraine or in certain of its territories.

The corresponding draft law No. 7240 On Amendments to the Law On Intelligence has been registered in the Verkhovna Rada, the website of the Parliament reports.

As noted in the explanatory note to the document, the proposed amendments to the law are aimed at developing the combat and special capabilities of the intelligence agency of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine to deter and repel the armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine, to counter hybrid and external threats.

Russia claims to have killed 32,000 Ukrainian soldiers. Even assuming a notable inflation, a lot must have died.

@Ijsbear

fecking yoga mats, evil weopons of war.

More seriously, how astonishingly resourceful of the Ukrainians!

I hope from the bottom of my heart they can pull some more tricks up for the Donbass and Mariupol.

Ok very very silly question. In the Vietnam war, there was monitoring going on by other nations not far away and I was told that Gurkhas were doing some secret and entirely deadly stuff, along the lines of multiple night-kills of sleeping enemies. I don't suppose there is any chance of something similar against the Russians?

Private military companies contracted by states are operating in many places they definitely aren't in...

Also see above post. Ukrainian want to put in a new law about 'foreign spooks welcome'. That one may not be about a lack of manpower. Indeed it might reflect google searches for 'jobs as a ukrainian spook' (more seriously, we know there's lots of people doing intelligence for free on social media around the world - they may be looking to formalise this and expand its effectiveness).

I wonder if the yoga mats are a result of the training they've been getting from the British Army. I remember my grandad telling us how his WW2 training involved the use of dinner plates as improvised anti tank mines.

@Ijsbear

Russia claims to have killed 32,000 Ukrainian soldiers. Even assuming a notable inflation, a lot must have died.

How EXACTLY do Russia count the dead?

The Ukrainians are doing it by detailing attacks (often filmed) or documenting dead bodies they've found. Use of smart phones to do this is widespread. These are men in uniform.

The Russians aren't allowed smart phones. So how are they filming what they do? Have we seen much evidence of captured cameras that aren't in smart phones?

The Russians HAVE to put out a figure above their own losses.

I think the most crucial point here is how Russian's classify 'soliders'. If they are doing counts, does this include unarmed civilians because Russia are just calling any 'suspicious looking' male over 16 a threat?

I am not saying that a lot of Ukrainian soliders haven't died. I am sure they have. What I am questioning is how the Russians have any kind of intel on this.

The US said that they had estimated which were to a low degree of reliability for Russian losses. And that would be based, at least in part, on evidence seen online. Evidence Russia isn't collecting in nearly the same way.

We also KNOW the ukrainians are using facial recognition software to help identify who the dead Russian soliders are - not just counting bodies.

Indeed Russia aren't even collecting their own dead bodies.

New Zealand will send 50 troops, eight logistics specialists and a C-130 Hercules aircraft to Europe

Now given the relationship between NZ and China that's interesting.

It's also yet another "up yours ugly" to the Putinista - I wonder what increasingly improbable threats he could make against an island half the globe from him ?

@BringBackCoffeeCreams

I wonder if the yoga mats are a result of the training they've been getting from the British Army. I remember my grandad telling us how his WW2 training involved the use of dinner plates as improvised anti tank mines.

Set Europe Ablaze ?

We also KNOW the ukrainians are using facial recognition software to help identify who the dead Russian soliders are - not just counting bodies.

Also some of the Russian "soldiers" may not exist anyway ...

Indeed given the reliability of Russian promises and statements, 32,000 is not a figure one can rely on.

Still ... there must be thousands of dead Ukrainian soldiers and that possible law implies bad things

goes to light another prayer candle for Ukraine

Hromadske Int. @Hromadske
Ukraine will build apartments for displaced people in 10 regions. The government plans to buy unfinished apartment buildings and finish them. When people's homes are restored, they will move in and these apartments will be given to the military and people who stood in line

There are currently no exact data on the number of homes needed, but as of April 11, the government has received more than 66,000 complaints from people about damaged housing as a result of a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine

Kevin Rothrock @KevinRothrock
As others have pointed out, this message doesn’t reflect the unit’s “official position,” but it’s dire, nevertheless. Threats from Russia/DNR to use “chemical troops” against the last Ukrainian troops in Mariupol are especially worrying
meduza.io/en/feature/2022/04/11/they-ve-written-us-off
‘They’ve written us off’ A Ukrainian officer says the national authorities have abandoned Mariupol’s last-standing defenders

How many soldiers are in an NZ troop please?
According to Wiki they have 6771 in total.

@Ijsbear

Indeed given the reliability of Russian promises and statements, 32,000 is not a figure one can rely on.

Still ... there must be thousands of dead Ukrainian soldiers and that possible law implies bad things

goes to light another prayer candle for Ukraine

"Tens of thousands" of dead Mariupol citizens sounded bad enough to me...

yes, for the civilians. But they can't push the Russians back like soldiers can ...

Agreed though. Mariupol must be a living hell garnished with far, far too many dead.

The Telegraph @Telegraph
Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer has said his in-person meeting with Vladimir Putin was "not friendly" and "tough".

Nehammer is the first EU leader to meet with Putin face-to-face since the start of the invasion of Ukraine

Still trying to find more detail on this but have got this so far:
www.rferl.org/a/russia-putin-nehammer-austria-talks-ukraine/31797400.html
'Hard' Talks Between Austrian Leader And Putin End After An Hour

Some context which is somewhat relevant:

Denys Shmyhal @Denys_Shmyhal - 9th April
Ukraine government official
^Held a meeting with the Federal Chancellor of 🇦🇹 @karlnehammer
in #Kyiv today. Thanked for support and consistent implementation of #EU sanctions against rf. Stressed the need to increase pressure to end the war. Discussed 🇺🇦 recovery plan and fund, developing by the Government.^

Kyle Griffin @kylegriffin1 - 10th April
Austria's Chancellor Karl Nehammer is now calling for a war crimes investigation into the Russian atrocities in Ukraine.

So its hardly a surprise that this face to face meeting has been short and not friendly.

We do however know for sure that Putin is in Moscow though. Or at least has been this afternoon.

Set Europe Ablaze ?

Dad's Army. A partially buried dinner plate looks like an anti tank mine and brings a column to a standstil, which you can then take out while they investigate the dinner plate. He also told me of nights running up and down fields with torches to make it look like a runway. They were quite ignenious.

Denys Shmyhal @Denys_Shmyhal - 9th April

Should that be Denies ?

So Russian claims of destroying the anti-aircraft system are bullshit. Why doesn’t that surprise me.

This from a US POV
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/at-what-point-do-russian-war-crimes-in-ukraine-qualify-as-genocide/
At what point do Russian war crimes in Ukraine qualify as genocide?

Its written by Bohdan Vitvitsky who has served as a Resident Legal Advisor at the US Embassy in Kyiv and as Special Advisor to Ukraine’s Prosecutor General. He has also served as a federal prosecutor in the US.

I think the key para is as follows:
The debate over whether Russia’s actions constitute genocide is not merely technical or academic in character. Acknowledging that a genocidal campaign is underway in the heart of Europe would set off all manner of geopolitical alarm bells and spark calls for action throughout the international community. However, critics of the current UN definition fear that it effectively absolves the watching world of any responsibility to respond until the genocide in question has already taken place.

Dr Charles Tannock @CharlesTannock
Believe UN are investigating this under the 1948 Genocide Convention

There's a bit of a problem here of course... the UN doing anything with agreement...

@RedToothBrush

Kevin Rothrock @KevinRothrock*
As others have pointed out, this message doesn’t reflect the unit’s “official position,” but it’s dire, nevertheless. Threats from Russia/DNR to use “chemical troops” against the last Ukrainian troops in Mariupol are especially worrying
meduza.io/en/feature/2022/04/11/they-ve-written-us-off

‘They’ve written us off’ A Ukrainian officer says the national authorities have abandoned Mariupol’s last-standing defenders‘

Do you think they have been abandoned and written off by the Ukrainian government? This is a very dispiriting thought if it is true.
They are unbelievably brave to still be there.

Missed this from yesterday:

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III @SecDef
This morning, I had the pleasure of speaking with Ukrainian troops training in the U.S. who are returning home to Ukraine today. Their bravery and skill are amazing. I made clear the U.S. will continue to provide them with the assistance they need.

Gordon Corera @gordoncorera
Russians trying to double or even treble forces in Donbas, Western officials say, but questions over how effective they will be. They estimate that out of forces originally deployed 37 or 38 Battalion Tactical Groups lo longer combat effective - leaving just over 90 available

Western officials say Russia's regrouping will take time creating an 'incredibly important window' - particularly for Western military support. They also express surprise at Russian forces failure to adapt tactics, still advancing in single line formations.

What on earth is a chemical soldier

[quote ScrollingLeaves]@RedToothBrush

Kevin Rothrock @KevinRothrock*
As others have pointed out, this message doesn’t reflect the unit’s “official position,” but it’s dire, nevertheless. Threats from Russia/DNR to use “chemical troops” against the last Ukrainian troops in Mariupol are especially worrying
meduza.io/en/feature/2022/04/11/they-ve-written-us-off

‘They’ve written us off’ A Ukrainian officer says the national authorities have abandoned Mariupol’s last-standing defenders‘

Do you think they have been abandoned and written off by the Ukrainian government? This is a very dispiriting thought if it is true.
They are unbelievably brave to still be there.[/quote]
If you read the article, the point is very much disputed.

I wouldn't be surprised if there was be trouble with communication on the ground between soliders still there, plus the increasing need to limit who was aware of communications out of Mariupol.

Zelensky did say a while ago that he didn't expect them to stay and they could leave, but there seemed to be a decision to stay on the ground.

Its possible that the sheer desparation of the situation is contributing here too.

Heart breaking though.

A few weeks ago now, while looking at FlightRadar, I noticed a Royal NZ Air Force plane over the North Sea and wondered what it was doing there.