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Ukraine Invasion: Part 19

999 replies

MagicFox · 06/04/2022 20:38

Welcome friends, still going

OP posts:
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39
DGRossetti · 11/04/2022 13:14

Seems Russia wasn't to deflect by telling Finland and Sweden not to join NATO.

I thought they were supposed to be clever and cunning ? Not quite sure based on what ? This is an excellent way to tell them to go fuck themselves without the need to fire a shot.

TL;DR is how does Finnish and Swedish fear of Russia compare to their trust in NATO ?

Ijsbear · 11/04/2022 13:16

Yes, Russia has done a good job of bringing the EU together and expanding NATO.

DuncinToffee · 11/04/2022 13:29

CNN
German armed forces are preparing the first evacuation flight carrying injured Ukrainian civilians since the beginning of the Russian invasion, a spokesperson told CNN

Natsku · 11/04/2022 13:35

TL;DR is how does Finnish and Swedish fear of Russia compare to their trust in NATO?
More of a case that fear of Russia overpowers distrust/disinclination towards of NATO

DuncinToffee · 11/04/2022 13:37

Olga Ivshina

Putin's spokesman said Russia “have suffered significant losses of troops". BBC was able to verify identities of the 1,083 Russian servicemen killed in Ukraine (they were reported by local officials or media in Russia). So what do we see and know? Thread

twitter.com/oivshina/status/1513452007033561088?s=21

DGRossetti · 11/04/2022 13:40

[quote DuncinToffee]Olga Ivshina

Putin's spokesman said Russia “have suffered significant losses of troops". BBC was able to verify identities of the 1,083 Russian servicemen killed in Ukraine (they were reported by local officials or media in Russia). So what do we see and know? Thread

twitter.com/oivshina/status/1513452007033561088?s=21[/quote]
If the reports of Russian reservists - some of whom left the army over 10 years ago - being recalled are correct, those losses are possibly understated.

KonTikki · 11/04/2022 13:42

Russia has become NATO's best friend.
Back in the day major exercises held in Germany would mean US and UK troops with a sprinkling of Dutch and German troops.
Now it will be a real smorgasbord, a pact of the Willing. No bad thing.
Not sure that the French will want to come out and play though.

DuncinToffee · 11/04/2022 13:48

DGR, very likely.

BBC reporting
Russian senior officer said to have been killed in Ukraine
Another Russian senior officer has reportedly been killed in Ukraine, becoming the latest in a string of high-ranking Russian personnel to fall since the war began 46 days ago.

According to media reports, Colonel Alexander Bespalov was commander of the 59th Guards Tank Regiment. It is unclear where or how he was killed.

News of his death was shared on a local message board - 'Overheard Novogorny' in the city of Ozersk, where Bespalov was given a funeral on Friday. The message has since been deleted.

One post, purported to be from Bespalov's sister, said that "it is impossible to put into words what pain you feel when you lose a close and dear person."

The BBC is unable to independently verify Bespalov's death.

On Friday, Ukraine claimed that about 19,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in the fighting. On 25 March, Russia put its own casualty figure at 1,351.

DGRossetti · 11/04/2022 13:53

Really, the whole Russian situation can be summed up as "If you wanted to get there, you wouldn't start from here" ...

Picked up a but more chatter about the Russian "way of doing things" being a clusterfuck too. And pretty unlikely to change. That being their over
-reliance on a monolithic "that's what the general said we do" rather than "how do we achieve what the general asked" which is more the western way - flexible and much more autonomous within the task.

DuncinToffee · 11/04/2022 13:55

Lewis Goodall
Former Finnish Prime Minister @alexstubb tells BBC World at One that he thinks a formal application to join NATO from Finland “will be made in a matter of weeks”- probably in May.

DGRossetti · 11/04/2022 14:01

@DuncinToffee

Lewis Goodall Former Finnish Prime Minister *@alexstubb* tells BBC World at One that he thinks a formal application to join NATO from Finland “will be made in a matter of weeks”- probably in May.
Sounds like it's been bought forward from Midsummer then ? Not quite sure what that tells Russia, except it rhymes with "cough" ?

Once again ... how is this "smart" of Russia ? (Not quite sure if there has been a media compact to s/Putin/Russia/ just to up the stakes ?). It's hollow desperate bluster that looks like hollow desperate bluster.

DuncinToffee · 11/04/2022 14:08

People on twitter suggesting May the 9th

DGRossetti · 11/04/2022 14:34

@DuncinToffee

People on twitter suggesting May the 9th
Mayday would be more appropriate ....
RedToothBrush · 11/04/2022 14:38

twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1513455268851552258
BlueSauron @Blue_Sauron
Ukraine’s 54th Mechanized Brigade striking a Russian column in Donetsk Oblast.

EsmaCannonball · 11/04/2022 14:40

In Mariupol the Russians have been reportedly gathering hundreds of bodies in underground passageways and burning them in the mobile crematoria. I'm starting to wonder if some of the thousands of people supposedly deported to Russia have in fact been killed. I wonder if there will be thousands unaccounted for, with nobody knowing if they are in some Russian labour camp, in a mass or impromptu grave, or turned to ash?

DGRossetti · 11/04/2022 14:47

@EsmaCannonball

In Mariupol the Russians have been reportedly gathering hundreds of bodies in underground passageways and burning them in the mobile crematoria. I'm starting to wonder if some of the thousands of people supposedly deported to Russia have in fact been killed. I wonder if there will be thousands unaccounted for, with nobody knowing if they are in some Russian labour camp, in a mass or impromptu grave, or turned to ash?
It's very expensive to kill thousands of people in a short time. Even if bullets are cheap. The time and motion has been done.
Ijsbear · 11/04/2022 14:54

Once again ... how is this "smart" of Russia ? (Not quite sure if there has been a media compact to s/Putin/Russia/ just to up the stakes ?). It's hollow desperate bluster that looks like hollow desperate bluster.

It's one old man's recreation of his childhood.

The reality of it is that Russia has been heavily weakened all round, not least because China can hardly regard it with the same gravity that it did before.

But Putin grew up in literally a cold, bullying environment from what's known of his childhood, in a Russia that was isolated and surrounded by unwilling satellites. There's a great comfort in familiar childhood situations, just note how abused children often get into abusive relationships as adults. Russia is far bigger than one man but it's that one man who leads it and has molded it into what he is comfortable with.

The fact that he literally won't allow himself near other people shows that he's living in fear. HIs humiliation of his spy chief a short while before the war shows he's a bully and does not know how to build. His dismantling of the integrity of Russian financial, economic, manufacturing and judiciary systems show there is no personal understanding that a successful system needs to run to some degree on belief in the (relative) honesty of entities.

He is deluded in that he thinks Russia is becoming more powerful. But his delusion is leading to the deaths of tens and hundreds of thousands.

RedToothBrush · 11/04/2022 14:58

Kyle Griffin @kylegriffin1
NATO is working on plans for a permanent, full-scale military force on its borders in an effort to prevent future Russian aggression, according to the organization's Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. @NBCNews

Ijsbear · 11/04/2022 15:16

The CiC of the Ukrainian forces

www.politico.com/news/2022/04/08/ukraines-iron-general-zaluzhnyy-00023901

RedToothBrush · 11/04/2022 15:30

The 65km convoy was created because the Ukrainians blew bridges, blocked the roads and people on smart phones put on social media where they were. And then the Russians cocked up by blowing the damn which meant that they couldn't go over land.

Then the Ukrainians blew up the tanks under cover of darkness by hiding under yoga mats.

www.ft.com/content/e87fdc60-0d5e-4d39-93c6-7cfd22f770e8
How Kyiv was saved by Ukrainian ingenuity as well as Russian blunders

Moscow’s forces were thwarted, too, by pieces of foam mat — the Ukrainians call them karemats — costing as little as £1.50. The mats prevent Russian thermal imaging drones from detecting human heat. “We held the karemats over our head,” said Konoko, explaining how his men moved stealthily in tiny groups at night.

In that way soldiers armed with anti-tank weapons supplied by the US, Britain and others could sneak up on the Russians, fire their deadly and accurate missiles and then slip away.

and

The house of Dmytro Lysovyy’s parents lies 200m from the railway embankment near Hostomel. The Samsung executive had come there at the beginning of the war thinking he would be safer than in Kyiv.

On the second day of the invasion elderly friends of his parents, who did not have a smartphone, called to tell them where they had seen a Russian convoy close to the airport. Lysovyy immediately opened “STOP Russian War”, a Telegram chatbot created by the security services, and input the location. He also put a pin in the Google Maps location, screenshotted it and sent that, plus everything else he knew.

“I think many others made the same report,” he said.

About 30 minutes later the convoy was attacked by the Ukrainian military. In the distance the sky glowed orange from the flames, Lysovyy recalled.

and

On the Dnieper 30km north-east of Hostomel lies the Kozarovychi dam, which controls the inflow of the smaller Irpin river. Soon after the war began the Russians attacked and damaged this dam. “It was a crucial mistake,” said Konoko — because the whole flood plain of the Irpin became inundated.

Blocked by Ukrainian resistance further south at Irpin, the Russians found it impossible to cut across eastward in significant numbers at Moschun and then turn south to attack and enter the capital. By blowing up the dam the land that lay between Hostomel and Moschun had returned to the impenetrable wetland it had been before it was built.

Alwayscheerful · 11/04/2022 15:37

[quote BringBackCoffeeCreams]New Zealand have announced that they are sending troops to Europe to help support Ukraine.

www.axios.com/new-zealand-sends-50-troops-europe-ukraine-war-help-1218f324-0ace-4e4f-a685-990e08d6dc9e.html?utm_source=facebook&tum_medium=social&ute_campaign=onhrs&fbclid=IwAR075Jd8OVRYs6_l1-uvtdRa0GbGwgcO1gZvtvUqklOVYn7LsXm6pQXAXmQ[/quote]
It takes a woman to lead the way.

RedToothBrush · 11/04/2022 15:46

[quote BringBackCoffeeCreams]New Zealand have announced that they are sending troops to Europe to help support Ukraine.

www.axios.com/new-zealand-sends-50-troops-europe-ukraine-war-help-1218f324-0ace-4e4f-a685-990e08d6dc9e.html?utm_source=facebook&tum_medium=social&ute_campaign=onhrs&fbclid=IwAR075Jd8OVRYs6_l1-uvtdRa0GbGwgcO1gZvtvUqklOVYn7LsXm6pQXAXmQ[/quote]
I think that deserves some attention cos the detail is interesting:

New Zealand will send 50 troops, eight logistics specialists and a C-130 Hercules aircraft to Europe

The country of 5 million will also donate NZ$13 million (US$9 million) in further support, "including a contribution via the United Kingdom to procure weapons and ammunition," per a statement from Ardern.

The personnel will be sent to Germany on Wednesday for two months to help with logistics, assisting partner nations and "carrying much-needed equipment and supplies to key distribution centres," according to Ardern.

It follows the deployment of nine NZ intelligence personnel, who are already in Europe

Interesting to see that there's a big push on logistics on this - and that there is a very strong coordination going on. (Remember NZ aren't part of NATO).

RedToothBrush · 11/04/2022 15:55

The Dupuy Institute (TDI) @dupuyinstitute
Some initial observations on the Russian Army Battalion Tactical Group (BTG) concept as implemented in Ukraine:

(1) BTGs are simply battalion-sized, task organized combined arms teams. All major armies have done this since WWII.

(2) The Russian Army's current emphasis on BTGs (vice regiments/brigades) is due to a lack of available manpower - they were used an as expedient during the Chechen war that the Ministry of Defense adopted wholesale in 2013 as a manpower hedge.

(3) Russian Army BTGs and doctrine are built around firepower and mobility, at the expense of manpower.

(4) Western analysts believed that Russian BTGs were capable of networking long-range fires in real time (or near real time) i.e. the 2014 Zelenopillya strike.

(5) It turns out the BTGs can't actually do this. They cannot even communicate via secure means, much less target and strike quickly and effectively at long range. This negates much of their supposed combat power advantage.

(6) The Russian BTGs appear unable to execute competent combined arms tactics. This is a fundamental failure as combined arms have been the sine qua non of modern fire and movement tactics since WWI.

(7) This shows up big in the lack of effective infantry support. BTG infantry cannot prevent Ukrainian mechanized and light infantry anti-tank hunter/killer teams from attriting their AFV, IFV, and SP artillery. This is the primary job of infantry in tank units.

(8) It is not clear if this is due to ineffective infantry forces or insufficient numbers of them in the BTGs; probably both are true.

(9) The net result is that the BTGs lack the mass (i.e. infantry) necessary to take defended urban terrain by assault. At least, not at a reasonable cost in combat losses.

(10) The leanness of the BTG manning (~ 1,000 troops) means that they cannot sustain much attrition without suffering a marked decline in combat power and effectiveness.

(11) It will take a thorough analysis to determine if the performance of the BTGs is due to inherent flaws in Russian Army personnel and training or flaws in their doctrinal approach. Again, both are probably culpable.

(12) In any case, these problems are not likely to be remedied in the short term. Fixing them will take a major reform effort.

RedToothBrush · 11/04/2022 16:04

To some up the above. The set up of the Russian army is utterly useless to begin with. They have no ability to actually take any ground because its all about the guns to blast things not the soliders to take the ground. All they can do pretty much do is destroy buildings.

Then they are sent in long convoys roads along in an exposed fashion with few men to defend themselves, where they are extremely vulnerable to guerilla warfare from men in the dark under yoga mats.