Ukraine Invasion: Part 19

[MagicFox]

Welcome friends, still going

@TargusEasting

It would be good if Mumsnet could eventually capture all threads from the beginning and put them in a new Ukraine topic. What I have enjoyed is generally people being resourceful and collegiate on here.

I agree.

Hope you all feel better soon.

After all it is in Fun & Games…. Doesn’t sit right.

Canadian Ukrainian Volunteer 🇺🇦🇨🇦✊🏻
@CanadianUkrain1

reports 'A lot of long range stuff available for us now.' much of it captured, mended, serviced, serviceable. When the UK do training (like we have been since 2015) we also train the engineers and teams behind the soldiers.

NEWS may have been a better sub-topic

I do often have to remind myself that I have some wonderful Russian friends and that some of the greatest scientific minds are Russian. I refuse to subscribe to the them and us argument. We’re all people they’re just led by barbarians who pretty successfully use propaganda to brainwash an entire population.

Trent Telenko @trenttelenko
If you have not read this ISW 🧵thread today you need to.

I've a comments to add for my own🧵.

ISW Short form:

The Russian military has hit the trained manpower wall until well into June 2022

A major "proxy" supporting this ISW thread surfaced today.

Three Russian Army lieutenants were killed acting as the driver, gunner and commander of a BMP infantry combat vehicle. 2/

Mac William Bishop @macwbishop
They’ve learned from the enemy’s example the dangers of using inexperienced crews in armored assaults. The crew of one Russian BMP was three lieutenants, none from combat arms (one was a metrologist). This is... a non-standard BMP crew.

I have blurred faces, names & birthdates.

Trent Telenko @trenttelenko
Lieutenants normally act as commanders of three vehicle platoons of Tanks, BMP's or BTR's.

That is, one commander for 3 vehicles and 8-to-19 men.

So, three lieutenants would command all the Mechanized Platoons of a Motor Rifle Company. 3/

Putting three lieutenants as the crew of a single BMP is a lot more than a desperation move.

It is a hard core signal that Russia has so run out of both trained and reliable manpower that it it putting the command staff of a Motor Rifle Company into a single armored 4/

...fighting vehicle. Consider the implications of that as you read the ISW thread.

My view is the Russians lack the trained manpower to pocket Ukrainians in the Donbas.

At best the Russians can push the Donbas line back 20-25 km, the logistical limits to their reduced truck 5/

...park from their existing rail heads.

The problem for the Russians is the arrival of the Switchblade 600 in the low hundreds, given the low Russian force density in the areas they have over run, means they will have to use railheads in Russia for Donbas.

Media reports have it that the Russians are currently disembarking troops, vehicles & ammo 55km behind the Russian border.

The Switchblade 600 has a maximum one way flight range of 50 miles/80km carrying a Javelin warhead.

If the Russians cannot stop a pair of Ukrainian Hind Helicopter gunships from rocketing Belograd, Russia fuel tanks.

They won't be able to stop a Switchblade 600 loitering munition (AKA a propeller driven mini-cruise missile) from killing Russian train engines in places

...most likely to cause a Russian "logistical heart attack" in terms of delivering the thousands of tons of artillery ammunition needed for the defense of the territory it currently has, let alone take more.

That the Ukrainians have not started immediately pushing back to take advantage of this development, to try pushing out of Kherson and relieve Mariupol also tells us something.

Ukrainian logistics have been pushed past their own breaking point.

The damage Russia has ...inflicted on the Ukrainian Military & infrastructure means they do not have some combination of the logistics, usable equipment or trained manpower for large scale mobile mechanized operations to free Mariupol out of Kherson.

Ukraine's military has pulled the Russian Army's major offensive fangs.

What we are seeing in Donbas are Russian spoiling attacks from it's 'least attrited' BTG meant to inflict material attrition on the Ukrainian Army to extend the Ukrainian logistical pause needed for ...major mobile operations.

The longer that pause, the more existing Russian troops can dig in to hold on to captured territory and the closer those June 2022 reinforcements will be for a major counter stroke against exhausted Ukrainian mobile forces.

IOW, the Russians are playing for time to get a longer attritional phase to delay/reduce the scope of future Ukrainian mobile operations with Switchblade 600 support.

We shall soon see if this will be successful.

14/end

@Igotjelly

Sorry quoted the wrong post but just flagging Serbia is not in Russia. My understanding is it has long term ties in culture etc to Russia but voted against them in the UN in recent months and is considered to be moving closer to the Weet.

Surely everybody knows that Serbia isn't in Russia?

Yeah just to clarify when I asked if giving them to Serbia meant giving them to Russia I meant covertly

References above thread

Trent Telenko @trenttelenko
An astute point which underlines the manpower bind the Russian Army is facing in Ukraine👇👇👇

B ivy stiles @ivy_istiles
Most military meteorologists serve the air assets of that branch, a few may be assigned to the staff of a division, but they're real value is in aviation mission planning, etc. Putting one in a fighting vehicle as a crewman is insane. There was absolutely no chance for success.

@ChardonnaysPetDragon wasn’t sure if it was maybe a case of mis-reading rather than not knowing.

Placemark

www.aljazeera.com/features/2022/4/6/only-the-dead-feel-no-guilt-ukrainian-refugees-on-surviving
‘Only the dead feel no guilt’: Ukrainian refugees on surviving
Survivor’s guilt is a common reaction to war, experts say, as Ukrainian refugees confront feelings of shame.

“It often feels strange to refugees that they made it to safety, while others did not,” explains Clemence Due, an associate professor in psychology at the University of Adelaide, who has researched survivor’s guilt among refugees.

War and displacement often trigger survivor’s guilt. It was first discussed after the Holocaust when survivors of the Nazis’ terror regime displayed signs of distress for having escaped a situation their peers had died in.

And

“Every Ukrainian alive right now is experiencing survivor’s guilt, to a certain extent,” says Roman Kechur, a Ukrainian psychiatrist and president of the Ukrainian confederation of psychoanalytic therapies.

“The ones who left the country feel guilty toward those who stayed. Those who stayed feel guilty toward those who are in the war-torn east. Those in the east feel guilty toward those who joined the territorial defence forces. Those in the territorial defence forces feel guilty toward the army. And those in the army feel guilty toward those who died,” he says. “Only the dead don’t feel any guilt.”

And

The guilt affects not just those who had to run from the violence, it also affects Ukrainians in the diaspora.

Any thoughts on the French results this evening? Personally feeling a little relief, it’s not done yet but vibes feel less bad.

@RedToothBrush

www.aljazeera.com/features/2022/4/6/only-the-dead-feel-no-guilt-ukrainian-refugees-on-surviving ‘Only the dead feel no guilt’: Ukrainian refugees on surviving Survivor’s guilt is a common reaction to war, experts say, as Ukrainian refugees confront feelings of shame.

“It often feels strange to refugees that they made it to safety, while others did not,” explains Clemence Due, an associate professor in psychology at the University of Adelaide, who has researched survivor’s guilt among refugees.

War and displacement often trigger survivor’s guilt. It was first discussed after the Holocaust when survivors of the Nazis’ terror regime displayed signs of distress for having escaped a situation their peers had died in.

And

“Every Ukrainian alive right now is experiencing survivor’s guilt, to a certain extent,” says Roman Kechur, a Ukrainian psychiatrist and president of the Ukrainian confederation of psychoanalytic therapies.

“The ones who left the country feel guilty toward those who stayed. Those who stayed feel guilty toward those who are in the war-torn east. Those in the east feel guilty toward those who joined the territorial defence forces. Those in the territorial defence forces feel guilty toward the army. And those in the army feel guilty toward those who died,” he says. “Only the dead don’t feel any guilt.”

And

The guilt affects not just those who had to run from the violence, it also affects Ukrainians in the diaspora.

Can you imagine the survivor's guilt to survive an attack which killed your parent, child and/or partner. What if you were the only survivor and possibly injured. Or you survived with a child that needs you to live to take care of them. This predicament is unspeakably dark.

@RedToothBrush

www.aljazeera.com/features/2022/4/6/only-the-dead-feel-no-guilt-ukrainian-refugees-on-surviving ‘Only the dead feel no guilt’: Ukrainian refugees on surviving Survivor’s guilt is a common reaction to war, experts say, as Ukrainian refugees confront feelings of shame.

“It often feels strange to refugees that they made it to safety, while others did not,” explains Clemence Due, an associate professor in psychology at the University of Adelaide, who has researched survivor’s guilt among refugees.

War and displacement often trigger survivor’s guilt. It was first discussed after the Holocaust when survivors of the Nazis’ terror regime displayed signs of distress for having escaped a situation their peers had died in.

And

“Every Ukrainian alive right now is experiencing survivor’s guilt, to a certain extent,” says Roman Kechur, a Ukrainian psychiatrist and president of the Ukrainian confederation of psychoanalytic therapies.

“The ones who left the country feel guilty toward those who stayed. Those who stayed feel guilty toward those who are in the war-torn east. Those in the east feel guilty toward those who joined the territorial defence forces. Those in the territorial defence forces feel guilty toward the army. And those in the army feel guilty toward those who died,” he says. “Only the dead don’t feel any guilt.”

And

The guilt affects not just those who had to run from the violence, it also affects Ukrainians in the diaspora.

I feel guilt also. For the last 20 years or so.

@TargusEasting get well soon. Was it you that posted about Lavs and the missing keys?

I hope Mumsnet doesn't shunt these threads off into their own topic or into the tumbleweed that is In the News (or whatever it is called now). That tends to have the effect of killing a topic off or hiding it from people who otherwise would have found it. Chat is the general section and covers everything from the very silly to the very serious. I think it's better to stay here.

@EsmaCannonball

I hope Mumsnet doesn't shunt these threads off into their own topic or into the tumbleweed that is In the News (or whatever it is called now). That tends to have the effect of killing a topic off or hiding it from people who otherwise would have found it. Chat is the general section and covers everything from the very silly to the very serious. I think it's better to stay here.

Me too, it's more visible here and more likely to be found. I agree that Fun & Games doesn't sound like the right section, but people are more likely to see it in Chat.

Thanks for clear explanation @notimagain

@MagicFox I also wondered if the surface to air missile systems would covertly find their way into Russia.

I hope you feel better soon @TargusEasting.

It's awful that people who survived attacks feel the guilt for it, whereas russians continue supporting their army and the terrorist putin.

I feel guilt also. For the last 20 years or so.

TargusEating, I am so sorry. Nobody should have to live with this and no one has the right to inflict such long lasting damage on another person. I hope one day you will find some measure of peace

Really big explosion at Mykolaiv .
twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1513246456362287119

⚡️ Massive explosion heard in Mykolaiv.

twitter.com/0aflcgzf7n6brqj/status/1513253508656648197?s=21&t=Oof08t6WUIZ3bu4tdjOOIA