Ukraine Invasion: Part 19

[MagicFox]

Welcome friends, still going

RedToothBrush, thank you for the informative post on Mr Mike Martin's view on Russian redeployment to the east of Ukraine.

He concludes: The momentum is with the Ukrainians. I think they’ll kick the Russians out. But they’ll lose 100k civilians doing it.

That level of civilian casualty is horrific. But the alternative of Russian occupation is far greater numbers, potentially millions displaced, tortured, disappeared in secret over the years. It is hard to think of the level of sacrifice and Ukrainian blood spilt needed to achieve this. I believe Ukraine is absolutely right to finish the task and up to it.

I hope the West arms Ukraine quickly to allow them to re-take their land and lives and does lots of militarily borderline offensive things behind the scenes that they cannot talk about...

@WeAreTheHeroes

The newspapers and other sources are bound to be behind Twitter due to verifying and fact checking work before they publish it/mention it themselves.

Naturally. My point was more that I wouldnt be surprised by it yet appearing in main stream media over the next couple of days.

Michael McKay @mhmck
Ukrainian defenders struck the airport at Melitopol, temporarily occupied by the Russian fascist invaders. A command-and-control point was also destroyed.

Presidential advisor Oleksiy Arestovych said this was the fifth such attack, describing Melitopol as the new Chornobayivka.

^ Ukrainian artillery in range when previously they weren't? Or artillery with a longer range???

Not verified... But i think probably credible.

Visegrad24 @visegrad24
The Ukrainian Army today reached the outskirts of Kherson and is now shelling Russian defensive lines near on the city’s periphery.

It’s time to take back Kherson from the occupants.

Inside the Efforts to Preserve Ukraine’s Cultural Heritage
www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/inside-the-efforts-to-preserve-ukraines-cultural-heritage-180979840/?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB

^ Ukrainian artillery in range when previously they weren't? Or artillery with a longer range???

There has been talk of the Ukranians trying to get hold of improved artillery..

mezha.media/en/2022/04/09/155mm-spgh-zuzana-a-modern-self-propelled-howitzer-for-the-armed-forces-of-ukraine/

Not sure if anything improved has been delivered but @TargusEasting will be the forum expert on this and best placed to comment.

I don’t think anyone would be against them joining the EU but it is still irritating that BJ is relishing this Churchillian moment of bravely going to Kyiv, he is clearly really enjoying this opportunity.

There has been talk of the Ukranians trying to get hold of improved artillery..

It will be good for Ukraine to give the Russian invaders a taste of their own continuous shelling.

I hope civilians do not get caught up in the attacks. Is that why Zelensky is asking civilians to get out of the east. I imagine the Russians to be taking human shields.

A second staff rotation at Chernobyl has finally happened. There have obviously been a lot of issues. The usual route from Slavutych to the nuclear plant in a railway, which goes through Belarus. This time they had to use boats.
www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-48-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine

So far the most generous donator of arms to Ukraine forces appears to be the Russians. soldiers with (left to right) American "FIM-92 Stinger", Soviet "Igla-1" and Polish "Piorun MANPADS" on a rooftop.

Has anyone else heard the report of China sending anti-aircraft ‘systems’ (not sure what a system is vs, say, actual anti-aircraft missiles) ie HQ-22 surface-to-air missile systems for the Serbian military? The Independent reporting on it….

@DrBlackbird

Has anyone else heard the report of China sending anti-aircraft ‘systems’ (not sure what a system is vs, say, actual anti-aircraft missiles) ie HQ-22 surface-to-air missile systems for the Serbian military? The Independent reporting on it….

That's odd, if true.

I wonder what might happen to those.

China sending them to Serbia?

So to russia? Sorry I'm really confused

Yes, but why would the Russian need them? They have their own.

Ah, being reported elsewhere. Apparently Serbia ordered them in 2019 and took delivery today (?) but in the current situation seems v provocative.

www.washingtonpost.com/world/china-makes-semi-secret-delivery-of-missiles-to-serbia/2022/04/10/94e92ad2-b8d3-11ec-a92d-c763de818c21_story.html

No to Serbia.

On the back of also selling military drones. It seems that it was suggested to China that this was not the best time but the main point was China didn't feel the need to listen to that suggestion.

Plus delivery was in 6 Chinese military planes. I wondered if any of the military folk on here thought that comes across as a bit of China flexing its military / defence equipment muscle?

@MagicFox

China sending them to Serbia?

Serbia, not Siberia

Sorry quoted the wrong post but just flagging Serbia is not in Russia. My understanding is it has long term ties in culture etc to Russia but voted against them in the UN in recent months and is considered to be moving closer to the Weet.

Anders Aslund @andersaslund
Russians continue preparations for the offensive in the east of Ukraine with the objective of establishing full control over the territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

The single positive Russian development is the unification of the command over the operation in Ukraine under General Alexander Dvornikov, the commander of the Southern MIlitary District. Previously, 5 generals commanded different parts of the operation.

Russia seems almost unable to mobilize new troops & the old troops have had it in the north. The fourth tank army reported that 90% of its tanks in storage were out of order because somebody had their electronics. Putin's regime is too kleptocratic to pursue a modern war.

Many claim that the Russians will have advantages in the Donbass. It is flat and open, suitable for World War II style tank warfare, but the fields will be hopelessly muddy for tanks and trucks until May.

Ukraine has more tanks than when the war started, while Russia has lost two-thirds of its tanks (705!). Russia has lost 136 of its 240 helicopters in the theater, so it has stopped using them for at least the last three days, while Ukraine has started helicopter operations.

Russia has also lost 151 airplanes, nearly half of its 375 planes deployed to Ukraine, and 19,100 killed soldiers. The Russian soldiers have no incentive to fight & the newly mobilized troops are few and of poor quality. Ukraine is likely to win also the battle of the Donbass.

Yet, Ukraine needs all the arms the West can deliver asap. The more arms Ukraine receives, the fewer people will die in Putin's war. Massive and early arms deliveries to Ukraine is the most peaceful measure in this war.

The single positive Russian development is the unification of the command over the operation in Ukraine under General Alexander Dvornikov, the commander of the Southern MIlitary District. Previously, 5 generals commanded different parts of the operation.

If the Russian army in the south is as f_cked as Anders Aslund makes out, that makes General Alexander Dvornikov (the butcher of Syria and suspected perpetrator of the recent missile strike on the Kramatorsk railway station)'s latest assignment somewhat of a poisoned chalice. Let's hope Ukraine puts this one to bed.

Matia Nelles
Today in the city of Kherson near the Jubilee Concert Hall a peaceful rally was held in memory of the victims of Russian aggression, the occupiers violently dispersed it, writes the first deputy chairman of the Kherson regional council Yuri Sobolevsky. /1

Journalists or Suspilne reported hearing shots from close to the demonstration and participants reported that the demonstration was quickly and violently suppressed and dispersed by Russian forces. /2
www.pravda.com.ua/news/2022/04/10/7338600/
In Kherson the military of the Russian Federation dispersed meeting, and in New Kakhovka "meeting" of Russians failed

Just to put this into perspective: the crowd is sizable. You see several hundred protestors, who take immense risk, from disappearance, to torture to worse… these are VERY brave residents. My friends in the city do not dare to attend rallies anymore (for good reasons). /3

Meanwhile, one pro-Russian “rally” was held in Nova Kakhovka, where few sportive looking men (👋🏿 titushky) were bused in with Russian flags. Absolutely staged… the second part of the picture shows residents in mid-March, when it was less dangerous to come to the streets. /4

This video shows the “organic” pro-Russian protests. Especially ominous is the distance these gentlemen keep and the men peaking from on top the building /5

The article spells out point 5 more directly saying that the Russian 'demonstration' was surrounded by Russian soldiers patrolling the perimeter and the groups of people are all weirdly spaced out.

@notimagain

^ Ukrainian artillery in range when previously they weren't? Or artillery with a longer range???

There has been talk of the Ukranians trying to get hold of improved artillery..

mezha.media/en/2022/04/09/155mm-spgh-zuzana-a-modern-self-propelled-howitzer-for-the-armed-forces-of-ukraine/

Not sure if anything improved has been delivered but @TargusEasting will be the forum expert on this and best placed to comment.

There could be a number of reasons. The right charges. The right shells; some are good for armour, some for buildings and some for dug in positions. The UA will have lost munitions and it has to get the right ones to the right places. As Russian troops are moving around there is an element of second guessing what is needed where. And yes they might have some new kit. I have always assumed the news on weapon transfers is 10-14 days out of date.

I’m taking some time out from this thread as Covid is running through the house and I’m feeling crap tonight.

It would be good if Mumsnet could eventually capture all threads from the beginning and put them in a new Ukraine topic. What I have enjoyed is generally people being resourceful and collegiate on here.

@DrBlackbird

Has anyone else heard the report of China sending anti-aircraft ‘systems’ (not sure what a system is vs, say, actual anti-aircraft missiles) ie HQ-22 surface-to-air missile systems for the Serbian military? The Independent reporting on it….

For info/sake of clarification......

In simple terms missile is 'just' the rockety bit that flies through the air towards a target.

A missile system traditionally means missile(s) plus all the associated kit that might be needed to get the missile flying and heading off in the right direction..

In the context of Surface to Air missiles (SAMs) - Something like Stinger or Starstreak the 'system" might be just be one or two people with a missile that is carried in something a bit like a tube that can popped up onto a shoulder and fired at any passing targets..

For bigger longer range stuff like S-300 or Patriot the "system" can include things like generators, search radars, fire control radars, command control truck/room, plus launchers with the missiles in them, plus possibly spare rounds....could be permanently housed in fixed buildings or inside trucks/containers if the system is a mobile one.

In short there can be a big big difference between "missile" and "missile system", but the mainstream media often don't make that distinction clear.

Hope that helps.

@TargusEasting

Thanks, Get well soon.

Austrian Chancellor travelling on Monday to meet Putin. Have any leaders actually been to see Putin since the invasion started?

You know reading some of those articles recently and those Russian soldiers are no different to the paedophile rapist pirates that called themselves ISIS. The worst of the worst and that’s what Russia has become; a large organisation of pirate gangs. From Putin, to the thieving oligarchs, to the hollow-headed bimbos cutting up Chanel bags. They even steal from each other. Those poor Russian mothers waiving their sons away on the roadside at Kursk.

Then I’m reminded that one of the worst minds is that of the arms inventors. The thoughts that go into designing a thermobaric missile or a HESH round so that it acts in a particular way on the human body is pretty barbaric also.