Page 25 | Ukraine Invasion: Part 19

Alexandra2001 · 09/04/2022 13:03

@notimagain One battery of S300 and a handful of Starstreaks does not a summer make.

I would be very much amazed if the US do not have a few spare anti aircraft missile systems, had no problem replacing Slovakia's.

On training, yes agree but had we started that training a month ago, systems would now be deployed.... we can wait another month i suppose and see where we are? or we can start the ball rolling?

We can go into the Black Sea but we'd rather see more civilians blown to bits, children deported and their parents murdered.

Best start practicing our "outrage" speeches.

notimagain · 09/04/2022 13:14

[quote Alexandra2001]@notimagain One battery of S300 and a handful of Starstreaks does not a summer make.

I would be very much amazed if the US do not have a few spare anti aircraft missile systems, had no problem replacing Slovakia's.

On training, yes agree but had we started that training a month ago, systems would now be deployed.... we can wait another month i suppose and see where we are? or we can start the ball rolling?

We can go into the Black Sea but we'd rather see more civilians blown to bits, children deported and their parents murdered.

Best start practicing our "outrage" speeches.[/quote]
Given the cost of stuff like Patriot I doubt the US has stores are crammed full of whole batteries of the system going begging...

Without knowing how many S-300s batteries the Slovakians had available, or how many Patriot batteries the US can use to backfill Slovakian defences it's hard to say whether they could donate more to the Ukraine or not....

General point on training (again) is it can be multiples of months for some systems (not just operators but engineers, etc)...One would hope that as this conflict goes on perhaps on the quiet lots of training on complex systems various is going on behind the scenes and maybe being done in places far away from the conflict.

notimagain · 09/04/2022 13:25

FWIW the Ukranians are unlikely to get Patriot itself (various reasons) but just an idea of training times on these type of air defence systems:

The initial entry training for a newbie operator is 20 weeks.

The Basic Warrant Officer course including tactics and a lot more is 35 weeks...

apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/AD1044544.pdf

Hence the provision of types such as S-300 and variants there of that Ukranian personnel are already familiar with.

Alexandra2001 · 09/04/2022 13:37

Your article said 1 battery of S300 (see i do read what is posted)

Yes the US says Patriot takes 2 or 3 months to learn how to operate, needs a team of 90 soldiers... they issued that statement 1 month ago, so that's a month wasted.

Without a decisive break through, this war could last years, Russia was in Syria for 5 years !

Alexandra2001 · 09/04/2022 13:38

...article i read said 2 to 3 months.... came from a Pentagon official back in March.

Fair point if it takes 9 months.

mids2019 · 09/04/2022 13:40

The reason I was presuming a Ukranian victory earlier is that the west has invested to much in this already for there to be anything else than a Ukranian victory. There seems to be an incremental increase in weapon provision e.g. tanks are now being provided and I am sure training is ongoing somewhere. If the war is protracted it would seem probable that this flow of weapons will only increase. I don't think a badly equipped Russian army with low morale will withstand a well armed determined Ukranian army (and let's face it the Ukranians are facing an existential threat).

I think it's the actions of a defeated humiliated Putin that worries me.

PerkingFaintly · 09/04/2022 13:42

@Hillsmakeyoustrong, I've just checked and your JustGiving page is still open for donations. It's the one you PM'd me the link for a while ago.

Thank you for doing this.

mids2019 · 09/04/2022 13:45

@ljsbear

Will the whole world unite against Putin in the event of a nuclear strike? Won't it just infuriate those already allied against him? Nuclear weapons can devestate cities yet isn't it in a horrible perverse way a way to achieve Mariupol in a fraction of a second?

I think this is the reason we have to continue to look at this.

notimagain · 09/04/2022 13:53

@Alexandra2001

...article i read said 2 to 3 months.... came from a Pentagon official back in March.

Fair point if it takes 9 months.

I think if the war goes on for months we are back to hoping training on some systems is already ongoing...

Ummm...that reminds me...there was about a squadrons worth of MiG-29s in private owners hands in the States last time I checked.....

TheABC · 09/04/2022 13:53

@mids2019, a nuclear strike would be another Chernobyl, not a bombed out city. Mauripol today can be rebuilt. A nuclear Mauripol would be uninhabitable for a long time to come.

Using nuclear weapons on European soil would be an existential threat. If Russia wants to be invaded by NATO, that would be the way to do it.

Alexandra2001 · 09/04/2022 14:07

This article says 10weeks, hi intensity course.

www.army.mil/article/96851/patriot_missile_students_run_exercise_with_uae_soldiers

mids2019 · 09/04/2022 14:34

@TheABC

Nagasaki and Hiroshima were rebuilt i.e. the half lives of any isotope released is such that the land is inhabitable in a generation.

There would be radioactive material distributed over a certain area but the Russians weren't to concerned about this at Chernobyl and the other power station they fired on.

The NATO response....I think that's the million dollar question. NATO is a defensive alliance as has been pointed out ad infinitum yet a nuclear strike in Ukraine is not on NATO soil?

Feels like a massive game if military poker with each player guarding his hand

notimagain · 09/04/2022 14:37

[quote Alexandra2001]This article says 10weeks, hi intensity course.

www.army.mil/article/96851/patriot_missile_students_run_exercise_with_uae_soldiers[/quote]
"U.S. and UAE Patriot soldiers endured a tough 10-week, 360-hour advanced individual training course which focused on maintaining, emplacing and reloading the Patriot launcher."

But no mention I can see of the likes of the decision makers and "trigger pullers"...

We can go round and round on this, I'll try not to leave it alon after this but I'll offer this last comment:

It's one thing operating a short range system such as Starstreak, Stinger etc in the field where your brief might well be - "If you see any helicopters or fast jets then centre the sights and fire....".

Operating a long range air defence system (SAM or aircraft), especially if it's operating an integral component in a wider air defence environment that perhapsc overs hundreds of square miles and might contain friendly aircraft is a much more complex job. The consequences of the operators getting it wrong can be catastrophic, even for those on the same side...hence the training, and even that is no guarantee.........

www.theguardian.com/uk/2006/oct/31/military.iraq

medium.com/war-is-boring/that-time-an-air-force-f-16-and-an-army-missile-battery-fought-each-other-bb89d7d03b7d

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 09/04/2022 14:44

@PerkingFaintly thought I closed it last night!!

Thankyou 😊

PaperTyger · 09/04/2022 14:48

Alexandra as pp said black sea is locked down.
Ridiculous to me but it Seems to be.
I know Russia has a Veto but it's better and more " diplomatic" to go in under the banner of the UN.

HappyWinter · 09/04/2022 14:50

@Iuliia Mendel

^The press secretary of Hungarian Prime Minister said that Viktor Orban condemned the massacre in Bucha.
It was stated, that Viktor Orban made it clear at a press conference on Wednesday that this is a war that the Russians started, they attacked Ukraine, and this is aggression^

Orban is finally coming round?

@FatCatThinCat
I'm struggling with reading the news stories. The photo of the horse soft toy at Kramatorsk Station finished me off as one of my kids has a similar little toy, that's even before I read about the child deportations.

TargusEasting · 09/04/2022 15:14

Boris is in Kiyv - breaking.

Igotjelly · 09/04/2022 15:16

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61052643

What could possibly go wrong with Boris in Kyiv 😑

Alexandra2001 · 09/04/2022 15:22

@PaperTyger

Alexandra as pp said black sea is locked down. Ridiculous to me but it Seems to be. I know Russia has a Veto but it's better and more " diplomatic" to go in under the banner of the UN.

Sure but Russia can bloc any UN Peace keepers being sent, so they wont be.

BS is locked down because we have let that happen, i suspect that if the US med fleet started heading towards the BS, we'd see Russia moan, complain and threaten but then lift their blockade.... long before any ships got there.

At the end of all this debate etc, we (the west) can carry on as we are doing, aghast at each new Russian atrocity or we have to do something different.

As no one on here is a Patriot operator or knows how many S300's former Warsaw pact countries have, its probably a pointless argument but i'd rather get the ball rolling on this now, instead of trotting out "it takes too long to train etc" in 6 months time when Odesa is rubble and 100k dead & 300k deported to Russia.

Alexandra2001 · 09/04/2022 15:23

@Igotjelly

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61052643

What could possibly go wrong with Boris in Kyiv 😑

The EU 's VDL was there yesterday, he had to go too :)

RedToothBrush · 09/04/2022 15:27

Embassy of Ukraine to Uk @ukrembuk
Surprise 😉

RedToothBrush · 09/04/2022 15:33

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/boris-johnson-volodymy-zelenskyy_uk_625195dde4b052d2bd5537e2?ncid_tag=tweetlnkukhpmg00000001&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=uk_main
Boris Johnson Flies To Kyiv For 'Surprise' Meeting With Volodymyr Zelenskyy
The prime minister held talks 'in a show of solidarity' with the Ukrainian president.

RedToothBrush · 09/04/2022 15:36

Jimmy @jimmysecuk
Number Ten: "The Prime Minister travelled to Ukraine to meet President Zelensky in person, in a show of solidarity with the Ukrainian people. They will discuss the UK’s long term support to Ukraine and the PM will set out a new package of financial and military aid."

notimagain · 09/04/2022 15:38

As no one on here is a Patriot operator or knows how many S300's former Warsaw pact countries have, its probably a pointless argument but i'd rather get the ball rolling on this now, instead of trotting out "it takes too long to train etc" in 6 months time when Odesa is rubble and 100k dead & 300k deported to Russia.

....So in the spirit of being constructive can I ask what do you actually suggest that is credible, feasible and can be done right now?

JacquelineCarlyle · 09/04/2022 15:51

@Hillsmakeyoustrong please PM me the link to your just giving page as I'd like to donate. Thank you for what you're doing.