Ukraine Invasion: Part 19

[MagicFox]

Welcome friends, still going

Duncin no!

Don't let the architect ruin that incredibly beautiful old architecture!

It looks like a travel lodge

Lawrence Freedman's latest : don't recall this being posted earlier.

samf.substack.com/p/the-russo-ukraine-war-phase-two/comments

@MagicFox

We all feel emotional and angry. We still shouldn't be calling for and normalising world/nuclear war

MagicFox if this was aimed at me I am definitely not calling for or normalising world/nuclear war. I don't think anyone wants that, not even Putin. I am saying however that we cannot allow Putin and the Russian army to get away with genocide because he keeps sabre rattling. I don't advocate dropping bombs on Russia, I do advocate doing whatever it takes to push Russian troops out of Ukraine. They are the aggressor. Luckily no one is asking me for my opinion either way!

Ok thanks for clarifying, we're on the same page!

@FatCatThinCat

I find myself crying every day now as the horrors unfold. But the forced adoption of Ukrainian children has done me in completely. The agony of those children and their families. I think I'd rather die.

Yes, after this, it is hard to believe in humanity. It seems hopeless. There seems to be poisonous seeds of evil that keep germinating.

Thank you for the replies above.

I really don't know what a peace after this conflict will look like. If the Russians are eventually beaten and we have a broken and humiliated army retreating to border towns will the Ukranians follow them to (a) degrade a still hostile force to prevent future attack (b) vengeance for the suffering brought on its people. I think this may be a concerning end game for the west to navigate

There is going to be a problem with the already separist states with possible full occupation of the Ukranian army and I think if peace keeping soldiers could ever be a consideration it is here where they may be necessary.

Good point about China earlier and its position as a new superpower as a balance to the US. Would China consider becoming a military super power? I can see the desire to become a cultural and economic power but does China have any territorial ambitions?

Its interesting to see the range of weaponry now being supplied to Ukraine. I wonder if someone has wargamed this scenario so the provision and scheduling if arms may have been pre calculated? (Given the duration of the war preparation by Ukraine)?

Would China consider becoming a military super power? I can see the desire to become a cultural and economic power but does China have any territorial ambitions?

... it already is on the way.

As for territorial ambitions - Taiwan! (decades ago there were two factions competing for the control of China. The Maoist faction won; the defeated nationalist faction withdrew to Taiwan. But Taiwan is a small powerhouse that punches above its weight and China wants it back badly).

Beyond that China is extending its influence by economic means, by loaning money and its considerable expertise to less developed countries to improve the infrastructure. Some of the loans are at punitive rates of interest but they -are- bringing infrastructure to places that need it. So naturally, their influence is growing there.

@ljsbear

Would a strike against Tawain mean a western response? We couldn't use sanctions given the economic force if China and the effect in our own economies. Supplying military assistance to an island state is a problem. Direct conflict is WW3?

What's to stop China?

Would China consider becoming a military super power?

Right now China has one of the largest standing armies in the world, been a member of the nuclear club with A and H bombs for decades, ballistic missiles to deliver them.

It's already there.

Naive question but what kind of picture of the world is this? Are military superpowers about defence as a deterrent or about planned eventual aggression?

Kyiv Independent reporting

Ukraine charges head of Mariupol occupation administration with high treason.

Russia's proxies in Donetsk Oblast on April 6 named Kostyantyn Ivashchenko, a member of the Mariupol city council from a pro-Kremlin party, a "mayor" of the Russian-occupied parts of Mariupol.

I don't know if it would mean a western response beyond verbal condemnation. I've studied some history but don't have the training to see the currrents at play.

China's star is rising after the 'century of humiliation', of which the West bear a considerable responsibility. Britain's behaviour towards China in the past has been reprehensible and the repercussions are still going on.

Don't know if direct conflict there = WW3.

I suspect, and it's only my view, that China is not yet ready to take Taiwan. But they dislike the West strongly for both historical and cultural reasons (the Western and Chinese political systems are incompatible). However the West is their main trading partner and they value the trade relationship highly, which is why Trump pissing all of Asia, SE Asia as well, was a really fucking stupid idea. Still, at this point they are reluctant to risk that trade. That's also why they aren't openly supporting Russia.. Admittedly they've got both legs dangling on the Russian side of the fence, but they haven't openly gone in with visible military aid.

The Western trade reliance is partly why they are trying hard to become more self-sufficient. When they reach that point? Better people than me will have more idea. They do value stability over all though for good reason and there would be quite an outcry if they took Taiwan.

tldr: I don't know but I suspect they don't feel ready to take Taiwan yet. No, I don't think it would be WW3.

I agree with @ljsbear.

China is already a military superpower. Which is one of the reasons why Japan and Taiwan have the backing of the USA. If China plans to expand, it will be in the next decade as a) Xi will not be around forever and he wants a legacy and b) China has a demographic bulge of young men that are unlikely to ever get married, given the sex imbalance over there. If China leaves it any longer, the country loses our on that demographic dividend as it ages. Like Russia, it has massive concerns over it's fertility and birthrates.

Absolutely horrible to think of those children being forcibly adopted, or worse. Some days, like today, this just feels more hopeless. Though I know its not hopeless, especially if we help Ukraine more.

Thinking too, about after the way, Ukraine will need so much help rebuilding too. Zelensky asked yesterday for Finland to help rebuild their education system which of course we will do, but there's so much more that will need to be rebuilt, I just hope the West doesn't run out of will to help with the financial costs of all that.

China despises the West and with good reason, when you look at our history with them. A 100 years is nowhere near enough to forget. Which is worth remembering in light of the Ukrainian conflict. I would not be surprised if the former Soviet countries end up creating their own "iron curtain" to shut out Russia in the future. No one is going to forget this in a hurry.

Going back to the "China issue," it's up against several other nuclear powers in the Pacific. Taiwan's conflict is always a clear and present danger but we tend to ignore the potential for India and China triggering a war.

What is Ukrainian politics going to look like over the next 5 years or a decade? I am going to assume an eventual Ukranian victory.

Ukraine is a democracy and potentially a member of the EU but will the political focus of the country be very much on post war repair and importantly defence

Without security guarentees which to my mind is a de facto joining of NATO Ukraine will be responsible for its defence against a Russian state that may at some future point wish to reinvade. Will Ukrainians wish to develop nuclear missiles for this eventuality or at least modernise it's military.

Given the experience of the Ukranian people I cannot see them being easy with the prospect of Russia potentially rearming and revisiting this in 20 years time (or less).

There might be Natsku. Russia has alienated the West and USA to the point that defense spending will go up and the Eastern European countries will be seen as the front line against Russia. There might be non-military money going in to bolster them and to spread the Western values.

I'm afraid the chances of the forcibly-adopted children are very low that they will be reunited with their families. Orphanages and re-education at best for them.

I hope we will be able trace those kids in Russia. It sounds like a horror novel; parents dead; kidnapped from a war zone and trafficked abroad. DH pointed out that a lot of farmers will take kids on in the rural areas as extra hands; no one ever needs to know the paperwork.

@Ijsbear

Agree with the bulk of your last post..

I don't know but I suspect they don't feel ready to take Taiwan yet

I wonder (as do others) if they have watched the Russian performance against the Ukraine and might have decided that an opposed landing against forces armed with western ordnance might not be the smartest idea...

What is Ukrainian politics going to look like over the next 5 years or a decade? I am going to assume an eventual Ukranian victory

Assuming .. assuming ... they win - no idea but I don't think Russian sympathisers will get very far.

Ukraine is a democracy and potentially a member of the EU but will the political focus of the country be very much on post war repair and importantly defence

Yup

Without security guarentees which to my mind is a de facto joining of NATO Ukraine will be responsible for its defence against a Russian state that may at some future point wish to reinvade. Will Ukrainians wish to develop nuclear missiles for this eventuality or at least modernise it's military

I should think so though I'm not sure anyone will allow them to have them. They used to have nuclear missiles actually and gave them up to Russia in 1996 for a guarentee of independence from Russian, USA and others (Memorandum of Budapest iirc). Less than 30 years ago.

Given the experience of the Ukranian people I cannot see them being easy with the prospect of Russia potentially rearming and revisiting this in 20 years time (or less).

No but they can't stop it. But for the coming time the USA will probably back up any Eastern European country who are threatened, unless you get another nutjob like Trump in power. God knows what he'd do.

@notimagain Yeah. No idea how big Taiwan's armed forces are ...

But China is watching all this very, very closely and state media are firmly on Russia's side ...

Another concern I have is the use of a tactical nuclear missile on Ukrainian soil.

The only time a nuclear weapon has been used in history a quick victory was given to the US without the bloody business of invading the Japanese mainland

Would it be to the Russian advantage especially given its conventional capability to use a nuclear weapon to utterly demoralise Ukranian forces?

Before the war I thought the Russians wouldn't use such an indiscriminate weapon but given their barbarism I am now unsure. To my mind the only thing preventing the use of a nuclear weapon is fear of a devestating western response. The response to this for maybe obvious reasons hasn't been explicitly stated by the west but I am sure the response is known.

@PaperTyger

NATO has been useless but it's a defensive alliance and Ukraine Just isn't in it!

The UN however has sent peace force's into other countries and is best place to go in here to protect Chernobyl, and hold the line from areas of Russian retreat.

Surely it's the shelling the Ukrainans need help to stop.
Munitions to shop that.

UN ? Russia has a veto!

But even if that were got round, the UN doesn't have any forces of its own, reliant on individual member states.

Which is why, initially it was NATO that went into the Balkans first.

You go on about this but the skies and the Black Sea has to be secured or this force could come under long range air and sea attack but you don't want to do this....

Before the war I thought the Russians wouldn't use such an indiscriminate weapon but given their barbarism I am now unsure. To my mind the only thing preventing the use of a nuclear weapon is fear of a devestating western response. The response to this for maybe obvious reasons hasn't been explicitly stated by the west but I am sure the response is known.

Exactly that. If they could have taken over Ukraine easily it would not be a concern. Now? While it seems unlikely, it's not absolutely impossible.

However, it would unite the entire world against Putin and first, second, third, fourth and fifth he's a survivor. So yeah, it seems unlikely .. though not impossible.