Ukraine Invasion Part 18

[Ijsbear]

Place for information, discussion, points of view, useful links and above all, a hope that this sovereign land can regain its freedom.

“MagicFox

Thoughts on this depressing interview with a former Kremlin advisor; this sums up the Russian position vis a vis what's victory and defeat pretty frighteningly: www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/ukraine/2022/04/russia-cannot-afford-to-lose-so-we-need-a-kind-of-a-victory-sergey-karaganov-on-what-putin-wants“

That is frightening and depressing.
He does make it seem as though Ukraine having wanted to join NATO was the reason for the invasion. It also seems that anything other than a pro Russian puppet government in Ukraine would be unacceptable to Russia.

I wonder if he right about the break down of the West and in the end, the end of democracy?

unless we start to work through the very challenging logistics and think about the longer term.

Sadly the UK has a poor record recently of thinking through long term strategies.

@DrBlackbird I think the one thing now that will permanently change is that no one will believe a word that Putin says. So he will regroup and he will push for more war, but at least the West won't be quite such easy picking.

He might concentrate on non-violent means of getting Hungary under his control once the Ukraine war is settled one way or another.

@ScrollingLeaves God, I hope not. But seeing it articulated has made me feel really despairing.

Sky news.

Disturbed radioactive waste from the Forrest's now taken on tyre's and people into Belarus and Russia.

^www.bellingcat.com/news/rest-of-world/2022/04/01/food-delivery-leak-unmasks-russian-security-agents/^

Careful how you order your food if you work in a sensitive area! :)

So the Result of todays election in Hungary will be very interesting in terms of Russias next move in that direction

@ljsbear you’d really hope so…

Christo Grozev

As noticed by many Ukrainians, Kadyrov made the #Moscow4 blunder to publish a video showing SOBR Spetsnaz delivering what he said was Russian humanitarian aid to Mariupol residents. The video in fact showed Kadyrovites give people obviously looted Ukrainian products.
Clearly visible in the video the Ukrainian label for flour (Борошно), definitely hard to get in Grozny where he said the aid came from. Many other Ukrainian labels visible too. The video has since been deleted and replaced with one where mostly water is visible

twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1510556252019073027?s=21

@DrBlackbird
I believe the equipment provided to Ukraine is often already there when the announcement to send it is made. The first announcement of Starstreak was about 30 days before first being used. It is not a case of loading up a Hercules and flying into Romania with trucks ready to convey the equipment into battle. That would be too easily tracked and destroyed, which may explain the observers base bombing in West Ukraine. A constant flow of equipment will be needed now, but ultimately it is personnel who need to use it. Russia has a bigger pool of men of fighting age and reservists. I am sceptical of any weapons being provided by India or Pakistan at this stage. Bandages, meals, night vision etc, probably. But they will understand that US intelligence is comprehensive and they will fear it.

I believe Russia will prevail in taking and holding onto about half of the land to the east of the Dnieper. Pretty much draw a line from Kharkiv to Zaporizhzhia. From that line they will not be pushed back into Russia. But fighting will continue for a couple of years. The Russian army will rebuild militarily over the next two decades and will be split on to what extent that will need to include Chinese equipment - they will not trust it. The big unknown for me is what sort of security guarantee can Ukraine obtain and from whom? If Germany starts to water down its recent pledges in the next 18 months then Europe faces an existential threat from the Kremlin.

Russian denial

Will Vernon @BBCWillVernon
The official Telegram channel of the Russian Defence Ministry has reposted a claim that reports of civilian deaths in the town of Bucha are “fake”. Bucha was recently retaken by Ukrainian forces

The report that was reposted by the MOD said articles on Bucha appeared “in several foreign media” simultaneously, “suggesting a planned media campaign.” The report says Rus forces left Bucha on 30 March: “where have these pictures been for 4 days? The absence confirms the fake”

The post claimed one video from Bucha shows signs of being faked. It says that during two points, the corpses in the footage move. BBC Moscow journalists watched the footage, including slowed down, and saw no evidence of movement from the bodies.

The Russian Defence Ministry have not yet commented officially on the situation in Bucha. The report mentioned above was reposted by the Ministry in its official Telegram channel.

Videos from Bucha, which show corpses in civilian clothes lying in the road, some of them apparently with their hands tied, have shocked the world. AFP journalists also witnessed the scene in the video mentioned above.

@Ijsbear

unless we start to work through the very challenging logistics and think about the longer term.

Sadly the UK has a poor record recently of thinking through long term strategies.

@DrBlackbird I think the one thing now that will permanently change is that no one will believe a word that Putin says. So he will regroup and he will push for more war, but at least the West won't be quite such easy picking.

He might concentrate on non-violent means of getting Hungary under his control once the Ukraine war is settled one way or another.

Putin is old, possibly very ill and will be gone within 5 years and then the 'West will want their oil/gas/minerals and grain.

The war in Ukraine (and sanctions) will be a distant memory for us.

Aside, i hope those who had a great deal of sympathy for Russian soldiers on earlier threads, will note the mass graves, summary executions and bodies left in the streets as Russia redeploys, we can see that this so called "liberating" army has zero discipline and acted just as they did as they swept through Germany towards Berlin in WW2, yesterday i found out that an elderly lady who lived nearby us, suffered terribly at the hands of the Red Army, one of her older relatives far worse.

War is terrible indeed.

@DuncinToffee
They really do not understand how press in the West works do they?

[quote MagicFox]Thoughts on this depressing interview with a former Kremlin advisor; this sums up the Russian position vis a vis what's victory and defeat pretty frighteningly: www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/ukraine/2022/04/russia-cannot-afford-to-lose-so-we-need-a-kind-of-a-victory-sergey-karaganov-on-what-putin-wants[/quote]
Don’t you think that these statements are just more propaganda? Or, if not quite propaganda then another means of ‘communication’ or positioning perhaps viz with Biden and the US. Rather than any sort of ‘honest’ analysis.

Given how the interview starts with So the first objective is to end Nato’s expansion. Two other objectives have been added: one is the demilitarisation of Ukraine; the other is denazification, because there are people in the Russian government concerned with the rise of ultra-nationalism in Ukraine to the extent that they think it is beginning to resemble Germany in the 1930s. Now that’s got to be just completely fabricated lies.

And throws in There is also an aim to free the Donbas republics of eight years of constant bombardment is also a convenient reframing of what’s been happening.

a strong belief that war with Ukraine was inevitable – maybe three or four years from now – which could well have taken place on Russian territory itself Crazy to suggest that Ukraine was sufficiently insane to consider attacking Russia?

And then repeating nonsense about Ukraine’s lack of state building capacity to justify a puppet govt.

The most genuine statement seemed to be But I am part of Russia, so I only wish that we win, whatever that means

[quote TargusEasting]@DuncinToffee
They really do not understand how press in the West works do they?[/quote]
Press and SM in general I think.

Plenty in the West find themselves in the same position, stupidity or arrogance, or both?

Thanks for your thoughts @TargusEasting all very sobering.

@RedToothBrush - please can you point out where I made any assumptions to your personal contribution?

IMHO your words are sneery and judgmental here:

“There’s a really dismissive and head in the sand approach going on from people volunteering”

“A friend of mine is trying to get visas for a family who are still in Ukraine and haven't yet been able to get out. She's a really lovely lady, but I can't help but think she's also not the most worldly of women too. She's got kids and it does make me wonder how thats going to go.”

“I know a few people who have signed up, and when I've talked to them, none have really thought about this side of things. I think it will be a real shock to some. And they aren't the type to be digging about on twitter either...”

“People aren't thinking it through. I know there are already some arriving here which is wonderful but yeah... Going to be an interesting local experiment...”

Being realistic and practical is thinking ahead for issues AS WELL AS looking for solutions to support as best we can together.

In my area we have 15 households lined up to host who are supported by other locals who aren’t hosting but through a buddy system who will step up to help the guests and hosts with lifts, food, donations, form filling etc. It’s a team effort.

Of course our guests will be traumatised - but we can offer peace, warmth and safety, compassion and friendship which will go some way to healing. We can also inform ourselves of trauma informed / sensitive communication and care (which is not therapy but reduces the risk of trauma being exacerbated). We also have professional MH charity on board for counselling.

Pmk

They need to open up more refugee centres over here and they're considering turning the old hospital in my town into one. Problem is, its outside of town, there are no buses running along that road (well there's not much in the way of buses in my town at all) so they will have to walk several kilometres just to go to the nearest shop, let alone trying to find jobs and whatnot. Does not strike me as the best idea, especially when we have a lot of empty apartments right in town that could be used instead (were used during the 2015 refugee crisis). Sometimes I wonder who is put in charge of thinking of these things!

[quote DFOD]@RedToothBrush - please can you point out where I made any assumptions to your personal contribution?

IMHO your words are sneery and judgmental here:

“There’s a really dismissive and head in the sand approach going on from people volunteering”

“A friend of mine is trying to get visas for a family who are still in Ukraine and haven't yet been able to get out. She's a really lovely lady, but I can't help but think she's also not the most worldly of women too. She's got kids and it does make me wonder how thats going to go.”

“I know a few people who have signed up, and when I've talked to them, none have really thought about this side of things. I think it will be a real shock to some. And they aren't the type to be digging about on twitter either...”

“People aren't thinking it through. I know there are already some arriving here which is wonderful but yeah... Going to be an interesting local experiment...”

Being realistic and practical is thinking ahead for issues AS WELL AS looking for solutions to support as best we can together.

In my area we have 15 households lined up to host who are supported by other locals who aren’t hosting but through a buddy system who will step up to help the guests and hosts with lifts, food, donations, form filling etc. It’s a team effort.

Of course our guests will be traumatised - but we can offer peace, warmth and safety, compassion and friendship which will go some way to healing. We can also inform ourselves of trauma informed / sensitive communication and care (which is not therapy but reduces the risk of trauma being exacerbated). We also have professional MH charity on board for counselling.[/quote]

I don't think people are trying to be sneering.

It sounds as though you and your local community are doing a really good job and I for one am incredibly grateful to the people who are in a position to open up their homes and have thought through what support is going to be needed way beyond providing a roof over someone's head.

The problem though is that it seems to be a very mixed bag - my experiences on my local FB group are like RTB's - very varied (I can't host but I've offered my support to those who can).

There are definitely a good number of people who've put a huge amount of effort into mobilising wider support re: links with charities, counselling and the local Ukrainian community. But there are also many who seem really very naive about what they are taking on. One example was a host who didn't think trauma would be an issue because her family (mother and two small children) had got out early and hadn't experienced the shelling. It had to be pointed out that leaving everything you owned apart from the contents of a suitcase and leaving your husband, brother and father to fight a war and knowing you may never see them again was inherently traumatising for her and her children.

That is the problem I think, that the scheme isn't universal and it relies on individuals to have a good understanding of what they are taking on. Some hosts will be brilliant but there will be others who are woefully underprepared and I do worry for both the families and the hosts in those circumstances.

In the absence of government support , we can only step up as individuals and offer shelter to refugees.
Where communities come together to support each other it will make the task a little easier whilst hopefully strengthening our own community bonds and relationships.
For those without excess income the financial burden is worrying but perhaps the payment to hosts will go towards some of the huge utility bills we can all expect.

Gabriel Milland @gabrielmilland
I think those images from Bucha and elsewhere are going to have a big effect in Germany. There is going to be serious thought about whether continued gas purchases should be funding Einsatzgruppen.

Ben Clifford @benclifford
I've been helping Ukrainian refugees arriving at Berlin Hauptbahnhof for a month. Now that the initial excitement has died down, we're running out of volunteers to keep our operation going, even though there are hundreds (maybe still thousands) of people arriving every day...

Thats the other problem...

Rescuers have finally been able to reach a dog shelter in Borodyanka on the outskirts of Kyiv. 300 of the dogs have died of dehydration and starvation. The surviving dogs, about 150, are in a bad way.

I mentioned upthread about neo-nazi graffiti being sprayed near murdered civilians in Bucha. From an article I read in Spiegel International it seems the Russians are heavily graffiti-spraying areas they have occupied.

Shashank Joshi @shashj
Russia "also generating 10 new battalion tactical groups, the core fighting unit of the Russian army, to replace some of those lost in the first weeks of fighting, said a senior Western official"

"Of the 120 battalion tactical groups that went into action in Ukraine, at least 20 have been rendered inoperative by losses of men and equipment, he said — a figure likely to be higher since the Ukrainian advances"

@RedToothBrush

Ben Clifford *@benclifford* I've been helping Ukrainian refugees arriving at Berlin Hauptbahnhof for a month. Now that the initial excitement has died down, we're running out of volunteers to keep our operation going, even though there are hundreds (maybe still thousands) of people arriving every day...

Thats the other problem...

Negative naysaying tone yet again which is unhelpful and demoralising. Of course compassion fatigue is a reality so why not propose solutions to keep the issue front of mind? Its hardly a new phenomenon in the charity / volunteer sector.