Ukraine Invasion Part 18

[Ijsbear]

Place for information, discussion, points of view, useful links and above all, a hope that this sovereign land can regain its freedom.

[quote DFOD]@RedToothBrush do you realise that you come across as sneery and judgmental on others who have chosen to host Ukrainian guests? Why is that?[/quote]
Why is that? I am not being judgmental and sneery. Im being practical about it and reflecting on what I seeing and the big gap between expectations and reality.

These Ukrainians are potentially very vulnerable people need the right support. We need to be honest and upfront about this and to prepare for it adequately. Even if you don't host, for whatever reason you can support locally and that includes this type of knowledge and in other practical support. I know that there will be Ukrainian children arriving in my sons school shortly for example...

Btw, what makes you think I'm not actively involved in trying to help? Its rather sneery to assume I'm not...

Any military-folk assessment of the tally of destroyed stuff?

@Hillsmakeyoustrong I think you are right, unfortunately the government probably won't step up to provide support, it's wishful thinking on my part @Igotjelly says they aren't providing adequate mental health support now. Many things here fall to volunteers and they aren't always trained or prepared for it.

@RedToothBrush There's a Ukrainian cultural centre in Cheetham Hill, they might be able to help connect the refugees into the existing Ukrainian community in Manchester for support. I know it would not be the specialist support for trauma that many will need, but it might help to speak with other refugees or others from their home country who may have a greater understanding of what they are going through, as many of their relatives will be facing the same.

Odessa hit badly overnight. More strategic logistics targets by the look of it. Apparently Ukraine requested that targets weren't identified and published. The BBC and CNN have both published photos which effectively break the current laws on this...

Anyway

Tim White @TWMCltd
#Ukraine's Presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovich reckons this war will be decided in 2-3 weeks

He points to the coming showdown in the #Donbas.
But he also gave hope for #Azov and other defenders still holding out in #Mariupol', saying for first time it needs to be liberated.

A few points about that.

First Ukrainian now has 2 to 3 golden weeks to do all they can before Russia manages to regroup effectively. In the meantime all they can do is try and seriously disrupt logistics for the Ukrainians.

Then there's that point where Russia starts to run out of stuff - military equipment and spares and anything to do with maintenance.

And VE days celebrations.

Ukraine has a reason to want to liberate Mariupol after seeing whats in Irpin, Bucha and Hostomel. Getting to Mariupol is both strategic in terms of the port and southern Ukraine generally. But also it will show up warcrimes so serves a moral and legal purpose...

Interesting to see them now saying openly that its their military goal now.

Being realistic isn’t the same as being sneery and judgemental.

Thoughts on this depressing interview with a former Kremlin advisor; this sums up the Russian position vis a vis what's victory and defeat pretty frighteningly: www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/ukraine/2022/04/russia-cannot-afford-to-lose-so-we-need-a-kind-of-a-victory-sergey-karaganov-on-what-putin-wants

@RedToothBrush. Absolutely agree. Something that struck me was how are busy working families with all the trappings (after school activities etc) going to have the time to orientate their guests to life in the UK. Most will have full time jobs and other responsibilities. Are they going to take holiday time to devote to their guests ?
I spoke to an older lady the other day, non existent english but desperate for a job yet even a cleaning job needs some comprehension of the language. Sadly there will be a huge reality crunch for some leading to depression and other mental health issues on top of existing trauma. And don't mention the posts where hosts are talking about 'ready made' friends for their children...

@RedToothBrush I've just had a look at the facebook page for the Ukrainian cultural centre, they have a lot of cultural activities, there's an Easter activity for the traditional painting of Easter eggs.

[quote Kreuzberg]@RedToothBrush. Absolutely agree. Something that struck me was how are busy working families with all the trappings (after school activities etc) going to have the time to orientate their guests to life in the UK. Most will have full time jobs and other responsibilities. Are they going to take holiday time to devote to their guests ?
I spoke to an older lady the other day, non existent english but desperate for a job yet even a cleaning job needs some comprehension of the language. Sadly there will be a huge reality crunch for some leading to depression and other mental health issues on top of existing trauma. And don't mention the posts where hosts are talking about 'ready made' friends for their children...[/quote]
The cynic in me wonders if the scheme has been set up to fail so the government can say 'we tried but look what happens' to try and stop more visas both now and in the future.

I'm very cautious about it.

I want this to be a success. It HAS to succeed. The more we are open and honest about this the better.

Indeed its funny you should say about the busy people thing. Thats definitely what I'm seeing.

I was talking to a friend last night who has signed up to host Ukrainians, she is already doing research on help for trauma that adults and children, that might be available in the area and checking for groups that have been set up for social contact. She is very aware of what she can offer and what is likely to still be needed, extremely practical about it. She used to be a children's social worker working with abused children so she is hoping to be of use

Odessa hit badly overnight. More strategic logistics targets by the look of it. Apparently Ukraine requested that targets weren't identified and published. The BBC and CNN have both published photos which effectively break the current laws on this...

That's been a problem for several decades and has got worse with the increase in rolling 24 hour live coverage of the battlefield.

Take the hit on the oil facility in Lviv a week or two back. - Whoever launched it didn't have to organise a post strike overflight or even wait for feedback from assets on the ground to do battle damage assessment...they just watched the newsfeeds.

There's lots of good work done by journalists on the ground in conflicts like this but some of what they show can be quite unhelpful.

[quote HappyWinter]**@Hillsmakeyoustrong* I think you are right, unfortunately the government probably won't step up to provide support, it's wishful thinking on my part @Igotjelly* says they aren't providing adequate mental health support now. Many things here fall to volunteers and they aren't always trained or prepared for it.

@RedToothBrush There's a Ukrainian cultural centre in Cheetham Hill, they might be able to help connect the refugees into the existing Ukrainian community in Manchester for support. I know it would not be the specialist support for trauma that many will need, but it might help to speak with other refugees or others from their home country who may have a greater understanding of what they are going through, as many of their relatives will be facing the same.[/quote]
In Manchester.

And there in lies the issue, if you don't live IN Central Manchester. How do Ukrainian refugees access it?

Thats the point refugee charities themselves have made.

I would be willing to bet if you do a map of where homes are being offered versus the best places for refugees as advised by refugee charities there will be a different geographical spread.

@minsmum

I was talking to a friend last night who has signed up to host Ukrainians, she is already doing research on help for trauma that adults and children, that might be available in the area and checking for groups that have been set up for social contact. She is very aware of what she can offer and what is likely to still be needed, extremely practical about it. She used to be a children's social worker working with abused children so she is hoping to be of use

I really really hope that there are lots of people like this or are at least seriously thinking about gathering this knowledge about what they really need to know.

Its not what I'm seeing at ground level as a rule though. That frightens me.

@RedToothBrush At least Manchester does have that, other areas may not, but I do see the problem. The outer areas are not very well connected, unless they are next to the train (not always frequent) or tram (which only goes so far out of the city).

Is the idea now to give them tanks to push back the Russians and hold them off?

Now they are in retreat?
If Russia is re grouping so can Ukraine?

What will happen to all the damaged area's?
Can the West go in to try and assist the clean up or is it too dangerous still as a war zone?
Can un go in as a peace keeping force to help as they try and clean u up and re build?

@Ijsbear

Any military-folk assessment of the tally of destroyed stuff?

It’s almost impossible to assess at this stage.

I am sceptical of the Ukraine claims in Russian equipment losses. We would likely have seen more evidence of plane and helicopter losses in particular. The Russian soldier loss figure is more believable, but you could probable shave a third off, so 12,000 which in itself is material.

Ukrainian losses do not appear to be published but these will be substantial. At least 10,000 soldiers, probably significantly more.

News over the last 48 hours suggests the Ukrainians are also now losing critical mass in their fighting capacity. There is a military equation somewhere, stretching back to evidence from battles from the 18th century, but I have been unable to find it online this morning. The basic rule is that in the early stages of a battle or war, both sides can appear to be winning, but when weapons systems become used up or lost it is down to the hard numbers of fighting men. Those with the highest number remaining in the theatre start to prevail, with the degradation of the weaker force ensuing in a non-linear manner. Essentially, the weaker force collapses. This is what could happen with Ukrainian forces in the next 20 days or so, depending on their losses to date. Russian forces regrouping around the east and south, digging in and repelling attacks on those positions is consistent with this outcome because it is harder to take defensive good defensive positions and this will be the Russian MO now. The strategic aims of the two armies are effectively turned 180 degrees at that point, with the UA adopting an assault position.

Thank you @TargusEasting

The thought of the Ukrainian forces collapsing is unbearable.

“@Ijsbear

I am equally interested to know what it is that makes some soldiers not commit terrible crimes when they are going on all around

Suspect it's a mix of love while growing up, not being brutalized in training and sheer inborn personality. Not new news, but I don't think the absolute crucial necessity of a reasonable start in life can ever be underestimated. A young person who is shown empathy grows up to have empathy for others and that will come out in the strangest and most challenging of times.“

I once read a book by Sue Gerhardt, “Why Love Matters” which is about how the brains of children are physiologically affected by early empathy and love or lack of it.

And Alice Miller finds the roots of the proclivities of murderers and horrific dictators ( or suicides and self harm through drugs) in their experiences of childhood abuse without a healing ‘witness’.

A M I think touched on how in earlier societies, when harsh child rearing was the norm, it suited those society to have more aggressive, hardened people growing up.

I haven’t seen a systematic study of soldiers who have admitted war crimes ( there were some from Vietnam who admitted them).

Quickly looking things up just now it seems that in Russia domestic and child abuse is fairly normal.

en.hromadske.ua/posts/exclusive-investigation-domestic-violence-against-children-in-russia

www.themoscowtimes.com/2012/12/25/child-abuse-in-russia-is-routine-a20452

@TargusEasting

It’s almost impossible to assess at this stage. I am sceptical of the Ukraine claims in Russian equipment losses. We would likely have seen more evidence of plane and helicopter losses in particular. The Russian soldier loss figure is more believable, but you could probable shave a third off, so 12,000 which in itself is material

Agreed, - I'd second all of your post....Certainly the true state of the air war is pretty much impossible for us to assess.

With the latest images coming out of Russia is there any hope of China changing its position? Or less likely cos of whataboutery? How is this going to end? Feels like there's no hope.

@Ijsbear
I could be wrong of course. It is only my opinion. Let's hope I am.

Also, it was wrong of me to say 'fighting men'. The UA has woman soldiers fighting on the front line. I am not aware of women in the Russian army fighting in Ukraine. In fact I believe they are not permitted in front line roles because Putin has a restrictive view on the role of women in the army.

@minsmum

I was talking to a friend last night who has signed up to host Ukrainians, she is already doing research on help for trauma that adults and children, that might be available in the area and checking for groups that have been set up for social contact. She is very aware of what she can offer and what is likely to still be needed, extremely practical about it. She used to be a children's social worker working with abused children so she is hoping to be of use

She sounds ideal - being used to dealing with traumatised kids. I wonder if people like your friend will be asked to informally support and train other volunteers. Being well meaning and kind is a great start but people need 'tools' and strategies to deal with trauma. A traumatised kid can and will push you to the absolute limit to check that you are safe and can be trusted.

I'm afraid I was one of those people who were not up in arms about us not opening up to Ukrainians straight away. Logistically, because of where we are geographically, we were never going to be the first port of call and anything we do needs to have longer term considerations. I work in an area directly with people who have been traumatised and whilst immediate needs such as 'roof over head' (good old Maslow, I'm looking at you) the task is so much bigger than that. I'm also very alert to the potential safeguarding issues.

I've been in touch with our District Council to offer my skills but also asked that we reach out to other practitioners so we can get together and create a working group. I can't host but I will happily give my time to support refugees in this way, once I've worked out the best approach re: language etc. This isn't a small task and it's not a time limited one either. I also live in an affluent area, it's barely affordable for myself on a professional wage. They can't even get people into 'affordable' housing here because of the prices. How is that going to work for refugees? I'm afraid I agree with RTB, the 'problem' will get displaced onto poorer communities unless we start to work through the very challenging logistics and think about the longer term.

@TargusEasting

We know that to whatever extent other countries are channeling some new military equipment to Ukrainian forces. Is this likely not as fast as it’s being destroyed by Russian attacks? That is, is it the loss of equipment, which can be replaced, or the tragic loss in men, which is final, that leaves Ukraine as the weaker force?

Do we assume that Russia is also being reequipped from countries whose govt have signalled support for Putin perhaps such as India or Pakistan? And will Russia be able to recruit new conscripts faster to replace loss in men (boys)?

We desperately want Ukraine to survive. My worry is that over time and despite reports of Russia’s losses, Russia can/will prevail. Not only for those senselessly losing lives in Ukraine, but also might a Putin flush from a military victory and angry against Western/nato countries be as dangerous as a Putin losing in Ukraine.

There feels to be no optimal outcome. Russia pulling back to keep territorial gains in Eastern Ukraine and most of Ukraine’s port cities, which must have a significant economic impact, will only (as a PP said) enable Russia to consolidate and rebuild military capacity to stage another attack on eastern Ukraine in the future.

Putin is on the back foot right now.

He has not gone chemical yet as far as we know and not Nuclear.

Surely this is the time to get an independent force into Chernobyl at least as was mooted by nuclear security week's ago.

Then get other boot's in to support the rebuild and protect the rebuild?
From independent countries?

At what point can other nations go in to help these people? When the last russian soldier has left? Are we then allowed to go and help?