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Original poster

Ukraine Invasion Part 18

999 replies

Ijsbear · 02/04/2022 14:10

Place for information, discussion, points of view, useful links and above all, a hope that this sovereign land can regain its freedom.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
15
EsmaCannonball · 04/04/2022 21:35

Ukraine's Prosecutor General says the number of deaths in Borodyanka is the worst of any liberated area yet.

ScrollingLeaves · 04/04/2022 21:35

@EsmaCannonball

“Mariupol now has its very own puppet/collaborator mayor, Kostyantyn Ivashchenko from a local pro-Russian party. Given the atrocities we have seen, I wonder what will happen to those Ukrainians who have welcomed all this?“

How do we know Ukrainians welcomed it?

Aren’t they half dead from starvation and dehydration anyway? What are they to do?

Original poster
Ijsbear · 04/04/2022 21:35

But the information flow needs to get a bit more honest now

There have been pieces here and there; blown up Ukrainian small convoys, the figure of 10,000 Ukrainian military casualties a few days ago. That rather telling little snippet that the overall numbers of Russian military dead are higher, but the percentage losses of the Ukrainians are a little bit higher.

OP posts:
Wannago · 04/04/2022 21:40

@Ijsbear

Can we please please not bicker. This isn't the thread for it. Take it PMs - please?

@Wannago I think many people believed the 1st Iraq war was justified, but the 2nd really wasn't. Seems the ripples of that are reaching very far.

Agree with you many people do believe this. Among other reasons, the first Iraq war there was a UN resolution, the second one there wasn't.

But if you say that UN resolutions are necessary for intervention to be justified, then obviously you can't intervene in Syria or Ukraine, as Russia would never have allowed one.

And every time there is a suggestion that the US or Britain or NATO should intervene, up comes Iraq (particularly no 2) with everybody saying they shouldn't have then, and that actively works to prevent intervention now. If you think that is a good thing, it is a good thing. If you think that actually Britain, NATO and/or the US should have intervened or being intervening in Syria or Ukraine, then you have to explain why this is different to Iraq (or agree that actually it was reasonable to go into Iraq). And you can't say anything about the intelligence gathered. As the intelligence people were saying things about Iraq that turned out to be wrong, so it might have been that the intelligence was wrong on Syria and/or Ukraine too. And indeed intelligence was indeed wrong regarding Ukraine - we know that the Russian forces, while pretty formidable, were not nearly as formidable as we had thought. Western intelligence over estimated the Russian weaponry/ability to fight just as they overestimated the Iraqi weaponry.

DuncinToffee · 04/04/2022 21:43

@Ijsbear

^OSINTtechnical *@Osinttechnical* · 33m First major surrender of Ukrainian forces in Mariupol, reportedly 267 marines.^
There are lot of SM posts saying this has been posted by a Russian propaganda channel on Telegram
TiddyTidTwo · 04/04/2022 21:48

I'm trying to clarify with my pathetic means that Mariupol still has their mayor.

Suspecting Russian shit-posters...

EsmaCannonball · 04/04/2022 21:48

Well, the collaborationist pro-Russian puppet mayor is a Ukrainian who welcomed the invasion and he doesn't seem to be dying of starvation or thirst. IMO, collaborators are worse than the Russians.

EsmaCannonball · 04/04/2022 21:52

To clarify, as with Melitopol, the newly-declared mayor of Mariupol is a Russian puppet. The Ukrainians didn't vote for him. He has no democratic legitimacy. My above post was concerning Ukrainians like him who have welcomed the invasion and how they will be dealt with.

CailleachGranda · 04/04/2022 21:57

@Ijsbear

I wonder what China's reaction is to the news from Bucha and Borodyanka.

The analysts have been saying for a couple of weeks that Mariupol will fall within days. They've fought like supermen to keep going this long.

God be with Ukraine. God be with Ukraine.

I knew it was coming but that's just finished me off
TiddyTidTwo · 04/04/2022 21:57

Looks like there's 2 mayors in Mariupol

The real one and the puppet one that was pictured in my local film theatre, except my local film theatre is bigger and has nicer curtains

Original poster
Ijsbear · 04/04/2022 21:57

^ DuncinToffee Mon 04-Apr-22 21:43:20

Ijsbear

^OSINTtechnical
<strong>@Osinttechnical</strong>
· 33m
First major surrender of Ukrainian forces in Mariupol, reportedly 267 marines.^

There are lot of SM posts saying this has been posted by a Russian propaganda channel on Telegram^

The Russian media machine would be all over it. But it could still be true. There was footage of soldiers (though it would be good news indeed if it was fake).

OP posts:
BreadInCaptivity · 04/04/2022 21:59

twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1511054137491955713?s=21&t=3ioCSMVYCd9xympdeGhoYg

🧵Latest battlefield assessment from "Karl," the Estonian analyst @holger_r and I routinely consult.

  1. "The first half of the week will be waiting until both sides reach the eastern front. It should take Russia more time. Ukraine has already started relocating its units."
PaperTyger · 04/04/2022 22:00

Probably sadly is true but people questioning one smiling and strange silver arm band's.
They had put out zelensky surrender so who knows

TiddyTidTwo · 04/04/2022 22:01

Every little helps

Ukraine Invasion Part 18
Original poster
Ijsbear · 04/04/2022 22:05

If it was bullshit propaganda they could be Russian soldiers dressed up as Ukrainians I suppose. Only one of them seemed wounded which seems an oddly low number.

But the Ukranian soldiers must be desperate, short on food and perhaps water and rest and perhaps out of ammunition, with no chance of relief at all. Any freeing of Mariupol, if it's possible in the future, will be a long way ahead.

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PaperTyger · 04/04/2022 22:08

Bread, interesting thread.
The race to the East.

Other tweeter's saying the tank is pretty much outdated now.

Now Russia Been driven back from Kiev area what'to stop Poland and the other countries from going into to bolster that area of the country?
Protect the people who fled there giving them a safe haven in their country?
Then Ukraine can safely free up their army to go to the East and do the actual fighting?

Shuuu · 04/04/2022 22:09

I don’t think Mariupol has surrendered. I’ve just been watching a live TikTok and it was said they are on day 35 of holding out

DuncinToffee · 04/04/2022 22:10

Many are saying they are wearing the wrong uniforms, no Ukraine flags on armband, not looking like Ukrainian Marines.

Let's be careful and wait for official confirmation.

PaperTyger · 04/04/2022 22:13

Oh dear, commentary saying inspite of the initial shakey support for Putin his elite has now rallied around him.

Original poster
Ijsbear · 04/04/2022 22:17

@Shuuu

I don’t think Mariupol has surrendered. I’ve just been watching a live TikTok and it was said they are on day 35 of holding out
It's not completely surrendered but the ISW says that there are only isolated pockets holding out. Most of it has been taken.

It is impossible for it to keep holding on without a miracle. It's a matter of retaking the rubble in the future.

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PerkingFaintly · 04/04/2022 22:20

I completely agree, wannago.

The US and UK spent a huge amount of political capital invading Iraq for the 2nd Iraq war, and thus had none left when it was really needed in Syria. We more than spent everything we'd acquired for the successful effort in Sierra Leone.

Because the US and the UK had behaved suspiciously as though we were on an imperial adventure in Iraq, we simply wouldn't have been able to convincingly refute accusations we were doing the same in Syria. Certainly not in the eyes of anyone in the region, and Russia wouldn't have been slow to amplify that message.

This made it impossible for us to intervene there in any meaningful way. Our involvement would simply have worsened the mix of interests there, and become another recruiting point for Da'esh in the ME and in the UK.

Yet another reason we shouldn't have invaded Iraq.

TiddyTidTwo Flowers I can't even find anything coherent to say, except to fall back on the trite but heartfelt "Thank you for your service."

DFOD · 04/04/2022 22:24

@TiddyTidTwo

Every little helps
Took their time.

Won’t be using them again.

TiddyTidTwo · 04/04/2022 22:25

"It is impossible for it to keep holding on without a miracle. It's a matter of retaking the rubble in the future"

It's unbelievable their strength. Absolutely incredible really. Even if it rubble, it's Ukrainian rubble and it can be rebuilt.

Original poster
Ijsbear · 04/04/2022 22:29

Agreed! They have been and are superhuman.

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TiddyTidTwo · 04/04/2022 22:35

Honestly, I am so proud of the Ukrainians and their army. David v Goliath.

David wins