Ukraine Invasion: Part 17

[MagicFox]

A new place for us to convene, thread 17.

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@NewYearEveryYear

If he survives this war, Roman Abramovich will be the next leader of Russia... I bet £100 my own money on it.

This could be why he was poisoned. I read a news story saying the same thing a while back

@NewYearEveryYear

If he survives this war, Roman Abramovich will be the next leader of Russia... I bet £100 my own money on it.

Not sure.

He's Jewish, that's not going to win him votes. Also, too close to Putin.

The whole poisoning thing is bizarre. Surely Putin was happy for Abramovich to have the talks in Kyiv, what would he gain from poisoning him?
"I hate everyone already. They say there are civilians there and our boys can't shoot at them.But they fired at my son from Kiev.Why can they shoot, and our boys can't? So I tell now - do bomb civilians, may be then more of our boys will return alive" - Gulnara told BBC. This is widely believed in Russia.

Agreed @Shuuu - just a gentle poisoning, a little warning shot to say "we could have got you, we chose to let you live"... to remind him to toe the line.

Thanks for the link RTB. Just wow.

Seems a bit premature to think of Russia's next leader to me. Putin's still firmly ensconced, will fight to the last drop of his own blood (to be spilled only after everyone else has spilled theirs) and Ukraine is still heavily under attack.

Maybe Putin doesn't trust him why should he trust any of them?
Maybe it was a mild threat...I can reach you, mildly but don't test me further...

@PaperTyger

Maybe Putin doesn't trust him why should he trust any of them? Maybe it was a mild threat...I can reach you, mildly but don't test me further...

It doesn't add up to me.

At the end of Channel 4 tonight they seemed to suddenly say RA’sc illness was caused by something environmental rather than poison.

Fucking bizarre story.

Tim Franks @BBCTimFranks
BREAKING: a senior Ukrainian plays down reports of Ukrainian officials being caught in the alleged Abramovich poisoning.

...Ihor Zhovkva - Deputy Head of President's Office - speaking to Newshour, @bbcworldservice
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He said he hadn't spoken to Abramovich or his people, but "the members of the Ukrainian delegation are fine; I was in contact with one of them, and they said the story was false."

Max Seddon
twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1508518460405526530?t=GUmWZ5MIqCo08PHidn_r2A&s=19

New details on Ukraine's ceasefire talks with Russia:

– Ukraine has to give up on Nato but will be free to join the EU
– Russia is no longer demanding "denazification"
– "demilitarization" and Russian language are not part of the possible deal either

Given Putin was vowing to dismember Ukraine a month ago, this sounds like a huge climbdown. And Ukraine is worried it’s too good to be true

In exchange for giving up its goal to join NATO, Ukraine gets to pursue the EU – and guarantees that sound a lot like NATO’s Article 5 by another name

@DuncinToffee

Max Seddon twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1508518460405526530?t=GUmWZ5MIqCo08PHidn_r2A&s=19

New details on Ukraine's ceasefire talks with Russia:

– Ukraine has to give up on Nato but will be free to join the EU
– Russia is no longer demanding "denazification"
– "demilitarization" and Russian language are not part of the possible deal either

Given Putin was vowing to dismember Ukraine a month ago, this sounds like a huge climbdown. And Ukraine is worried it’s too good to be true

In exchange for giving up its goal to join NATO, Ukraine gets to pursue the EU – and guarantees that sound a lot like NATO’s Article 5 by another name

Let's see what they do rather than what they say

Victor Kovalenko @MrKovalenko
According to Intel. Dept. of #Ukraine MoD, beginning from April 1, #Russia opens a draft of ~100K reservists with combat experience to send them to war in #Ukraine. This draft will be simultaneous with the spring conscription of the 18-year-old Russian men.

@RedToothBrush

Fucking bizarre story.

Tim Franks @BBCTimFranks
BREAKING: a senior Ukrainian plays down reports of Ukrainian officials being caught in the alleged Abramovich poisoning.

...Ihor Zhovkva - Deputy Head of President's Office - speaking to Newshour, @bbcworldservice
.
He said he hadn't spoken to Abramovich or his people, but "the members of the Ukrainian delegation are fine; I was in contact with one of them, and they said the story was false."

Just catching up. This is so fucking fishy. I can't see any reason for Russia to poison him, but I also can't see any reason for him to make it up?!?!

It's bizarre. One possible explanation could be that he's positioning himself publically as being anti-Putin, for if there is the idea of a long term change of leadership (god knows if he actually is anti-Putin or not).

Or a small coincidental incident being blown up into something much bigger.

"Curiouser and curiouser!" said Alice:

Richard Chambers @newschambers
Roman Abramovich’s spokesperson confirms he suffered suspected poisoning
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60904676
Roman Abramovich suffered suspected poisoning at talks
Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich suffered symptoms of suspected poisoning at talks in Kyiv earlier this month, sources close to him say.

And JUST:

Kevin Rothrock @KevinRothrock
So, this is a heck of a “correction” from @bbcrussian: now Roman Abramovich’s spokesperson says he has not commented on reports that he was poisoned. Hmm.
t.me/bbcrussian/25754

Bellingcat @bellingcat
Bellingcat can confirm that three members of the delegation attending the peace talks between Ukraine and Russia on the night of 3 to 4 March 2022 experienced symptoms consistent with poisoning with chemical weapons. One of victims was Russian entrepreneur Roman Abramovich.

Eliot Higgins @EliotHiggins 15mins ago
I just want to note this is based on first hand reporting, not people telling us this. I suspect some of the people responding to these reports are unaware of that.

And Bellingcat have just doubled down and are standing by their claims.

Finally caught up

Plot twist...

Skin peeling poisoning was intended for John Torode, sadly for Roman Abramovich who has seemingly been morphing into him.

@ScrollingLeaves

At the end of Channel 4 tonight they seemed to suddenly say RA’sc illness was caused by something environmental rather than poison.

Wasn't Napoleon poisoned by arsenic in wallpaper? Maybe with RA's illness the poison was also environmental.

Jack Detsch @JackDetsch
Jack Detsch @JackDetsch
NEW: U.S. is still in talks with allies and partners about providing Ukraine with long-range air defenses, such as the Russian-made S-300 system: senior U.S. defense official.

NEW: Ukraine still has the majority of long-range air defenses available and airspace remains "contested" more than a month after Russian invasion: senior U.S. defense official

Russian surface to air missiles cover most of Ukraine, but Russian pilots are mostly fearful of going into its air

NEW: Russian long-range artillery and air attacks are having a "devastating" impact on Ukraine's besieged city of Mariupol: senior US defense official

Mariupol has been under siege for a month, since day 4 of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Local officials say 5,000 have died.

Dan Lamothe @DanLamothe
Pentagon also was asked for an assessment of how many people, including civilians, have been killed in Mariupol. Belief is that it is likely thousands.

Senior defense official declines to disclose a number, saying the Pentagon has low confidence in their estimates.

@NewYearEveryYear

Plot twist...

Skin peeling poisoning was intended for John Torode, sadly for Roman Abramovich who has seemingly been morphing into him.

I've got to say, I've time I see a photo of Roman Abramovich I just think 'what a potato head'.

I have no idea why. He just makes me think of potato heads. This isn't a thing I normally do where I see someone and think something about their appearance.

He is just a 'potato head' and now I've got it stuck in my head and I can't unthink it. So now I am going to curse you all with the thought of it too, cos its really starting to annoy me and I want to share the pain.

Mike Shelby @grayzonewarlord
There you have it: Ukrainian agriculture ministry says farmers are only planting 50% of spring acreage.

The good news: ag officials say they can export 44MM tons of grain this year, largely due to existing robust grain stores. That's about what they exported last year, iirc.

Nathan Carson @ndcarson
Translation: the world’s supply of tradable wheat and corn in 2023 will be between 4.5% and 7% smaller. Best case scenario is production normalizes next year which means prices won’t begin dropping until 2024.

Buckle up, cause food prices are about to go on a wild ride.

And doubling down AGAIN

Christo Grozev @christogrozev
In relation to Ukrainian and US officials playing down this incident: there are dozens plausible, and some even legitimate, reasons for government official to lie about this. There is zero reason for us (or @WSJ, or @BBC, or @guardian) to.

I've got to say, I've time I see a photo of Roman Abramovich I just think 'what a potato head'.

I have no idea why. He just makes me think of potato heads. This isn't a thing I normally do where I see someone and think something about their appearance.

He is just a 'potato head' and now I've got it stuck in my head and I can't unthink it. So now I am going to curse you all with the thought of it too, cos its really starting to annoy me and I want to share the pain.

Well, your evil plan won’t work on me! In our house, Mr Potato Head always refers to Wayne Rooney, who imho looks far more like a potato than Abramovich