Ukraine Invasion: Part 17

[MagicFox]

A new place for us to convene, thread 17.

@RedToothBrush

Victor Kovalenko *@MrKovalenko* According to Intel. Dept. of #Ukraine MoD, beginning from April 1, #Russia opens a draft of ~100K reservists with combat experience to send them to war in #Ukraine. This draft will be simultaneous with the spring conscription of the 18-year-old Russian men.

Any idea if this number would be thought necessary in line with their (revised) stated aims? 🤔

Regarding Napoleon, I think his cause of death remains a mystery, but lots of 19th century people were poisoned by green pigment in wallpaper that contained arsenic. I think this was a slow, cumulative process though, not something that could happen in a meeting of a few hours. There is a nice book on death by wallpaper, called Bitten by Witch Fever, if anyone is interested.

Jack Detsch @JackDetsch
NEW: Russia’s Wagner Group has deployed to eastern Ukraine and is expected to send over 1,000 mercenaries for combat operations: British Defense Intelligence

Russia’s heavy losses in Ukraine have “highly likely” forced Kremlin to deploy Wagner to Ukraine from Africa & Syria

Ugh, the human-head footballers. I hope they're as hollow as many people think.

Shredded I've posted before about Romans Ukraine heritage, his losing his parents at four, grandparents shipped off somewhere.

People are not so ridged in their thinking it's extremely likely that he understood he's made his money in criminal ways that Hurt people whilst also being against this war , hating the sudden loss of his cosy Life , berated by his teenage children who probably saw him more as Chelsea boss not Putin's gangster.

I can see many reasons why he wouldn't support this atrocity ( oh and being Jewish) , and why Putin wouldn't trust him.

That doesnt mean I like or support him.

I've certainly felt however as soon as I learned his heritage that perhaps he would be more of a help than a hindrance.
It's not surprising to me that zelensky personally asked biden not too.sanction him.

Now BBC News at ten are leading with the poisoning.

The Associated Press @AP
With a desperate need for vehicles to help frontline Ukrainian forces repel the Russian invasion, welders and car mechanics at a Lviv workshop are using their skills to convert pick-ups for military use.
twitter.com/AP/status/1508550759729750016

Ukrainians getting low on suitable vehicles too...

I'm sorry but I'm reminded sad person that I am of an NCIS episode (cross over episode of NCIS & NCIS:Los Angeles) where a billionaire business man deliberately poisons himself with a Novichok type substance, while agents are around to call 911 and save him, to divert suspicion the fact that he is really the double agent committing treason and selling his company's (defence) product to Russia

Fanciful I know, but it seems a bit too convenient for RA (regular readers will know that I'm not usually one for conspiracy theories).

Fanciful I know, but it seems a bit too convenient for RA (regular readers will know that I'm not usually one for conspiracy theories).

Why? What did he gain from this?

The motivation for pretending to be poisoned or for self-administering a mild dose of poison would be to save your billions, to enable you and your family to continue living in western countries, and to salvage your reputation so you and your family can still go on to bigger things. I'm not saying this is what happened but it would be an explanation.

I also thought the story about Zelensky asking Biden not to sanction Abramovitch was a bit fishy. Is the story true at all? Is Abramovitch offering to negotiate on condition that Zelensky helps with his personal sanctions? Is Abramovitch seeing Ukraine as one giant opportunity?

I wonder if anyone else is beginning to feel that Ukraine are not entirely to be trusted. It may be the way of wars and propaganda- I don't know. I just feel their statistics (numbers of Russians dead/Russian weaponry destroyed/generals killed vs numbers of Ukrainian military killed, children killed, civilians killed) and some of their accounts of events are not accurate and there are indications emerging of things happening which, if Russia was doing them, would be reason for outcry. An example would be the video of alleged Russian soldiers being tortured this morning- there was a denial now there is an investigation and a comment about how action will be taken if it is true. I read at the weekend about right-wing Ukrainian para-military groups being tolerated before the war and one integrated into the army.
It is hard to know but I just have a feeling of doubt about Ukraine and suspect it has been a country less 'Westernised' than we think. I wonder how much corruption has existed.
I am not pro-Putin in any way but I am starting to wonder about aspects of Ukraine politically. This war started with outrage about 'poor Ukraine' but I am feeling less convinced about how stable it ever was.
Nothing to do with how awful this has been for the people- those who have fled and those who remain- I also dread to think what has happened to all the animals- pets, farms, horses etc. That is heartbreaking.
Anyone else?

Maria Pevchikh @pevchikh
Now imagine how scared for his life Abramovich really is, if he leaked this story to WSJ and Bellingcat.

The thing that struck me earlier was the story which first appeared in the Times about the hand written note from Zelensky to Putin.

Why The Times, and who would have knowledge of this?

Zelensky, Abramovich, Putin and a handful of people around them.

Why was Bellingcat involved at all? Either a state is playing silly buggers or your have some rich who wanted a none state entity involved.

And why the admission and then reversal from someone close to Abramovich.

It only really makes sense if its from Abramovich's circle. This doesn't mean he's scared he is going to get bumped off and is friendly to Ukraine (indeed there is always the possibility of exactly the opposite).

The only thing I feel that not contested is that Abramovich wanted this story out there for some reason. It may or may not be true, but all roads led back to him being ultimately the source driving it.

That is the only real conclusion i can draw.

We could say that yes Russia want to bump him off and are warning him (and there was a veiled reference to it in Putin's speech of the 16th March) or we could believe that there is shenanigans going on and this is about trying to make the Ukrainians look as if they attempted the murder of a Russian peacemaker via chemical weapons.

Both possible explanations might spook Ukraine or the US.

I ultimately can't rule out either.

The fact that the Times, the Wall Street Journal and the BBC which are amongst the most reputable journalist outfits in the world were involved is interesting. The story needed a credibility behind it.

And it came THE SAME DAY as the BBC did that piece on a poisoning of a political opponent based on a Bellingcat investigation? How convenient in terms of timing. Some might say a coincidence. I don't believe in such things when it comes to stories like this.

This smells.

I might even wonder if British Secret Service were involved in the midst of this.

Which leds me to my another suspicion: Someone wants to protect Abramovich for whatever reason against something or someone.

I wonder if this is the end of the matter...

Kevin Rothrock @KevinRothrock
Citing the rising “unavailability of foreign equipment,” Russia’s federal govt advises domestic telecoms operators to reduce mobile Internet service to keep Russia’s networks from overloading. Sanctions strike again.

Well, no country is whiter than white. You'd need a country of angels for that.

Ukraine had serious corruption problems and it did have the unpleasant Azov battalion. Some of the corruption came from known Russian interference, see the previous Prime Minister for example.

I don't know about less ' Westernized'. Does that make a difference to anything?

There are alleged reports of Ukrainians torturing Russian POWs yes. There's also a massive massive amount of misinformation and cooked-up clips. It could perhaps be true. It could be false. I wouldn't be surprised if it's true but then again, firstly Ukrainians are pulling their dead children from under rubble and that tends to put anyone's temper to the test, and secondly - if you want horror, look at the Wagner group.

I think that Ukrainian losses are high and not being reported in the West, agreed.

The motivation for pretending to be poisoned or for self-administering a mild dose of poison would be to save your billions, to enable you and your family to continue living in western countries, and to salvage your reputation so you and your family can still go on to bigger things. I'm not saying this is what happened but it would be an explanation.

He had this before the negations, if the sources are to be believed. And now his spokesperson is distancing themselves from the story, so it wasn't RA who leaked it.

He's not gaining anything from it.

If he put an undisputed story out that he'd been poisoned, it could create some credence to the story that he's anti-Putin.

That he's withdrawn it - god knows what's going on.

He obviously knows the true story as after the suspected poisoning he continued to take part in negotiations. Did I read somewhere negotiations were postponed today or this week? If so, perhaps the Russian negotiators suffered the same fate. Both thinking it’s each other when perhaps it was environmental

@LuluBlakey1

I wonder if anyone else is beginning to feel that Ukraine are not entirely to be trusted. It may be the way of wars and propaganda- I don't know. I just feel their statistics (numbers of Russians dead/Russian weaponry destroyed/generals killed vs numbers of Ukrainian military killed, children killed, civilians killed) and some of their accounts of events are not accurate and there are indications emerging of things happening which, if Russia was doing them, would be reason for outcry. An example would be the video of alleged Russian soldiers being tortured this morning- there was a denial now there is an investigation and a comment about how action will be taken if it is true. I read at the weekend about right-wing Ukrainian para-military groups being tolerated before the war and one integrated into the army. It is hard to know but I just have a feeling of doubt about Ukraine and suspect it has been a country less 'Westernised' than we think. I wonder how much corruption has existed. I am not pro-Putin in any way but I am starting to wonder about aspects of Ukraine politically. This war started with outrage about 'poor Ukraine' but I am feeling less convinced about how stable it ever was. Nothing to do with how awful this has been for the people- those who have fled and those who remain- I also dread to think what has happened to all the animals- pets, farms, horses etc. That is heartbreaking. Anyone else?

No.

Propaganda is definitely happening. Ukraine will be hiding certain things which makes it harder to feel like you are getting the whole picture.

Its also a war. I would be surprised, given the particularly bloody nature of it and how its on Ukrainian land, if Ukrainian military discipline had been to the letter throughout. I do think war crimes will have been committed by Ukrainians. That doesn't mean I think those films on social media are real though either. Its just that I'm realistic about some men losing the plot and taking things too far because of high emotions or because they think they can get away with it. But I also think that is likely to be fairly isolated and certainly not systematic or sanctioned from above like we are seeing from the Russians.

I think you have to understand the difference and that even if Ukrainians are doing inexcusable things, that it has to be in context and in terms of understanding the scale of the problem.

It will absolutely be used to discredit Ukraine because of Zelensky's almost righteousness on the subject. That doesn't mean thats a fair thing to do.

It may be the case that investigations are ongoing and that individuals will be hauled up and punished. But Ukraine is also unlikely to do this publicly for a variety of reasons too - not least because it precisely gives credibility to the idea that its widely committing war crimes.

Ukraine may never address the issue and may cover it up. Thats not ok. But again is it widespread, sanctioned from above or systematic? Hard to argue it is, if your evidence is a couple of incidents on video compared to the catalogue of crimes committed in Mariupol alone.

I am also surprised that there has been very little embedded journalism. It's as if both sides have kept journalists quite distant and that has made me wonder- not about Russia (it is what I would expect from them) but about Ukraine. Surely it would have been to their advantage to have journalists embedded with the military and politicians in places like Kyiv or Mariupol. It has all been quite separate and distant .

@ChardonnaysPetDragon I honestly don't know yet It just seems suspect but I can't work out who is double-crossing who/pulling the wool over whose eyes.

As an aside and peripherally linked , I can now work out who the murderer is in the new series of NCIS (they'll will appear in the first 20 minutes) but usually can't work out the motive/reason until the last 5-10 minutes

I repeat, Anonymous has released a Russian document ordering the production of propaganda showing Ukrainians abusing Russian pows, the aim of which is to prevent surrendering and desertion. The pow videos have been released and amplified by established pro-Russian propaganda accounts. Many people are questioning the veracity of the videos in relation to language used, uniforms, weaponry, wounds, blood spatter and ballistics. I can't claim to be an expert in those things but I have seen other obviously faked videos showing supposed Ukrainians grateful to have escaped to Russia. They are so fake they are laughable.

The whole Azov thing is over-played and tiresome. Even the BBC has debunked it.

Of course the Ukrainians have propaganda. They'd be crazy not to.

@LuluBlakey1

I am also surprised that there has been very little embedded journalism. It's as if both sides have kept journalists quite distant and that has made me wonder- not about Russia (it is what I would expect from them) but about Ukraine. Surely it would have been to their advantage to have journalists embedded with the military and politicians in places like Kyiv or Mariupol. It has all been quite separate and distant .

Define what you mean

Ive seen numerous front line reports from ITV, Sky and the BBC. Not every day, but part of that is the difficulty of the situation. And getting film out safely without endangering Ukrainians nor the reporters themselves.

This is a particularly deadly war. You aren't going to get as many up close and personals for that reason. Indeed a number of journalists who have had paid for it with their lives already.

We have seen AP photographers who were got out of Mariupol at risk to soliders. The others had all left because of fears for their safety.

We aren't going to see foreign journalists following politicians around - its a security risk. It'd be a massive beacon for 'here I am, come get me'.

Ukrainian journalists have been reporting more - but we get the 'not independantly verified' line to accompany that too. Because of fears that Ukrainian journalists aren't fully independent/reliable.

I think you have dreadfully unrealistic expectation and understanding of war reporting generally tbh. This is not a 'normal' war even by war reporting standards either.

Journalists are always at risk in war zones. In this case we know that Russia are actively targeting them.

On the embedded journalists...I believe an article has been linked a couple of times on these threads about a journalist being evacuated from Mariupol simply because the Ukrainian army realised they could no longer keep them safe. It was quite awful to read. The army wanted them to stay and report on the horror but couldn't protect them any longer. Journalists have been shot. The Russians don't appear to be great respecters of the rules of war as regards non-combatants so....I can't blame individual journalists or news organisations for retreating a little from the front line.

@LuluBlakey1

I wonder if anyone else is beginning to feel that Ukraine are not entirely to be trusted. It may be the way of wars and propaganda- I don't know. I just feel their statistics (numbers of Russians dead/Russian weaponry destroyed/generals killed vs numbers of Ukrainian military killed, children killed, civilians killed) and some of their accounts of events are not accurate and there are indications emerging of things happening which, if Russia was doing them, would be reason for outcry. An example would be the video of alleged Russian soldiers being tortured this morning- there was a denial now there is an investigation and a comment about how action will be taken if it is true. I read at the weekend about right-wing Ukrainian para-military groups being tolerated before the war and one integrated into the army. It is hard to know but I just have a feeling of doubt about Ukraine and suspect it has been a country less 'Westernised' than we think. I wonder how much corruption has existed. I am not pro-Putin in any way but I am starting to wonder about aspects of Ukraine politically. This war started with outrage about 'poor Ukraine' but I am feeling less convinced about how stable it ever was. Nothing to do with how awful this has been for the people- those who have fled and those who remain- I also dread to think what has happened to all the animals- pets, farms, horses etc. That is heartbreaking. Anyone else?

Yes it's all very fishy to me. This is awful for the Ukrainian people and the country but I have come to the conclusion I can't trust any of the governments at all anymore. What a load of madness...dont no what to believe anymore 😔

@LuluBlakey1

I wonder if anyone else is beginning to feel that Ukraine are not entirely to be trusted. It may be the way of wars and propaganda- I don't know. I just feel their statistics (numbers of Russians dead/Russian weaponry destroyed/generals killed vs numbers of Ukrainian military killed, children killed, civilians killed) and some of their accounts of events are not accurate and there are indications emerging of things happening which, if Russia was doing them, would be reason for outcry. An example would be the video of alleged Russian soldiers being tortured this morning- there was a denial now there is an investigation and a comment about how action will be taken if it is true. I read at the weekend about right-wing Ukrainian para-military groups being tolerated before the war and one integrated into the army. It is hard to know but I just have a feeling of doubt about Ukraine and suspect it has been a country less 'Westernised' than we think. I wonder how much corruption has existed. I am not pro-Putin in any way but I am starting to wonder about aspects of Ukraine politically. This war started with outrage about 'poor Ukraine' but I am feeling less convinced about how stable it ever was. Nothing to do with how awful this has been for the people- those who have fled and those who remain- I also dread to think what has happened to all the animals- pets, farms, horses etc. That is heartbreaking. Anyone else?

Nope, not me

If you're referring to those unverified pics - that is absolutely nothing compared to attacking and murdering children just because

And you can't just have heard of Azov. The answer to that (agreed as a response on a previous thread) should just be - Wagner