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Ukraine-invasion-part-16

991 replies

PestorPeston · 22/03/2022 23:46

Warsaw Russian is letting out a lot of smoke - there has been no decision on who among them will be the next pontiff.

Biden is going there Friday

Is Boris Johnson the designated survivor?

Who the heck let me be in charge?

OP posts:
Thread gallery
18
RedToothBrush · 23/03/2022 19:02

www.thedailybeast.com/russian-troops-are-now-turning-on-each-other-its-a-shtshow-one-soldier-is-recorded-telling-another?ref=scroll
‘It’s a Sh*tshow’: Russian Troops Are Now Turning on Each Other
“Even in Chechnya, there was nothing like this,” a soldier tells friend in an intercepted call, as reports emerge of another getting so fed up he ran over his colonel with a tank.

Ukrainian journalist Roman Tsymbaliuk reported Wednesday that two tactical groups of Russian soldiers in Makarov, in the Kyiv region, lost at least half of their men in battles against Ukrainian forces.

One of the Russian soldiers “blamed the commander of the group, Col. Yury Medvedev, for the deaths of his friends,” Tsymbaliuk wrote on Facebook.

“Having waited for the right moment, during battle, he ran over the commander with a tank as he stood next to him, injuring both his legs. Now Col. Medvedev is in a hospital in Belarus, waiting for monetary compensation for combat wounds received during the ‘special military operation to protect the Donbass.’ Colonel Medvedev was awarded the Order of Courage,” he wrote.

The Daily Beast could not independently confirm Tsymbaliuk’s version of events, but Putin lackey and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov confirmed Medvedev was injured during fighting in a VK post this month.

True??

There is precidence:

Jimmy @JimmySecUK
Reminiscent of how US soldiers intentionally tried to kill their superior officers in Vietnam - often done by throwing a fragmentation grenade into their quarters - giving rise to the term "fragging".

It's a clear sign of a collapse of morale and military discipline.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fragging

All the factors associated with fragging in Vietnam are present for the Russian army in Ukraine: war isn't doing as well as expected, racial tensions between officers and privates, low morale, loss of war purpose, poor attitude and contempt for the men from superiors, superiors who want to win medals for heroism at all costs, troops from poor / rough backgrounds, conscript troops will little military discipline...

Keeping in mind there were 900 documented or suspected cases in Vietnam, its highly possible this is going to start happening even if particular story isn't true.

Bloomberg @business
A senior NATO military officer says the alliance estimates that Russia has suffered between 30,000 and 40,000 battlefield casualties in Ukraine through the first month of the war, including between 7,000 and 15,000 killed (via AP)

Rob Lee @RALee85
Keep in mind that the 120 BTGs that were assembled for the invasion had approximately 85,000-95,000 troops + Rosgvardia/separatist forces. The rest of the figure comes from support units. The BTGs have sustained most of these casualties, possibly as much as 1/3rd of their troops.

RedToothBrush · 23/03/2022 19:04

I’m sure Putin’s quaking in his boots at the thought of him or his government being sued for breach of contract ATM….

Quite. Wtf are Germany thinking?

RedToothBrush · 23/03/2022 19:05

Rob Lee @RALee85
I think the heavy losses among Russian battalion, regiment, and brigade commanders might be an even bigger issue than the losses of generals. It is really difficult to replace these losses, which sometimes includes the staff.

Natsku · 23/03/2022 19:06

as reports emerge of another getting so fed up he ran over his colonel with a tank

I really really hope this is true

AthelstaneTheUnready · 23/03/2022 19:09

@RedToothBrush

I’m sure Putin’s quaking in his boots at the thought of him or his government being sued for breach of contract ATM….

Quite. Wtf are Germany thinking?

They may be thinking that once the other side has breached the contract, they are no longer liable for the future payments on their side, as per France's hand-wringing about the bns they're tied into over the next 25 years.
RedToothBrush · 23/03/2022 19:19

In reference to the post that appeared and then disappeared in Russian media (which we do perhaps need to take with a pinch of salt, but some interesting thoughts here none the less.

Trent Telenko @TrentTelenko 18h
People are looking at the raw numbers here, 🧵look at the casualty ratio instead:
9861 Russian KIA
16,153 Russian WIA
The Russians have 37% KIA & 63% WIA, a 2 to 3 ratio.

This represents an utter collapse the Russian medical evacuation & treatment system. Note, no "missing" or POW categories.

That lack of "Missing" & "POW" categories, which are standard in professional military casualty reporting, is a "poker tell" regards there being more Russian military casualties & losses.

There are a lot of small Russian columns wiped out by Ukrainian forces. There is no "Platinum 5-minutes," no "Golden hour" in the Russian Army. Russian leaders simply do not care for the lives of the conscripts in their charge.

Compare that to 2 dead to 3 wounded ratio of the Russian Army to the between 1-to-7 and 1-to-10 ratio that the US Military has decreased from 2001 to 2022.

The US Military cares for its soldiers, sailors, Airmen, & Marines. And they all know it. And it isn't just the medical care. It is also things like Military Chaplin's.

In WW2, there were a lot of soldiers who took extensive wounds, got the golden hour treatment, then later "Died of wounds."

This is where the Chaplins made a life and death difference. You see, they not only ministered to the last rites. They buttressed the souls of those in their care by telling them everything had been done to save them but that they had to fight to save their own lives. And, more often than not, those wounded American soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines did just that.

It's why the US military keeps them despite repeated attempts by the "Secular Fundamentalists'" of the American Left's complete this final "Secular cleansing" of U.S. institutions.

Chaplin's wartime role in saving lives is one of those things they "pretend not to know," but the JAG corps argues to the Courts

The 2 dead to 3 wounded ratio of the Russian Army in Ukraine is not much different from the Red Army in WW2. Nor is it much different from the casualties the Union Army took in the US Civil War.

The Soviet Army eliminated chaplins and replaced them with the much less effective Political Commissar. I don't know if the Russian Army has any ROC chaplins. I've seen no evidence of it in Russian propaganda.

Which is telling.

Napoleon said: "In war, the moral is to the physical as ten is to one."

It is for that moral purpose the US Military cares enough to beat "Secular Fundamentalists'" to retain chaplins for its men's (& increasingly women's) bodies & souls.

Russia's Army does not bother.

Chinook Helomech @47Helomech
In the minds of the Elite ruling class Russian soldiers do not go missing, get captured, or surrender. They all fight to the death for Putin's insane genocide because teh Kremlin propaganda says so. Reality be damned.

TargusEasting · 23/03/2022 19:20

@MagicFox

It doesn't make any logistical sense but I'm struggling to believe they don't have a strategy
I remember seeing a Putin interview on You Tube. I think it is this one -

When asked what he likes about the US, Putin says...creativity, tackling problems, openness and open-mindedness, unlocking inner potential of its people and individuals.

It is as if we are listening to a completely different Putin than the one we see today. It is as if there is no one other than Putin and perhaps two other individuals who are making all the decisions. No organisation can survive like that. Putin was obviously a very clever guy once. Not now. What a waste. If only he had replicated what he admired and gave the Russian people a blank sheet of canvas, what a country that could be today.

DGRossetti · 23/03/2022 19:37

It is as if we are listening to a completely different Putin than the one we see today. It is as if there is no one other than Putin and perhaps two other individuals who are making all the decisions

I mentioned "Whoops Apocalypse !" a few threads back. People really should have checked it out. Especially the bit about the Russian leader being replaced every week. (Some of us remember Brezhnev, Andropov and Chernenko in the space of a fortnight ....)

RedToothBrush · 23/03/2022 19:43

Bill Hanage @BillHanage
Before and after photos of the TB hospital in Chernihiv, Ukraine, shared by a colleague of @jenkinshelen recently evacuated from Kyiv. The war will impact the treatment of many infectious diseases, but TB is especially important

Ukraine and other parts of the former Soviet Union have very high rates of multi drug resistant TB. Failure to treat this adequately will lead to more infections, and if you don't want covid you really don't want MDRTB

While there were no casualties among patients or staff, the medical stockpiles were destroyed. This will set back the treatment of those already infected and mean more risk to public health in general.

Tomorrow it will be world TB day, and @jenkinshelen with @SilviaChiangMD will be speaking in a congressional briefing about how the war will lead to more infections
twitter.com/jenkinshelen/status/1506303606852567049?s=20&t=Q3x3RuSpUbjl-3yGxqGjOA

And of course it is not only TB. We can expect the displacement to disseminate polio as well. A disease on the brink of eradication for so long, resurgent as a result of conflict (not for the first time either) polioeradication.org/news-post/global-polio-eradication-initiative-deeply-concerned-for-health-of-ukrainian-people-amid-escalating-crisis/

While I usually resist commenting on Ukraine because I lack relevant expertise, these things are infectious disease. War and pestilence go hand in hand

RedToothBrush · 23/03/2022 19:50

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/23/chernihiv-running-out-of-water-as-russia-accused-of-taking-city-hostage?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1648046774
Chernihiv rations drinking water as Russia accused of taking city hostage

Water running out in besieged northern city, where about 150,000 people are also without heat and power

Anastasiia Lapatina @lapatina_
Another journalist killed covering Russia’s war in #Ukraine. The Insider’s Oksana Baulina, a Russian reporter, was killed by her country’s own forces when they hit a target in Kyiv for the second time after reporters got to the scene. Russia’s well-known Syrian tactics

Josie Ensor @Josiensor
Sounds like a "double tap" attack, one of most cynical of Russian military tactics. Moscow often used this against White Helmets in Syria - bombing the same place again after rescuers and civilians gathered at the scene, maximising casualties. So tragic, thoughts with her family

Aldin @aldin_ww
Regarding the damn snow, only areas in Ukraine under some snow now are Kharkiv, Sumy and some in Izyum areas.

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/23/israel-ukraine-pegasus-spyware-russia?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Israel blocked Ukraine from buying Pegasus spyware, fearing Russia’s anger

Revelation of denial offers new insight into the way Israel’s relationship with Moscow has undermined Ukrainian objectives

DuncinToffee · 23/03/2022 20:17

Jack Detsch @JackDetsch
NEW: U.S. is prioritizing deliveries of Stinger anti-air missiles, Javelin anti-tank missiles, and body armor to Ukraine: senior U.S. defense official

Russia has not threatened U.S. ground routes to deliver military aid to Ukraine a month into the conflict, the official said.

MrsPsmalls · 23/03/2022 20:18

[quote Alexandra2001]@MrsPsmalls The point here is that cutting our military by 10,000 and specifically the infantry by 4000 (to less than 19000) is somewhat premature.

We just don't yet know how the world will look in 12 months time, its lot easier to get rid than recruit from scratch, we already delayed the Challenger 3 tank until 2030... as Boris thought we'd never have trad warfare again (the clip with him arguing this last year is quite funny)

Johnson said: “We have to recognise that the old concepts of fighting big tank battles on European land mass are over and there are other better things we should be investing in

this is from November 2021, by then Putin already had 10s of 1000s of troops nr Ukraine and plenty of tanks!

Yes some uk troops are going to Eastern Europe but if its a surprise than they haven't been paying attention![/quote]
Its certainly not a surprise but the British tax payer does not want to pay for a larger army. Much as I dislike the PM, this wouldn't have been any better under any other party.

DuncinToffee · 23/03/2022 20:23

Is Mexico supporting Russia or neutral?

"We very much respect the position shown several times by President AMLO…that Mexico is never going to join anti-Russian sanctions & that despite requests by the Govt of Ukraine is never going to supply weapons to Ukraine"

— Russia's Ambassador to MX
Via @Reforma
twitter.com/diazbriseno/status/1506726610241998848?t=IKfl6Kp2Ebr1LqmEPuZH3g&s=19

PaperTyger · 23/03/2022 20:24

TargusEasting

Not that Andrew Marr is the avowed judge if intellect but he said he was one of the most intellegent people he has ever interviewed

I think he is a bruised ago - he made advances to join NATO himself didnt he - I think he knows he would never be fully accepted by the west and thinks " fuck them"....lashing out.

Alexandra2001 · 23/03/2022 20:25

@MrsPsmalls

Its certainly not a surprise but the British tax payer does not want to pay for a larger army. Much as I dislike the PM, this wouldn't have been any better under any other party

Today in Parliament, Labour promised to support the Tories in getting through emergency extra defence spending, they have been calling for the troop reductions to be stopped for months now.

Even Corbyn wanted more conventional forces.

I think you'll find most tax payers want better defence now.

Its lazy to say "no one else would do better" we are facing a new Cold War that could last for decades, we need to be thinking long term, not until the next GE, with a tax cut.

PaperTyger · 23/03/2022 20:26

Revelation of denial offers new insight into the way Israel’s relationship with Moscow has undermined Ukrainian objectives

^^ I am aghast at Israels position but it makes sense now that RA flew there - probably lobbying for Putin.

TiddyTidTwo · 23/03/2022 20:27

"I'd be up for letting Putin retire and letting him get off, galling as it is, since it's not possible to arrest him and if he was out of office hopefully someone with a more constructive attitude would be in charge. The only fly in the ointment is that he'd carry on plotting and he could still do a lot of damage"

I wouldn't. He needs to die.

Hopefully one of his own will do it.

Ijsbear · 23/03/2022 20:30

The Soviet Army eliminated chaplins and replaced them with the much less effective Political Commissar

Chaplains are people you can (at best) have faith in because you can trust they want the best for you even if you have no religion.

Political Commissars sound like people that you have to be sure to say the right thing to, even when you're wounded. Someone to deeply mistrust.

Trust and belief make all the difference in how hard people fight whether it's war, illness or for your family or ideals.

PaperTyger · 23/03/2022 20:31

"I'd be up for letting Putin retire and letting him get off, galling as it is, since it's not possible to arrest him and if he was out of office hopefully someone with a more constructive attitude would be in charge. The only fly in the ointment is that he'd carry on plotting and he could still do a lot of damage"

^^ The man is a crazed mass mass murderer and torturer no!

He needs to face justice one way or another.

hopefully someone with a more constructive attitude would be in charge

The Russian people are ready for democracy actually.

www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/russia-after-putin-report/

Post-Putin Russia would benefit from a Truth Commission, which would establish for what crimes the Putin regime was actually responsible. All employees of law enforcement agencies who have carried out torture, which unfortunately has become common practice in contemporary Russia, should be prosecuted and sentenced in open courts. In particular, the torturers, those who gave them orders, and those who concealed their crimes should all be prosecuted and sentenced.

The best means to fight corruption are transparency and democracy, which embody good governance.

bluetongue · 23/03/2022 20:35

My initial shock at the invasion and worry about nuclear conflict has been replaced with anger at the war crimes being committed and despair and sadness at the unfolding humanitarian disaster. So much suffering and death and for what?

RedToothBrush · 23/03/2022 20:36

Carla Babb @CarlaBabbVOA
#BREAKING #Ukrainians have pushed the #Russians back to about 55 kilometers east & northeast of #Kyiv according to sr. def official. "yesterday we were telling you they were about 20 to 30 km away" #UkraineUnderAttaсk

Interesting.... thats quite a big push back in a day.

Also especially in this context:

Illia Ponomarenko @IAPonomarenko (4hrs ago)
Combat zones near Kyiv are all closed for journalists tomorrow due to security reasons

We knew there was a pocket of Russian to the WEST of Kyiv around Irpin, Hostelmel and Bucha and a Ukrainian offensive.

However its not even that clear cut.

Illia Ponomarenko @IAPonomarenko
I don’t think that we should expect to see Russian forces in Hostomel-Irpin-Bucha effectively locked in a death trap in the nearest time.
Ukrainian military will most likely continue breaking their supply lines and exhausting them in mobile defense along roads.

^I don’t think this large enemy group is exhausted enough for that. And I don’t think Ukrainian forces have enough control north and south of Bucha, including the Zhytomyr highway — at least, not yet.
We’ll see what happens next.^

^IMHO it’s too early for Ukrainian forces to completely switch from mobile defense and mount a big time attack in this area — the command still wants to save and as much power as possible.
Russian air power in the region is not 100% suppressed yet.^

To give an idea of how patchy things to the NW of Kyiv seem to be:

Oleksiy Sorokin @mrsorokaa
Armed Forces report fighting near Teterivske, 60 km northwest of Bucha. That’s pretty far up.

Illia Ponomarenko @IAPonomarenko
Just another illustration of the fact that we don’t have a very clear front line in Kyiv region, west or east of the city.

The whole theater is very patchy, and all those vast territories painted red on maps are barely controlled by the enemy in reality.

RedToothBrush · 23/03/2022 20:37

edition.cnn.com/2022/03/23/politics/us-russia-general-meeting/index.html
Exclusive: Inside a rare US meeting with a Russian general in Moscow

A rare face-to-face meeting between Russian and US military officials last week led to an "outburst" of emotion from a normally stoic Russian general, a "revealing moment" that the Americans present believe hinted at larger morale problems in Russia's military, according to a closely held US military readout of what transpired.

and

The meeting, held at the Russian ministry of defense in Moscow, is a rare instance of Russian and American defense officials sitting down in person since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24. The readout describes the meeting as tense, with visible signs of stress on the Russian side.

It makes particular note of the behavior of Russian Major General Yevgeny Ilyin, deputy chief of the main directorate of international cooperation who has a long track record of dealing with American officials. In a break from typical practice, Ilyin spoke with no notes or set talking points, according to the readout.

As the meeting was breaking up, one US defense attaché "casually inquired" about Ilyin's family roots in Ukraine, and the Russian general's "stoic demeanor suddenly became flushed and agitated," according to the readout. The Americans reported Ilyin responded "yes," and said that he was born in Dnipropetrovsk before moving with his family moving to Donetsk, where he went to school.

But the US officials reported Ilyin then added that the current situation in Ukraine is "tragic and I am very depressed over it" -- and then he walked out without shaking hands, according to the readout.

and

The US team had the sense, according to the readout, that Ilyin stopped just short of accusing US and Ukraine of atrocities against his family. It's not clear what specifically caused them to reach that conclusion, but one of the attachés said, "The fire in his eyes and flustered demeanor left a chill down the spine."

The readout said one of the attaché's jaw dropped, and both Americans reported they had never "witnessed such an outburst by Russian counterparts at an official meeting."

US meetings with Russian officials are typically scripted affairs. While it's not clear from the summary what precisely led to Ilyin's reaction, the two US defense attachés who attended the meeting assessed the general's reaction as a possible sign of morale problems.

"At the very least, it is clear that morale problems among Russian forces are not limited to front-line troops," the readout concludes.

Thereisnolight · 23/03/2022 20:42

.

PestorPeston · 23/03/2022 20:58

For the first time since the 1980s France has put three of its four nuclear submarines at sea at once, it is normal to have at least one at sea.
www.franceinter.fr/monde/la-france-renforce-son-niveau-d-alerte-et-deploie-trois-sous-marins-nucleaires-en-mer

Don't panic, it is safer to have a submarine hidden at sea than a sitting duck at dock.

Europe is checking everything is working, unlike Putin.

OP posts:
PestorPeston · 23/03/2022 20:59

If Ilyin has an escape plan, now might be the time to use it.

OP posts: