Ukraine-invasion-part-16

[PestorPeston]

Warsaw Russian is letting out a lot of smoke - there has been no decision on who among them will be the next pontiff.

Biden is going there Friday

Is Boris Johnson the designated survivor?

Who the heck let me be in charge?

It probably is to be expected that the tone change as this drags on.

I guess I don't feel it's more measured - sort of the opposite, which is what has surprised me as I was expecting it to become more measured as people came to terms with and managed their initial shock and anxiety.

Some of the more moderate posters seem to have been shouted down/over by those who are more hawkish or more inclined to emotional reactions to news stories and have thus reduced their posting and, therefore, the thread seems to have lost some of the spirit of calm information sharing that it did have.

As I say, I'm not trying to thread police, these things do evolve. But from a personal perspective I feel it's a shame. I'm not inclined to take anyone on the Internet's word as gospel, but I did find that there were some posters who I found insightful and measured and it's a shame to see that overall tone dissipating a bit.

@RedToothBrush so am I correct in thinking he can only be arrested/charged etc, if he’s out of power?

What’s left to us to throttle the war machine if they’re finding ways around the sanctions? Is Germany going to be able to pay in ruples or will that cut them off?

The sanctions are still going to bite hard. Sanctions always do ease up after the first pinch. But there's enough of them, and they are hard enough, that life won't be easy.

Plus some components for advanced stuff are only made in the west, im told, so some things are not going to be easily available for a long time.

Over time Russia will look to the East more, India and Pakistan and China. But China's star has been slowly ascending for some time and the rate of that acceleration will increase, I think. They value self sufficiency, their national debt is low compared to other countries and they have extended their influence by building instead of destroying (eg not going to war in Iraq and Afghan).

But the West has an awful lot of power and influence and economic power!

About Germany - Im fascinated to find out.

@toastfiend

The tone of these threads seems to have changed since halfway through the last one.

There are more hawkish posters, but also a lot more premature overreactions and assumptions of the worst and the more moderate posters who appear to have additional knowledge and experience and a more measured tone seem to have dissipated somewhat and be posting more infrequently.

I'm not trying to thread police before I get jumped on - just an observation that there seems to be a marked undercurrent lately that I didn't notice before.

@toastfiend I still feel the same as I did at the start of all this, still scared about the nuclear threat and anxious about where this ends. I still think we should be careful and keep cool heads as NATO and the rest of the West seem to be doing thankfully.

I’ve noticed some change in tone but I think lots of the previous more nervous posters aren’t posting as often.

Anders Aslund @anders_aslund
Many observations suggest that Putin has really only talked to his two toadies Shoigu & Gerasimov before attacking Ukraine.

1. Clearly very few thought he would do something as stupid as attacking the whole of Ukraine, see Naryshkin at the Security Council meeting.

2. The Ukrainians, who have very good intelligence (unlike Putin), claim that the FSB betrayed the Kaduyovtsy and caused big losses among the brutal Chechens.

3. The losses of 6 Russian generals and many more commanding officers suggest that only Ukrainian intelligence worked.

4. Chris Krebs points out in the Washington Post that Russia's cyber forces do not seem to have been included & thus did nothing (FSB, SVR & GRU).

5. Nothing on the Russian side seems to have been coordinated because of overcentralization = Putin.

Curiously, there is no military commander but Putin for Russia's war against Ukraine. Shoigu and Gerasimov have disappeared from public view, & none of the surviving Russian generals in Ukraine seems to command the others.

Remember that Hitler became commander in chief in 1935.

Incredible how the Kremlin has destroyed everything in the Russian military through corruption:

Sergei Chemezov of Rostec embezzles the arms procurement budget.

Yevgeny Prigozhin delivers substandard food.

Somebody buys cheap Chinese tires rather than high-quality tires.

Shoigu is considered a very rich man.

Soldiers sell the diesel.

Now a Russian soldier kindly sold his tank to the Ukrainians for $10,000 - that is the way to win over the Russian army of corruption.

Kleptocracies are not good at fighting wars & slaves rarely win over free men.

Putin's inner circle seems to be getting ever smaller...

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-23/russia-central-banker-wanted-out-over-ukraine-but-putin-said-no

I’m struggling to know if a shrinking inner circle is good or bad news for Ukraine. Good in that it would appear to be rats from a sinking ship but bad in that he is increasingly in an echo chamber of hatred.

news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-russia-declares-interest-in-hosting-2028-euros-taking-on-uk-ireland-bid-despite-international-football-ban-12573453

The Football Union of Russia posted on its website on Wednesday that it "supports the decision to declare interest in hosting the European Championship 2028 or 2032 in Russia".

Yeah it's a shame that a coup is so unlikely. Whenever there's good news it's kind of matched with this paradoxical fear of the outcome. Basically, the world feels screwed whether Putin wins or loses.

Those Wind of Change docs have gone a bit mad.

[quote Shuuu]@RedToothBrush so am I correct in thinking he can only be arrested/charged etc, if he’s out of power?[/quote]
Yes. And maybe not even then.

It depends on whether he retains the protection of the state or not, so his successors have to decide to arrest him or give permission for him to be arrested - not an outside organisation. At this point he could be extradited if Russia allowed it.

So for example a former president of the US retains diplomatic status. A subsequent one could decide to arrest them domestically or give permission for an arrest for a crime outside the country. This carries some risk though because if it is felt to be political the current President might be at risk of a revenge arrest when they too are out of office.

In practice this means that a president would have to have done something very repugnant, and there has to be significant cross political support or international support for a prosecution and this has to be also supported by the public in some way.

Of course there are situations where arrests by a state may be encouraged by things like the ongoing use of sanctions and barriers to international politics (Serbia) if there is a compelling case and the new government wont hand over someone.

It remains their choice but the incitive to give someone up might be very tempting.

what normally happens is that the tyrannical rulers of large countries like Stalin, Mao, Putin, Hitler die in office, isn't it.

I'd be up for letting Putin retire and letting him get off, galling as it is, since it's not possible to arrest him and if he was out of office hopefully someone with a more constructive attitude would be in charge. The only fly in the ointment is that he'd carry on plotting and he could still do a lot of damage.

Tyrannical dictators don't tend to get the option of retiring. They have raging megolomanic god complexs which mean they don't think anyone else is good enough and they have been selected by god to have a right to rule. Also they know they aren't safe to retire because they have created too many enemies so giving up power means they put themselves at risk because they are no longer in complete control.

Peter Baker @peterbakernyt
Satellite imagery shows that Russia has removed all of its aircraft from the Kherson airport, the largest city its forces have captured so far, a telltale sign that Russians are struggling as they seek to control the region.

So what have they decided to do?

⁦⁦Jack Detsch @JackDetsch
UPDATE: Russian forces are trying to go around the Mykolaiv in an offensive toward the port city of Odesa: UK Defense Intel

Ukraine has repeatedly repulsed 🇷🇺 forces advancing on Mykolaiv & is now "able and willing" to take back territory seized by Russia, U.S. officials said.

Think about this for a second. This doesn't sound like a good plan based on logistics...?!

Dan Lamothe @DanLamothe
NATO now appears to estimate that 7K to 15K Russian soldiers have been killed in one month in Ukraine.

1) Even the low end is extraordinary and likely to undermine mission.

2) Estimates best handled with humility. Pentagon said yesterday they have low confidence in their own.

It doesn't make any logistical sense but I'm struggling to believe they don't have a strategy

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani
Many argued that Europe can't stop buying Russian oil and gas and thus will continue funding Russian war machine. Well, it seems problem solved itself. Today Putin declared he'll sell Russian gas to unfriendly countries only for rubles

That makes position of those advocating for continuing this import much weaker. Just yesterday if you wanted to continue buying Russian gas you could simply keep status quo, which is easy procedure-wise. But now you'll have to abandon it and make active effort to keep import

Just yesterday those advocating for keeping the gas import from Russia had a high ground in a short term perspective. They could sabotage the efforts of those wanting to stop it while Russia keeps fighting. But now it's the opposite

Now opponents of gas import from Russia absolutely can sabotage the efforts of those who strive to continue it. You simply need to sabotage their every attempt to switch to rubles to pay for Russian gas until Russia loses. Under the EU vetocracy that's certainly a high ground

There is however a problem here. Russian gas continues flowing via Ukraine and Ukraine gets transit fees that help fund its war efforts. Absurd as it may sound, that's reality. Thus new sources of funding must be secured to compensate this loss, so that Ukraine can keep resisting

Russia Today chief Simonyan commented:

"Next step - barter payments with airplanes, high speed trains, whatever we need"

Sounds dumb. But it reflects the weak point of Russian economy: machinery. Russia desperately needs imported machinery and will soon be crumbling without it

Want our gas? Pay us in Boeing spare parts and ball bearings!

Just saw this on Twitter, thought it might be of interest to this thread:

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/zelensky-biden-abramovich-peace-talks-b2042478.html

Zelensky urged Biden against Roman Abramovich sanctions to help with Putin peace talks, report says

There is however a problem here. Russian gas continues flowing via Ukraine and Ukraine gets transit fees that help fund its war efforts. Absurd as it may sound, that's reality. Thus new sources of funding must be secured to compensate this loss, so that Ukraine can keep resisting

Hang on, let me make sure I understood this.

Ukraine get transit fees for the gas that finances the war there, the same gas that finances the Russian war?

Maybe the Chinese should do that whilst their Boeings are grounded.

It's a mess, with huge human misery at the heart of it. I really hope Ukraine can send them packing.

Natasha Bertrand
Breaking: The US government has formally declared that members of the Russian armed forces have committed war crimes in Ukraine, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement Wednesday. t.co/WvJpGxYvHD

EU Council
The EU has approved an additional €500 million to support the Ukrainian armed forces. The funds will finance the provision of equipment and supplies such as:

➡️personal protective equipment
➡️first aid kits and fuel
➡️military equipment and platforms

www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/european-peace-facility

Feels like a summers day today, that’s my heating off completely. Hopefully I won’t need to be sticking it on for an hour too often between now and winter.

There’s often a warm spell towards the end of March. The bad news is that April can be very cold and biting.

AFP News Agency @AFP
#BREAKING Russia's demand for gas payment in rubles a 'breach of contract': Germany

@RedToothBrush

AFP News Agency *@AFP* #BREAKING Russia's demand for gas payment in rubles a 'breach of contract': Germany

I’m sure Putin’s quaking in his boots at the thought of him or his government being sued for breach of contract ATM….

Kevin Rothrock @KevinRothrock
Russian journalist and former Navalny activist Oksana Baulina is killed in a Russian air strike in Kyiv along with another civilian

@MrsPsmalls The point here is that cutting our military by 10,000 and specifically the infantry by 4000 (to less than 19000) is somewhat premature.

We just don't yet know how the world will look in 12 months time, its lot easier to get rid than recruit from scratch, we already delayed the Challenger 3 tank until 2030... as Boris thought we'd never have trad warfare again (the clip with him arguing this last year is quite funny)

Johnson said: “We have to recognise that the old concepts of fighting big tank battles on European land mass are over and there are other better things we should be investing in

this is from November 2021, by then Putin already had 10s of 1000s of troops nr Ukraine and plenty of tanks!

Yes some uk troops are going to Eastern Europe but if its a surprise than they haven't been paying attention!