Ukraine-invasion-part-16

[PestorPeston]

Warsaw Russian is letting out a lot of smoke - there has been no decision on who among them will be the next pontiff.

Biden is going there Friday

Is Boris Johnson the designated survivor?

Who the heck let me be in charge?

@RedToothBrush I am a big believer in Hanlon's Razor too. I used to ascribe it to my old boss regularly (poor old boss).

@TiddyTidTwo if it is found to be deliberate what we do will be determined by what we want... if we want to go head-to-head with Putin, we release that we know it was an act of terror... if we want to maintain the stance of appeasement, we classify that information under the OSA.

It's worrying that Russia want Europe to pay for gas in rubles. We (and I mean "we" as all countries supporting Ukraine, esp Europe and the UK) need to reduce our dependency on them. We are helping to fund this war and now we are helping to prop up their currency. It's indirect in the UK as we are not as dependent on Russian gas as mainland Europe, but any reduction from us frees up more Norwegian gas for Europe.

Could a behavioural change campaign save energy and cut Russian gas imports?
A call for collective action could help UK pivot away from dependence on Russian fossil fuels
www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/mar/23/could-a-behavioural-change-campaign-save-energy-and-cut-russian-gas-imports

Please don’t compare Ukraine to Brexit, Petro Poroshenko asks Boris Johnson
Former president rejects PM’s conference remarks, saying ‘zero’ citizens died over vote to leave EU
www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/23/please-dont-compare-ukraine-to-brexit-petro-poroshenko-asks-boris-johnson

Wasn't trading oil in other than dollars what did for Iraq and Syria ?

Isn't there an OPEC regulation that oil only be traded in dollars. Or at least approved currencies ?

LBC News@LBCNews
Russia has declared an interest in hosting Euro 2028 or Euro 2032, the country's football federation has said.

Some context: the only other bid for Euro 2028 was a joint one between Ireland, NI, England, Scotland and Wales.

It looked like it was going to be a done deal, with Russia the only other country considering a bid. The expectation was it wouldn't under the circumstances.

So its doing to this wind up Russian football fans and to make them go "the evil west all are baddies its so unfair".

Equally @TiddyTidTwo if we really want to go head-to-head with Putin, it doesn't even have to be true - politicians use excuses and half truths to justify their actions on the regular (I see you 'sexed up dossier').

CNBC @CNBC
India's rupee-ruble trade arrangement with Russia may be ready in a week, says export body chief

www.cnbc.com/2022/03/23/fieo-india-rupee-ruble-trade-mechanism-with-russia-may-be-ready-soon.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_content=Main&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1648027080
India’s rupee-ruble trade arrangement with Russia may be ready in a week, says export body chief

India’s finance ministry and the Reserve Bank of India have not commented so far on the mechanism, which would let Indian exporters continue their business with Russia even after Western sanctions restricted international payment mechanisms.

Seems this was a know loophole problem:

Robin Brooks @RobinBrooksIIF Mar 22
Russia's financial conditions are easing. After the initial shock of sanctions, financial conditions tightened, due to Ruble & equity falls. But half that has now unwound, NOT because sanctions don't work, but as hard currency inflows from energy exports are a loophole for Putin.

Pmk.

I think the American guy just has illusions about what a dictatorship under a great, strong, uuuge leader actually looks like. Is that the guy who was sentenced for storming Capitol last year?

He was charged last July and then fled to Ukraine before his trial, so not been sentenced yet. The charges were serious too, including assaulting a police officer.

The really funny thing is that he thinks / hopes that his wife may join him. In Belarus, from the USA

That is funny. The guy is from California. She's probably thinking "This is my lucky day!".

Agree with RTB re: Hanlon's Razor.

It's a huge reach to be thinking that this is a chemical attack on the UK at this stage.

Posted too soon.

People make fuck ups at work every day. Our water company massively overdosed our water with chlorine a few months back and made it completely undrinkable for days - everyone who did had raging stomach upsets. They treat water every day and they still managed to monumentally cock it up.

It's surprisingly easy to make chlorine gas accidentally. I wouldn't panic about this yet.

Putin seems to be growing ever more desperate. I think he’s finally realised this isn’t a war he’s going to win or win anytime soon.

Probably silly question but, should EU allow Putin to attend any meetings that’ll allow an opportunity to arrest him for war crimes? We don’t want him to stay in Russia do we, or else he’ll never face them

“Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu vanishes 'with heart problems' as strains appear in his relationship with Putin over Ukraine war and his daughter poses in Ukraine colours”

Reported by daily Mail. Perhaps take it with a pinch of salt. I hope this is what we’ve been waiting for, his inner circle is collapsing

Great article shared on this equally good thread about the use of nuclear weapons and the danger of gung-ho public discussions happening around them now: twitter.com/cirincione/status/1506646860655697920?s=21

Huge increase in NATO troops to Eastern Europe, inc 100,000 US.

Boris still going ahead with further Defence cuts.

@Alexandra2001

Huge increase in NATO troops to Eastern Europe, inc 100,000 US.

Boris still going ahead with further Defence cuts.

But a lot of British troops who didn't expect to be headed that way already headed of to Ukrainian borders also.

The gas leak at the London Aquatics Centre is far more likely to be cock up than conspiracy. There have been a number of these kinds of leaks over the years. If you're wondering is it Russian terrorist activity you have to ask what would they gain by carrying this out at a swimming pool? Far more likely, if they wanted to do something like that, they'd target the underground as happened in Japan in 1995 in the domestic terror attack there.

@Alexandra2001

Huge increase in NATO troops to Eastern Europe, inc 100,000 US.

Boris still going ahead with further Defence cuts.

that man's timing is ... something else, isnt it.

@WeAreTheHeroes

The gas leak at the London Aquatics Centre is far more likely to be cock up than conspiracy. There have been a number of these kinds of leaks over the years. If you're wondering is it Russian terrorist activity you have to ask what would they gain by carrying this out at a swimming pool? Far more likely, if they wanted to do something like that, they'd target the underground as happened in Japan in 1995 in the domestic terror attack there.

Happened at our local pool a few years ago, quite common I believe.

@TiddyTidTwo

I shall reserve judgment on the chlorine leak but I'm suspicious....

So, let's say it emerges that it is deliberate and not an accident. Then what?

War.

Chemical leaks in pools are very common. A quick Google shows dozens of incidents from around the world in the past year or so alone.

The tone of these threads seems to have changed since halfway through the last one.

There are more hawkish posters, but also a lot more premature overreactions and assumptions of the worst and the more moderate posters who appear to have additional knowledge and experience and a more measured tone seem to have dissipated somewhat and be posting more infrequently.

I'm not trying to thread police before I get jumped on - just an observation that there seems to be a marked undercurrent lately that I didn't notice before.

Ok most likely just coincidental timing then.

That overhead view of Mariupol is heartbreaking. So much distraction and so many lives that have to have been lost.

What’s left to us to throttle the war machine if they’re finding ways around the sanctions? Is Germany going to be able to pay in ruples or will that cut them off?

Feels like a summers day today, that’s my heating off completely. Hopefully I won’t need to be sticking it on for an hour too often between now and winter.

@Shuuu

Putin seems to be growing ever more desperate. I think he’s finally realised this isn’t a war he’s going to win or win anytime soon.

Probably silly question but, should EU allow Putin to attend any meetings that’ll allow an opportunity to arrest him for war crimes? We don’t want him to stay in Russia do we, or else he’ll never face them

Diplomatic immunity exists to protect all government leaders and key officials so they aren't maliciously arrested.

(think about the situation in reverse)

So no he can't be arrested.

@toastfiend

The tone of these threads seems to have changed since halfway through the last one.

There are more hawkish posters, but also a lot more premature overreactions and assumptions of the worst and the more moderate posters who appear to have additional knowledge and experience and a more measured tone seem to have dissipated somewhat and be posting more infrequently.

I'm not trying to thread police before I get jumped on - just an observation that there seems to be a marked undercurrent lately that I didn't notice before.

I suppose that as it drags on people change. I was very much in fear and not wanting to get pulled in in the early days. But now even I'm having moments of 'FFS let's just nuke the bastard'.

🤣 it's good to reflect toast.

Do you think it's because we have got over the sheer oh my god he's done it invaded shock?

Which came with Putin has gone mad, in isolation and is dying of cancer?

Things seem more measured, Ukraine didn't fold instantly like Afghanistan and now, taking stock and feeling fleetingly calmer, poster are feeling slightly more confident about a push back?