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Ukraine-invasion-part-16

991 replies

PestorPeston · 22/03/2022 23:46

Warsaw Russian is letting out a lot of smoke - there has been no decision on who among them will be the next pontiff.

Biden is going there Friday

Is Boris Johnson the designated survivor?

Who the heck let me be in charge?

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18
RedToothBrush · 26/03/2022 08:48

Ian Birrell @ianbirrel
Russian forces moved back last night into the centre of Slavutych, the Soviet model town built for Chernobyl workers after the 1986 disaster. Residents went out to protest in big numbers this morning chanting ‘Putin is a fucker’

Yet again we see the amazing Ukrainian resistance to occupation. The Russians have responded with tear gas. The mayor Yuri Fomichev - who texted me an hour ago - has been abducted, according to Kyiv administration.

Photos and video in original tweet.

PaperTyger · 26/03/2022 08:49

Very interesting on what's going on in the Kremlin red!

I don't think it's a big leap to suggest that few people around Putin would have wanted this.
They like Ukraine were merrily going on with their lives, probably planning summer's in Italy, France on their yachts, visiting children who enjoy liberal life across the globe in London, New York.
In one fell swoop they are financially buggered.
Persona non Grata
hated and despised.
All their energy going into hiding money, panicking etc.

Igor on twitter posts wind of change supposed leak's from the fsb. I don't know if he does translate or not. He could be writing a novel.
But what he reports is Very natural stuff.

And not all fsb want this either.

I can't imagine Putin has any support at all really.
So a coup, or plots... isn't far fetched at all.

ChardonnaysPetDragon · 26/03/2022 08:54

Something major happened between the 13th and 17th. Something big enough that caused Lavrov to be recalled to Moscow.

Clearly something happened. But why would he recall Lavrov? He's a completely different cup of tea, he's not someone Putin would have needed in that particular crisis with FSB. Lavrov being called is worth less than his meeting with China, which can even be seen as a snub to China.

Sorry, not sure how clearly I put my thoughts here. I might have had some, or more, wine last night.

PestorPeston · 26/03/2022 08:59

Busy week and struggling to catch up.
That is quite some purge, is there anyone left in Putin's former inner circle?

www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/the-purges-in-putins-shrinking-inner-circle

This sort of sums up my feelings at the moment. twitter.com/BachanskiCezary/status/1507394755180777477
You will see that the next president of Russia will be #RomanAbramovich
Today he is rumored to be in Poland. Biden did not sanction him. The President of Ukraine asked not to impose sanctions. They're getting him ready. You will see. There will be no better candidate.

No more farcical that any other idea out there.

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PaperTyger · 26/03/2022 09:07

Dr blackbird exactly!

It would all be over!

There is no cause or ideology here to battle
Just evil wicked Putin.

toastfiend · 26/03/2022 09:08

I'm not hugely surprised that Shoigu and Gerasimov (and others) have disappeared.

The Russian military hasn't performed to the standard we've all been led to believe they would, it's clear that the intelligence reported to the Kremlin has been flawed, corruption is rife and money intended for the military has lined pockets elsewhere - Putin might be willing to look elsewhere when that happens more generally, but not when it ultimately leads to personal humiliation on the world stage, and he's never going to accept that it's indicative of a wider problem with him and his regime rather than with those individuals.

Being removed for incompetence from the Kremlin was never going to look like someone walking out looking embarrassed and carrying a cardboard box of the family pictures that were on their desks.

DrBlackbird · 26/03/2022 09:11

You will see that the next president of Russia will be #RomanAbramovich. Today he is rumored to be in Poland. Biden did not sanction him. The President of Ukraine asked not to impose sanctions. They're getting him ready. You will see. There will be no better candidate.

Even if that’s a joke, Roman better find a safe place to hide.

PaperTyger · 26/03/2022 09:11

Roman is an interesting figure.
He's got Jewish Ukraine heritage. His family were sent to Siberia or somewhere at some point and he lost both parent's by the age of four.

Zelensky personally requested that he be left alone from sanctions exactly so he could be free to move around and perhaps be a go between.

He went to Israel and then it was admitted that to begin with he was involved.
I can't imagine he's going to be happy about Putins actions here.
His entire cosy Life has been instantly uprooted.

If Putin goes I don't see how the population would be contained.
Surely they would demand democracy.

borntobequiet · 26/03/2022 09:13

That New Yorker article is interesting and also dispiriting in that it says that

What are you hoping to happen here? I mean, obviously, I’m sure, for the war to end, but is there an off-ramp you see for Putin and Russia? How is Russia going to reconstitute itself?

It’s a very hard question, to be fair. We are always trying to make these comparisons with the late nineteen-eighties, before the collapse of the Soviet Union, and then we got perestroika and all of that. So maybe is it possible to repeat the same thing? I was fifteen years old, but still I remember that back then there was this cheerful mood that people were good, and it was just the system that was bad. So back then maybe I was naïve, maybe my parents were naïve and my friends were naïve, but we had this idea that it was only because of the Communist Party and the K.G.B., and if you could get rid of them everything was going to be fine. People are good. Even the people, say, in the military and in the security services. They were just pressured to be bad and to serve the system.

These days, unfortunately, we don’t have this excuse. We do have lots of people who support the war, unfortunately. Yes, I understand that it’s about propaganda, and it’s about fear, and people are really fearful. They understand what is at stake, and these select repressions were quite successful at freezing society. But, nonetheless, there’s so many people who support the war, and, to be honest, I just don’t know the answer. I don’t know how to get them back as humans.

PaperTyger · 26/03/2022 09:15

Chardonnay at that time re lavrof I think all that was coinciding with how China would react , USA talking to them.
I had a feeling the return was because Beijing had said they are sort of in the middle and won't supply arm's or money?
I'e don't bother coming?

PaperTyger · 26/03/2022 09:18

As an aside lavrofs smiling smirking Face has for me been the Face of this assault,the lies he's perpetrated , knowing full well it's absolutely rubbish, smirking and lying.Angry at last his family here has been sanctioned!

PaperTyger · 26/03/2022 09:20

If this Man has "disappeared" who has his nuclear key

jgw1 · 26/03/2022 09:21

@PaperTyger

If this Man has "disappeared" who has his nuclear key
don't worry its safe with Putin.
PestorPeston · 26/03/2022 09:25

Lavrov seems to be the last man standing in the old inner circle.

Abramovich is only partly a joke. If you needed to have an interim government whilst freeing political prisoners, setting up legitimate parties and an election, he is a fairly sensible choice.

On the other hand, heart attacks in Russia sometimes involve an ice pick.

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PaperTyger · 26/03/2022 09:32

If Putin is on a power trip, it's the ultimate power trip

notimagain · 26/03/2022 09:36

@PaperTyger

If this Man has "disappeared" who has his nuclear key
There may not be a key...

General point here is that will be few if any in the west who know the exact mechanics of the Russian nuclear release system and those that do will stay tight lipped.

The end users of some systems do use physical keys (and if there is a key there may actually only be one...) but that may well not be the case further up in the chain of command.....release might be authorised electronically/verbally.

It's even possible in theory (worse case) that Putin can order nuclear release without any input from any other individual.

Whether that order would be followed down the chain of command???

wonderfullife123 · 26/03/2022 09:46

'Proof of life' video of Shoigu. Odd cutaways throughout.
twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1507634022993866758?t=75U2qCV9pQ3VIEJgfiu9cw&s=19

PaperTyger · 26/03/2022 09:52

Weird wonderful.
What a stilted boring Man I wonder what he's saying?
They all look incredibly bored/worried and scared.

PaperTyger · 26/03/2022 09:53

Not.

Re key , I didn't think there would be a literal key personally more key as in case/code/permission etc.

PupInAPram · 26/03/2022 09:59

Is Putin saying Russia will now concentrate on 'liberating' the Donbas a reason to pull back Russian troops so that he can use some very nasty weapons with impunity?

PaperTyger · 26/03/2022 10:03

Pup

If he use's nasty weapons on the area he want's to liberate? What's that saying?

notimagain · 26/03/2022 10:06

@PaperTyger

Not.

Re key , I didn't think there would be a literal key personally more key as in case/code/permission etc.

Ah OK.

If he's gone missing to the Russian authorities and the worry is he might do something unauthorised then I suspect they'd change the codes/keywords etc so that they no longer give the individual access.

It's a bit like the requirement some places have to change the combination on a safe the minute one of those who had legitimate access to its contents leaves the company/organisation/unit to work elsewhere.

PupInAPram · 26/03/2022 10:13

@PaperTyger

Pup

If he use's nasty weapons on the area he want's to liberate? What's that saying?

The same thing it says when he indiscriminately bombs hospitals and schools. "I will win at any price and spin it to the Russian people what ever way I like".
DGRossetti · 26/03/2022 10:27

@PupInAPram

Is Putin saying Russia will now concentrate on 'liberating' the Donbas a reason to pull back Russian troops so that he can use some very nasty weapons with impunity?
Seems a combination of the West actually growing some spine, and the discreet Chinese statement may be the answer. In which case I suspect we will see efforts to scare the west (via MN Grin) being ramped up to the ^max. Which (to me) would be proof (again) that it's working.

I also expect to hear some "debate" in the political circles - prompted by the fact that some of our elected MPs are definitely on the take - suggesting that sanctions be relaxed now.

I know one person who would love to disappear all sanctions (and probably the entire Ukraine too). And that's Rishi Sunak. The man whose plan to be PM is in danger of hitting a wife tied to the tracks. I bet Putin is having a quiet smile to himself over that piece of mischief. Which is no reason whatsoever to let slippery Sunak off the hook. Dogs, fleas etc.

Igotjelly · 26/03/2022 10:30

[quote wonderfullife123]'Proof of life' video of Shoigu. Odd cutaways throughout.
twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1507634022993866758?t=75U2qCV9pQ3VIEJgfiu9cw&s=19[/quote]
Lots of speculation that it’s a fake video or at least doctored heavily