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Ukraine-invasion-part-16

991 replies

PestorPeston · 22/03/2022 23:46

Warsaw Russian is letting out a lot of smoke - there has been no decision on who among them will be the next pontiff.

Biden is going there Friday

Is Boris Johnson the designated survivor?

Who the heck let me be in charge?

OP posts:
Thread gallery
18
Shuuu · 25/03/2022 22:53

What are the chances of these people disappearing to form a coup? I can’t shake the feeling something is coming soon. For anybody who’s anxious I don’t mean in a negative way.

RedToothBrush · 25/03/2022 22:57

Mattia Nelles @mattia_n
I just got off the phone with someone in Kherson. He/she says that it was quiet in southern Kherson today but described A LOT of Russian military movement and buildup of defensive positions.

Another source reported hearing fighting in northern suburbs of Kherson last night.

notimagain · 25/03/2022 23:00

@Shuuu

What are the chances of these people disappearing to form a coup? I can’t shake the feeling something is coming soon. For anybody who’s anxious I don’t mean in a negative way.
Chances are v small...

They would have to avoid the attention of the FSB who are probably over Moscow like a rash at the moment..but I'd be quite happy be proved wrong.

shreddednips · 25/03/2022 23:22

@Shuuu

What are the chances of these people disappearing to form a coup? I can’t shake the feeling something is coming soon. For anybody who’s anxious I don’t mean in a negative way.
Very unlikely I would have thought, but so many improbable things have happened recently that i suppose it's possible. This is wild speculation, but it seems a bit suspect that Shoigu and Gerasimov have both become suddenly absent, plus a change in tack from Russia, plus reports of discord slipping into press coverage. This makes me wonder if they have both defected, leaving Putin struggling to maintain control without his lackeys and scrambling to salvage the situation. Also find it interesting that Macron is proposing a peace mission now and wonder if something in particular has made him think that now is the time to suggest it.

I've had two glasses of wine though so there are probably massive holes in my theory. God knows how he would even go about defecting.

RedToothBrush · 26/03/2022 02:27

This makes me wonder if they have both defected, leaving Putin struggling to maintain control without his lackeys and scrambling to salvage the situation.

Shreddednips i dont know if you are right however you aren't the only person picking up on this as a possibility.

Anders Aslund @andersaslund
The big Russia-Ukraine news today is that Colonel-General Sergei Rudskoi, the deputy chief of the Russian armed forces' General Staff held a press conference with two other generals. He announced changed goals of the war on Ukraine.

Rudskoi said there had been two prior variants for Russia in Ukraine.
First to limit the operation to the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk.
Second “operations on the whole territory of Ukraine with implementation of measures of demilitarization and denazification"

Now Rudskoi stated that the initial goal of what Moscow calls a "military operation in Ukraine" was to take over Ukraine's eastern regions of Luhansk and Donetsk.
That is a person low down in the Russian rank changes the aim of the war after one month.

This should have been done by Putin, Shoigu or Gerasimov. Why didn't they do so? They might have been all too embarrassed and kicked out their underling. Alternatively, the apparently still functioning general staff said: Enough is enough to their superiors.

To me, this looks as if the Russian General Staff is trying to salvage their remaining military resources before the Ukrainians devastate them and hold on to some gains. As the Ukrainians are starting their offensive, they have no reason to stop now. Russia must leave Ukraine!

It is interesting, and positive, that the Russian General Staff dared to stick out its neck like this. It will be very interesting to see how the Kremlin (madman Putin) responds to this. Have the Generals cast the glove?

Look at this picture! After Putin has made a complete mess of his war on Ukraine for one month, three generals from the General Staff give a press conference and say that their war aim is much less than megalomaniac Putin's. It suggests a certain tension in the Russian leadership

I think we could explain away Putin, Shoigu and Gerasimov not being seen publicly by the fact that they are all cowardly and utterly convinced that there is a massive risk to them so they've all run off to separate bunkers, rather than go down the route any of them having met with a high window. And if they are suitcase holders it would be prudent. Notably even Putin has only been seen in that clip of the video call since the rally. I also note there is a very senior Russian MP who is currently gravely ill with covid (he was reported as dead and then it was said gravely ill instead) so there may be real paranoia from that too.

Shoigu was apparently last seen on 13th when rumours started to fly that he was dismissed then it was denied. Then on 17th there was a lot of Russian government and army plane action which some argued was normal but others (are still saying as its apparently ongoing) isn't normal. Then on 18th Putin had his rally. Then it went very quiet from the very top. Thats a week ago now.

And now you have these much lower ranked generals saying this - keeping in mind 7 generals are rumoured to have died. Men the same rank... And at least one as the result of a fragging incident. If they are burning through generals at such a rank, i cant imagine even the generals fancy being sent to Ukraine... They may feel like they have little to lose if they push back against their superiors at this point in that context. Indeed the entire point of fragging was to intimidate superior ranks and to get them to be less enthusiastic about the war in Vietnam...

So to my mind something happened around the 16th / 17th in terms of what Putin himself was thinking and how he viewed the war. There was a massive panic. And then something else happened post rally or at the rally (what happened with the cut feed). Simply because Putin hasn't been doing more rousing. It is like he is spooked.

Putin is thought to say he is prepared to lose up to 50000 troops. But to have that many dead how many wounded does that work out at? Even at 1:2 ratio thats 50000 dead and 100000 injured. Thats almost the size of the entire Russian Army at the start of the campaign! If you take it as 50000 casualties including wounded we are already past that point. And quite honestly at what point would you expect even the generals to be going 'im not doing this shit anymore'.

Whats also interesting is its not just these three that have been quiet. Lavrov is about the only one who has been seen. 3 days ago when he admitted Russia hadn't been expecting sanctions to go that far.

A few days ago, the executive director of Bellingcat commented on a CNN interview with a Putin spokesman who said Russia could not rule out nukes

Is it just me or did Peskov appear on the verge of saying "f* this, can't do this anymore".

And there was the incident of the US face to face meeting with a Russian general in Moscow where the Americans commented that he lost his calm and they thought he was going to go even more crazy and they came to the conclusion that morale in the Russian army was exceptionally low even at this high level...

I don't think a coup is on the cards. But something isn't right in the top circles of the army and the Russian state generally.

I also note, where is Belarus? Rumour was they were supposed to join the war on Monday but didn't for some reason. Yesterday was a significant day Belarus freedom day - their independence day from 1918, so its a sensitive week so perhaps that explains the delay and they will now join in... But note the change in goals. Belarusian troups going over the border to tackle Lviv doesn't fit well with the readjusted stated goals... Think about that. That also potentially an admission they cannot reasonably stop the supply chain from the west, if the Belarusian plan is canned for whatever reason. We know the Belarusians aren't being moved to the Donbas cos satellites....

And Russia transferring troops to Ukraine from occupied parts of Georgia is a clear gamble. There are now rumours of press ganging of Russian men of older than military age and the news about the youth organisation of 16/17 year olds being called up thats not normal.

Neither is withdrawing your occupying force a good sign of a successful deal in 'im getting all the foreign troops in' either. Arguably its not looking as successful a recruitment drive as wished for.

In this context, ask again, who leaked the number of deaths to Russian media before it was deleted?

Why did 3 more junior generals announce this?

No one of these things alone can demonstrate anything telling or conclusive ... But the bigger picture does start to make you wonder about the size of those cracks when you put all this different pieces together in one place.

RedToothBrush · 26/03/2022 02:46

Oil rises to over $120 a barrel after attack on Saudi oil facilities.

Interesting timing...

blueshoes · 26/03/2022 02:56

RedToothBrush I try not to get my hopes up but reading the latest developments presented in that way, it is certainly strange that Russia seems to be distancing itself from its earlier more ambitious goals via a less senior officer and for the evil trio to go quiet.

If I were a general, why would I want to go to fight a war in which I could get killed by defenders as well as my own mutinous men in order to kill people who are my kin. Seems like a death wish to be sent to Ukriane. Hell in all its glory. I watched the video of the commander who was stretchered off after his legs got run over by his men's tank. I suspect despite his grievous injuries, he was half relieved to get out of the battlefield. I can see why the remaining generals might be pushing back on going out to Ukraine.

MagicFox · 26/03/2022 06:36

BBC reporting that Shoigu has had a heart attack

MagicFox · 26/03/2022 06:37

@shreddednips I've wondered that too about Macron. The decision came after a call with Putin after all

ChardonnaysPetDragon · 26/03/2022 07:15

What are the chances of these people disappearing to form a coup? I can’t shake the feeling something is coming soon. For anybody who’s anxious I don’t mean in a negative way.

It would be the other way round. Disappearing because they might have tried to stage one.

ChardonnaysPetDragon · 26/03/2022 07:17

I watched the video of the commander who was stretchered off after his legs got run over by his men's tank. I suspect despite his grievous injuries, he was half relieved to get out of the battlefield.

I seriously doubt he was relieved, seeing as he subsequently died of his wounds.

Alexandra2001 · 26/03/2022 07:19

So NATO forms 4 battle groups in Eastern Europe, ups the ante on more advanced weapons to Ukraine, major exercises in Norway.. Ukraine attacks a Russian supply ship... US agrees to 100k troops in Europe, many NATO states agree extra defence spending.

Despite howls of protest from Russia and our own understandable fears of Nuclear or Chemical attack, what do we actually get? (on face value) ...

...Russia shifts tack and changes their focus to Donbass, as many have said, facing up to Putin is the only thing he gets.

Feeling slightly more positive for Ukraine

Alexandra2001 · 26/03/2022 07:21

@ChardonnaysPetDragon

I watched the video of the commander who was stretchered off after his legs got run over by his men's tank. I suspect despite his grievous injuries, he was half relieved to get out of the battlefield.

I seriously doubt he was relieved, seeing as he subsequently died of his wounds.

Yes i thought he died too, i guess being run over by a tank isn't the same as being run over by a wheelbarrow.
RedToothBrush · 26/03/2022 07:23

Aldin @aldin_ww
On month into the invasion of Ukraine and we still haven't seen Russian Minister of Defense, Shoigu, visiting troops nor at the border nor inside Ukraine.. Something is happening for sure, what exactly, time will tell..

Shoigu is known for his pr team and his photo ops.

So the consensus definitely is that something is going on. Its just not entirely clear what.

There is a rumour circulating that Dmitry Vitalyevich Bulgakov has been the Acting Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation since the 14th March.

Which opens another question: where is he too?

If Shoigu legitimately has had a heart attack, why cover it up? Because it makes you look weak / out of control? Because its thought its bad for morale? I dunno.

But NEITHER Shoigu or Bulgakov are being seen.

In a midst of a war like this, not having a leader to rally the troops and be seen is in itself problematic to morale. (see thread by Mark Hertling the otherday upthread).

It is perfectly possible that Shoigu is dead and they are covering it up, but for now I will go with the 'had a heart attack' line for the sake of not getting carried away with rumours too much. Yet.

You cannot hide something that big for long.

RedToothBrush · 26/03/2022 07:43

@ChardonnaysPetDragon

What are the chances of these people disappearing to form a coup? I can’t shake the feeling something is coming soon. For anybody who’s anxious I don’t mean in a negative way.

It would be the other way round. Disappearing because they might have tried to stage one.

Another question in the context of Shoigu disappearing around 13th March and then the weird plane activity on the 17th. Including the very significant and noticable issue of Lavrov being on route to Beijing then turning around and going back to Moscow. Then on the 18th Putin was seen very publicly indeed at the rally.

Bortnikov, the head of the FSB was in those cryptic messages from Ukrainian sources about him plotting to replace Putin on the 21st (I think).

Bortnikov also hasn't been seen publicly.
Nor have two other security chiefs Zolotov and Kostyukov.

The Moscow Times published an article relating to this
www.moscowtimes.ru/2022/03/25/iz-publichnogo-prostranstva-rossii-propali-pochti-vse-osnovnie-siloviki-a18986

The head of the National Guard, Viktor Zolotov , disappeared on March 13, right after he went to the Cathedral of Christ the Savior and accepted the icon from the hands of the Patriarch himself. Then Zolotov complained to the Primate of the Russian Orthodox Church that in the war with Ukraine "not everything is going as fast as we would like." Prior to that, on March 11, Zolotov presented awards to the Russian Guardsmen who distinguished themselves in hostilities. There were no more videos of him.

The last photo with Zolotov hangs on the website of the Russian Guard in a publication dated March 22. It says that he held a working meeting in Moscow with the leadership of the department.

At the same time, after March 13, the name of Zolotov was mentioned in the news of the state media only in connection with the sanctions of Japan and the United States. On March 17, information appeared that Zolotov allegedly fired his deputy Roman Gavrilov. According to some reports, Gavrilov was his close friend and was "person number 2" in the Russian Guard. mediaclaimed that Gavrilov was detained on suspicion of embezzling funds from the National Guard, which were intended for fighters fighting in Ukraine

It details how there were no more photos of Gerasimov after 12 March.

And

On March 24, the Pentagon announced that Gerasimov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu were refusing to speak to them on the phone

And

There is no information about the Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Federation Igor Kostyukov. Recently, only the former Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Arsen Avakov wrote about him. According to his sources, Kostyukov's health has "drastically deteriorated" - the military man is experiencing a "burning sensation in the heart."

And

Alexander Bortnikov appeared only at meetings of the Security Council led by Putin on March 24 and 11 . At the same time, the director of the FSB was dressed in the same clothes (even the color of the tie was the same - red), behind him the same background, and the frame itself was exactly the same angle. On both broadcasts, Bortnikov appears only for a few seconds and does not utter a word. There is no more news about him.

What happened? Something did. Whether they decided to bunker up, flee the country, got bumped off, attempted a coup around the 13th - 17th that necessitated Putin's very hastily planned rally is the question we don't know the answer to. But something happened.

Macron checking in on Putin regularly also becomes more interesting in this context...

RedToothBrush · 26/03/2022 07:52

Btw, that Ukrainian message on 21st about Bortnikov perhaps suddenly fits into place if there WAS an attempted coup that failed / or he fleed abroad sometime between the 13th and 17th.

Its meaning then changes to a rather more cheeky and direct 'we know what happened and how you are trying to cover it up' rather than speculating that something will happen in the future.

It makes people start to ask questions about the whereabouts of Bortnikov if the Ukrainians know he's already disappeared some how.

I think its interesting and definitely worth seeing how it develops.

notimagain · 26/03/2022 08:20
Hmm

TBH whilst I’ll probably be proved wrong I’m thinking of the old saying that “if it looks like a duck…” and am therefore inclined towards the use of Occam’s device here rather than getting to enmeshed in scenarios within scenarios…

If, as it very much looks, Russian Forces are performing not as was promised at the pre-invasion meetings with Putin then one very strong option for the assumed disappearances is something along the lines of a re-run of the 1941 Red Army purge…

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1941_Red_Army_Purge

ChardonnaysPetDragon · 26/03/2022 08:21

What happened? Something did. Whether they decided to bunker up, flee the country, got bumped off, attempted a coup around the 13th - 17th that necessitated Putin's very hastily planned rally is the question we don't know the answer to. But something happened.

It looks like a good old fashioned purge, tbh.

MagicFox · 26/03/2022 08:26

It'd be nice to think there were sensible non-megalomaniacs who don't want it to go to far but I suspect you're right with the good old fashioned purge

DrBlackbird · 26/03/2022 08:28

You can see how tempting it must be in that IF something were to happen to Putin in that he was suddenly indisposed, how easy it could be for the rest of the Kremlin to lay the entire blame on him.

‘Putin’s war’ could be stopped, sanctions lifted, negotiations over the so-called separatist regions could take place under a ceasefire and the oligarchs could have their drivers and cleaners and yachts back.

I wonder how much loyalty he commands from those guarding him?

MagicFox · 26/03/2022 08:29

I think he's pretty coup-proof Sad

ChardonnaysPetDragon · 26/03/2022 08:33

He has something stronger than loyalty.

Fear. Which in turn probably made them give him unrealistic assurances and has now cost them all dearly, Putin included.

Alexandra2001 · 26/03/2022 08:38

@ChardonnaysPetDragon

He has something stronger than loyalty.

Fear. Which in turn probably made them give him unrealistic assurances and has now cost them all dearly, Putin included.

To have fear over people, he needs loyalty and a power base for his threats to carry weight.

History is littered with people who thought they were untouchable ... but weren't.

At the very beginning of this saga, an American intelligence guy said all that has to happen is the people around Putin to realise they are better off without him.

Perhaps that time is upon us?

RedToothBrush · 26/03/2022 08:45

A thread and replies from the 17th March about Zolotov's number 2. (was said at the time it was weird how Zolotov seemingly wasn't held responsible and was somehow untouchable and the blame was instead pinned on Gavrilov.

Christo Grozev @christogrozev
Three independent sources report that the deputy chief of Russia's Rosgvardia (a unit of RU's interior army which has had tremendous losses in Ukraine), Gen. Roman Gavrilov has been detained by FSB. Gavrilov had also previously worked in FSO, Putin's security service.

The reason for the detention is unclear: per one source he was detained by FSB's military counter-intelligence department over "leaks of military info that led to loss of life", while two others say it was "wasteful squandering of fuel", ahem.

While it's hard to guess what exactly the purge/reshuffling at the top of the siloviks will result in, one thing is clear: it's doubtless that Putin recognizes the deep s**t this operation is in. I.e. it's so bad that he changes horses in midstream - a big no-no during war.

"Totally untrue, I just spoke with the general", posts senior United Russia official Alexander Hinshsten.
t.me/Hinshtein/1953

..and now Russian media report he's been fired.
m.ura.news/news/1052539299

Anders Aslund @andersaslund
This is very interesting. The head of the foreign department of FSB was put in house arrest. Now, the FSB arrests the deputy of General Viktor Zolotov, the head of the (useless) Rosgvardia & Putin's favorite. The Chechens operate as part of Rosgvardia.

This looks like a struggle between the FSB and Putin's more loyal siloviki - Rosgvardia, Zolotov, Kadyrovtsy & FSO. FSB is usually considered the strongest & here it took the initiative against the deputy of Putin's favorite Zolotov (who seems as dumb as they come).

An obvious guess is that this is the beginning of an FSB attempt to oust Putin, which I would welcome. The important thing is that madman Putin is stopped before he uses ABC weapons in Ukraine, not who takes him out.

Now pinch of salt time on the above. But interesting to see the talk of an internal power struggle on the 17th between departments was happening at the time. Zolotov's subsequent disappearance is curious if he was considered one of Putin's most loyal.

Something major happened between the 13th and 17th. Something big enough that caused Lavrov to be recalled to Moscow.

I think that Lavrov probably wasn't refused entry by Beijing now. A crisis was occurring in Moscow.

What the implications over Russian / Chinese relation are/were I don't know. But the Chinese might have got cold feet over supporting a Russian government they were aware was having enough of a crisis to recall Lavrov. Noting that on the 17th the US were also issuing very strong warnings to the Chinese. My suspicion is the Americans also knew something was going on and it was a good moment to emphasise a few things to the Chinese as a result.

Moving forward to yesterday in the context of the charge of tone from the army its worth thinking about the role of the Rosgvardia in Ukraine too.

This is being reported this morning:

Euromaiden Press @euromaidenpress
Russians deployed almost all Rosgvardia units stationed in Crimea and Donbas to temporarily occupied districts of Kherson, Zaporizhia, and Donetsk oblasts to suppress resistance in Kherson, Henichesk, Berdiansk, and part of Mariupol - General Staff

In parts of Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts, Russians announced introduction of ruble instead of UA hryvnia. They also plan a paid rally in support of Russia's invasion in Melitopol, paying 1400 rubles($14) for participation, Ukrainian Security Service says

In parts of Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts, Russians announced introduction of ruble instead of UA hryvnia. They also plan a paid rally in support of Russia's invasion in Melitopol, paying 1400 rubles($14) for participation, Ukrainian Security Service says

For me there arises two quick questions:

Who is in charge of the Rosgvardia atm, following all the stuff that happened on 17th?

Was there a falling out over how the occupation was being handled? The occupying forces have started to be a lot tougher with disappearances notably accelerating since around that key moment of 13th - 17th.

And if nearly all units are deployed to occupy already then it does explain why the army would now come out with the change of goals - they simply don't have enough men to occupy any more of Ukraine. We already know theyve been struggling to keep control in Kherson over the last few days. Thats definitely more reality hitting the fan.

Lots of questions. What happened.

And again this over arching point about 'who is in charge?'

RedToothBrush · 26/03/2022 08:47

@ChardonnaysPetDragon

What happened? Something did. Whether they decided to bunker up, flee the country, got bumped off, attempted a coup around the 13th - 17th that necessitated Putin's very hastily planned rally is the question we don't know the answer to. But something happened.

It looks like a good old fashioned purge, tbh.

Don't disagree.