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Ukraine-invasion-part-16

991 replies

PestorPeston · 22/03/2022 23:46

Warsaw Russian is letting out a lot of smoke - there has been no decision on who among them will be the next pontiff.

Biden is going there Friday

Is Boris Johnson the designated survivor?

Who the heck let me be in charge?

OP posts:
Thread gallery
18
Igotjelly · 25/03/2022 19:17

Sky news reporting that Macron is to speak to Putin in the coming hours.

MMBaranova · 25/03/2022 19:29

who consider themselves to be of Russian descent if nothing else and it feels to be somewhat denying their existence.

No it's not.

It is partly to do with building a national identity in Ukraine that Ukrainian is official, and there is also a lingering memory of former suppression of Ukrainian in the good old bad old days. I'd have gone for Russian and Tatar having a boosted status, but there are constitutional brakes on change (as we will find if there is a peace with any sort of sell out).

My mother and her family are Russian speakers from Dnipro and around. She speaks good Ukrainian too (the other relatives are all over the place so far as I can tell). Is she Russian? Like Joe Biden is Irish, or perhaps less so. Probably more so than Boris Johnson is Turkish or Lithuanian Jewish (two of his ancestries). It is complex and because you speak a language doesn't mean you belong to the 'mother country'. Do her roots trace back to Mother Russia? No idea. Probably. Revolution, Civil War, World War destroys many traces. But then Joe Biden ;is; Irish and probably English and so on (I won't go further on Johnson, but we could do the same).

What has been happening in recent decades since the SU broke up has been the deepening development of a Ukrainian identity, just as happened in the USA, New Zealand and so on. There is some Ukrainian and Russian chauvinism of course (as there similarly is in different components of the UK). On the whole people rub along pretty well and get on with life. Hardly anyone was feeling that their existence was being denied as far as I can tell.

Younger people, say under about 30, especially seem to identify as Ukrainians and perhaps add a qualifier like Greek, Bulgarian or Tatar, some of the other minorities. In my WhatsApp conversations with relatives this week, which have tended to be in English because my Russian and Ukrainian are patchy (I blame this on Spanish being my dad's first language but it is a feeble excuse), the message I have had from all of them is essentially "things are grim but we will win". They are not talking about Putin's forces.

As an aside, the status of 'Ukrainians' on Russia is interesting. No recognition, schools, media or so on. 2 million? Hard to say. Russian is often their first language. A number of high level business and military people have names that probably show Ukrainian origin, but they seem Russified.

RedToothBrush · 25/03/2022 19:35

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
… in itself interesting that this change in strategy is publicly announced by Russian generals in briefing with maps, at precisely the moment US President is near Ukraine’s border, after NATO/US/EU show of unity… #Newsnight

RedToothBrush · 25/03/2022 19:39

Faisal islam @faisalislam
Meanwhile UK defence briefing that Ukrainian’s retaking towns near Kyiv, and Pentagon that Russia is no longer in full control of Kherson, the first town it occupied, after fight back from Ukrainian army… #Newsnight

Russia no longer in full control of Kherson.

I need to do some catching up....

DuncinToffee · 25/03/2022 19:44

Polina Ivanova
Russia's military held a big briefing this afternoon, announcing the war was entering a 'second phase'

Here's a summary of how Russia, at this point in the war, is depicting what it set out to do, why, and where we're at. (relaying their words, pls don't shoot msnger)

Firstly, the generals said Russia had always intended only to 'liberate' the Donbas, that was what it set out to do. It had two options: fight a war in the east, but allow Kyiv to replenish its forces, or start off by knocking out Ukrainian military capacities across the country.

Over a month of war, Russia has knocked out most of Ukraine's military capacities, the generals claimed, so can now move on to next phase, which will only be focused on the east, which could involve heavy bombardment.

Russia had never intended to capture Kyiv, Kharkiv and other cities, the generals said - these are not setbacks in other words, it's all part of the plan. And the plan was to distract Ukrainian forces while Russia/ Donetsk/ Luhansk made territorial gains in the east.

Numerous statements made about not targeting civilian infrastructure, avoiding civilian casualties.

Defence ministry briefing also shared a new official figure for the number of Russian soldiers killed, the second statement by Russian side during the course of this war. Said 1,351 were killed - figure is far below Ukrainian and international estimates.

Here's the full english text of the briefing per military's translation just now eng.mil.ru/en/special_operation/news/more.htm?id=12414735@egNews

RedToothBrush · 25/03/2022 19:46

Dan Lamothe @danlamothe
A background briefing with a senior U.S. defense official about the war in Ukraine concluded a bit ago.

A few major takeaways:

Lots of attention on Russia’s announcement today that they are prioritizing the Donbas region. The Pentagon saw that coming, flagging the likelihood for reporters in a background briefing Wednesday.

The senior defense official said Friday that it is “difficult to say” if Russia’s new emphasis on the Donbas represents a change in strategy. But he notes they are digging defensive positions outside Kyiv, rather than attempting to continue their advance.

Fierce fighting in several parts of Ukraine continues, Mariupol in particular. Several Ukrainian offensives against Russia also have some effect.

For the first time in weeks, the Pentagon assessed today that Kherson, a port city in southern Ukraine, is no longer under full Russian control.

"It doesn't appear to be as solidly in Russian control as it was before,” the senior defense official said. “Ukrainians are trying to take Kherson back and we would argue that Kherson is actually contested territory again."

Ukrainian forces also have pushed back Russian forces to some degree outside the northern Chernihiv, making “incremental” progress, the senior defense official said.

Other Ukrainian offensives are underway in the Kyiv suburbs. Makariv, west of Kyiv, is contested, Pentagon says.

As of Friday, Russia has now launched more than 1,250 missiles at Ukraine since invading Feb. 24.

Senior defense official says that Russia has experienced malfunctions with some of their cruise missiles, in particular.

Pentagon now assesses that Russia has 85 to 90 percent of its preassembled combat power. While that’s a nebulous number, it represents continued losses.

Pentagon assessment had been "less than 90" percent before.

For first time, Pentagon says today specifically that sees signs that Russia is moving some of its troops from the Republic of Georgia to fight in Russia.

Senior defense official confirms the attack on a Russian ship in Berdyansk that was widely reported yesterday.

Says Pentagon assesses it was an LST (landing ship, tank).

The Pentagon still assesses that Ukrainian airspace is contested, though the Russians are flying about 300 sorties per day, drastically more than Ukraine.

RedToothBrush · 25/03/2022 19:54

Pierre Morcos @morcospierre
Pres Macron just announced that France, together with Turkey and Greece, is planning an "exceptional humanitarian operation" to evacuate civilians from #Mariupol. Paris has been in contact with Mariupol's mayor and the French President will discuss this issue with Putin "in the coming hours".

Source: his press conference after the European Council

RedToothBrush · 25/03/2022 19:57

Mariupol is home to a large number of ethnic greeks.

Turkey is largely neutral and could facilitate an exit by sea in theory.

France is still remaining friendlier to Moscow than many others.

This is a possible plan, but all hinges on Putin...

RedToothBrush · 25/03/2022 19:59

Israel Radar @israel_radar
Covert team of Israeli special forces is training Ukrainians to fight against Russia, @YediotAhronot reports; instructors include reserve officers, veterans of top commando unit Sayeret Matkal; training provided at secret site to avoid Russian surveillance.

Ukrainian forces increasingly armed with Israeli Tavor assault rifles, @YediotAhronot reports; no comment from Israeli manufacturer.

Suggestions that Israel is shifting its position.

RedToothBrush · 25/03/2022 20:14

Julia Davies @juliadavisnews
Russian State Television Descends Into Screaming Match Over Putin’s War Failures in Ukraine:

Military experts on Russian state TV predict that Russia's war against Ukraine will go on for 40 more years.

www.thedailybeast.com/russian-state-television-descends-into-screaming-match-over-vladimir-putins-war-failures-in-ukraine

To make matters worse, Ukrainians forcefully deported to Russia might end up in places like the Russian island of Sakhalin in the Pacific, with freezing cold temperatures and stark landscapes. After discussing news reports about ongoing relocations, Evgeny Popov helpfully pointed out: “But in Sakhalin, the salaries are the highest in the country!”

And

State Duma Deputy Gen. Vladimir Shamanov—who is the former commander of the Russian Airborne Troops—accused the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky of being a “war criminal” for not surrendering to Russia. Shamanov argued: “He has the right to say, “Stop this war,” lay down the arms and save all the people.”

And

The resistance from the Ukrainian side is neither stopping nor weakening.” Tretyakov pointed out that despite the Russian media’s attempted depictions of Zelensky as a drug addict, he is being perceived by the West as a leader of a country that has been attacked. He also questioned the wisdom of “liberating” Ukrainians who don’t seem to want to be “liberated” and vehemently hate seeing the Russian troops on their territory. Tretyakov noted the unwavering determination of Western leaders to “squeeze” the Russian economy by imposing punishing sanctions.

And

On Thursday, military expert Igor Korotchenko called for any protests to be stopped by military force and any vocal opponents of the Russian armed forces to be “interned.”

And

Korotchenko surmised, “It’s obvious that the process of denazification of Ukraine will take the minimum of 15-20 years.” He predicted that the Russian troops would have to remain on Ukrainian territory, with the Russian military in charge of the entire country for the foreseeable future: “Whether this will take 15, 20 years or more, time will tell.”

General Shamanov was even more pessimistic, as he grimly anticipated that it would take the “re-education” of at least two generations of Ukrainians before they would welcome or tolerate Russia’s dominance. He also noted that Russia’s one-million-man armed forces aren’t enough to meet such a challenge, calling for massive increases to the country’s military might. Shamalov concluded: “Today, it can be clearly predicted that we will have to remain in Ukraine for 30-40 years.”

RedToothBrush · 25/03/2022 20:19

The Telegraph @telegraph
The Pentagon says up to 60 per cent of the missiles used to attack Ukraine either did not launch properly or did not explode as expected

bluetongue · 25/03/2022 20:22

@RedToothBrush

Pierre Morcos *@morcospierre* Pres Macron just announced that France, together with Turkey and Greece, is planning an "exceptional humanitarian operation" to evacuate civilians from #Mariupol. Paris has been in contact with Mariupol's mayor and the French President will discuss this issue with Putin "in the coming hours".

Source: his press conference after the European Council

Everything crossed this can happen and is successful and that Russia don’t attack those entering the city to evacuate civilians. Those poor people trapped there Sad
RedToothBrush · 25/03/2022 20:28

bluetongue it will 100% be Turkey who goes in, if its agreed.

If the Russians hit the Turkish, the gloves will come off. So far, the turks haven't gone anywhere near as far as they could.

They have refused a request from the us under nato for some defense system which the us said they would replace with state of the art equipment. They still have airspace open to russians and they haven't imposed sanctions.

They have supplied drones to Ukraine and they have closed the straits to military ships (but that includes western ones too). But that's about it.

That precisely why the French have the Turks on board...

PaperTyger · 25/03/2022 20:32

I didn't realise how lax turkey has been Confused

Bizarre?

RedToothBrush · 25/03/2022 20:33

Not really.

Wheat and Syria.

Remember how many million refugees Turkey is already host to.

PaperTyger · 25/03/2022 20:46

Yes but why can't they honour NATO's request and why allow Putin's planes over?

RedToothBrush · 25/03/2022 21:13

@PaperTyger

Yes but why can't they honour NATO's request and why allow Putin's planes over?
Cos they are a sovereign nation who doesn't have to do what NATO tells it, because its a free member of NATO not a servant of NATO or America!

Also Erdoğan is hardly the model of Western liberal democracy. What will having a military coup and all that.

PaperTyger · 25/03/2022 21:17

Well maybe that will give leverage with Putin.

It's very disappointing though.

Very disappointing

RedToothBrush · 25/03/2022 21:25

Also note Greece and Turkey are working together on this.

They aren't exactly best buds...

PaperTyger · 25/03/2022 21:28

Olga misik

Apologies if she's already been mentioned.
Once these absolutely wicked old cronies croak it the future is bright.

Amazing ❤️

RedToothBrush · 25/03/2022 22:04

twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1507458502343770115
Sky News @SkyNews
“Only chance and a prayer will get them through this.”

Special correspondent @AlexCrawfordSky reports from Chernihiv in Ukraine which is now encircled by Russian troops, as the last escape route out of the city is shelled.

Video in orginal tweet.

wonderfullife123 · 25/03/2022 22:23

More speculation on Shoigu

BREAKING: ⚡️ Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu had a heart attack. Therefore, he has not appeared at official events since mid-March,” writes Anton Gerashchenko, adviser to the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. t.co/UGl9EyaPGW

twitter.com/AlexandruC4/status/1507473089952718851?t=eKmn6QEt1-6WxpURK1utDg&s=09

HomecomingKween · 25/03/2022 22:26

'heart attack'

RedToothBrush · 25/03/2022 22:26

Ronald Liive @ronaldliive
Today 73 years ago the #Soviet occupation forcibly deported more than 20 000 people from #Estonia to #Siberia. In total they deported more than 90 000 people from the three Baltic states, including many children and the elderly. Prime example of a crime against humanity

Mass deportations were used by Soviets many times over the years. The biggest waves took place in June of 1941 and March 1949. So who were targeted? Mainly women, children and elderly. Why? According to the occupiers they were “anti-Soviet elements”

There were no trials that had legally found out that someone was an “anti-Soviet element”. They just went to peoples homes and forcibly shoved them onto trucks and later threw them into railroad cattle cars! 1949 deportation included roughly only 10% of working age men!

The Soviets didn’t look the other way when it came to disabled people, pregnant women, newborns and children separated from their parents. The youngest of them was just one day old Virve Eliste who was deporter from Hiiumaa island and died a year later

Some deportations were based on ethnicity and religion. During the 1941 deportation the main target was the Estonian elite - CINC Johan Laidoner, president Konstantin Päts and the wider political and military leadership (10 ministers out of 11, 68 MP’s out of 120)

Many of the people deported perished and most never returned back home. Outside the bigger waves Soviets continually deported people on smaller scale from 1940-1956

My grandfather Valter Liive belonged to the Omakaitse (militia “home guard” organisation), deserted the Soviet army etc. due all of his actions he was sentenced to 18 years in forced labor. He was also deported to Siberia. I never met my grandfather ("thanks" Soviets)

One of the so-called “anti-Soviet elements” was a 6 month old Kristi. She lived in Siberia for 10 years and managed to return to Estonia. This is the story of our PM @kajakallas 's mother. You can read about her family story here:
kajakallas.ee/postitus/kommunismiohvrite-malestuseks/

“Aegumatu” is a documentary which emphasises there are crimes that do not expire. It starts with a scene of MEP Tunne Kelam telling the story that many people in Europe don’t know nothing about the deportations.

"In the Crosswind" is a movie that’s based on a story of a 27-year old mother that was deported to Siberia. It’s available online and with English subtitles

So this gives you a bit of insight why Estonians, Latvians and Lithuanians know all too well what Ukrainians are feeling at the moment and why aren't we keeping quiet nor calling #ukraine to surrender

So bundits before you utter the words that @NATO should of never had expanded eastwards now hopefully some of you realise why #Estonia, #Latvia and #Lithuania wanted to join NATO as soon as possible

Notewhat was being talked about on Russia tv that was mentioned upthread and reported in the Daily Beast
www.thedailybeast.com/russian-state-television-descends-into-screaming-match-over-vladimir-putins-war-failures-in-ukraine?via=twitter_page

To make matters worse, Ukrainians forcefully deported to Russia might end up in places like the Russian island of Sakhalin in the Pacific, with freezing cold temperatures and stark landscapes. After discussing news reports about ongoing relocations, Evgeny Popov helpfully pointed out: “But in Sakhalin, the salaries are the highest in the country!”

My point being that deportations are being talked about in Russia openly.

This follows this in December:
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59808624
Russian court orders oldest civil rights group Memorial to shut

Memorial worked to recover the memory of the millions of innocent people executed, imprisoned or persecuted in the Soviet era.

...in court, the prosecutor labelled Memorial a "public threat", accusing the group of being in the pay of the West to focus attention on Soviet crimes instead of highlighting a "glorious past".

and

"Why should we, descendants of the victors, be ashamed and repent, rather than take pride in our glorious past? Memorial is probably paid by someone for that," the prosecutor claimed in court.

and

Just this October, when a crowd gathered at Memorial's Moscow headquarters to watch Mr Jones, a film about the Stalin-era famine that killed millions in Ukraine, a nationalist mob burst in and rushed on stage calling the audience "fascists" and yelling: "Hands off our history".

Its a frightening background story arc thats been developing for some time. Clearly Russian people are fully aware of modern day deportations...

shreddednips · 25/03/2022 22:42

@HomecomingKween

'heart attack'
The excitement of everything going so swimmingly to plan probably did for him.