Ukraine-invasion-part-16

[PestorPeston]

Warsaw Russian is letting out a lot of smoke - there has been no decision on who among them will be the next pontiff.

Biden is going there Friday

Is Boris Johnson the designated survivor?

Who the heck let me be in charge?

www.zawya.com/en/special-coverage/russia-ukraine-crisis/india-and-china-for-immediate-ceasefire-in-ukraine-indian-foreign-minister-ca4dvz5i

Also reported here (UAE based newspaper)

That's great news, if true, that there's calls for a ceasefire from India and China, supposed Russian allies, hopefully will give Putin pause for thought.

Really pleased to see that re India and China

It is wonderful to realise how even in the midst of a massive and overpowering force one person’s spirit can make so much difference. You must be so proud of him. I hope he was ok after the war and had something left for himself.*

He was an amazing man! Unfortunately he died before his time when I was 4, due to never really recovering health wise. I do remember he always dressed very smart and the memory that stays with me was I was sitting on his lap and he was drinking tea out of a China cup and saucer and how his hands shook so badly and rattled the saucer.

It makes me feel so sad knowing millions of families will suffer for decades when this war is over both physically and mentally. Tragic and the sooner it ends the better. Let's hope India and China have some sway with that monster.

I wonder if those analysis of the Soviet conventional threat might have actually turned out to be over stated, as the Russian's armies current ability appears to have been.

From what I was told and have read the Russian stuff then was infinitely better made. It's clear the military have suffered from the extreme corruption under Putin (what a blight the man is). Older posters may know better but I think they really were much solider as an army than they seem to be now.

I really recommend listening to the Rest is Politics podcast by Alistair Campbell and Rory Stewart. Rory in particular has some interesting insights regarding the current situation and from his time in Iraq.

@Ijsbear

I wonder if those analysis of the Soviet conventional threat might have actually turned out to be over stated, as the Russian's armies current ability appears to have been.

From what I was told and have read the Russian stuff then was infinitely better made. It's clear the military have suffered from the extreme corruption under Putin (what a blight the man is). Older posters may know better but I think they really were much solider as an army than they seem to be now.

Odd. I can clearly recall the antique nature of USSR tech being a standing joke in the 1980s. Although it's relative immunity to EMP was touted by some as being "clever" rather than 20 years behind.

(Hence the amusing section in the "Not! 1982" book I mentioned a few threads back).

Things didn't slow down in 1991. Russian simply doesn't have the high tech infrastructure to design and make the silicon needed to power modern computing.

But that's all moot. If your military aren't regularly checking things like tyres, consumable and renewable components it doesn't really matter how up to date it is.

I wonder what the Ukrainians will do with that captured tank ? Might be hard to use in battle. Maybe booby trap it and let the Russians try to recover it ?

@EsmaCannonball

Russia has cancelled all teaching of political science, sociology and cultural studies in its universities.

Have you got a link/source for this? I just looked but couldn't find anything - not doubting you but I wanted to pass it on to someone and I know they'll want to know where I got it. (Not sure 'mumsnet' qualifies as an answer here!) Thank you.

@Ijsbear

I come from a different direction but it makes me weep to see Mariupol's people's suffering.

@TiddyTidTwo

I'm sorry for my earlier posts. I try to keep a cool head. Being ex military it's hard to watch genocide

++++

It really breaks my heart to see maternity hospitals and theatres sheltering children bombed when you look at the insanity of Putin's rational. Prior to the invasion I genuinely saw Putin as a ruthless but shrewd operator but none of this makes any sense at all.

1. He invaded Ukraine to have a neighbour more aligned and more friendly to Russia? Well invading your neighbour is not ever going to make them more friendly to you.

2. he expected a quick blitzkreig operation in which Ukraine was be defeated in a matter of weeks. But instead the Ukrainians with support of NATO weapons (which were supplied before the invasion!) decided to defend their homeland. Was Putin so badly informed that he genuinely though the Ukrainians or for that matter any country would just roll over especially as they had been equipped with NATO anti tank and SAM missiles?

3. he invaded Ukraine to denazify it / de nationalise it. There was absolutely categorically no clandestine Nazi regime secretly being run by Zelensky (who after all is Jewish!!) and despite it being open knowledge that the Azov group only got 2% of the popular vote (and declining).
   If anything invading a country makes them more patriotic and nationalistic in their defence of their country. And arming Azov group makes them more dangerous. By invading Ukraine Putin may end up actually creating the problem he feared when it didn't actually exist to start with.

4. Putin didn't want Ukraine to join NATO or the E.U. There was little prospect of Ukraine joining NATO anytime soon especially whilst there was a conflict in Donbas.
   But seeing that being a member of NATO would have protected Ukraine it makes them more likely to want to join not less.

Lastly @TiddyTidTwo - there really is no need to apologise for your earlier posts the insanity of the whole situation makes the real suffering so unnecessary and so so much worse.

@ DGRossetti Happy to bow to your knowledge!

About the EMP-resistance stuff, my companion who grew up in the former GDR has just unearthed at the bottom of his cellar 5,000 beautifully made military transistors which are works of art, he says :)

@jgw1

I wonder if those analysis of the Soviet conventional threat might have actually turned out to be over stated, as the Russian's armies current ability appears to have been.

Perhaps but I would not have liked to “press to test”…certainly in the early 80’s many of the NATO air forces in Europe were equipped with aircraft that were getting old in teeth (F-5s, etc) and specifically on the UK side due to budgetary constraints there was a lack of basic features such hardened facilities/shelters at key airfields..

@heldinadream twitter.com/irisovaolga/status/1507252961122078756?s=21

@MagicFox thank you!

Thanks 1day

You are spot on re Putin, he's kicking his own arse. He surely is not a stupid man but obviously has an enormous belief in himself. Not sure his cronies are telling him everything?. His most trusted general hasn't been seen for 2 weeks!

After the Salisbury poisoning I'll never forget Teresa Mays face when she met him afterwards. Wonder how she would've handled this?

Tim Franks @BBCTimFranks

BREAKING: confirmation from a Mariupol official of what would be the single worst loss of life in the Ukraine war so far -- about 300 dead in the Russian missile strike on the theatre in Mariupol.
....Petr Andryuschenko, advisor to deputy mayor of Mariupol, in interview with Newshour, @bbcworldservice
He said nearly 600 people were inside the theatre before the attack. 300 Three hundred were in a shelter under the theatre.....
...The authorities had not been able to start the rescue operation because there was street fighting near the theatre, continuing Russian shelling.

He also confirmed there is fighting in the middle of the city, but insisted that the Russians did not have full control.

This has scared me, from an academic who writes on Russian propaganda. This whole thing is making me feel oddly like the world isn't real and too real at the same time: twitter.com/irgarner/status/1507341830916030465?s=21&t=IscB6FT_2KEjQY0Pd-4G1Q

Good article on relations between Russia and China: thediplomat.com/2022/03/no-limits-understanding-chinas-engagement-with-russia-on-ukraine/

[quote MagicFox]
This has scared me, from an academic who writes on Russian propaganda. This whole thing is making me feel oddly like the world isn't real and too real at the same time: twitter.com/irgarner/status/1507341830916030465?s=21&t=IscB6FT_2KEjQY0Pd-4G1Q[/quote]
Magic, sometimes it is best just to stay off Twitter I think, especially if you are feeling anxious. It is full of people scaring the shit out of each other whether intentionally or not. I am not saying what he has Tweeted about the narrative Russian propoganda is currently offering isn't true, but no-one know how this is going to play out or whether it is all going to escalate madly. Bear in mind that calm tweets about the war don't really garner attention or followers.

Need to remember too that Russian propaganda, as with ours, is for internal consumption. Lots of this is Putin trying to justify to his population what’s going on in Ukraine. Of course they will paint the US and NATO as the aggressors. This is where careful management from our end to not live up to that reputation is vital.

Thanks both, very true

@Igotjelly

Need to remember too that Russian propaganda, as with ours, is for internal consumption. Lots of this is Putin trying to justify to his population what’s going on in Ukraine. Of course they will paint the US and NATO as the aggressors. This is where careful management from our end to not live up to that reputation is vital.

Yes, I agree. The numbers of Russian casualties must be reaching a critical point where the public is becoming alarmed, you can't conceal that number of deaths forever. My guess is that this type of propaganda is designed to make the level of loss more 'acceptable' if the public believe their loved ones are fighting for the very existence of Russia. Same with the sanctions. I think people will tolerate hardship more willingly if they believe their very lives are at stake. It paints Putin as a saviour of the Russian people so that they don't draw the (correct) conclusion that he's throwing ordinary people under the bus to satisfy his imperialistic aims.

I think it's worth remembering that anything the Kremlin or Russian press isn't solely designed to send a message to the west- it's for domestic consumption. Fear is an effective way to keep the public compliant when they might otherwise object.

@TiddyTidTwo

I think that all dictatorships contain the seeds of their own destruction.

For the advisors surrounding a dictator it is not advisable in terms of career progression or staying alive to express views contradictory to those of the dictator. So he becomes more and more surrounded by yes men and more convinced of his own superiority. That is until a decision (like invading Ukraine) goes badly wrong).

It is for this very reason that historically Kings had Court Jesters because they were the only ones who could either make fun of the King or say things the King disagreed with. The advantage being the Jester's views could always be dismissed as those of a fool.

So maybe all Putin really needed was a Court Jester - maybe there is an ideal career opening for Boris Johnson in a jester outfit? 😀

Also mindful (after reading his bio) that he is a specialist in linguistics and Russian war propaganda. So not a military strategist or diplomat - both highly skilled and I would imagine have a very different take on propaganda which, by it’s nature is sensationalist.

@Igotjelly

Also mindful (after reading his bio) that he is a specialist in linguistics and Russian war propaganda. So not a military strategist or diplomat - both highly skilled and I would imagine have a very different take on propaganda which, by it’s nature is sensationalist.

I know, I was hoping he'd sift through and expose it because of that but as I read it I realised he was taking it at face value, effectively arguing that it's even worse than it sounds and saying he's scared - I was

On the flip side if you immerse yourself entirely into Russian propaganda, as I imagine he has to for his job, you probably start struggling to see the wood for the trees a little. It surely has to impact your thought patterns.