Ukraine-invasion-part-15

[Ijsbear]

Next part.

Essentially medicines are drying up and local pharmacies are no longer able to fulfil all their orders. We bought in a neighbouring country and imported. I think the cities are better stocked but where there's fighting on the outskirts there's hardly any supplies is how it sounds to me. They say the red cross is both bureaucratic and slow on the ground but I guess they are firefighting in the hotspot areas.

^The Kyiv Independent
@KyivIndependent
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3m
⚡️Ukraine: Russia reaches agreement on hiring Libyan mercenaries.

According to Ukraine's Armed Forces, Russia has reached an agreement with Libya’s military commander Khalifa Haftar during his visit to Moscow to recruit Libyan mercenaries to fight in Ukraine.^

Thanks for the thread

@Ijsbear I don't think there is much Mariupol left to have. The reports are that all buildings are damaged. Presumably it will be like Syria and buses will go in to take the people off to filtration camps.

From the ISW:

Key Takeaways

The Ukrainian General Staff reported for the first time that the Kremlin is preparing its population for a “long war” in Ukraine and implementing increasingly draconian mobilization measures, including deploying youth military organization members aged 17-18.
Ukrainian forces reportedly killed three Russian regimental commanders in the last 24 hours.
Russia’s Wagner Group will likely facilitate the deployment of Libyan fighters to Ukraine.
Russian forces are digging in to positions around Kyiv, including the first reports of the war of Russian forces deploying minefields.
Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault on Izyum, southeast of Kharkiv, and inflicted heavy casualties.
Russian forces continued their slow advance into Mariupol but did not achieve any major territorial gains.
Ukrainian forces launched further localized counterattacks around Mykolayiv.

@PaperTyger

Tuba

Why would Putin want to trigger article 5 though.

Poland goes in with peace keeping troops, Putin may have to fight them why would he deliberately attack polish soil

Well he has said any country that interfered would be punished. He may not use Nukes but can't see him not escalating if that's the case. Would say Poland have an agreement aswell with Nato that it can't trigger article 5 ifnits troops inside Ukraine are attacked or killed?

This is pure emotion but the thought of those people under the bombed theatre is just horrifying.

Miss conduct When I mooted that way back I was thinking" generally" and whether that would weaken the USA money 💸 wise and military..eg people talk of Putin being weakened by this war but what of everyone on the other side?

www.ft.com/content/af7996a9-8c16-4421-a5b3-390315d3c7dc
‘Hell on earth’: survivors recount Mariupol’s annihilation under Russian bombs | Free to read
Residents who escaped from besieged Ukrainian port depict harrowing conditions for civilians

This is free to read but harrowing.

Anyone who wants to flee is now getting their phone vetted. Any anti Russian message and they are at risk of disappearing now.

In the context of surrendering many wont feel able to.

What the feck is Putin up to importing all these radicalised mercenaries?
Are they going to set up home in the newly flattened Ukraine? Will they wander into Russia? Does he want to drive them westwards towards the EU?

I'm really thinking he is on a mad do or die mission. I used to believe he invaded Ukraine because he thought it was worth it.

Well he has said any country that interfered would be punished. He may not use Nukes but can't see him not escalating if that's the case. Would say Poland have an agreement aswell with Nato that it can't trigger article 5 ifnits troops inside Ukraine are attacked or killed?

Sorry but I have to use the highly appropriate / inappropriate joke here.

Him and whose army? The Russian, the Syrian, the Chechen, the Libyan, the Belarusian....

Sorry.

Moving along swiftly...

The focus on Mariupol means that we aren't hearing about how bad its getting in some other places too.

Chernihiv is beginning to sound utterly desperate too.

The EU DOES have a military peacekeeping force (which the UK was part of until Brexit).

I have a goddam photo i took myself of a number of soliders from it on my wall. They exist already.

Its for peacekeeping missions.

Hypothetically, if there was a joint European army and the Ukraine were already an EU member would that be a deterrent for Putin or would he press on with his ideology anyway.

Where would NATO stand on that?

Kyiv is also seeing a lot of explosions.

Tuba I think it's Poland choice whether to trigger it or not.

.

@PaperTyger

Miss conduct When I mooted that way back I was thinking" generally" and whether that would weaken the USA money 💸 wise and military..eg people talk of Putin being weakened by this war but what of everyone on the other side?

I see. I appreciate the concern, but it's really not that significant in terms of the overall US economy. For perspective, the annual defense department budget is somewhere near $800 billion and the economy is growing and generating good tax receipts. The total US DGP is roughly $21 trillion.

@PestorPeston

What the feck is Putin up to importing all these radicalised mercenaries? Are they going to set up home in the newly flattened Ukraine? Will they wander into Russia? Does he want to drive them westwards towards the EU?

I'm really thinking he is on a mad do or die mission. I used to believe he invaded Ukraine because he thought it was worth it.

Cos he's running out of young dispensible Russians.

See message above about calling up 17 year olds.

He's using foreigners because he's afraid of Russian mothers.

He wants to keep higher social class ethnic slavs off the draft.

If he uses mercenaries he isn't risking the civil unrest in the same way. Or so the theory probably is.

If he burns though all these foreigners, then he's got to start calling up people from social groups which perhaps might challenge him.

You can only use the lowest of the low for cannon fodder. After that it becomes more difficult to retain support for your military campaign.

These low-grade foreign troops and mercenaries being hired by Russia will most likely be handed the dirty work of suppressing civilians and guarding POWs, leaving the Russians for the most important fighting. Regardless, it's infuriating that Putin can buy in all these troops from nasty-fucker regimes, while any official boots-on-the-ground to help Ukraine would be accused of poking the bear. In fact, it's all-round infuriating that Russia is violating all the rules of law and war while simultaneously acting like any ungentlemanly behaviour from Ukraine will force them into starting World War Three.

@StormzyinaTCup

The EU DOES have a military peacekeeping force (which the UK was part of until Brexit).

I have a goddam photo i took myself of a number of soliders from it on my wall. They exist already.

Its for peacekeeping missions.

Hypothetically, if there was a joint European army and the Ukraine were already an EU member would that be a deterrent for Putin or would he press on with his ideology anyway.

Where would NATO stand on that?

But isn't that effectively what is being proposed a peacekeeping force not a force to enter Ukraine now.

Bosnia isn't in NATO or the EU.

Miss conduct thanks

I read somewhere age's ago looking at whose country had the biggest debt's Russia actually had little debt but USA a huge amount.
Also that China holds a good portion of that debt.

@EsmaCannonball

These low-grade foreign troops and mercenaries being hired by Russia will most likely be handed the dirty work of suppressing civilians and guarding POWs, leaving the Russians for the most important fighting. Regardless, it's infuriating that Putin can buy in all these troops from nasty-fucker regimes, while any official boots-on-the-ground to help Ukraine would be accused of poking the bear. In fact, it's all-round infuriating that Russia is violating all the rules of law and war while simultaneously acting like any ungentlemanly behaviour from Ukraine will force them into starting World War Three.

Id argue the dispensible mercenaries and foreigners are there for the front lines whilst the Russians have the easy shift occupying actually.

He doesn't want dead Russians.

Dead Syrians don't need paying.

....and the economy is growing and generating good tax receipts. The total US DGP is roughly $21 trillion.

yeah although why they aren't putting more towards paying off their extraordinary national debt is inexplicable.

If you are bringing in mercenaries, it indicates your own army is in trouble. Ditto the hellish conditions in Mauripol; it's a very brutal cover tactic for weaknesses piling up elsewhere.

Red he is going to being calling in ISIS soon.

The Chinese are using CIPS to trade with Russia and are sorting buying oil in yuan , expect most of Asia to follow China. In due time, the dollar, currently the anchor currency for roughly two-thirds of world GDP, could lose nearly half its weight.

Maybe Putin never wanted Ukraine, it had become too western leaning. It had become a traitor and deserved to die. This war would be a very effective way to destabilise the decadent west.

@RedToothBrush Doubt the CSDP and random secondments counts as an Army?

Sure it could be built upon but there simply isn't the time scales available.

UK rejoining any EU force is fanciful, don't you realise that the UK 's courageous fight for Brexit is on par with what the Ukrainians are now fighting for.....