Ukraine-invasion-part-15

[Ijsbear]

Next part.

Flatten the Kremlin see how they like it up em.

Thats really how I feel , probably not a good idea though

@AgnesWestern

Does the latest development mean NATO is thinking of getting involved? Or just that the US is distancing itself from that possibility?

And I know what @MagicFox means about making ourselves vulnerable here in the UK.

I guess I’m a minority though, seems most people want NATO involvement now…I just hope and pray it doesn’t lead to a full scale world war.

Does the latest development mean NATO is thinking of getting involved? Or just that the US is distancing itself from that possibility?

Good question and I’ll be with you on the hoping side

Other posters sound more confident it won’t but it’s worrying

Not me again.

I think one assumes a level of general knowledge on there threads without having to labour over each point all the time.

Of course many other countries have given equipment and so on

Bloke on lbc radio at the refugee camp in Poland says if people wants to send things they desperately need medical supplies and combat gear, any sort of combat gear, old backpacks, if you were in ??? Club at school and have uniform from that in the attic, any sort of old combat gear at all.

FWIW in the context of some of the above comments a quick check look at one of those “spotter” sites shows that in addition to US Air Force aircraft there have been RAF, French Air Force and Netherlands Air Force aircraft active in the skies over Poland and Romania in the last few hours.

Well the US has FORTE11 up again. A 220 million$ surveillance drone, they are watching and no doubt passing information on.
www.flightradar24.com/FORTE11/2b33f3b4

It not only boots that count.

For those saying NATO will have to get involved and assuming Putin remains in power (which most pundits predict) what if he uses a small nuke on a strictly Ukrainian military target. What then? We are in escalation mode with him ensconced inside his nuclear bunker with a strategy of the first strike. The 'west' has never fought a war with a nuclear-armed nation and for good reason. The point of nuclear weapons is they are your MAD get out of jail card which is why every dictator and their friends want them. His use of hypersonic weapons is a direct threat and reminder that he has missile systems that can carry nuclear warheads that will defeat your anti-missile systems. Putin's finished as a global player forever it's death or '(in)glory' for him now. The hope has to be he has done enough damage to smashed insurgent Ukraine and will retreat to his borders to see his time out -which if medical rumours are to be believed will be short.

Putin considers the UK a 'floating vassal' of the US*

In his dreams. The US needed the UK military support In Afghanistan, for example, as we are tactically superior at urban warfare, despite smaller numbers. Just as is happening in Ukraine now.

I would be nervous if the US stepped in. I think Europe has to take another meaningful step forward in Ukraine's defence at least stepping up the nature of our military supplies. Do I feel safe here in the UK? For the most part in the here and now yes. But in 5 years after a ceasefire? No. Putin will be older, angrier, more paranoid and wanting to put 'his affairs' in order. Ensure his legacy.

I still can't see other countries willingly getting involved without the permission of Nato. If Poland goes in and Putin responds with a missile into Poland then article 5 is triggered.

With Russians taking defense positions and Ukraine starting to counter attack, mixed with Russias missile stocks depleting along with possible progress with peace talks. Seems like a silly time to escalate the conflict. Nato or any country going in will absolutely not help those Ukrainians in mariopol right now. if anything the Russians would probably make things worse for them.

No country serious about peace negotiations would be saying things like, 'You've got a few hours to surrender Mariupol.' The peace talks are just bullshit while they are transporting soldiers from Siberia and casting around for some other dodgy regime to give them weapons.

@Alexandra2001

As a PP has pointed out, Russia can and will have to be contained. But Ukraine will continue to live in the shadow of an existential threat

Russia wont be, we do not have the will to do that.
Ukraine is finished, Russia will keep going until there is nothing left and Ukraine will vanish of the face of the earth.

Zelenskyy is spot on, the Russian tactic is to kill & remove anyone left and destroy the country.

He isn't interested in peace or talks other than for PR.

The worlds mightiest military alliance has proven to be utterly useless, a paper tiger & Putin, Xi etc etc will realise they can do as they wish.

I don’t see what the point of invading a country just to obliterate all infrastructure is. Is it because plan a was the short, sharp war to occupy a mainly intact country and that plan b is the scorched earth option?

It’s just all so senseless and horrific. I guess it’s not that different to what happened in ww11 and many wars since, it’s just that now we see it all play out in real time in the Internet age.

Putin seems to be doing remarkably well at claiming a large portion of the Black Sea coast. Or thereabouts (Sea of Azov included).

The EU DOES have a military peacekeeping force (which the UK was part of until Brexit).

I have a goddam photo i took myself of a number of soliders from it on my wall. They exist already.

I'm guessing we'd be looking at an upscaling of that, probably with the UK back on board. It wound me up during the referendum campaign that people were oblivious to it already existing and instead chose to go on about who led it etc etc. If NATO can manage international military cooperation, i never understood why a similar EU one ever scared people as much as it did.

It is not remotely new or unprecedented. I've mentioned it several times on these threads before.

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Althea
Current name: Operation Althea. Formerly EUFOR.
Originally NATO lead after Dayton Agreement then EU lead but not exclusively EU countries.

Currently Albania, Austria, Bulgaria, Chile, Czech Republic, France, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Poland, Portugal, North Macedonia, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Switzerland and Turkey.

Now whether a similar arrangement would work or whether Russia would think it laughable is another matter. I think the UK's involvement would be necessary tbh to be taken seriously.

It is the closest template I can think of and does sound not dissimilar to noises being made by Ukraine and West.

@Onceuponatimeinalandfaraway

Bloke on lbc radio at the refugee camp in Poland says if people wants to send things they desperately need medical supplies and combat gear, any sort of combat gear, old backpacks, if you were in ??? Club at school and have uniform from that in the attic, any sort of old combat gear at all.

Yes my poor contact in Odesa says they now need bullet proof vest in the Nikolaev region. Honestly I have no idea where all these billion pounds worth of arms and aid are. The first lot of medicines we sent included antibiotics, cream for trench foot. They need basics like torniquets as well. I don't know why these basics are not a plenty in the cities that are still in tact and have had largely safe refugee corridors out of Ukraine.

YeahThat Trump is not the person you'd want to take advice from, if he was right about Nordstream 2, a stopped clock is right twice a day! I'm sure there is a big list somewhere with all the reasons that he is not the full ticket.

‘I’d rather die here’: coffee, flowers and defiance on the streets of Kyiv
www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/20/id-rather-die-here-coffee-flowers-and-defiance-on-the-streets-of-kyiv

The Ukrainians are so brave.

The ultimatum about Mariupol is worrying. I haven't heard anything else about the theatre, are they still struggling to get everyone out due to shelling? I think about it every few hours and realise it's now a couple of days later and they still haven't been able to get everyone out .

I might be being ignorant but as a defence alliance wouldn't that be NATO troops fighting invading forces rather than invading themselves.

@MagicFox, you are right; in the first instance, NATO would defend against invasion. However, I was mulling about what 'defeat' for Putin would look like, if we were committed to that. In the event of a hot war with the West (aka existential threat), would we leave him in charge if we beat him back? Would we arrange a change in Government or even occupying army camps, as happened in Iraq, Afghanistan or Germany? I don't know. China would pitch a fit and it would truly be WW3.

Right now, even if Russia withdrew tomorrow, I would expect sanctions and soldiers of some kind to continue, to prevent a second reoccurrence. The bloody man is as irritating as a toenail infection and just as persistent.

Interesting with the Markopol surrender situation. Some media are describing it as an ultimatum for the city. While others like the bbc make it sound as if they are willing to let anyone out who effectively surrenders including civilians.

Mariopol*

Hills that's really worrying?

Maybe they have gone elsewhere but just not to your contact? I've been hoping these free cities are stocking up as much as possible before they are possibly encircled?

Tim White @TWMCltd
Reuters reporting #Russia has set a 05:00 deadline for #Ukraine forces to surrender in #Mariupol'

“Lay down your arms. A terrible humanitarian catastrophe has developed” said Col.General Mizintsev.
“All who lay down their arms are guaranteed safe passage out of Mariupol.”

Re the "deadline" - no way #Ukraine will surrender. They've seen what happens to Ukrainians who surrender before (search Ilovaisk).
And this is Mariupol where #Russia is desperate to annihilate Azov and all defenders of the city.

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Ilovaisk
After days of encirclement, Ukrainian commander Yuriy Bereza came to an agreement with Russian commanders in Ilovaisk to allow Ukrainian troops to withdraw from the city. This agreement was not honoured, and many soldiers died whilst trying to escape.

www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-49426724
Ukraine's deadliest day: The battle of Ilovaisk, August 2014

To save people the trouble of searching.

Tuba

Why would Putin want to trigger article 5 though.

Poland goes in with peace keeping troops, Putin may have to fight them why would he deliberately attack polish soil

There is always money for defence if the US sees what it perceives to be a real clear and present danger to its interests.

I agree. Funding is not going to be the limiting factor for American military assistance to Ukraine. The size of the logistical pipeline is now the limiting factor. The kit that's being sent now is coming out of military stocks that will have to be replaced but it'll be quite sometime before those costs are realized. There is ample political will to fund the process.

@EsmaCannonball

No country serious about peace negotiations would be saying things like, 'You've got a few hours to surrender Mariupol.' The peace talks are just bullshit while they are transporting soldiers from Siberia and casting around for some other dodgy regime to give them weapons.

Makes too much sense. Unless he wants Mariupol and then will settle for East of the Dnieper.