Ukraine-invasion-part-15

[Ijsbear]

Next part.

So this is a Ukrainian news report. I've included a translation below.

24tv.ua/putinu-nachhati-svoyih-soldat-duzhe-shkoda-tehniki-merezhu-zlili_n1915144

A publication on LiveJournal states that on March 21, Putin allegedly held a video conference with Nikolai Patrushev, Sergei Shoigu, Valery Gerasimov and Alexander Bortnikov.

During the discussion of the current situation at the front, the losses of Russian troops were allegedly discussed, and Gerasimov described them as "significant". Putin interrupted his henchman and asked: "What does it mean to be significant? The allowable losses of 30,000 and 50,000 people are nothing compared to the goals that will be achieved after the victory."

In addition, the new deadline for Putin's victory in the war was allegedly limited on May 7. It is until this date that he allegedly plans to force the Ukrainian authorities to sign agreements that can be presented on the domestic market as Ukraine's capitulation, and to hold a "triumphant victory parade."

During the meeting, Putin blamed Gerasimov for heavy weapons losses and suggested using military equipment more wisely. In fact, the enraged dictator directly ordered Gerasimov to ignore the loss of manpower, and above all to protect technology.

With regard to the mobilization of the population, Patrushev reportedly reported that preparations for the process have been completed and, if ordered, will be carried out promptly and as soon as possible.

This isn't remotely sourced, nor verified. This is what is circulating in Ukraine so will be shaping expectations there in terms of losses / timescales so is worth seeing. But have a huge bag of salt to accompany it. Obviously Russian soliders in Ukraine checking for updates on the war, perhaps won't want to be seeing this type of reporting...

Having said that, realistically a May 7th deadline for Russia is probably the absolute limit that the economics / logistics / equipment even without thinking about men. That sort of ballpark of a timeframe keeps coming back from various sources. Certainly we aren't getting much saying past mid-May is viable from any quarter.

Christ Paper wtf?

Maybe defensive NATO needs to be scrapped, what with that and Germany breastfeeding off that Russian gas pipeline. After all, chips are down now aren't they?

I believe there's an alliance in Europe that have their hands tied by NATO. Yes the US military is huge but tactically they are NOT the best. Quality rather than quantity, just like we are seeing in Ukraine v Russia

@MagicFox

Well, we're not post war anymore. I pray to God our children don't experience anything like those poor children in Ukraine are experiencing. I can't look away from their suffering, it's honestly all I can think about

Like the 13500 Afghan children who have starved to death since Jan. because the US and UK withdrew troops, let the Taliban takeover, sanctioned the Taliban causing economic collapse. If we now say we are going into Ukraine on humanitarian grounds the hypocrisy would literally kill me. It's bad enough Afghanistan is dropped by our press in when it really needs outside pressure/spotlight particularly for women

British people who went back there to look after/save their parents or disabled relatives no evacuation for them. Although of course some were killed trying to get out.

This is not whataboutery it really does upset me because the contrast is so stark it hurts.

Well reading that Red Putin is all out isn't he? Although I know it's not verified.

May 7th? That's months away. How much more to tolerate in the meantime??

Lyse Doucet doesn't think the peace talks were being taken seriously on BBC news tonight. Not surprising news but somewhat discouraging after hearing other sources being more optimistic.

Kidron and Segal : The New State of The World Atlas 1984 was my night time reading material, long before the internet arrived (I bought it in a bookshop - one with a door). For those who like maps and charts it was an eyeopener to the interdependencies that existed between states, particularly commodities, arms and labour. It highlighted the injustices and was one of the reasons I joined the military. It is not available online, so I cannot share some of the data from nearly 40 years ago but old patterns die hard.

The thing about dictatorships is they are great levers. A single hand-shake between two dictators instantly joins together a billion or more people. Democracies require approval. I can understand China's interest in Africa. It should be easy to do deals there.

freedomhouse.org/explore-the-map?type=fiw&year=2022

The danger with the West versus East narrative is that it fails to establish the issue.

I agree Bluebell hence my earlier post.

However UK troops couldn't sustain without the US there but we put a lot of work into post war Afghanistan and it's all been undone.

We must remember our mistakes and not repeat those mistakes.

Having said that, realistically a May 7th deadline for Russia is probably the absolute limit that the economics / logistics / equipment even without thinking about men. That sort of ballpark of a timeframe keeps coming back from various sources. Certainly we aren't getting much saying past mid-May is viable from any quarter.
7th of May is significant also because 8th (and 9th) of May is VE day, very widely celebrated in Russia, with massive military parades, fireworks and general muscle flexing.
Can't go there without securing a victory over neo-nazis.

Turley said: “It’s how powerful ruling elites make much of their money, and Congress has never seriously tried to crack down on it. The children and spouses of powerful leaders continue to receive windfall payments from companies and foreign interests, but we’ve never quite seen the likes of Hunter Biden’s enterprises. His contracts go beyond anything we’ve seen before.”

I am not buying this. It is a deflection. Hunter Biden is a minnow.

Energy cannot be created or destroyed. It can only be changed from one form to another : - Albert Einstein.

The smell of defeat may be getting a bit stronger in the Kremlin.

twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1506303038599925763

OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
U.S Intelligence Officials have stated that they have Indications that Ukrainian Forces have gained the Upper Hand on Multiple Fronts and are now Able and Willing to begin Offensives to take back Cities and Towns Occupied by Russian Forces, which has already reportedly begun.
12:13 PM · Mar 22, 2022·Twitter for iPhone

These are worth a listen if you haven't already heard them. The wonderful writer Andrey Kurkov recounting his experiences and that of his family and friends in Ukraine since the invasion. www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0015h6b

Targus that'd really interesting about dictators instantly joining two countries together with a handshake.

Re. hunter, unfortunately I don't think he is a minnow, When the very guardian picks up on such a story at such a time as this., that says something ( usually they repress or.omit news that doesn't fit with their narrative).
I really hope he does swim away and he doesn't become the whale that consumes Biden.

U.S Intelligence Officials have stated that they have Indications that Ukrainian Forces have gained the Upper Hand on Multiple Fronts and are now Able and Willing to begin Offensives to take back Cities and Towns Occupied by Russian Forces, which has already reportedly begun.

Of course the USSR not only stalled the German advance, but then reversed and pushed it back into Germany.

Miss USA, I feel happy that the tide is turning and this will be a huge moral boost to Ukraine.
However I feel simultaneously sick that this could be the prompt evil Putin needs to up the ante onto chemical/biological war fare.

Someone from a Nobel peace prize winning anti nuclear team was on sky this pm. describing in more eloquent detail how we are stopped from entering Ukraine purely due to the nuclear threat.
He said it's hard to win or use deplomacey with this threat.
He said he hoped all children would see how awful this is and welcome a future world without Nuclear weapons.
Personally I'd love to be able to get rid however, this Man didn't make any suggestions as to how we stop evil mad dictators/regimes from using/procuring them!

@PaperTyger

Miss USA, I feel happy that the tide is turning and this will be a huge moral boost to Ukraine. However I feel simultaneously sick that this could be the prompt evil Putin needs to up the ante onto chemical/biological war fare.

Someone from a Nobel peace prize winning anti nuclear team was on sky this pm. describing in more eloquent detail how we are stopped from entering Ukraine purely due to the nuclear threat.
He said it's hard to win or use deplomacey with this threat.
He said he hoped all children would see how awful this is and welcome a future world without Nuclear weapons.
Personally I'd love to be able to get rid however, this Man didn't make any suggestions as to how we stop evil mad dictators/regimes from using/procuring them!

Yeah I feel much the same, like there's no good outcome. Just worse and worse. I'm kind of longing for the days when we worried about covid

Ok, someone is going to post this sooner or later cos its going viral on twitter now so let just get this out the way.

Speculation about what is happening at that the Russian Embassy in Warsaw. There is a significant amount of smoke rising from the building. Its being suggested they are burning documents like they did in Kyiv a week before the invasion.

Some people are getting a little carried away in saying that its cos Russia is just about to attack Poland. However the more level headed speculation is that the Embassy might be about to get closed and all the staff given the boot over a complete breakdown in relations between the two countries.

Notably Biden is supposed to be in town later this week on Friday, so the timing would be particularly sensitive (and maybe exactly why its being done to put the wind up people).

Needs to be stressed that no one knows what this is all about. The kitchen might be having a chip pan fire or something that they are dealing with just fine without calling for fire assistance.

Every time I hear Hunter Biden, I think Mark Thatcher. Second rate arms dealer.

Tiddy re NATO I don't know what's to be done.

If nations like Poland, Denmark etc are happy to go into Ukraine ( I'm not entirely sure they are) then it's bonkers that being part of NATO would hold them back.

I fully believe NATO is an extremely useful and important alliance but surely it can't curtail individual action?

Maybe there should be a separate alliance, for the " repeatedly invaded and threatened by Russia" counties??

Oh God! Mark Thatcher!!

@RedToothBrush

Ok, someone is going to post this sooner or later cos its going viral on twitter now so let just get this out the way.

Speculation about what is happening at that the Russian Embassy in Warsaw. There is a significant amount of smoke rising from the building. Its being suggested they are burning documents like they did in Kyiv a week before the invasion.

Some people are getting a little carried away in saying that its cos Russia is just about to attack Poland. However the more level headed speculation is that the Embassy might be about to get closed and all the staff given the boot over a complete breakdown in relations between the two countries.

Notably Biden is supposed to be in town later this week on Friday, so the timing would be particularly sensitive (and maybe exactly why its being done to put the wind up people).

Needs to be stressed that no one knows what this is all about. The kitchen might be having a chip pan fire or something that they are dealing with just fine without calling for fire assistance.

Yes I saw this too. Also coincides with a lot of agitating on state media about Poland being next etc. mad, threatening language about Russia coming for the world. It's hard to believe its modern day

Al Arabiya English@AlArabiya_Eng
#Russia would only use nuclear weapons if its very existence were threatened, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says in an interview with CNN.
english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/03/22/Russia-would-only-use-nuclear-weapons-if-its-existence-were-threatened-Kremlin

What do they class as an existential threat?

Is the threat of losing in Ukraine an existential threat to Russia (remember Putin thinks he is Russia)?

@RedToothBrush

Ok, someone is going to post this sooner or later cos its going viral on twitter now so let just get this out the way.

Speculation about what is happening at that the Russian Embassy in Warsaw. There is a significant amount of smoke rising from the building. Its being suggested they are burning documents like they did in Kyiv a week before the invasion.

Some people are getting a little carried away in saying that its cos Russia is just about to attack Poland. However the more level headed speculation is that the Embassy might be about to get closed and all the staff given the boot over a complete breakdown in relations between the two countries.

Notably Biden is supposed to be in town later this week on Friday, so the timing would be particularly sensitive (and maybe exactly why its being done to put the wind up people).

Needs to be stressed that no one knows what this is all about. The kitchen might be having a chip pan fire or something that they are dealing with just fine without calling for fire assistance.

I mean logically it should be the second train of thought about break down of relations especially in light of the war crimes so getting rid of evidence.

I don't think he would be in the position to go for Poland at the moment surely? And it can't be nukes etc because why would they bother burning it!

@PaperTyger

Miss USA, I feel happy that the tide is turning and this will be a huge moral boost to Ukraine. However I feel simultaneously sick that this could be the prompt evil Putin needs to up the ante onto chemical/biological war fare.

Someone from a Nobel peace prize winning anti nuclear team was on sky this pm. describing in more eloquent detail how we are stopped from entering Ukraine purely due to the nuclear threat.
He said it's hard to win or use deplomacey with this threat.
He said he hoped all children would see how awful this is and welcome a future world without Nuclear weapons.
Personally I'd love to be able to get rid however, this Man didn't make any suggestions as to how we stop evil mad dictators/regimes from using/procuring them!

I feel the same, and as @MagicFox says, there doesn’t seem to be any light at the end of the tunnel. If Putin wins then it’ll be awful for the Ukrainian people and he may go on to invade other countries once the financial situation stabilises in Russia (if it does). And if he loses or believes he will lose, he may use a chemical or biological weapon or worse a tactical nuclear weapon and then what will happen? Not to mention the impact on those poor people.

The only good outcome is him being assassinated as far as I can see, or ousted by his inner circle.

Hunter Biden is not a minnow and if his father is scratching his arse whilst genocide occurs then NATO is a bloody joke. US is seen as the father of NATO? Why? Numbers? Number of nuclear weapons? Troops? Money??

Being "defensive" is fine until it all goes tits up. Like it has. And as if Putin doesn't have this knowledge.

If being part of NATO means we sit and watch this murder then frankly, I'm not sure what it's all about.

I'm old so bear with me. When the huge Argentina invaded the falklands and US news networks put out "the sun has set on another corner of the British Empire" like it was a done deal???? Thatcher had her faults but no bloody way was Argentina taking the Falklands. The British there didn't want it. There were more sheep on those islands than brits but was she going to be bullied? No way.

It was a horrible war and we didn't win easily. She was criticised but I like her thoughts on the Belgravia as to Putin. "Oh but it might be sailing away and we don't know if it'll turn back, fully armoured" what shall we do? What will people think??

Sink it.

Poland has said that it wants Russia kicked out of the G20.
So maybe they are being recalled?