Ukraine-invasion-part-15

[Ijsbear]

Next part.

@strawberriesarenot

This is probably a very stupid question, so please forgive. I read people are being evacuated from Mariupol. I don't understand how transport can be brought in for that, but supplies cannot. Unless they are leaving in private cars, I suppose.

I can't believe we are watching this happen.

Evacuation to Ukraine is DIY, private cars. There are reports that Russia evacuates people to their side in buses.

FT europe @ftbrussel
Ireland unveils €12mn crop-growing scheme as Ukraine war hits supply

"NEW: The UK has made 3.7 million medical donations to Ukraine since Russia's invasion nearly a month ago: UK government statement.

The donations include more than 1.5 million doses of medicine, such as pain relief, delivered yesterday.

UK medical deliveries to Ukraine include
nearly 3,000 adult resuscitators
around 160,000 wound care packs
over 300,000 sterile needles
over 32,000 packs of bandages
1,600 pieces of equipment for ventilators
220,000 packs of medicine"

Good. I feel the UK are doing as much as we can whilst tip-toeing on that line. It's not just about boots on the ground, this kind of support plus the weapons (and previous training) will make a huge difference. I hope it's enough to eventually turn the tide.

On a minuscule side note I drove to my hometown 9 miles away to visit mum. It's only a small place. Beautiful sunny, calm day and people going about their day to day lives but most of the shops and houses around the town are flying the 🇺🇦 flag on flag poles. It is inundated with blue and yellow! They are everywhere you turn. All donations from local businesses and residents for the flags have gone to humanitarian aid for Ukrainians.

Good. I feel the UK are doing as much as we can whilst tip-toeing on that line. It's not just about boots on the ground, this kind of support plus the weapons (and previous training) will make a huge difference. I hope it's enough to eventually turn the tide.
The UK has been amazing providing support to Ukraine for many, many years, and were definitely the first responders when it all escalated suddenly.

Forgive me if I'm being extremely thick here but I just don't understand how all this support other countries are giving Ukraine hasn't pissed Putin off?

Between all 30 NATO member states, we could just give Ukraine enough aid to go on forever, couldn't we?

Unless Russia do eventually get support from either Belarus or China (or somewhere else) they're bound to get flattened eventually, are they not?

Is this where potential "off ramps" come into play and why peace talks have been happening?

I remember Putin threatening to target any convoys coming in that were bringing in military aid but so far I don't think this has happened, or has it?

Perhaps this explains why Putin could potentially use chemical weapons at some point if he just seems to be getting nowhere.

I know we've got to support Ukraine and I'm glad we are but maybe I've missed something but it just doesn't make sense to me.

I see posters saying this could go on for years which I understand Ukraine could fight for years given all the support NATO is giving them but will Russia be able to go on for years? I don't see how.

Sorry if this is a silly question but if someone could give me some understanding on this, that would be great.

Hollie

Not being thick at all! To me, your question has posed the question "of course Putin knows we've done this, so why hasn't he acted on it?"

Because he won't. (I believe). I am admittedly "hawkish". I could absolutely be wrong but are we going to on for decades and decades watching atrocities like this unfold because of a threat from one man?

Natasha Bertrand
Russia has begun firing on the city of Mariupol from the Sea of Azov, according to a senior US defense official, using a group of approximately seven ships to launch attacks on the critical coastal city.
twitter.com/natashabertrand/status/1506325632237686790?s=21

Forgive me if I'm being extremely thick here but I just don't understand how all this support other countries are giving Ukraine hasn't pissed Putin off?

I think it rather has. Like all bullies he hates being stood up to.

The UK isn't perfect. And our current government are pretty dire. But if between us all we are getting Putin to blow a gasket, then it's no bad thing.

Apparently the maximum security prison Alexey Navalny will be sent to will have much harsher conditions than where he has been held up till now. I remember watching a Storyville documentary on one of those places and it was shocking just how unexceptional the crime of mass murder is in Russia. I believe Navalny's lawyers may have been arrested too.

There seems to be division on blocking Russian ships from Baltic ports. Lots of heel-dragging from Germany and Hungary in particular. Worry that Putin's vision might contain a land bridge to Kaliningrad from everyone on the Baltic but Germany.

@TiddyTidTwo

Thanks! I felt like I was asking the obvious!

I suppose it goes both ways doesn't it.

Do we call his bluff or does he call ours? No one has ever tested NATO before have they? Will he be the first to do so or we will test his bluff before then and do something? It's not something I even like to think about tbh because there would be a real possibility it would all spiral out of control.

No one has ever tested NATO before have they?

I wonder why ?

For all the frothing here. NATO was, is and has never been anything other than a defensive alliance. It's only planned and organised around defending it's borders and not projecting force beyond except as a second-strike capability.

There was someone on R4 a few weeks ago noting that it was NATOs pre-eminence as a second-strike power that had kept the USSR in check in the cold war.

@holliem91

Forgive me if I'm being extremely thick here but I just don't understand how all this support other countries are giving Ukraine hasn't pissed Putin off?

Between all 30 NATO member states, we could just give Ukraine enough aid to go on forever, couldn't we?

Unless Russia do eventually get support from either Belarus or China (or somewhere else) they're bound to get flattened eventually, are they not?

Is this where potential "off ramps" come into play and why peace talks have been happening?

I remember Putin threatening to target any convoys coming in that were bringing in military aid but so far I don't think this has happened, or has it?

Perhaps this explains why Putin could potentially use chemical weapons at some point if he just seems to be getting nowhere.

I know we've got to support Ukraine and I'm glad we are but maybe I've missed something but it just doesn't make sense to me.

I see posters saying this could go on for years which I understand Ukraine could fight for years given all the support NATO is giving them but will Russia be able to go on for years? I don't see how.

Sorry if this is a silly question but if someone could give me some understanding on this, that would be great.

Your question assumes that the military actions continue at the same rate of attrition as now.

The sad truth is that at the current intensity Ukraine will run out of civilians and cities way before either Russia or the collective West run out of ammo. I mean, it has been three weeks and look, Mariupol, the city is the size of Liverpool, almost fully gone, plausibly with tens of thousands of civilian victims - no one knows. Volnovakha (~Newry population wise), Irpin (~Worcester), Bucha (~Chichester), same.

If the war is to stay, it is likely to turn into a semi-frozen chronic conflict, moving at a much slower pace.

Biden talked about Putin having his back against the wall today

He said more likely to use chemical etc weapons due to this

I’m not sure if he will

But also reiterated was that US has said they would predicate a strong reaction from NATO

It’s a terrible game of strategy that takes consideration and resolve. I don’t know where it will go but if greater weapons were on the cards they might have been used already

@MarshaBradyo

Biden talked about Putin having his back against the wall today

He said more likely to use chemical etc weapons due to this

I’m not sure if he will

But also reiterated was that US has said they would predicate a strong reaction from NATO

It’s a terrible game of strategy that takes consideration and resolve. I don’t know where it will go but if greater weapons were on the cards they might have been used already

What kind of strong reaction? I presume they didn't specify this.

Hollie no they didn’t

The line was we shouldn’t be specific which I agree with

I have heard various people iirc say we wouldn’t react so this seemed a confirmation of an earlier message where we might / would

The sad truth is that at the current intensity Ukraine will run out of civilians and cities way before either Russia or the collective West run out of ammo.

You have made a desert and called it peace

@forinborin

I see. That makes sense

M*arsha
*
I agree it's like chess.

If Putin uses chemical weapons then it must be check-mate.

Will Putin do it? I'm 60/40 he will, thinking US is bluffing. If he doesn't I'm not sure how much more we can stomach of this genocide before public opinion puts pressure on leaders to bloody finish it.

We have enjoyed post war (caveat we know the exceptions but I mean living our western lives) for too long getting far too comfortable with individuals like Putin biding their time, not being or ever willing to be in the same mindset.

Tiddy it really is

If chemical weapons are used I can’t see how we’d back down from a statement about reacting to it

Which makes me nervous but not thinking about it too much

Well, we're not post war anymore. I pray to God our children don't experience anything like those poor children in Ukraine are experiencing. I can't look away from their suffering, it's honestly all I can think about

@MarshaBradyo

It makes me nervous too. I suppose if they haven't stated what response they'd give then it's open for them to decide at the time and it wouldn't necessarily mean the worst is about to happen? I really have no idea though.

taskandpurpose.com/news/ukraine-russia-war-army-veteran-volunteer/
An Army vet’s realization in Ukraine: ‘So horrible or heartbreaking that you can’t continue’
'Physically I feel fine, but I also feel like I have these invisible wounds on my soul.'

Le served as an M1 armor crewman from 2010 to 2017, during which he deployed to Afghanistan in 2012. In a previous story about surviving a Russian cruise missile attack on his training base, he asked to be identified by his first name only, but on Monday Le gave Task & Purpose permission to use his full name.

On Monday evening, Le was enroute to western Ukraine along with wounded comrades and other international volunteers who had resigned. He was leaving a war that he had just joined nearly two weeks ago.

“I do feel embarrassed to be leaving so soon after arriving, but have you ever seen anything so horrible and heartbreaking that you can’t continue? It was like that for me,” he said.

and

His departure coincides with upheaval within the international legion, which was intended to allow foreigners to fight the Russians. But Task & Purpose correspondent Andrew Milburn has revealed that Ukraine abruptly discharged the first volunteers who signed up for the unit after their mediocre performance in battle.

Now the Ukrainians are rethinking how they recruit foreigners by focusing on highly trained combat veterans, such as snipers, a Ukrainian general officer told Task & Purpose on condition of anonymity.

It’s clear the vetting process for the international legion leaves much to be desired. Le said he was billeted with volunteers who made dubious claims about being former special operators, yet they lacked any semblance of discipline or professionalism.

“They live the day high on amphetamines, testosterone, steroids, and who knows what other drugs they’ve smuggled into the war zone,” Le posted on Facebook. “They essentially do whatever they want and the Ukrainian military officers either allow it or are powerless to stop it.”

and

He and the other volunteers loaded up anti-tank mines and anti-armor missiles for the 8-kilometer hike to the Georgian soldier’s last fighting position, he wrote on Facebook. On the way, they encountered what appeared to be Russian soldiers. They didn’t want to fight and yelled “Glory to Ukraine,” so the two sides passed each other without incident.

Marsha

If chemical weapons are used and we don't react we are the biggest hypocrites on earth after the bullshit WMD (iraq/Blair/bush) and operation "shock and awe". Whatever, and I can say that as I did WMD training in 2003 in the British military for that absolute bloody lie. Anyway...breathe...

If we let a chemical weapon by Putin hit Ukraine and just go with more sanctions or hard words and not action, that will absolutely give Putin the green light.

Sorry if its been mentioned, but Igor twitter man #thewind of change, is posting major rebellion in the FSM ranks they are/ were, hoping for the west to push agaisnt putin to help them get the impetus to oust him.

I am embarrased and aghast that Ben Wallace was exposed to the Russian jokers and he was laying bare what he has given to Ukraine, who he speaks with and how we are running short of things!

• I did mention worries earlier about our capacity and £££ for making and supplying weapons whilst keeping protected on the home front.

Isnt there a triage for such top access? What else are the enemy getting hold of?

• re the General wearing Ukraine socks - I am worried they are getting U uniforms and posing as U Soldiers - their intellgence certainly seems to be better now ( Russias) I wonder if they have succesfully infiltated all these random fighting groups going in to help?

^^ I have actualy just read the post above which alludes to the poor vetting system for recruits!

I absolutly hate Putin and cant wait till we here the news that he has been extinsguied but I cant see the relavance of mentioning Biden but having other suspicous views?

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/feb/27/hunter-biden-joe-biden-president-business-dealings

Then came the surfacing of Hunter Biden’s missing laptop, with its library of decadent pictures and business email chains, mysteriously left at a Wilmington repair shop, which found its way to Republican political operatives including Rudy Giuliani and Steve Bannon, plus the rightwing press and the FBI

On the political flip-side, House intelligence committee chair Adam Schiff said the laptop was a “smear” from Russian intelligence, and 50 former intelligence officials said it was probably Russian disinformation. Now, however, almost no one disputes its authenticity.

In addition to Hunter Biden’s ties to Ukraine through the gas company Burisma, he has sat on the boards of BHR Partners, a private investment fund backed by a number of Chinese state entities; a hedge fund, Paradigm; a consultancy, Seneca Global Advisors; and the fundraising firm Rosemont Seneca.

Turley said: “It’s how powerful ruling elites make much of their money, and Congress has never seriously tried to crack down on it. The children and spouses of powerful leaders continue to receive windfall payments from companies and foreign interests, but we’ve never quite seen the likes of Hunter Biden’s enterprises. His contracts go beyond anything we’ve seen before.”

@Ijsbear

I'm not sure it is such a huge issue in the west, though they do sound pretty awful. (Wagner sounds worse).

But people with an agenda have pushed it as part of an agenda to say We Have The Right To Cleanse Ukraine.

It's notable that when they do talk about it, they ignore that Wagner is linked to GRU and has committed infinitely more atrocities in quite a few hotspots of the world.

So prior to the conflict Azov were a minority full on neo Nazi group attracting only 2% of the vote and getting smaller. So the Russian claim that they went into Ukraine to de nazify the country was blatantly and evidentially bolllocks.

However the irony is now that in Ukraine patriotism and nationalism have understandably grown in response to the invasion so if anything the support for the fanzine like Azov as a far right patriotic/ nationalist party will have grown plus they have now been supplied with lots of advanced modern weapons .

So the Russian invasion could end up actually creating the very thing ( ie far right Nazi influence in Ukraine) that they falsely claimed existed and used as a pretext for the invasion.

This is so messed up.