Ukraine-invasion-part-15

[Ijsbear]

Next part.

[quote sageintegrite]@forinborin you say Azov are speaking Russian - but the videos I linked show attacks on Russians and anti Russian feeling quite clearly. So are you sure about what you are saying? These are videos done by BBC and TIME.

Also the video you say you can turn on translation - in fact you can't in the video linked. And how valid is the source?[/quote]
You can turn on the translation - turn the subtitles on first, then go to the "gear" icon and change the language to English. It is not perfect, but captures the essense.

The source is the biggest newspaper in Russia, you can very easily check it. It is something that is shown as a good thing there.

On your own videos, most people from the "neo-nazi" organisations speak Russian.

The BBC Newsnight, ALL of the far-right militia guys interviewed on camera, apart from one, speak Russian.

In the Azov "children's training camp" (more like a couple of far right nutcase families camping together, to be fair), ALL children interviewed speak Russian. The Azov "war chief" interviewed about his dubious tattoos speaks Russian. The instructor with a chihuahua(?) speaks Russian.

But you surely know this?

@RedToothBrush

Wasn't cuckoo one of the songs at the putin wrestlemania rally?

No idea, I had no stomach to watch it. The song itself is okay, more or less a backyard rock anthem to non-conformism.

@EsmaCannonball

The BBC has a story up about people travelling to join the International Brigade in Ukraine, including Belarusian dissidents. Some of the people are happy to be interviewed on camera (including one guy who should have been cast as one of those Jason Momoa people in Game of Thrones) but it's making me feel uncomfortable that their faces are being shown. It feels really irresponsible.

I’ve seen other news agencies saying they’ve used fake names to protect them but then using their pictures in the article, really doesn’t sit well with me .

Some accounts of the situation in Mariupol are beyond imagination. Dark fucking days.

twitter.com/BillNeelyReport/status/1506238246178721799

(didn't quote the actual text of the tweet in case there's a thread rule about graphic eye witness accounts)

It is a cover of an old song ("Cuckoo") by Victor Tsoi, bizarrely the original is quite anti-militaristic. Think along the lines of "knocking on heaven's door".

Thanks forinborin

@MurderAtTheBeautyPageant

Some accounts of the situation in Mariupol are beyond imagination. Dark fucking days.

twitter.com/BillNeelyReport/status/1506238246178721799

(didn't quote the actual text of the tweet in case there's a thread rule about graphic eye witness accounts)

Holy fuck that’s actually horrific.

Unconfirmed but this would be a major victory

According to unconfirmed but realistic looking reports, Russian troops have got surrounded in Bucha, Irpin and Hostomel area near Kyiv, cut from supplies. If true - the biggest defeat of a Russian army until now, and Ukraine needs to start worrying about too many POWs.
twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1506265327973376009?s=21

Ukraine needs to start worrying about too many POWs

Idly speculates about whether the Geneva convention allows POWs to be sent to safer countries ? Poland perhaps ? Or Diego Garcia ?

And we should be aiming for the UN to go in.
Absolutely. And that is why Ukraine has repeatedly asked for blue helmets to be sent to Donbass, since 2014 (certainly more than 4 times in my memory). Most recently, under Zelensky. Try to guess which member of the Security Council blocked it every time?

We can't leave this to Zelensky, I really would have thought that would be obvious to everyone by now. Zelensky has also incidently made Ukraine an autocracy. And won't make a decision about ceasefire without a referendum - how is that going to be administered in a war zone where refugees are scattered far and wide?
He made the country an autocracy AND has asked for a direct democratic action at the same time? What an incompetent autocrat is he.

Surely Ascension is closer than Diego Garcia.
I wonder if it is possible.

I wonder what the lyrics say?

"Look at me, my sun,
My hand turned into a fist,
And if there is powder, give me some fire."

"Like this"

Sun is usually a term of endearment, the powder would be the pyrotechnical kind.

A bit of a dirge.

There are empty yachts drifting about

@DuncinToffee

There are empty yachts drifting about

What do you mean?

@PestorPeston

Surely Ascension is closer than Diego Garcia. I wonder if it is possible.

It's been a while since I was an expert in warfare - I had to break off studies to become an expert in viruses. However I vaguely recall the Geneva Convention requires that POWs are removed from any conflict as soon as possible, and they should be kept as safe as possible once they are hors de combat

Also they can't be made to work for the war effort.

I don't know about 3rd party - neutral - countries being allowed to house POWs. It may be a case of what is not forbidden is allowed.

The state of the situation in 2018
www.un.org/press/en/2018/sc13357.doc.htm

The Russian Federation’s belligerent behaviour against a sovereign country was a glaring example of violations of the basic principles of international law and the United Nations Charter. That country also continued to finance, arm and train militants, he said, also spotlighting the recent outcome of a Joint Investigation Team which found that the missile launcher used to shoot down Malaysia Airlines flight 17 in 2014 came from the Russian armed forces.

@forinborin

And we should be aiming for the UN to go in. Absolutely. And that is why Ukraine has repeatedly asked for blue helmets to be sent to Donbass, since 2014 (certainly more than 4 times in my memory). Most recently, under Zelensky. Try to guess which member of the Security Council blocked it every time?

We can't leave this to Zelensky, I really would have thought that would be obvious to everyone by now. Zelensky has also incidently made Ukraine an autocracy. And won't make a decision about ceasefire without a referendum - how is that going to be administered in a war zone where refugees are scattered far and wide?
He made the country an autocracy AND has asked for a direct democratic action at the same time? What an incompetent autocrat is he.

There is an interesting analysis by The Italian Institute For International Political Studies and they seemed to think a UN peace keeping mission was doomed to fail partly because of Ukraine's intransigence. It is interesting particularly this bit - thinking about any ongoing peace talks.

"Kyiv's tough diplomatic position, which implies the de facto need for military victory over the self-declared Republics and the restoration of Ukrainian statehood there without any conditions, is a cover for other motives. The Minsk agreements themselves, including autonomy for the DPR / LPR within Ukraine and an amnesty for Russia-backed fighters, are unpopular among Ukrainian political elites and civil society. The Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council openly declared that the Minsk agreements are unfavorable for Ukraine and the Deputy Minister of the Temporarily Occupied Territories considers Donbas as a cancerous tumor that can infect all of Ukraine. There are reasonable risks from the reintegration of Donetsk and Luhansk: the Ukrainian state’s weak institutions would not be able to accommodate the separatists territories; while reintegration would slow down or even render Ukraine’s course towards European and Euro-Atlantic integration impossible. Moreover, right-wing radical sentiments would likely grow in Ukraine, potentially leading to clashes between right-wing radicals against the DPR/LPR’s residents and significant expenses for the restoration of destroyed infrastructure in Donbas; while there would be a likely drop in the confidence of residents (and the electorate) of Western Ukraine towards President Zelenskiy. More importantly, Kyiv fears that with the reintegration Russia would acquire powerful leverages of influence on Ukrainian foreign and domestic policy. In a recent interview with the Ukrainian TV channel Dom, which broadcasts on the DPR / LPR, Volodymyr Zelenskiy outlined the priorities of Ukraine’s policy towards Donetsk and Luhansk: reintegration will not come soon (comparison with the Berlin Wall); Donbas will be a depressing territory; and the pro-Russian population needs to leave for Russia."

As such, the failure of the proposals for peacekeeping missions in Ukraine is caused, firstly, by the mutual distrust of the parties and the wrong timing of the proposals for the introduction of peacekeepers. Secondly, it is due to Kyiv's reluctance to implement the Minsk agreements (the declared result of the peacekeeping mission). Ultimately, a peacekeeping mission is doomed to fail when its outcome is less attractive than the status quo.

www.aljazeera.com/features/2022/3/22/we-have-one-enemy-the-belarusians-who-oppose-the-ukraine-war

well, at least some Belarussans hate Lukashenko.

There are empty yachts drifting about

What do you mean?

Seized oligarch yachts to house Russian POW's, lighthearted comment

(Reuters) - Poland said on Tuesday it had suggested to U.S. officials that Russia be excluded from the G20 group of major economies and that the suggestion had received a "positive response".

Im not actually sure this is a good idea. Chuck them out of the Security Council yeah. But they are a big economy and if there's any chance of getting Russia back from the stance of brainwashing the new generations - total isolation probably isn't the way to go.

Besided China, India or Pakistan would probably block it.

OK, so a small Italian think tank thought a few years ago that a UN peacekeeping mission would not be a success. Due to bad faith acting from Ukraine, who asked for this peacekeeping mission in the first place. I guess it is good that there is a dialogue about this topic.

@RedToothBrush

Carl Miller *@carljackmiller* When we say Kyiv is winning the information war, far too often we only mean information spaces we inhabit.

Pulling apart the most obvious RU info op to date (as we did using semantic modelling), very clear it is targeting BRICS, Africa, Asia. Not the West really at all

twitter.com/carljackmiller/status/1504896238826700800
Dead interesting thread and definitely something I've been concerned about and noted from the start...

Thanks for the link, it's something I'm concerned about as it could represent a split across the world. Not good for the future, esp dealing with climate change, and not good for Ukraine. The West needs to communicate their perspective and not let Russia control the narrative on a global scale.

Here’s some more interesting analysis by the Italian Institute For International Political Studies. That they seemed to think since the very beginning of the war, Chechen forces have been a key part of the Kremlin’s plans with Chechen hit teams hired by Russia to carry out an assassination against Ukraine’s political leadership, which failed in the first days of the invasion.

Also that during the 2014 hostilities, in the wake of Moscow’s annexation of Crimea, the Chechen leader deployed his security forces to fight alongside pro-Russian troops in Eastern Ukraine, only to then “disown” them, essentially claiming that they were volunteers having travelled there without his knowledge.

This was to reinforce the Kremlin’s narrative that the military troops sent in the Donbas were all local volunteers. By informally using the Kadyrovtsy, Putin could then claim that he had nothing to do with their deployment and rather place the blame on their “uncontrollable” will to volunteer to active conflict zones. This enables Russia to downplay and gloss over its controversial ‘security’ operations (including illegal practices ) in conflict zones and attribute the actions of Chechen militants to their culture of warfare.

More here: www.ispionline.it/en/pubblicazione/why-putin-turned-chechen-warlord-kadyrov-intimidate-ukraine-34206

What is even more interesting is just how incredibly persistent and skilled Putin/Moscow is at employing strategic misinformation and outright deception to try to turn the narrative against whoever Russia is oppressing/attacking/killing

Is there a better term other than PsychOps for what they do? Gaslighting on a national scale. Maybe it’s to resolve their own cognitive dissonance for murdering infants, children, women, men and the elderly of an entire country? Because no one here believes it.

Well I’ll amend it to no one on MN believes it, but seems Ukraine needs to explain what’s happening to the wider world about the actions of a murdering neighbour on a sovereign country. Clever attempts to destabilise the global order even more by inflaming authoritarian violent movements.

@DGRossetti

Ukraine needs to start worrying about too many POWs

Idly speculates about whether the Geneva convention allows POWs to be sent to safer countries ? Poland perhaps ? Or Diego Garcia ?

The GC states (I paraphrase) that POWs should not be held in areas which are combat areas where they can be exposed to fire.

Not sure if there are any provisions with regard to being moved out of country but of course that did happen in WW2 (e.g. German POWs transported to Canada).

If you like flightradar, you'll love

www.bellingcat.com/resources/2022/02/11/radar-interference-tracker-a-new-open-source-tool-to-locate-active-military-radar-systems/