Ukraine-invasion-part-15

[Ijsbear]

Next part.

@RedToothBrush

From the above:

Per a senior US defense official, the US "is not standing in the way" of a 3rd country giving #Ukraine #MiG29s/fixed-wing fighters

Is that a 'the MiGs are going in, but we didn't facilitate it, but we have reassessed the situation and now think that actually its not going to cause as many problems as we thought' moment?

I read it as “we’re not the bad guys here, Poland are all talk and no action” but I prefer your interpretation.

Apologies if this article in The Atlantic by Eliot Cohen has already been posted. Had a quick scan but couldn't see it.

Why Can’t the West Admit That Ukraine Is Winning?

www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/ukraine-is-winning-war-russia/627121/

'As for the endgame, it should be driven by an understanding that Putin is a very bad man indeed, but not a shy one. When he wants an off-ramp, he will let us know. Until then, the way to end the war with the minimum of human suffering is to pile on.'

@Alexandra2001

It seems we mutually accept each others passion but then mutually slap each other down?

Or perhaps I slapped you down in your Passion's to show you what it felt like?

Because When one is throwing musing s out there it's irritating when posters are condensing and patronising, slapping people down.

No one.
Not one person on here knows more than anyone else, they really don't.

A blind soothsayer in the Himalayas has as much sense as to what's going on as we do.

So some people should reign in their big boot's quite frankly and be respectful.

And for those on twitter: twitter.com/CivMilAir/status/1505957365971144709

Yes its real. I've checked

The ingeniousness of people warms my heart.

@Ijsbear
Interesting, so Russia is trying to push Zelensky into peace talks the independent mediator said that both sides were working all hours to reach agreement, there were working groups, this has been the case for days, there was a great deal of effort being made both sides, so no. Zelensky has basically agreed the points on the table, but he is not finalising the points. So - his teams are working all hours, they are not far apart but it hasn't been formally agreed, it is close but not agreed. It might be that Zelensky wants the US on board? Zelensky has asked for the peace talks so definitely no pressure there. This is really important so it might be worth you looking into it? If you are going to spend most of your time on this thread, reporting something positive and about what is missing (US input? I don't know) is probably a worthwhile thing to do.

It's a clear concern you have for the people of the US, Russia, Asia, Africa and the lack of food they might have I do, and for my own dc in fact, I am surprised you are not concerned.

Perhaps Russia could withdraw and then there wouldn't be a problem the problem is far more complex than that - Russia invaded because of specific issues - Azoz and anti Russian feeling in Ukraine, and NATO - realistically you are looking at these points being agreed and seeing it from the other side, it seems odd to me that when the parties are so close, it is not yet agreed.

Do you not agree with me about the seriousness of Azoz and that international input is needed? If Russia totally withdrew today, what do you think the situation would be in Ukraine, realistically? You have an armed Azoz, who before the war said they intended to take over administration of the country. Do you agree that this is potentially really serious?

Do you think continuing with sanctions with Russia after ceasefire is the right way of doing things? Would a stable Russia not be better than an unstable Russia? If Russia gets help from other countries, is the US going to sanction them indefinitely, while doing deals with Iran re oil?

What do you think? Again, if you are spending a lot of time on this it is worth you reading up on it and reporting back? It might be hugely beneficial to others.

@RedToothBrush

I keep wondering what is their limit to how much kit they use in this war - in terms of men I can’t see there being a limit.

If you are talking about flying military planes, isn't the limit about men still too? You can't just fly them without training.

Ahh sorry that’s me just writing terribly. Men on the ground not in the air (like you said will actually need trained people for that!) but I’ve wondered it for a while. At what point do Russia have to say we’ve gone through too much we’re leaving ourselves Vunerable. Same could be said for those providing Ukraine too.

If Russia totally withdraw today?

What do we think would happen??

^No one.
Not one person on here knows more than anyone else, they really don't.^

Experience in training, research, historical knowledge, military / economic / political experience and temperamental ability to extract the core threads out of a situation and extrapolate make a difference to how good someone's post is though.

"good" being defined as informative and reasoned discussion, as this series of threads was originally meant to be and still is at its best.

Thanks for sharing @MurderAtTheBeautyPageant … I enjoyed his one from last week too re the American fear of escalation.

@PaperTyger

If Russia totally withdraw today?

What do we think would happen??

Hmm that’s a difficult one… maybe people would stop becoming injured or dying? Cities no longer being turned into rubble? Families able to be reunited? Food and water and health care to those who need it? Wonder what sageintegrite thinks would happen?

Unfortunately for the people of Ukraine I doubt that’s something we can expect to happen anytime soon. If Russia has a significant majority of their ballistic missile capability available...more than half of their air-launched cruise missile capability available then this war could continue for quite some time.

That flightradar thing is brilliant.

Op.

No
One here knows how this will pan out.

Being able to extrapolate or whatever doesn't give anyone the right to be rude to others.

We can share every tweet, share And read thousands of articles, the specialists here can also share but at the end of the day we are in the dark just as much as a hermit in the Himalayas.
No one knows how it will pan out.

@DrBlackbird

I'm hoping your response was tongue in cheek because my reply was to sagein above who actually asked that question?

@Ijsbear

That flightradar thing is brilliant.

People have been skywriting in that manner for a while but usually PR/advertising purposes so it’s heartening to see how the medium was put to use today.

Can’t help thinking if it happened in the UK somebody in the CAA would be checking to see if they could collar those involved for a breach of some rule of the air/Air Navigation Order..can’t see the Polish authorities being too fussed.

Ukraine is winning

www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/ukraine-is-winning-war-russia/627121/

BBC reporting that the Ukrainians may have had a military presence in the shopping mall in Kyiv that was bombed last night. So, were they observed by Russians or Russian drones, or was their position given away by spies?

Samuel Ramani
BREAKING: A senior NATO official warns Belarus is "preparing the environment to justify a Belarusian offensive against Ukraine and the imminent deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus"
The Guardian quotes the NATO intelligence official here:
twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1505964273117417477?t=A4QQZCnahaEc_3_oxbwsHg&s=19

mm they've been talking about a Belorussian military movement into Ukraine for a couple days now :s

I came across this interview and it did explain some things. Long but worth watching

[quote AlecTrevelyan006]Ukraine is winning

www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/ukraine-is-winning-war-russia/627121/[/quote]
Great article. On the last thread I linked to an interview with a retired Russian foreign minister who said that Putin would find his own way to end this, but not until he smelled defeat. I guess the question now is how long until Putin figures out that his advisors are blowing sunshine up his skirt and that he might actually lose in Ukraine, and lose so badly that it can't be denied.

Szabolcs Panyi @panyiszabolcs
❌🇷🇺 Wow: Hungary would veto EU sanctions against Russian gas transfers, a no-fly zone over Ukraine, and even an EU peacekeeping mission.

Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó - a receipient of the Order of Friendship, one of the Kremlin's highest honours - called these a "red line".

Orbán's foreign minister: “An agreement regarding possible EU sanctions against Russian energy supplies or their interruption will most likely not be reached (...) We will not support sanctions that could pose a risk to energy supplies for Hungary.”

Besides sanctions on Russian gas, Hungary would also veto a no-fly zone & an EU peacekeeping mission. MFA Péter Szijjártó "made it clear that maintaining a no-fly zone would mean an air war & sending troops to Ukraine as peacekeepers would also risk war."

Absolutely no military support for Ukraine from Viktor Orbán's government:

"We reject proposals that risk either an air war or an extended war on the ground (...) Hungary does not supply weapons to Ukraine, and lethal weapons must not cross the country."

Here's my previous thread on how Viktor Orbán's government is continuously favoring the Kremlin's interest over NATO, EU, and sometimes even Hungarian national interests. And these are only the examples we at @direkt36 have uncovered over the years!
twitter.com/panyiszabolcs/status/1499409163797082112

Let's not be naive: a no-fly zone over Ukraine is a red line for many other EU member states as well. However, Orbán is actually taking pride in loudly opposing all kinds of help to Ukraine.

There are many who piss in the swimming pool but Hungary does it from the diving board.

@EsmaCannonball

BBC reporting that the Ukrainians may have had a military presence in the shopping mall in Kyiv that was bombed last night. So, were they observed by Russians or Russian drones, or was their position given away by spies?

Sources elsewhere are carrying video that the Russians have released that seems to have been taken from a UAV (drone) some time before the attack.

It appears to show a Ukrainian forces BM-21 (truck mounted multi tube rocket launcher) parked adjacent to the Mall car park.

Unfortunately it looks like it is possible the Ukrainians may have been got caught out by Russian aerial surveillance.

Jennifer Rankin @JenniferMerode
EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell says he is "convinced that Putin is using refugees as a tool", adding that Russia hasn't destroyed transport infrastructure. "We are ready to help all of them," but adds it is an asymmetric burden.

Martin Kragh @MartinKragh1
Russia’s Ministry of Defence here admits 9,861 dead, and 16,153 wounded, soldiers, respectively. A drastic upward revision.
www.kp.ru/online/news/4672522/

Here is an important caveat. We need to confirm this source, although KP is a mouthpiece of the Russian government,

Anton Barbashin @ABarbashin
As @kirlant points either KP website has been hacked or someone is about to get fired.
No official data of this sort was announced.

Kevin Rothrock @KevinRothrock
There was nothing in today’s MoD briefing like this. Seems like either a typo or another Ovsyannikova in the wings.

Martin Kragh @MartinKragh1
The typically well-informed @KevinRothrock casts doubt on veracity of claims by KP, quoted above. Some sort of mistake has been made: either accidental publication of information supposed to be secret, or fake information published for unknown reason.

Whhooooppps!

And

Victor Kovalenko @MrKovalenko
A former internal affairs minister of #Ukraine @AvakovArsen shared the intercepted Russian military summary for March 18: Rus. Army troops killed 12,814. Private company Liga (former Vagner) troops killed 4,451. Total number ofservice members killed at war in Ukraine: 17,265.

Well.