Ukraine-invasion-part-15

[Ijsbear]

Next part.

In fact, I'm not quite sure why there isn't more worry from Black Sea countries about how Russia is going to behave or use the sea to its strategic advantage if it gains Crimea, Odesa and Mariupol. It's already disrupted shipping and sunk ships in the area.

IIRC, Turkey can legally block entry to the Black Sea unless a ship is returning to its base.

It already has belatedly exercised this right under the Montreux Convention, so Russia can't flood the Black Sea with more military vessels - although it had already sent in plenty. According to this article, it refused entry to three (out of four) Russian military vessels as they weren't normally stationed in the Black Sea (with the implication that the 4th vessel suddenly didn't feel quite such an urgent need to "go home").

On the negative side, it means no one else can send in military vessels either, so the Russian ships already there are pretty much unfettered in what they can do

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukraine-war/Why-can-Turkey-block-the-Bosporus-5-things-to-know

@DGRossetti

How do you mean by "sheer grunt" and could you expand a little bit more in the blend of infrastructure, institutions and resources maybe please?

Basically it's why when a storm hits the UK - unpleasant as it is for those affected - it's possible to simply clean up, patch up,. and move on. You can't get to that position in a few weeks, months or even years. It's a generational shift.

It's why the UKs covid response - whatever you may think of it - was able to throw up Nightingale hospitals, and vaccinate an entire nation almost as a matter of course. That's what "first world" countries do. Hell it's why they are "first world" countries.

Interestingly, the UK is made up of four "first world" countries.

So that would mean the capability must depend on infrastructure (the roads to get there), the institutions (council to report fallen trees to, the fire brigade / heavy pulling machines to remove them plus ambulances if necessary) and resources (fire trucks, giant saws etc)

Plus good training! ... maybe the 4th pillar of the Effectiveness structure.

It implies that a really effective 'grunt' ability needs relatively small localized command centres that are relatively self sufficient in all 4 areas plus the ability to deliver trucks etc from a factory elsewhere. A mix of whole-country system and localized nodes working together, if that makes sense.

So Russia lacks that to some degree?

Russian troops just follow orders.

That sums up a number of things.

They don't think critically and they can't easily adapt. Showing initiative makes you a threat to your superiors.

Ukrainians have nicknamed them orcs, in part because of this institutionalised stupidity and brutishness.

Ukraine is saying that over 2000 children have been deported from Donbas to Russia. Are these children with family? Have they been sent to camps? Is this going to end up like the Nazis seizing racially pure children and giving them to German parents?

Zachary Cohen @ZcohenCNN
NEW: The US has been unable to determine if Russia has designated a top, theatre-wide military commander responsible for leading the war in Ukraine, multiple sources tell me & @KatieBoLillis

edition.cnn.com/2022/03/21/politics/us-russia-top-military-commander-ukraine-war/index.html
Who is Russia's top field commander in Ukraine? The US isn't sure.

The US has been unable to determine if Russia has designated a military commander responsible for leading the country's war in Ukraine, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter — something that current and former defense officials say is likely a key contributor to the apparent clumsiness and disorganization of the Russian assault.

^Without a top, theater-wide commander on the ground in or near Ukraine, units from different Russian military districts operating in different parts of Ukraine appear to be competing for resources rather than coordinating their efforts, according to two US defense officials.
Units participating in different Russian offensives across Ukraine have failed to connect, these sources say, and in fact, appear to be acting independently with no overarching operational design.^

and

And while it is possible that Russia has quietly designated a top commander to oversee the invasion — even if the US has been unable to identify that individual — the state of combat operations would suggest "he's inept," according to Hertling.

Putin doesn't trust a single general with this responsibility enough. The army must not have too much power or its a threat to him.

Or the General in charge is simply dead.

But very bizarre.

.

Jack Detsch @JackDetsch
NEW: Russia has launched more than 300 sorties into Ukraine the last 24 hours: senior U.S. defense official.

🇷🇺 sorties are not "venturing very far and very long" into 🇺🇦 airspace, the official said. Russia still has more than 60 percent of fixed wing and rotary wing capability

juswar @juswar777
In other words Russia has lost 40% of its air combat capacity. Incredible losses.

Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 @DefenceHQ
UKrainian Defence Minister @oleksiireznikov met with UK Defence Secretary @BWallaceMP in London today.

They discussed the resistance and bravery of Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression and the UK’s steadfast support, including the ongoing supply of weapons and humanitarian aid.

Oleksii Reznikov @oleksiireznikov (Ukrainian Minister of Defence)
Ukraine government official
^During 25 days Ukraine is fighting with Russian war criminals. In these days we destroyed almost 1500 armored vehicles,500 tanks of Russian terrorists.Part of them-thanks to UK humanitarian aid. I
personally thank @BWallaceMP for the courage & morale of UK,which contrasts with some of other partners^

WOW! No mincing of words there.

Jack Detsch
@JackDetsch
·
1h
U.S. is talking to allies about providing Ukraine with long-range air defense platforms: senior U.S. defense official.

Slovakia said last week it was willing to provide Russian-made S-300 missile defense systems to Ukraine, but 🇷🇺 has threatened to attack the deliveries.

Sky News reporting that Ukraine has retaken Makaryv, which is potentially significant as it's strategically important for road access to Kyiv.

@RedToothBrush

Jack Detsch *@JackDetsch* NEW: Russia has launched more than 300 sorties into Ukraine the last 24 hours: senior U.S. defense official.

🇷🇺 sorties are not "venturing very far and very long" into 🇺🇦 airspace, the official said. Russia still has more than 60 percent of fixed wing and rotary wing capability

juswar @juswar777
In other words Russia has lost 40% of its air combat capacity. Incredible losses.

I keep wondering what is their limit to how much kit they use in this war - in terms of men I can’t see there being a limit. 40% if true is a substantial amount of air combat equipment. They seem to be streaming through other equipment shells etc. surely they must have a hard limit that they can commit otherwise they would be leaving themselves Vunerable to an attack at some point in the future before they can restock? I can’t see that many countries supplying them in the near future at least.

Jeff Seldin
@jseldin
NEW: "Not a whole lot of changes" on the ground by #Russia forces in #Ukraine, per a senior US defense official

"We have seen some increased naval activity in the #BlackSea" per official, who says it may be linked to some of the shelling in & around #Odesa

More: #Russia has now launched +1,100 missile at #Ukraine

Use of #hypersonics?

"It's certainly possible" per a senior US defense official, calling use of such a missile a "head scratcher"

"There's not a whole lot of if practicality to it"

#Russia|n use of a hypersonic missile - "It could be they're running low on precision guided munitions...it could be they're trying to send a message to the West" per a senior US defense official

Says US cannot confirm or refute the Russian claims

NEW: #Russia classified communications faltering

"We do blv they [#Russia] are having command & control problems" per a senior US defense official "They just weren't fully prepared for operations of this intensity, for so long, on this many lines of attack"

More: "We're seeing them [#Russia] use a lot more unclassified communications..." due to problems with their classified communication systems, per a senior US defense official

#Russia-"They haven't achieved anything in terms of what we assessed to be their objectives" per a senior US defense official

Calls #Moscow's use of long-range fires (missiles/shelling) a "desperate attempt by them to gain some momentum" bcs "they are stuck where they are"

"What we're seeing is a near desperate attempt by the #Russia|ns to gain some momentum" in #Ukraine, per a senior US defense official

Says some of Russia's recent actions could be attempt to create leverage for negotiations

"It is very clear that the #Ukrainians are showing no signs of stopping their resistance...no signs of slowing their attacks on the Russians" per a senior US defense official

#Belarus - US is NOT seeing any indications that Belarus is positioning troops or making moves in preparation to send troops into #Ukraine, per a senior US defense official

Update: first shipments of the latest US $800 million security assistance to #Ukraine -which includes switchblade drones- shud be arriving soon, per a senior US defense official

"The wheels are moving very quickly"

Per a senior US defense official, the US "is not standing in the way" of a 3rd country giving #Ukraine #MiG29s/fixed-wing fighters

US-#Russia deconfliction line - "we're still testing it every day" but senior US defense official says they are not aware of any information being passed or the need to pass any information

"It works," official says

#Russia|n drone that crashed in #Poland-"We don't blv it was an intentional act" per a senior US defense official

"The Russian lost the data link w/that drone..." official adds describing it as an accident

#Russia|n combat power in #Ukraine "at just below 90%" per a senior US defense official

"They're expending an awful lot but you have to remember they also built up an awful lot"

Official adds #Moscow continues to discuss bringing in reinforcements but no signs yet of movement

"Vast majority" of #Russia's combat power arrayed vs #Ukraine before the invasion is still available to #Putin, per a senior US defense official

No communication between @SecDef
& his #Russia|n counterpart, per a senior US defense official

NEW: #Russia-"Clearly they're expending munitions, a lot of munitions" per a senior US defense official

BUT "They have a significant majority of their ballistic missile capability available...more than half of their air-launched cruise missile capability available"

NEW: US seeing failures w/#Russia's precision guided munitions - "a not insignificant number of failures"

"They're failing to launch or they're failing to hit the target or they're failing to detonate on contact" per a senior US defense official

"Not clear" that #Russia|n activity in the northern #BlackSea is a prelude to an amphibious landing/attack, per a senior US defense official

NEW: #Russia still unable to establish air superiority over #Ukraine due to "a very creative air defense posture by the #Ukrainians" per a senior US defense official

NEW: Air war over #Ukraine increasing over last 24-48 hours, per a senior US defense official

#Russia conducted +300 sorties in that time period, but US still seeing "risk aversion by a lot of Russian pilots" who are not flying only briefly into #Ukraine, per official

US says anecdotal evidence continues to come in "that they [#Russia] are suffering from morale issues inside the ranks" per a senior US defense official

"They did not expect this level of resistance. Some of them were not told what they were going to be doing inside #Ukraine"

#Ukraine 's forces-"This stiff defense that they're putting up did not just happen by accident" per a senior US defense official

"It was not just the stuff [security assistance" add the official "It was the training that was done" over the past 8 years

US still talking to allies & partners about getting #Ukraine "long-range air defense systems that they can use" per a senior US defense official

NEW: #Ukraine still has about 90% of its combat power available, thanks to int'l community helping to replenish it "in real time" per a senior US defense official

#Mariupol remains isolated - "almost all the way around" per a senior US defense official

#Russia likely trying to take the city as part of a bid "to cut off the extreme east of #Ukraine" & prevent Ukrainian forces there from shifting to defend #Kyiv, per official

NEW: Despite threats, NO #Russia|n attacks so far on ground shipments of security assistance to #Ukraine, per a senior US defense official

From the above:

Per a senior US defense official, the US "is not standing in the way" of a 3rd country giving #Ukraine #MiG29s/fixed-wing fighters

Is that a 'the MiGs are going in, but we didn't facilitate it, but we have reassessed the situation and now think that actually its not going to cause as many problems as we thought' moment?

I keep wondering what is their limit to how much kit they use in this war - in terms of men I can’t see there being a limit.

If you are talking about flying military planes, isn't the limit about men still too? You can't just fly them without training.

Colin Blackwell @CDHBlackwell
Another crucial point is that in UA political power has now passed to a post-Soviet generation while in RU it is still with those in their 70’s and late 60s who came to awareness during the Soviet Union.

This is probably a significant thing...

Slovakia said last week it was willing to provide Russian-made S-300 missile defense systems to Ukraine, but 🇷🇺 has threatened to attack the deliveries

If Russia could, it would destroy the deliveries of hand held weapons already.
Does Putin have the right to dictate to the 'West ?

We can create an effective NFZ by supplying the Ukrainians with air defence systems, can also provide anti ship weapons too in order to prevent Odesa becoming the next Mariupol.

www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/3/21/russia-labels-facebook-parent-company-meta-extremist
Russia labels Facebook parent company Meta ‘extremist’
The ban on Meta’s activity will not affect the company’s WhatsApp messenger service, says Russian court.

Well no. Of course not. How else will Russian troops in Ukraine talk to each other otherwise?

Losing whatsapp really is the end of civilisation isn't it?

Danielle Sheridan @SheridanDani
Ben Wallace gives press conf with Ukrainian counterpart Oleksii Reznikov. Reznikov says Britain was 1st to provide them with “serious weapons that have increased our defence capabilities”. “Your role is special,” he says.

I'm surprised the drone things aren't there already actually.
Let's hope they get in soon?

The black sea.legalities are absolutely astonishing!

Putin can run amok there!

A few Italian politicians are boycotting Zelenskyy's address to the Italian parliament tomorrow. Some of them are saying it's unfair unless Putin is given the same opportunity to speak. Although the amount of MPs doing this are far in the minority, Italy is possibly going to prove a weak link when it comes to sanctions. Quite breathtaking if Italy manages to wobble all over the place through three world wars.

Ugh, that's a nasty thought esma

Apparently the USA is sending their 'small' collection of old Russian military equipment over to Ukraine. Not sure what that's about! I suppose it depends on how small it is.

I was talking with DH about wheat prices the other day and he mentioned that last time they spiked, it was the Arab Spring. The article was interesting, thanks RTB. I also think the war in Ukraine is going to distract us from dealing with climate change, as Covid has already. I expected wars about resources like food and energy re: climate change in the future, but I didn't expect them so soon. It feels like a turning point in history, I don't think it will be a nuclear war but things are changing geopolitically. Someone posted a link to an article revisiting the Limits to Growth (report from the 70s) and it would peak around 2020 and then decline steeply.

@PaperTyger

I'm surprised the drone things aren't there already actually. Let's hope they get in soon?

The black sea.legalities are absolutely astonishing!

Putin can run amok there!

A few days ago you did have a go at me when i suggested that we should be patrolling in the Black Sea though you did appreciate my passion lol

Turkey is a NATO member, i'm sure the Americans could get any bar to going in there lifted.

Quite incredible that there isn't a single NATO/US ship in the Black Sea (international waters) the nearest carrier fleet is 1000 miles away, despite ships owned/chartered by NATO members attacked/blocked.

NATO seems very quiet on the role of its naval capability.

Maybe it would be good if the joint US/Nato Maritime command could explain why they are no where to be seen.

Flyscanner people.

www.flightradar24.com/SPWIX/2b37678f

Fuck Putin with Penis

And for those on twitter:
twitter.com/CivMilAir/status/1505957365971144709

Yes its real. I've checked.